Michael Lurato picked HyunSung Park to win but said the standalone –175 to –190 money-line is too steep for a flyweight bout likely headed to the cards. Hernandez relies on awkward, free-form lateral movement to set up reactive takedowns, yet the Apex’ smaller cage shrinks that runway and lets Park, the more fundamentally sound boxer, cut him off. Lurato added that Hernandez is dangerous for only the first few seconds of a scramble; once Park establishes hooks, Hernandez tends to accept position rather than explode again. Because he still expects extended exchanges and at least one scramble, Lurato suggested pairing Park ML with Over 1.5 rounds in a same-game parlay to bring the price near pick-em. That combo captures Park’s cardio advantage and Hernandez’s durability while avoiding the worst of the chalk.

Michael Lurato agreed Reed’s takedown defense is still a liability and predicted Gomes gets her out of there in the second or third round. Reed’s UFC run is a revolving door of win-loss results, and every loss came when opponents imposed grappling pressure. Lurato expects Gomes to march forward for 15 minutes throwing "heavy leather" before changing levels; once Reed’s hips hit the mat her lack of athleticism and grappling awareness usually ends the fight quickly. Because women’s MMA upsets do happen, Lurato will not pay the –550 tag, but he is comfortable with Gomes Round 2/3 or ITD props that convert the stylistic edge into plus money. He also noted that Gomes’ combination of takedowns and potential finish makes her a sneaky high-ceiling fantasy option if priced below the top salary tier.

Michael Lurato reluctantly sided with Thiago Moises, arguing the Brazilian possesses the broader skill set—elite grappling, hard calf kicks, and a cleaner striking arsenal—but warned that backing him requires “closing your eyes and hoping he actually follows the right game plan.” Lurato conceded Moises often sabotages himself by fighting off the back foot with minimal output, yet maintained that if Moises decides to use his takedowns and rear-side counters he should neutralize Gordon’s pressure in the smaller Apex cage. He sees Gordon’s willingness to over-pursue after landing—combined with a history of finding bad scrambles—as openings for Moises to hit reactive shots or snatch a leg-lock. Because Moises’ decisions frequently frustrate bettors, Lurato did not recommend laying the current juice but thinks the favorite still wins more often thanks to superior finishing upside on the mat and heavier single-strike power.

Michael Lurato backed Gabe Green as a bet-worthy underdog around +200 against Mathews Camilo. Lurato argued the market is overrating Camilo’s flashy Jose Aldo–inspired body attacks while ignoring his defensive lapses—when he commits downstairs his chin stays high and his head barely moves. Camilo has never been dragged into deep water by a UFC-level opponent, so his durability is still an open question. Green, on the other hand, owns a proven gas tank and has survived heavy shots in wars with Daniel Rodriguez and Phil Rowe, only being finished once in nine years. Lurato likes Green’s ability to switch to southpaw and fire a check right hook or straight left the moment Camilo gets “too body-happy,” especially inside the smaller Apex cage that forces exchanges. He also noted Green’s underrated grappling and pocket shot selection—traits that let him turn fights into ugly phone-booth brawls where the more seasoned, sturdier fighter usually prevails. Because Camilo has yet to face that kind of pressure and the line has swelled past –230, Lurato advised taking Green on the money-line at anything +180 or better and labeled the bout a classic “proven grinder vs unproven prospect” spot.

Michael Lurato recommended grabbing Julian Erosa at the current +150 because the veteran creates far more offense than Melquizael Costa and owns broader paths to score big moments. Lurato believes Erosa possesses the cleaner hands, heavier power, tighter head movement and superior willingness to press into the fire, whereas Costa is an opportunist who waits for opponents to open the door. He concedes Erosa’s chin is the obvious red flag, but argues that if it holds up for even 10–12 minutes, Erosa’s higher output and serviceable grappling should sway judges in a 145-pound bout the books expect to finish (Under 2.5 sits –150). Lurato is betting the money-line rather than props, banking on Erosa’s initiative to outshine Costa’s counter-first style and produce either a late finish or clear 29-28 decision.

Michael Lurato called Sodiq Yusuff a "get-right spot" at plus money, arguing the Nigerian packs an extra gear of violence that Santos simply lacks. Lurato reviewed tape of Yusuff’s three-round war with Mike Davis—"the best Contender Series fight ever"—and his fearless pressure against snipers like Edson Barboza, concluding that Yusuff trusts both his chin and his power. He contrasted that with Santos, who appeared tentative against Marshall, never committing fully and seemingly fighting with a safety on his trigger. In exchanges Lurato expects the optics to favor Yusuff: harder shots, cleaner power connections, and a willingness to bite down when Santos tries to jab from distance. He also noted that if judges had awarded Marshall the decision, Santos would not even own this matchup, underscoring how untested he remains. Because the matchup plays directly into Yusuff’s willingness to trade and Santos’ tendency to coast, Lurato advised taking the Yusuff money-line at anything above even odds, labeling it his preferred underdog bet on the card.

Michael Lurato said the betting market is wildly inflated on Bellato at –550 but still expects the Brazilian to finish Paul Craig inside the distance. Lurato called Craig an "opportunistic-only" fighter whose wins come when opponents make catastrophic mistakes; he never sets anything up himself. Craig’s striking remains, in Lurato’s words, "pedestrian"—he throws from his hips, leaves his chin on a shelf, and has been hurt repeatedly whenever foes keep the fight standing. Bellato is a natural 205-pounder (Lurato even suggested he could be a small heavyweight) with real one-shot power, serviceable wrestling and the positional awareness to avoid Craig’s guard. Lurato noted Craig’s move back up to light heavyweight further tilts physicality toward Bellato and expects the Brazilian to “walk right through him” unless he voluntarily jumps into Craig’s guard. Because of those advantages, Lurato advised either passing the money-line altogether or building Bellato Inside-the-Distance into parlays if you must have action, predicting a knockout no later than the second round.

Michael Lurato said he is probably passing on the main event but sees betting angles if action is required. Because Burns will either operate all the way outside with heavy calf-kicks or crash all the way in to clinch and wrestle, Lurato expects long stretches of fence work and fewer pocket exchanges. Morales, meanwhile, rarely strings combinations together and prefers to snipe, another dynamic that slows pace. Those style traits make the full-fight Over (or alternative totals that reach the championship rounds) his preferred lean. If forced to pick a prop, Lurato would throw a small flyer on Burns Inside-the-Distance by submission, citing Burns’ world-class BJJ and concerns about Morales’ bottom urgency in previous bouts with Neil Magny and Adam Fugitt. He emphasized that any wager on Burns should be tiny, as this is largely a ‘show-me’ spot, but the grappling edge gives the veteran at least one realistic path to cash a plus-money ticket.

Michael Lurato said the only value in the UFC Vegas 106 main event is on Gilbert Burns at roughly +570 and made it clear he would not include Michael Morales in any parlays at –820. Lurato argued that Burns’ three-fight skid has come against elite names (Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena, Belal Muhammad) while Morales’ six-fight UFC streak is built on fading veterans or inconsistent talents (Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, Max Griffin, etc.). Burns still carries fight-changing power, world-class BJJ and serviceable wrestling, and older fighters often lean on their grappling to reduce damage. Meanwhile Morales would need to fight perfectly on the back foot for 25 full minutes, something Lurato has not seen him prove at this level. In short, the odds are “ludicrous,” the favorite is un-bettable, and the plus-money vet is the side if you are betting this fight.