Fiddle recommended the first-half under 19 points, pointing out that both quarterbacks are facing last year’s defenses, units that practiced against them daily and therefore know their tendencies. He expects the Jets to lean run-heavy while Pittsburgh, now thin at wide receiver after losing DK Metcalf, also keeps the ball on the ground. Aaron Rodgers’ passing-yards prop has already been bet down nearly 10 yards to 202.5, reflecting skepticism about explosive plays. Both Rodgers and Justin Fields ranked in the 20s in accuracy last season, so Fiddle anticipates a field-position battle early with limited scoring chances.

Although not yet an official play on his card, Fiddle told readers to keep a close eye on the Buccaneers-Falcons total (currently 47). With Tampa Bay down multiple pass-catchers—Chris Godwin, Cade Otton and Jalen McMillan—and the Falcons already built around Bijan Robinson, he expects both offenses to lean heavily on their feature backs (Bucky Irving for Tampa, Robinson for Atlanta). That ground-and-pound outlook, combined with the Buccaneers’ depleted receiving corps and an inexperienced Emeka Egbuka stepping into a primary role, creates a natural path to fewer possessions and clock-draining drives. Fiddle suggested bettors "consider the under as a separate straight bet, not a same-game parlay" and monitor any late-week movement that might still leave 47 on the board.

Fiddle pounced on Falcons +2.5, arguing the line hasn’t caught up to Tampa Bay’s mounting injuries. The Buccaneers will be without WR Chris Godwin and All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs, and they just lost TE Cade Otton to a leg injury. Rookie Emeka Egbuka—star of the preseason buzz—must now debut as the de facto WR1, and WR Jalen McMillan is also sidelined. Fiddle expects mid-week sharp money to push the spread toward +1.5, so locking in +2.5 captures key value. He also noted both teams lean on elite backs (Bijan Robinson for Atlanta, Bucky Irving for Tampa Bay), suggesting a run-centric, lower-variance script that increases the value of taking the points. He prefers the spread to the +120 money line given the current pricing and advised considering an independent under wager once the total firms up.

Fiddle urged bettors to take Ravens +1 (or better) in the Week 1 SNF showdown. Some books list Buffalo ‑1.5, a spread he says simply reflects the modern 1.5-point home-field baseline and implies the teams are power-rated equally. Using last year’s closing-line data and off-season roster moves, he believes Baltimore should be rated higher. Early-season weather in Buffalo offers minimal home-field edge, and the Ravens enter the opener fully healthy—Lamar Jackson has no injury designation, Derrick Henry is fresh, and a defense that dodged the injury bug in 2024 is intact. Even though Baltimore carries slightly higher long-term injury risk, that is irrelevant in Week 1. Fiddle expects the market to trend toward pick-’em and says paying five extra cents for +1 (-115) instead of the ML (-110) is worth the seven-cent theoretical value of the point.

Fiddle recommended a full-unit play on Over 43 in Cardinals-Saints, citing a convergence of pace and playmaking. New Saints coach Kellen Moore has coordinated top-two offenses in pace of play three straight seasons and plans to gas defenses with volume. New Orleans enters Week 1 healthy at the skill spots—Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed—giving even a shaky QB room (Spencer Rattler backed by Tyler Shough) explosive-play upside. On the other sideline, the betting market loves Arizona’s offensive ceiling: Kyler Murray says his ACL-repaired knee feels “as close to normal as ever,” Marvin Harrison Jr. should be featured after last year’s mis-usage, and Trey McBride plus James Conner round out a deep set of proven weapons. Jonathan Gannon also prefers to operate with tempo. Because 43 and 44 are key NFL total numbers, Fiddle thinks the line will close above 44; snagging 43 now secures valuable numbers and makes the over an "early and often" play in Saints games.

Michael Fiddle advised taking Under 47 before the market swings back down. The total opened at 45.5 in May but climbed to 47 for two main reasons he outlined: (1) the Colts naming Daniel Jones as their Week 1 starter, which pushed bettors toward a more optimistic view of the offense, and (2) a preseason environment where overs cashed at a 70% rate, creating a league-wide bias toward higher totals. Fiddle argued those inputs are already baked in and that regular-season football will look very different. Shane Steichen’s Colts still want to be run-heavy and reliant on short throws, while Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins are deliberately shifting from a pure speed/timing attack to a bigger, more physical identity. He expects defensive game-planning and execution to rise sharply from preseason levels and projects the number to close around 46.5, offering a half-point of CLV on a key total. He labeled it a strong early-week bet and a clear positive-EV position.