For the final leg at +190, Matty Betts predicted Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO (or DQ). Betts highlighted that Desmond Day Ridder was wobbled repeatedly by Gerald Meerschaert and both of his MMA losses came via knockout; he has never been submitted despite 14 career submission victories. Nickal’s camp is deliberately matching him with grapplers to build confidence in his striking, making a stand-up finish the developmental goal. Betts added that Day Ridder’s aggressive wrestling entries could expose him to clean shots or a club-and-sub scenario that ends with ground-and-pound. He also cited Nickal’s perceived cardio edge—if the fight creeps into the late 2nd or 3rd, Nickal’s pace could melt a fading Day Ridder, leading to a stoppage on the mat.

Matty Betts backed Thomas Petersen to win by submission at +700. He argued that Dontale Mayes looks "finished": Mayes has been heel-hooked twice in the UFC, routinely quits when fights hit the mat, and is a one-dimensional, aging kickboxer. Although Petersen is not as physically imposing as Jailton Almeida or Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Betts believes Petersen is skilled enough to secure at least one takedown. On the ground Mayes offers little resistance, giving Petersen multiple chances to lock up a choke or joint lock rather than needing extended ground-and-pound. Because a referee stoppage from strikes feels less likely, Betts prefers the generous submission number to an inside-the-distance ticket and made it the first—and riskiest—leg of his cycle parlay.

Matty Betts called Bo Nickal at –300 “the buy-low spot of the century” and targeted Nickal by knockout—especially Round 3—against Reinier de Ridder. Betts argued the market is overreacting to De Ridder’s BJJ credentials, ignoring that the Dutchman was repeatedly tagged and slowed late by Gerald Meerschaert. Nickal is the far better athlete, owns Division-I championship wrestling, and, per Betts, has purposely taken back-to-back matchups with guard players like Paul Craig and De Ridder to sharpen his kickboxing in real time. He expects Nickal to sprawl early, keep the fight upright, and piece up the hittable De Ridder with straight lefts until a finish materializes. Cardio also favors Nickal, making the +650 Round 3 KO/TKO prop Betts’s favorite angle, with a smaller position on the generic KO line around +200 in case the stoppage comes sooner.

Matty Betts eyed Montel Jackson by decision at +135 as the most likely outcome against 17-0 Daniel Marcos. Betts conceded Jackson possesses one-shot knockout power—calling him “probably the hardest hitter at bantamweight”—but argued Marcos has shown the chin, footwork, and calf-kick game to blunt explosive moments and force longer stretches of point-fighting. Jackson owns the reach edge, better wrestling metrics, and the superior control grappling should he choose to mix levels, giving him multiple paths to bank rounds even if Marcos lands slightly more volume. Betts’s only hesitation is price: plus 135 feels thin relative to a perfect record on the other side, so he advised grabbing the decision prop only if it drifts back toward +160 or pairing it with a separate plus-money underdog shot elsewhere rather than laying the chalk moneyline.

Matty Betts recommended a small wager on Daniel Rodriguez to win in Round 3 at +1600, noting that almost every recent Santiago Ponzinibbio fight has featured late chaos. Ponzi was finished in the third by Kevin Holland and needed a last-minute KO to escape Alex Morono; even Carlson Harris nearly folded him early in their bout. Betts thinks the 38-year-old Argentines gas tank is fading, while Rodriguez, the same age, still pushes pace and carries volume boxing that piles up attritional damage. He also highlighted that both fighters have shown enough durability to survive early exchanges, making a slow-build war that cracks open in the final five minutes the most appealing scenario. Because books are hanging 12-1 on Ponzi round 3 and 16-1 on D-Rod round 3, Betts suggested sprinkling both but prefers Rodriguez, whose sharper jab could leave Ponzi compromised late.

Matty Betts faded the popular side and backed Carlos Prates to knock out Ian Garry in the main event. He pointed out Garry has been hurt and even knocked down in prior UFC fights and leaned on wrestling versus MVP. Betts argued Prates’ blend of reach, forward pressure, and one-shot power will eventually find Garry’s chin even if Garry wins early minutes. He called it the contrarian KO shot that completes his 25-1, $5k to $130k cycle parlay.

Matty Betts picked David Onama to win a 29-28 decision against Giga Chikadze at +165. He emphasized both fighters’ durability and expects the bout to hit the scorecards. Betts believes the UFC matched them to get rounds for Chikadze after his layoff, but sees Onama being the busier man round-to-round and edging the cards. That durability plus activity angle makes Onama by decision the second leg of his long-shot cycle parlay.

Matty Betts said Jimmy Flick is a live dog to tap out Matt Schnell. Betts noted Schnell retired, is only now returning, and has been submitted by lesser grapplers in the past. He called Flick's grappling "elite," predicting Flick drags Schnell to the mat and finishes the choke despite Schnell holding the striking edge. Betts felt Flick should not be the underdog and locked in Flick by submission as the first leg of his cycle parlay.