Michael Breed tabbed Daniel Berger as his favorite true long-shot because Berger’s "complete game" thrives when par is a great score. Breed highlighted that Quail Hollow will likely start soft, then bake out, turning the week into a survival test. Berger’s above-average driving accuracy, solid iron play, and tidy short game give him the tools to ride out those conditions and stay on the right side of par. With sportsbooks hanging triple-digit outright numbers, Breed is adding Berger to his betting card, sprinkling top-20 props, and mixing him into DFS builds as a low-roster leverage play.

Michael Breed expressed real concern over Viktor Hovland’s recent form. Since nearly toppling Brooks Koepka at Oak Hill, Hovland’s game has "ebbed and flowed," with Breed noting an unusual number of weak approach shots and miscues around the greens—errors that Quail Hollow’s 7,600-yard setup will punish. Breed acknowledged Hovland’s ceiling if everything clicks but called him too volatile for outright bets this week. He labeled Hovland a boom-or-bust tournament flyer in DFS rather than a core play.

Michael Breed said Patrick Cantlay is a tough sell in betting markets because the putter has completely abandoned him of late. While Cantlay’s ball-striking numbers remain "really good," Breed stressed that the former FedEx Cup champ has been losing strokes on the greens for several weeks and now heads to Quail Hollow’s slick Bermuda surfaces, historically Cantlay’s worst split. With par projected to be a premium score, Breed thinks every missed mid-range putt will cost Cantlay valuable ground. He plans to sprinkle Cantlay in a few DFS GPP lineups for upside but is passing on outrights and top-10 tickets until the flat stick shows signs of life.

Michael Breed urged caution on Xander Schauffele, noting that 2025 stats show clear slippage off the tee and on the greens relative to last season’s elite consistency. Schauffele’s iron play remains solid, but Breed stressed that this week’s wide-open corridors still require finding fairways to attack Wissahickon’s small-playing Tillinghast greens. Breed believes Schauffele ‘needs’ a top-5/top-10 just to get his season back on track and warned that an ugly opening round could derail him entirely. Until the driver and putter cooperate, Breed views Xander as a riskier outright or DFS spend than his 16-1 number suggests.

Michael Breed said Rory McIlroy should "free-wheel" his way to something like 25-under at Wissahickon. Breed highlighted 118 enormous bunkers that only come into play for players who do NOT carry it past the 310-315 yard choke point; once you’re past that, the landing areas widen dramatically. Rory’s elite club-head speed, sky-high ball flight and preferred right-to-left shot shape all match that profile. Breed added that after finally completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta, McIlroy arrives with zero pressure and is mostly treating this as a tune-up for next week’s PGA Championship, which could make him even more aggressive. In short, the Philadelphia Cricket Club setup amplifies Rory’s biggest weapons and makes him a justifiable betting/DFS anchor despite the short odds.

Michael Breed stressed the significance of iron precision and short game conditions at Harbour Town Golf Links, highlighting that this week's course design and small greens heavily favor great iron players. He detailed historically that the last five champions were all top 10 in strokes gained approach and four of the five hit over 50 greens. Despite Collin Morikawa's struggles on the greens lately, Breed emphasized that the less challenging green surrounds and benign putting conditions at RBC Heritage uniquely benefit him, aligning perfectly with Morikawa's elite iron play and accuracy.