After Carolina was power-rated among the league’s worst teams, the market shoved the line from Panthers ‑1.5 to Falcons ‑4.5—a six-point swing that leaped across the key numbers of 3 and 4. Rathburn thinks that’s simply too much for an NFC South rivalry where games are historically tight. Atlanta is coming off a statement win over Minnesota that could be inflating perception, while the Panthers quietly rank top-10 in rush-defense EPA, a direct counter to the Falcons’ run-first identity. He advises taking Carolina +4.5 before sharps inevitably buy back the home dog.

Rathburn flagged the Titans-Colts spread as the biggest flip of Week 3: Tennessee opened ‑1.5 but now sits +3.0. He called it a potential “trap/over-reaction” spot, noting no major injury justifies a four-and-a-half-point swing through the key number of 3. The Titans’ front four still owns a top-five pressure rate, which could wreak havoc on an Indy line that surrendered 11 QB hits in Week 2. With a projected run-heavy script keeping possessions down, Rathburn likes grabbing the field goal (and hook if it appears) with a Titans team he believes remains fundamentally equal to the Colts.

The Packers have been bet from ‑5.5 to ‑9.0 after two dominant defensive outings, but Rathburn cautioned that the move prices in a best-case narrative. Cleveland might kick the tires on rookie Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, yet he still projects a relatively low-scoring 24-16 Packers win—an eight-point margin that would cash Browns +9. He stressed that laying nine in a road game falls outside all single-digit key numbers (3, 6, 7) and creates a classic ‘back-door’ scenario for the home dog, especially with Green Bay’s offense content to sit on a lead behind its defense.

Michael Rathburn said the betting market has run the Buffalo number too far, noting the Bills opened at -8.5 in May, touched -10.5 on 9/9, and re–opened at -12.5/-13.5 on 9/14 after Buffalo’s easy Week-2 win over the Jets and Miami’s ugly loss to Indianapolis. He reminded readers that 12.5 blows through the key numbers of 10 and 11 and is unusually rich for an AFC East game where familiarity normally keeps things close. Rathburn’s read is that the current line reflects a pure public fade of the 0-2 Dolphins rather than any meaningful matchup change, creating value in grabbing the Dolphins plus the points before sharp money shows up.