McClure’s model recommends Hideki Matsuyama for a Top-10 (ties paid) wager at +220 on DraftKings. Although Matsuyama’s 2025 results have been volatile – a win, six other top-25s, and three missed cuts – he consistently flashes at Muirfield Village, owning a victory plus three additional top-10s, including 8th last year. The boom-or-bust season profile meshes with his ceiling on this track, and the model believes the +220 number underrates that repeated success.

With Scottie Scheffler’s prohibitive +280 price warping the outright board, Mike McClure advised shifting to the ‘winner without Scheffler’ market and backing Collin Morikawa at +1400. The model grades Morikawa as the No. 1 option once Scheffler is removed, citing two runner-up finishes already in 2025 plus elite course history at Muirfield Village: solo 2nd in 2024 (one shot behind Scheffler) and another runner-up in 2021. That repeated contention suggests he is primed to finally break through on this layout, making the adjusted market price attractive.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation model – which has returned more than $9,000 in PGA profits since June 2020 – spit out Corey Conners as an outright target at 28-1 after running the Memorial field 10,000 times. McClure pointed to Conners’ rock-solid recent form (only one finish outside the top-25 since Feb. 16 with four top-10s) plus elite ball-striking metrics. The Canadian ranks 11th on Tour in driving accuracy, ninth in greens in regulation and 18th in total strokes gained. That statistical profile fits Muirfield Village’s demand for precise tee-to-green play, giving bettors a longshot with a consistent floor and genuine win equity.

Mike McClure’s simulations recommend playing Hideki Matsuyama for a top-10 (ties paid) at +220 on DraftKings. While Matsuyama has been boom-or-bust in 2025—one victory, six additional top-25s, and three missed cuts—the model gives weight to his exceptional history at Muirfield Village. The 2014 champion has three other top-10s here, including eighth place last season, indicating a reliable ceiling on this track. McClure believes the Japanese star’s proven comfort with the demanding approach shots and slick Bentgrass greens offsets the volatility and makes a plus-money finish ticket attractive.

Mike McClure advised bettors to attack the “winner without Scottie Scheffler” market and back Collin Morikawa at +1400. His model projects that stripping Scheffler from the pool turns Morikawa into the most likely champion. Morikawa owns runner-up finishes twice already in 2025 and has twice finished second at the Memorial—one stroke behind Scheffler in 2024 and after a playoff in 2021—demonstrating course comfort and near-miss upside. McClure argued the Californian’s elite iron play, combined with the narrower betting field, makes +1400 mispriced relative to his true probability of finally closing the deal at Muirfield Village.

Mike McClure said his SportsLine model sees Corey Conners as a sneaky outright winner at 28-1. Conners has been one of the tour’s steadiest players since February 16, recording four top-10s and only one finish outside the top-25. The Canadian’s profile fits Muirfield: he ranks 11th in driving accuracy, ninth in greens-in-regulation, and 18th in total strokes gained. McClure noted that those ball-striking numbers are exactly what tends to separate contenders at Jack Nicklaus’ second-shot layout. With sportsbooks hanging a long number because bettors are locked on Scottie Scheffler, McClure believes Conners offers legitimate win equity and is worth a plus-money swing at FanDuel.

McClure’s SportsLine simulation loves Aaron Rai at 45-1, calling him a longshot with a far better chance to win than the odds imply. Rai’s statistical profile fits Colonial perfectly: he ranks 1st on tour in driving accuracy (73.13%), 16th in greens-in-regulation (69.57%) and 20th in strokes gained: approach (+0.513). Although he lacks elite distance, the model expects his precision to keep him in scoring position all week, giving him a legitimate shot at the title and making his +325 top-10 prop at Caesars an attractive wager.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model projected that Jordan Spieth will ‘barely crack the top-10’ at Colonial and is therefore a fade in outright and DFS markets. The model highlighted several red flags: Spieth hasn’t won since the 2022 RBC Heritage and is coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship following a T-34 at the Truist Championship. His iron play has fallen off—he sits 71st in strokes gained: approach (+0.160) and 82nd in greens-in-regulation (66.29%). Driving accuracy is just 59.80% (outside the top-50), while his birdie average (3.93), strokes gained: putting (+0.193) and putts per round (28.55) are also middling. Given those numbers, the model prefers bettors look elsewhere in the +2200 range and avoid using Spieth as a DFS anchor this week.

McClure’s model sees value in Ryan Gerard at +450 for a top-10. The 25-year-old is having a breakout campaign, punctuated by an opening-round 66 and eventual T8 at the PGA Championship. That performance joined earlier top-10s at the Houston Open and Texas Open, demonstrating consistency across course types. Colonial rewards precise iron play, an area where Gerard has gained strokes in seven of his last eight starts. With confidence peaking and triple-digit outright odds compressing, the safer top-10 ticket still carries attractive +450 odds.

McClure advised taking +900 on Keith Mitchell to finish inside the top five after an ugly missed cut at last week’s PGA Championship. Prior to that hiccup, Mitchell logged five consecutive top-20s, highlighted by a runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship and a T7 in the Signature-level Truist Championship. The model believes last week’s stumble was an outlier and expects his elite tee-to-green metrics (he ranks top-20 on tour in SG: Off-the-Tee) to pop at accuracy-centric Colonial, making +900 a strong numbers play.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model flagged Aaron Rai as a value outright ticket at 35-1. Since whiffing the cut at the Houston Open, Rai has rattled off five straight top-40 finishes, a stretch that includes two majors and two Signature Events, proving he can hang with elite fields. Colonial is missing several top-tier names, further boosting his win equity. McClure noted the ability to shop the number—FanDuel is still dealing 35-1 while DraftKings is already down to 30-1—making the Englishman a true longshot worth a sprinkle.

McClure’s model flagged Aaron Rai as mispriced at 45-1, calling him a legitimate threat to win and a strong +325 top-10 ticket. Rai’s precision fit Colonial perfectly: he leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (73.13%), ranks 16th in greens in regulation (69.57%) and sits 20th in strokes gained: approach (+0.513). While he lacks Scheffler-level length, the model projects that if Rai continues to find fairways and hit a high percentage of greens, he can replicate the accurate-ball-striker blueprint that has repeatedly produced winners at this venue. Bettors hunting for a big payout are encouraged to sprinkle outrights and heavier exposure on finishing-position props.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model advised fading Jordan Spieth at Colonial, projecting the three-time major winner to “barely crack the top 10” despite his +2200 outright price. The model points to a string of shaky tee-to-green numbers: Spieth is 71st in strokes gained: approach (+0.160), 82nd in greens-in-regulation rate (66.29%) and outside the top 50 in driving accuracy (59.8%). Short-game metrics are only marginally better—he sits 54th in strokes gained: putting (+0.193) and averages 28.55 putts per round. Those issues have translated to uneven 2025 results (T-34 at the Truist, missed cut at the PGA Championship). McClure argues that with elite iron play critical at Colonial, bettors are paying for Spieth’s name rather than his current form and should look elsewhere in the outright and finishing-position markets.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model circled Aaron Rai at 45-1 as the week’s most under-priced bomber. Rai’s calling card is precision: he leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (73.1%), ranks 16th in GIR percentage (69.6%) and 20th in strokes gained: approach (+0.513). Colonial rewards fairways and crisp irons, so the model gives Rai a significantly higher win probability than his implied 2.2%. Bettors hunting upside can grab +4500 outright or +325 for a top-10 finish at Caesars. If the Englishman continues to pepper greens, McClure believes he can replicate his breakthrough 2023 Zurich run and contend deep into Sunday.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation spit out a rare fade of Jordan Spieth, projecting the three-time major winner to ‘barely crack the top-10’ at Colonial. The model flagged Spieth’s iron play as the chief culprit: he sits 71st on Tour in strokes gained: approach (+0.160) and a mediocre 82nd in GIR rate (66.3%). Add in sub-60% driving accuracy, outside-top-50 ranks in birdie average (3.93), SG: putting (+0.193) and putts per round (28.6), and the picture turns bleak. Recent form backs it up—missed cut at the PGA Championship after a T-34 at the Truist Championship, and he hasn’t lifted a trophy since the 2022 RBC Heritage. With books dealing him at 22-1, McClure argues bettors are paying for legacy, not current performance, and recommends fading Spieth in outright and finishing-position markets.

The SportsLine model underscores Scottie Scheffler’s consistency as the main reason to back him at +450 despite the short number. Scheffler has finished T25 or better in every 2025 start, highlighted by 4th at the Masters, T3 at the Genesis Invitational, T2 at the Houston Open and a breakthrough victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson that ended an eight-month win drought. He’s been a PGA Championship specialist, landing T8 or better in four of his last five appearances, and his profile of elite tee-to-green play travels regardless of weather. While he’s still chasing his first major outside Augusta, the simulation assigns him the highest top-10 probability in the field and labels him a core DFS cash-game piece and a viable outright despite the low odds.

McClure’s SportsLine model projects Rory McIlroy as a top-tier contender based on unmatched course history at Quail Hollow. McIlroy owns four PGA Tour victories here (2010, 2015, 2021, 2024) and three of those came by four shots or more. Fresh off completing the career Grand Slam at the 2025 Masters, he rolls in with confidence, now a 29-time Tour winner. While his 2017 PGA visit to this track produced a modest T-22 and he’s logged only three top-10s in his last ten PGA Championships, the model expects the softer, rain-soaked conditions to accentuate his high-ball flight and wedge precision. At +480, the simulation views him as a justifiable outright or each-way play and a priority anchor in DFS builds thanks to his proven ceiling on this specific layout.

DFS pro Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation run 10,000 times barely places Xander Schauffele inside the top-10 despite his status as the defending PGA Champion. The model flags several red flags: a rib injury cost the 31-year-old two months early in 2025, leaving him with just one top-10 all season. His ball-striking has cratered—Schauffele ranks 158th in driving accuracy (54.17%) and 162nd in strokes gained off-the-tee (-0.439). The short game is no better, sitting outside the top-150 in scoring average (71.04), scrambling (55.8%) and one-putt percentage (38.19%). At a demanding Quail Hollow layout where finding fairways is critical, the model believes those weaknesses outweigh his back-to-back major wins in 2024 and prices the 19-1 outright number as an overpay. Bettors are advised to fade him in outrights and limit DFS exposure.

The SportsLine simulation still shows value on Justin Thomas at 22-1 (25-1 at Caesars) despite him climbing back to No. 5 in the OWGR. The model emphasized Thomas’ Quail Hollow comfort—he won the 2017 PGA here and has never finished worse than T26 in six career starts at the venue. Recent form is finally matching the course history: a win at the RBC Heritage snapped a lengthy drought and was sandwiched by two runner-up finishes, the latest coming last week at the Truist Championship. With confidence surging and a two-time PGA champ narrative in play, McClure advises keeping Thomas on outright cards before the number shortens.

McClure’s model pushed Tyrrell Hatton onto the betting card at +5000, pointing to his sneaky-good PGA Championship history—five top-25s and two top-10s in 10 tries, with an average finish of 25th over the last seven editions. Hatton has missed just one cut in his past 13 majors and logged a T14 at Augusta in April, undone only by a sloppy Saturday 75. Add in two DP World Tour victories since October, including January’s Hero Dubai Desert Classic, and a 13-win global resume, and the model sees clear win equity at this number. Bettors looking for a proven, battle-tested longshot should give Hatton serious consideration.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation spit out Patrick Cantlay as one of its top outright tickets at +4000. The model highlighted Cantlay’s rock-solid major profile—28 cuts made in 32 starts, five top-10s including a T3 at the 2019 PGA—and noted that he’s landed inside the top 25 in half of his career majors. Cantlay owns eight PGA Tour wins, has been as high as No. 3 in the OWGR, and posted top-30 finishes in both of his Wells Fargo appearances at Quail Hollow, the same track hosting this year’s championship. With course familiarity, elite ball-striking pedigree, and a friend-turned-major-winner comparison to Xander Schauffele, the model believes Cantlay is undervalued at 40-1 and worth a sprinkle in outright markets.

SportsLine’s Mike McClure highlighted Tyrrell Hatton as a 50-1 dart worth throwing for the 2025 PGA Championship. The Englishman rides momentum from three straight worldwide top-15s that began with a 14th at the Masters and includes three wins since June 2024 (one on the European Tour). Hatton also owns strong major form—top-15s in two of his last three PGA Championship starts—and elite course history at Quail Hollow, finishing third at the 2023 Wells Fargo after carding four straight under-par rounds. McClure noted that Hatton’s ability to handle the Green Mile and his proven record on similar firm, fast setups make him an appealing plus-money outright and a ceiling play in DFS tournaments.

Mike McClure's SportsLine simulation model projected a rough week for defending PGA champion Xander Schauffele, saying the 31-year-old will "barely crack the top 10" at Quail Hollow. The model pointed to Schauffele’s glaring statistical slide after a spring rib injury: just one top-10 all season, 142nd in putting average (1.772), 156th in one-putt rate (38.19%), 161st in strokes-gained putting (-0.475), 148th in total driving and 162nd in strokes-gained off-the-tee (-0.439). With his ball-striking and flat stick both ice-cold heading into the brutal Green Mile finishing stretch, McClure advised bettors to fade the short odds on the defending champ and look elsewhere for outright tickets and DFS exposure.

Mike McClure advised fading Jon Rahm in both betting and DFS. Despite a salary discount to $10,200, Rahm is still drawing healthy ownership projections, which McClure called “mind-boggling” given Rahm’s recent dip in form. Books continue to hang short outright numbers on Rahm—shorter than McClure’s simulations justify—and McClure refuses to bet him "until we see it again." He would rather allocate salary to Justin Thomas at $9,900 or simply start builds with mid-range studs, making Rahm a fade on both fronts.

McClure added a position on Justin Thomas at 22-to-1, noting his model shows JT’s win probability higher than that price implies. Thomas is only $9,900 on DraftKings, giving roster flexibility compared with the $10,200 tag on Jon Rahm. McClure pointed out JT’s major-championship pedigree, improved approach numbers in recent starts, and favorable fit for Valhalla’s emphasis on long-iron play as reasons his simulations see value in the low-20s outright range.

Mike McClure revealed he grabbed Patrick Cantlay at 45-to-1 and still rates that price as clear value. After running his simulations, Cantlay showed a positive expected value even as some books drifted down to 40-to-1. McClure compared Cantlay’s number to similarly-talented peers such as Xander Schauffele at 22-to-1 and concluded Cantlay is being overlooked by both bettors and DFS ownership metrics. With Cantlay’s elite tee-to-green profile and track record in tough major setups, McClure believes anything 40-plus is a green-light outright wager.

Mike McClure said Bryson DeChambeau remains the only member of the Big Three still priced close to his true odds. McClure’s SportsLine simulations make all three elite players roughly 7-to-1—Scheffler 7.19, McIlroy 7.54, DeChambeau 7.55—yet books have Bryson at +700 after opening at +1400 on Sunday. That move chopped his number in half, but Bryson is still the single closest to fair value while Scottie sits at +400 and Rory +450. McClure stressed that the trio soaks up roughly 40 % of the tournament’s total win equity, so squeezing any edge is critical. Because Bryson’s market number now aligns almost perfectly with his modeled win rate, McClure views him as the only justifiable short-odds outright and applauded anyone who locked in the earlier 14-1 or 10-1 tickets.

The SportsLine model still projects a solid finish for World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler but stops short of installing him as the clear betting favorite at +450. Scheffler has logged top-25s in all nine starts this season and six top-10s, plus four top-10s in five PGA Championship appearances. However, his trademark short game has wobbled since offseason hand surgery—he’s just 92nd in strokes gained around-the-green (+0.014). The model expects the elite tee-to-green skill to keep him on the first page of the leaderboard, yet warns outright tickets carry less value than usual given the modest putting/scrambling profile at a venue with brutal up-and-downs. Consider Scheffler more of a high-floor DFS cash play than a slam-dunk outright.

McClure’s model stamped Rory McIlroy as a top win equity play at +480, leaning on a perfect blend of elite driver metrics and unmatched course history. McIlroy leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee and sits third in driving distance, a potent combo at the 7,600-yard Quail Hollow that lets bombers swing freely thanks to forgiving fairways. He is already a four-time winner at this track (most of any course he’s played in the U.S.) and rolls in riding the momentum of completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta. The only statistical blemish is middling driving accuracy, but the model notes Quail Hollow’s leniency mitigates that weakness. DFS players and outright bettors are encouraged to ride the form and course fit even with the added pressure of a potential calendar Slam.

Mike McClure’s data-driven SportsLine model shoved the red flag on Xander Schauffele, projecting the defending PGA champion to barely sneak inside the top-10 and making him a bet-against at his current 19-1 price. The numbers behind the fade are ugly: a lingering rib injury sidelined him for two months and he has only one top-10 in 2025. He ranks 158th in driving accuracy (54.17%) and 162nd in strokes gained off-the-tee (-0.439), metrics that are killer at 7,600-yard Quail Hollow where driving is paramount. Add in sub-par marks in scoring average (71.04, outside top 150), scrambling (55.80%) and one-putt percentage (38.19%), and the model expects his inconsistent long game to keep him out of true contention. Bettors and DFS players are advised to pivot away from Schauffele despite the name value.

Mike McClure recommended locking Bryson DeChambeau into PGA Championship lineups at $11,500 on DraftKings and $11,400 on FanDuel. DeChambeau has been a major-championship machine over the last two seasons: T5 at this year’s Masters, a win at the U.S. Open, a runner-up at last year’s PGA, and three top-4 finishes in his last four PGA Championships overall. His only blemish in that stretch was a missed cut at The Open. McClure noted DeChambeau’s first PGA Championship start at Quail Hollow produced a respectable T33 when he was still raw; now, with two majors on the resume and a dialed-in driver, the 31-year-old brings both floor and upside that the model loves for DFS tournaments and cash games alike.

Mike McClure said Rory McIlroy is worth every penny at $12,200 on DraftKings and $12,700 on FanDuel. McClure pointed out that McIlroy finally shed the Masters monkey by completing the career Grand Slam earlier this year, removing the yearly mental hurdle that had dogged him since 2015. With the pressure lifted, McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow leading the FedEx Cup standings and riding elite major form: no finish worse than 12th in the last three PGA Championships and three top-8s in the last six. McClure’s model projects that positive mindset and track record to translate into a top-end fantasy ceiling, making McIlroy a core building block despite the hefty salary.

Mike McClure’s simulations point to Justin Thomas at 25-1 on Caesars as a bet worth firing. Thomas captured his first major at Quail Hollow in 2017 and won the PGA again in 2022; he has never finished outside the top-26 in six career starts on this course. After nearly three winless seasons, JT ended the drought with a victory at last month’s RBC Heritage and followed it with a T-2 at the Truist Championship, vaulting him back to No. 5 in the OWGR. With a win and two runner-ups in his last three outings, McClure projects Thomas’s red-hot iron play to translate into another serious run at Wanamaker glory, making 25-1 an attractive ticket.

SportsLine’s model, run by Mike McClure, lists Tyrrell Hatton at 50-1 as a strong value wager. Hatton has flashed plenty of Quail Hollow upside—T-3 at the 2023 Wells Fargo—and arrives in form with eight top-25 finishes in nine worldwide starts, including a T-14 at last month’s Masters and a January win at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic. McClure notes Hatton ranks second on the DP World Tour in greens-in-regulation (73.81%), a key stat on Quail Hollow’s demanding complexes. Despite six career top-10s in majors, Hatton is still hunting his first, and McClure believes the combination of current ball-striking and course comfort makes the Englishman live at the FanDuel 50-1 number.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation model flagged Patrick Cantlay at 44-1 as one of its favorite outright bets for the 2025 PGA Championship. The model likes Cantlay’s combination of elite consistency and course history: he has made the cut in 28 of 32 career majors, owns five top-10s including a T-3 at the 2019 PGA, and finished top-30 in both of his Wells Fargo starts at Quail Hollow. Currently No. 14 in the OWGR (peaked at No. 3), the eight-time PGA Tour winner is considered the best player yet to bag a major, a label McClure believes he can shed on a track where ball-strikers thrive. FanDuel is hanging the best price, so McClure recommends grabbing the 44-1 number before it shortens.

Mike McClure said Bryson DeChambeau should be near the top of One and Done cards for the 2025 PGA Championship. McClure pointed to DeChambeau’s scorching major résumé over the past 12 months: a U.S. Open win, three top-6 finishes in four 2024 majors, and a T-5 effort at the 2025 Masters. The 31-year-old’s ability to post huge paydays in the biggest purses dovetails perfectly with OAD scoring, and his outright price of +1000 shows sportsbooks view him as a legitimate win threat at Quail Hollow. McClure’s proprietary simulation model—which is up almost $9,000 on best bets since 2020 and has nailed 14 majors entering the weekend—spits out DeChambeau as one of its highest equity plays, making him McClure’s featured OAD selection this week.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model highlighted Justin Thomas as the best value on the early board at 21-1 to win the 2025 PGA Championship. The simulator loves his recent surge: first victory since 2022 at the RBC Heritage the week after Augusta, plus solo-second finishes at the American Express and Valspar. Thomas has fired four rounds of 66 or lower across his last four starts, signaling ceiling form. Quail Hollow comfort is another factor—he has finished 21st or better in his last two trips to the venue. With elite recent scoring, proven major pedigree, and a course fit, the model projects Thomas to contend deep into Sunday and labels him a must-sprinkle outright and top-10 wager before his odds shorten.

Mike McClure recommended a multi-unit bet on Patrick Reed to finish inside the top 40 at –140 (ties paid). McClure expects Quail Hollow to play tough—likely a single-digit winning score—which historically suits Reed’s grind-it-out majors profile. While others chase low odds on the elite tier, McClure trusts Reed’s short-game wizardry and proven ability to hover between 15th and 35th when he makes the weekend. His simulations have Reed clearing the top-40 cut line more than 63 percent of the time, implying fair odds closer to –170, so –140 represents meaningful edge in a market that often tightens as major week progresses.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model highlighted Justin Thomas as the best value on the early board at 21-1 to win the 2025 PGA Championship. The simulator loves his recent surge: first victory since 2022 at the RBC Heritage the week after Augusta, plus solo-second finishes at the American Express and Valspar. Thomas has fired four rounds of 66 or lower across his last four starts, signaling ceiling form. Quail Hollow comfort is another factor—he has finished 21st or better in his last two trips to the venue. With elite recent scoring, proven major pedigree, and a course fit, the model projects Thomas to contend deep into Sunday and labels him a must-sprinkle outright and top-10 wager before his odds shorten.

The SportsLine model gave a bullish projection on Scottie Scheffler’s chances of snagging his first major away from Augusta. Even after offseason surgery pushed back his start, Scheffler leads the PGA Tour with six top-10 finishes and just fired a record-tying 253 to win the Byron Nelson in his final tune-up. Stat-wise he mirrors his 2024 FedEx Cup title season in most categories, though the putter has cooled—putting average has slipped from 1st to 18th and his birdie-or-better rate has slid from 3rd to 24th. With +450 odds and elite ball-striking intact, the model views the putting dip as a buy-low opportunity for outrights and high-end DFS lineups, especially since he bypassed the demanding Truist Championship and should enter Quail Hollow fully rested.

McClure’s model highlighted Rory McIlroy as a justifiable favorite thanks to four career victories at Quail Hollow—including three by four shots or more—and three PGA Tour wins already this season. Now freed from the pressure of chasing a green jacket after completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta, McIlroy should feel unburdened on a layout perfectly suited to his high-launch driver. Still, the model noted his decade-long drought at the PGA Championship: since his last Wanamaker in 2014 he owns more finishes outside the top-20 (five) than inside the top-10 (three) and managed only T-22 when the 2017 PGA was held on this same course. Bettors are getting +480 odds; the model sees upside given course history but warns that his recent PGA record injects downside risk—making him better suited for DFS builds than outright tickets heavy with exposure.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation model projected Xander Schauffele to finish outside serious contention, barely sneaking into the top-10 despite his status as defending PGA champion. The model flagged multiple red flags: a rib injury sidelined Schauffele for two months early in 2025, he owns just one top-10 all season, and his tee-to-green profile has cratered (158th in driving accuracy at 54.17%, 162nd in strokes gained off-the-tee at ‑0.439). He also sits outside the top-150 in scoring average (71.04), scrambling (55.8%) and one-putt percentage (38.19%). Quail Hollow rewards precise driving, so the model advises fading him at his current 19-1 number in betting markets and limiting DFS exposure.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model makes Jon Rahm a prime value at +1800, projecting the Spaniard to contend for the Wanamaker. Rahm brings 22 worldwide victories and two majors (2021 U.S. Open, 2023 Masters) and has finished top-10 in 13 of his last 27 majors with eight top-5s. He has opened 2025 in steady form, landing top-15s in eight of nine starts, including a 14th at Augusta despite an opening-round 75. Rahm made the cut here in 2017 and has publicly said Quail Hollow suits his power draw, a view the model shares after running 10,000 sims. McClure says bettors hunting a big payday or DFS leverage should circle Rahm as a core play.

Mike McClure said his SportsLine simulation shows defending champion Xander Schauffele doing little more than sneaking into the top 10 at Quail Hollow and makes him a fade at his current +1200 number. The model down-grades him because he owns just one top-10 all year after battling a rib injury, and the ball-striking/putting data is ugly: 142nd in putting average (1.772), 156th in one-putt percentage (38.19%), 161st in strokes gained: putting (-0.475), 148th in total driving, and 162nd in strokes gained: off-the-tee (-0.439). With that statistical profile, McClure argues there are far better betting and DFS values than Schauffele despite his 62-event made-cut streak.

McClure highlighted Patrick Cantlay as the lone "mid-tier" outright he’s willing to pair with Bryson. DraftKings is hanging 45-1 while BetMGM sits at 33-1; McClure’s early simulations would price Cantlay around 38-1, making the DK number a clear buy. Cantlay is 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 16 measured rounds and posted a T3 at Quail Hollow during the 2023 Wells Fargo. McClure expects the market to close closer to 35-1 once sharper money shows up, so he recommends locking anything 40-plus immediately before the top-heavy board (Scheffler/Rory/Bryson) compresses the rest of the odds.

Mike McClure warned that Scottie Scheffler’s pre-tournament +450 outright number is a "public tax" that offers no value in a 154-player major. With Scheffler at 20 % implied win probability and Rory/Bryson soaking up another 30 %, more than half the board’s equity is tied to just four names. McClure prefers to monitor live markets and buy Scheffler if he drifts to +280–+300 after Thursday, effectively securing the same player with 18 fewer holes and a clearer read on his ball-striking at Quail Hollow’s 7,600-yard setup. Unless Scheffler opens a five-shot lead in Round 1, McClure believes patience beats paying the steep pre-event sticker price.