Michael Fiddle recommended Eagles -7 (-105) at home, explaining that a normal three-point switch for changing venues implies the Week 6 closing line (Eagles -7 on the road) was more accurate than the current price. He expects bettors to buy Philadelphia and fade New York as kickoff nears, creating line movement in the Eagles’ favor. Despite the prior 34-17 loss, Fiddle trusts the larger full-season sample over one outlier game and cautioned against parlaying the side and total due to correlation tax.

Michael Fiddle advised grabbing the Packers at +800 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM before the market catches up. His power rankings rate Green Bay as the league’s second-best team with a 90.1% playoff probability and a 26% chance to claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed, yet the Packers are currently priced behind the Lions in futures markets—a discrepancy he views as pure value.

Michael Fiddle said the Packers are an auto-bet at -3 (-115) in Pittsburgh because his market-based power rankings have Green Bay as the NFL’s No. 2 team while the Steelers sit closer to league average despite jumping from 14th to 12th after a loss. Green Bay’s youth (youngest starting lineup) is a long-term edge against Pittsburgh’s second-oldest roster, and more film on the Steelers’ quick-passing offense should make them easier to defend. Fiddle makes the game Packers -3.6; with the key number of 3 being so valuable, he expects the line to close -3.5. He dismissed any Aaron Rodgers revenge narrative and urged bettors to grab the -3 early to lock in closing-line value.

Michael Fiddle took Matthew Stafford under 255.5 passing yards. He noted the Colts have been the sharp side ATS, with the spread moving from +4.5 to an expensive +3.5, implying Indianapolis controls game flow. Indianapolis leads the league in drive-success conversion rate at an eye-popping 83.1%, meaning they stay on the field and bleed clock. Fiddle expects that time-of-possession edge to cap Stafford’s volume. The market’s consensus number already sits below 245.5, so Fiddle views 255.5 as a chance to capture closing-line value while betting on a methodical Colts offense keeping the Rams’ passing attack in check.

Michael Fiddle said the 36.5-yard receiving prop for Jordan Addison is a buy-low spot. Addison is coming back from a three-game suspension, not an injury, so Fiddle expects a full snap share. With defenses rolling coverage toward Justin Jefferson, Addison keeps drawing lighter assignments yet still offers explosive-play upside. The market initially opened Addison’s line in the mid-40s but steamed it down to 36.5, a move Fiddle called an overreaction. He noted Minnesota is 7-0 in international games and the spread has already moved from Vikings ‑1.5 to ‑2.5, a signal bettors expect normal offensive efficiency. Fiddle believes the prop will rebound to roughly 40.5 before kickoff and wants to lock in the floor number now.

Michael Fiddle argued that Shane Steichen "should be atop the board for Coach of the Year" now that Indianapolis is averaging 31 points per game and leading the league in expected points added per play. He called the Colts "the real deal" after their fast offensive start and suggested bettors consider Steichen’s award odds before sportsbooks fully adjust to Indianapolis’ efficiency spike.

Michael Fiddle advised grabbing Dallas +1 at Chicago before the market flips the Cowboys to road favorites. He cited three major injuries in the Bears secondary—Kyler Gordon (hamstring) still out, Pro-Bowl corner Jaylon Johnson now out indefinitely with a groin issue after logging only one quarter in Week 2, and slot corner Josh Blackwell limited by a hamstring—leaving Chicago thin at every coverage spot. Detroit exploited the same gaps for 51 points, and Fiddle expects Dak Prescott’s passing attack to follow suit in what figures to be a shoot-out. Because the money-line already sits at −105 while the spread is +1 at −110, he called the point-spread the superior value play.

Michael Fiddle recommended betting Austin Ekeler over 22.5 rushing yards at -115. He expects Washington to lean on the veteran because Green Bay’s upgraded pass rush, spearheaded by Micah Parsons, will keep Ekeler on the field for pass protection. Fiddle reasoned that using Ekeler solely as a blocker would telegraph plays, so Kliff Kingsbury will mix in handoffs and allow audible draw calls when Ekeler is the lone back. He also highlighted market action that drove the prop up from 20.5 to 22.5 yards, signaling sharp interest on the over, and reminded readers that both offenses posted near-50/50 run-pass splits in Week 1. All three factors point to Ekeler clearing a modest rushing line.

Michael Fiddle broke down the spread movement for Thursday night and explained why he is no longer laying the chalk with Green Bay after the market pushed the line from Packers -3 (-115) to -3.5 (-105). Fiddle stressed that roughly 15% of NFL games finish with a three-point margin and that moving on or off the key number of 3 is worth about 22 cents in betting value. Because the half-point jump yielded only 12 cents of value, he believes the Commanders now hold the edge at +3.5. He personally grabbed Green Bay at the opener but said anyone betting this game today should either take Washington plus the hook or play the Packers moneyline instead of the spread.

Michael Fiddle said the market over-reacted to Green Bay’s trade for Micah Parsons, noting the point spread jumped from Packers ‑1.5 to ‑2.5 even though Parsons missed all of camp with a contract hold-out and a back injury. Fiddle argued the edge rusher is not worth a full point against the spread and expects resistance Sunday morning that will drag the line back to Lions +2 or +1.5. He split one unit on Detroit, putting 0.75 units on +2.5 and 0.25 units on the money line at +118, stressing the growing importance of the number 2 because aggressive teams like the Lions attempt two-point conversions and fourth-down tries instead of field goals.