Matthew Wiley strongly recommended fading Nico Echavarria for DFS and betting at the Houston Open, noting Echavarria's recent rounds were filled with wildly inconsistent play. Wiley characterized Echavarria's recent performances as exceptionally volatile, highlighting his disastrous Sunday round where he quickly lost his lead after tied atop the leaderboard. Given his extreme driver inaccuracy and erratic emotional state, Wiley stated Echavarria's form was so chaotic and unreliable he could not endorse backing him in any capacity this week.

Matthew Wiley labels Alejandro Tosti as his 'crazy pick' for the week, suggesting Tosti as a speculative but intriguing DFS and betting longshot despite clear volatility. Wiley bases this recommendation purely on a hunch, acknowledging the inherent risk associated with Tosti given his recent sharp struggles yet still seeing upside in Tosti's aggressive style of play matched to this course's layout. Though calling it somewhat humorous as a 'PCP' type of pick due to its boldness, Wiley still sees actionable value at minimal DFS pricing and significant betting odds for Tosti.

Matthew Wiley endorses Min Woo Lee strongly this week, particularly because he anticipates Lee will benefit from lower-than-expected DFS ownership due to the high costs attracting most DFS players to Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. While acknowledging that sabersim's sub-1% ownership projection for Lee is probably inaccurate, Wiley still sees Lee as significantly under-owned. Citing Lee’s outstanding overall game and excellent fit for the course, Wiley believes this ownership uncertainty makes Lee an even more attractive DFS selection compared to more chalky higher-priced golfers.

Matthew Wiley supports Scottie Scheffler as a strong DFS pivot this week, taking a contrarian stance by favoring him over Rory McIlroy. Wiley predicts this is the exact week Scheffler puts it all together, emphasizing Scheffler's strong track record in Texas and his two runner-up finishes at this event in the past. Scheffler’s consistent performance at this venue and relative low ownership expectations compared to Rory are central to Wiley’s optimistic perspective. He further states that if Scheffler does not produce a top-10 finish this week—considering his Texas roots and previous close calls—it would warrant serious concern about his current game.

Matthew Wiley remains intrigued by Danny Walker as a DFS sleeper, pointing to Walker's visually appealing ball-striking and swing. After initially drawing attention at THE PLAYERS Championship due to his smooth swing mechanics and hometown narrative, Walker's true potential remains untapped in DFS contests. While acknowledging volatility—including a poor performance at Valspar—Wiley still sees potential upside given Walker's strong fundamental swing, making him worth consideration as a speculative DFS dart-throw.

Matthew Wiley identified Mackenzie Hughes as a leverage opportunity in DFS, highlighting Hughes' strong track record at the Houston Open with two top-15 finishes in his last three appearances. Wiley especially praised Hughes' reliable lag putting prowess—an essential skill at Memorial Park's large and complex greens. Hughes' notably poor driving accuracy is less penalized here, enhancing his scoring capability. Considering these factors, Wiley confidently labelled Hughes an under-the-radar golfer who can deliver quality DFS returns this weekend.

Matthew Wiley spotlighted Alejandro Tosti as an intriguing low-cost contrarian pick and longshot bet for the Houston Open, priced at 200-to-1 odds. Despite recent struggles, including two consecutive missed cuts, Wiley noted Tosti's aggressive style of play as a distinct advantage at Memorial Park. Tosti impressively combines major distance off the tee with very strong around-the-green skills, essential attributes needed to succeed on this course layout. Wiley recognized risks given recent poor performances but believes Tosti's style and ideal skill set provide realistic upside and justify exposure at minimal DFS pricing and significant betting odds.

Matthew Wiley strongly recommended Rory McIlroy as an appealing DFS target this week at the Houston Open, primarily due to his appealing salary discount compared to Scottie Scheffler. Despite emphasizing both top golfers' motivation to win heading into Augusta and their head-to-head competitiveness, Wiley confidently stated Rory should be the favorite at this event considering his elite skill set: powerful driving, exceptional short game, and elite lag putting. Given Rory's demonstrated top-form capabilities and approximately $1,000 DraftKings cost savings compared to Scheffler, Wiley views taking Rory here as a clear value opportunity for DFS lineups.

Matthew Wiley advises fading Jake Knapp this week after significant disappointment last week. Previously in great form, Knapp's primary strengths—the approach game and elite putting—suddenly disappeared at his last event, raising serious questions about his reliability. Although Knapp is long off the tee, accuracy isn't his strong suit, intensifying risk at a challenging setup in Houston where mistakes get amplified quickly. Wiley concludes that Knapp's abrupt statistical downturn introduces too much volatility to confidently back him in DFS or betting formats this week.

Matthew Wiley signaled strong DFS and betting value on Thomas Detry at the Houston Open, highlighting Detry's impressive tee-to-green performance at Valspar last week despite performing poorly with his putter. With Detry showcasing excellent iron play and approach metrics, Wiley sees potential for positive putting regression, believing he's unlikely to repeat the poor putting performance. This makes Detry an intriguing and actionable option for fantasy lineups and betting markets going into the Houston tournament.

Matthew Wiley expressed confidence in Collin Morikawa given the historical trend at recent THE PLAYERS Championships of winners who possess elite championship pedigree, notably having already won events earlier in the year and being balanced in their statistical profile. Given Morikawa’s recent success and established status as a major champion, Wiley reasoned that Morikawa matches the profile of successful recent winners who excel in strokes gained across the board, making him an attractive betting and DFS target this week at TPC Sawgrass.

Matthew Wiley warned against betting on Justin Thomas to win THE PLAYERS Championship, calling it a 'disease' because of Thomas' consistent underperformance relative to market expectations. Wiley recounted a recent experience where he bet Thomas while he was in third place mid-event, only to watch him plummet to 50th within a short span, illustrating the volatility and disappointment associated with Thomas as a betting option. Wiley stressed Thomas does not represent good betting value at his current inflated price (+2500), and urged bettors to avoid the frustration associated with backing him.

Matthew Wiley recommended betting Hideki Matsuyama over Justin Thomas due to better betting value at current odds (+3300). Wiley compared Matsuyama (+3300) directly with Thomas (+2500), pointing out they represent the same betting opportunity profile—both aggressive golfers who have shown the capacity to excel at TPC Sawgrass. He stated explicitly he would prefer Matsuyama at the longer odds, noting Thomas' betting at shorter odds has become increasingly frustrating, further supporting Matsuyama as the smarter, value-based play.

Matthew Wiley highlighted Sepp Straka as a strong value betting pick for THE PLAYERS Championship, currently listed at +5000 odds. Wiley stressed the importance of selecting players who enter this event in excellent form and possess a very balanced statistical profile, noting that recent winners like McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, and Cam Smith averaged significant strokes gained across all major categories including off-the-tee (+3), approach (+6.5 to +7), around-the-green (+2.5), and putting (+3). He specifically pointed to players like Straka as further down the betting board options who match this balanced, well-rounded profile, making them valuable picks relative to their odds.

Matthew Wiley advocated for Nick Taylor as an under-the-radar DFS option at THE PLAYERS Championship, noting his surprisingly low projected ownership under 5% despite strong recent performance, including a victory already this season. Wiley underscored Taylor's impressive rank—sixth overall—in his projection model, emphasizing a clear value discrepancy given Taylor’s ability. Wiley strongly recommended utilizing Taylor’s upside and relatively low ownership as leverage in DFS tournament lineups this week.

Matthew Wiley endorsed Joel Dahmen as a strong DFS play, specifically for his cut-making stability at THE PLAYERS Championship. Although acknowledging Dahmen's struggles on the greens, Wiley notes Dahmen has been striking the golf ball exceptionally well recently, including at tournaments like the Genesis Invitational. Wiley emphasized the importance of limiting volatility, highlighting Dahmen as a golfer likely to keep it in play and reliably make the cut, thus providing lineup stability and a higher likelihood of securing six-for-six cuts through the weekend.

Matthew Wiley identified Daniel Berger as an appealing DFS leverage option at THE PLAYERS Championship despite his elevated price in the 9k range on DraftKings. Wiley highlighted Berger's impressive final 54 holes of strong ball striking during his last event, ranking top-four in strokes gained during that span. He pointed out Berger's strong historical performances at this course and emphasized his excellent current form, suggesting this combination makes him a solid candidate for a strong week despite projected low ownership around 6%. Wiley mentions that even minimal exposure in tournaments would significantly surpass field ownership, making Berger a valuable DFS leverage play.

Matthew Wiley recommended caution against rostering Tommy Fleetwood at THE PLAYERS Championship, critiquing his overly conservative playing style. Wiley described Fleetwood as unable to consistently deliver aggression required at this event, frequently settling for conservative outcomes leading to missed scoring opportunities on critical holes. He humorously portrayed Fleetwood's play as frustratingly consistent in narrowly missing birdies, persistently settling into less aggressive, locking-in-a-safe-par tendencies. Wiley sees this conservative trait limiting Fleetwood's upside and potential ROI in DFS contests despite appealing statistical form.

Matthew Wiley pointed to Viktor Hovland as a promising bounce-back candidate at THE PLAYERS Championship, despite missing the cut recently. Wiley emphasized that Hovland's underlying iron numbers remained strong even as his putter let him down. He noted that Hovland maintained excellent ball-striking metrics, signaling a quick turnaround potential if he finds any improvement on the greens. While acknowledging his downbeat demeanor, Wiley believes Hovland's iron consistency provides significant upside this week, particularly at a discounted ownership due to recent results and higher price.

Matthew Wiley is bullish on Scottie Scheffler at THE PLAYERS Championship due to his impressive recent form, emphasizing Scheffler's elite numbers off the tee at difficult recent measuring-stick tournaments like the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Wiley states elite tee-to-green consistency is a fundamental requirement this week, and Scheffler currently ranks among the top three best drivers in the world. Despite difficult scoring conditions at API, Scheffler's metrics remained elite, underscoring his strong positional advantage this week where aggressive, accurate driving is vital.

Matthew Wiley strongly advocated for playing Hideki Matsuyama at THE PLAYERS Championship, pointing out his consistent elite performance at elite venues. Wiley highlighted Matsuyama's aggression as a key benefit at TPC Sawgrass, as the course tends to reward attacking players like Matsuyama. Wiley cited Matsuyama's robust track record here, including top-ten finishes and a memorable course-record-tying round prior to the event cancellation during COVID. With projected ownership around a low 7%, Wiley sees high leverage, asserting that despite recent quiet results, Matsuyama maintains the talent and course fit to significantly outperform expectations this week.