Mike Renner echoed the sentiment that Tet McMillan should be the first wideout off the board but advised attacking longer‑odds derivatives instead of laying –175. Renner mentioned he grabbed McMillan at +400 to go top‑10 on Friday and suggested a Cowboys‑specific landing prop as another angle, arguing that Dallas is the only team outside the top 10 poised to jump the market. Despite acknowledging a "chance he's not" the first receiver, Renner sees McMillan’s contested‑catch dominance and late‑season breakout as giving him the inside track in this receiver class.

Mike Renner is fading Jaxson Dart’s draft stock, backing the over 24.5 at +120. Renner argued that the Pittsburgh Steelers at 21 are the lone franchise positioned to consider Dart inside the top‑25, and even they "might not have that high a grade" if Shedeur Sanders or another passer falls. With essentially one possible landing spot ahead of the prop number and widespread league skepticism about Dart’s ceiling, Renner labeled the plus money on the over as an easy play and expects Dart to last into the late first or early second round.

Mike Renner took the under 10.5 on Tyler Warren’s draft position, even at –165, and said he expects Warren to be gone by pick 15 at the latest. Renner highlighted Warren’s Swiss‑army‑knife resume—inline snaps, slot work, short‑yardage carries, and even gadget throws—and compared his year‑over‑year usage spike to how the league fell in love with Brock Bowers a year earlier. He flagged the Jets (7), Saints (9), and Bears (10) as franchises "vying" for Warren and said it would "surprise me if he slips anywhere past the Bears," framing the top‑10 as Warren’s most probable outcome despite a strong TE class.

Mike Renner is on the under 28.5 at –160 for Emeka Egbuka, projecting him inside the top‑25. Renner called Egbuka the "highest floor, best‑character" wideout in a class light on true ceiling swings, making him attractive to stable franchises. He rattled off Seattle at 18, Denver at 20, Pittsburgh at 21, and Detroit at 28 as logical fits and said 18–21 is the most likely window. Because teams want a plug‑and‑play slot who wins on timing routes and blocks, Renner expects a well‑run organization to "take the easy double" and grab Egbuka before pick 28.5 despite the juice.

Mike Renner echoed Dave Richard, saying he likes Shedeur Sanders to Cleveland because pairing Sanders with Travis Hunter would instantly elevate the Browns’ national profile. Renner noted that smaller‑market Cleveland could leverage the duo’s college chemistry for both on‑field efficiency and off‑field buzz, making the Browns more willing to part with assets to secure Sanders late in Round 1.

Mike Renner slotted Alabama transfer Trey Amos to Buffalo at No. 30, arguing the Bills cannot roll another season with the Kaiir Elam experiment as their only outside‑corner plan. Renner conceded corner value can often be found on Day 2, but said Amos’ technician‑level footwork, 77‑inch wingspan, and 37" vertical give him a plug‑and‑play floor worth the Round‑1 premium. Amos allowed just a 48% completion rate in SEC play and missed only three tackles on 66 attempts, traits Sean McDermott covets in his match‑zone scheme. Renner expects Amos to start opposite Rasul Douglas by Week 1, boosting Buffalo’s DST ceiling and paying immediate dividends in pass‑heavy AFC East shoot‑outs. Prop bettors can target Amos first‑round yes (+130) and Bills exact‑position “cornerback” markets; dynasty leaguers get a rookie CB with consistent tackle volume.

Mike Renner projected Alabama guard Tyler Booker to Houston at No. 25, arguing the franchise must ‘throw C.J. Stroud a bone’ after trading his blind‑side tackle. Booker’s 87.9 PFF pass‑block grade, 33 bench reps, and 9.35 RAS make him the consensus safest IOL in the class. Renner noted Houston finished 29th in adjusted sack rate despite Stroud’s elite pocket presence—proof the unit needs immediate help. Betting markets list Booker as +200 favorite to be first guard taken; Renner sees value on under 31.5 and exact‑team Texans. Fantasy drafters can maintain aggressive Stroud/Collins stacks knowing protection will improve.

Mike Renner pivoted to Arizona star Tet McMillan for Denver at No. 20 after initially eyeing RB Amarian Hampton. Renner argued Sean Payton needs a ready‑made outside weapon; McMillan’s 6'5" frame, 81‑inch wingspan, and 2.87 yards per route scream Michael Thomas‑style usage. Renner dismissed concerns about McMillan’s 4.55 forty, pointing to his FBS‑leading 74% contested‑catch rate and Payton’s history of maximizing big‑bodied route technicians (Colston, Thomas, Burks at OSU). With Courtland Sutton entering the final year of his deal and Jerry Jeudy traded, Renner expects McMillan to command 20‑25% targets as a rookie. He recommends betting McMillan under 26.5 and exact‑team Broncos, and tagging him as a Round 8–9 best‑ball steal if this landing spot materializes.

Mike Renner ended Atlanta’s years‑long pass‑rush drought by mocking Virginia edge Mike Green at 15. Green’s 96th‑percentile explosion score (38" vert, 10'7" broad) and 17.8% pressure rate rank tops in the class. Renner acknowledged the pending investigation into a college‑era sexual‑assault allegation could swing his draft slot but maintained teams will clear medicals and character before Thursday. On field, Green’s 35% win rate on third‑and‑7+ snaps fits Raheem Morris’s wide‑nine front. Renner sees double‑digit rookie‑year sack upside and pegs Green 20–1 for DROY as a value bet if he lands in Atlanta.

Mike Renner mocked Colson Loveland to Chicago at No. 10, arguing Ben Johnson’s offense demands a flex tight end who can detach and win like a wideout—something Cole Kmet cannot do. Loveland ran 41% of his Michigan routes from the slot and posted a 2.05 yards‑per‑route mark that trailed only Brock Bowers among Power‑Five TEs. At 20 years old and 242 lbs, Renner believes Loveland’s frame will easily carry another 10–12 lbs without sacrificing 4.56 speed. With Johnson calling the most TE targets in the league the past two seasons, Renner expects instant fantasy relevance and recommends betting Loveland as TE1 in draft‑position props.

Mike Renner rejected the Ashton Genty and Tet McMillan buzz, arguing Jacksonville’s new GM James Gladstone—fresh from the Rams—values proven college production over raw traits. With a first‑round RB already on the roster and Tank Bigsby breaking out, Renner expects the Jaguars to select Michigan DT Mason Graham at No. 5. He cited Graham’s dominant tape and the Rams scouting philosophy that unearthed Kyren Williams (5th‑round) and Bucky Irving (4th‑round) as cheap skill hits. Odds on Genty/McMillan "tanked" after Schefter’s article; Renner sees value betting Graham to go fifth or being first defensive tackle taken.

Mike Renner said bettors should treat defensive tackle as the chalk outcome for Jacksonville’s first‑round choice and singled out Michigan’s Mason Graham as the name most likely called at pick 5. Renner noted the Jaguars surrendered 4.7 yards per carry over the final nine games and ranked 30th in ESPN’s run‑stop win rate, making an interior disruptor a glaring need for new coach Dave Canales. He added that Jacksonville’s analytics department values age‑adjusted production—Graham produced a 14.8% pass‑rush win rate despite being only 20—which fits their profile of previous first‑rounders. Renner conceded wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan becomes “very live” only if Chicago trades up for Ashton Jeanty and pushes the Jags back to No. 10, but until that materializes he would lay the current plus money on defensive tackle as the club’s first position drafted.

Mike Renner advised bettors to hammer the +180 on a defensive lineman being San Francisco’s first pick. Renner noted that outside of Nick Bosa the Niners have zero proven pass‑rush snaps under contract, and GM John Lynch’s draft history (three DL in his first four first‑rounders) shows a clear priority. Renner dismissed offensive‑line talk, arguing you can find plug‑and‑play guards in Round 2 but cannot locate premium edge talent after pick 20. He expects San Francisco to choose between Clemson’s T.J. Parker and Texas’ Ethan Burke, both graded as top‑15 overall players on his board.

Mike Renner recommended taking the +320 price on tight end being Chicago’s first selection, specifically targeting Penn State’s Tyler Warren at pick 10. Renner explained that new OC Ben Johnson built Detroit’s passing game around multiple‑TE looks and would love Warren’s inline‑to‑slot versatility. The Bears already fortified both lines in free agency, so Renner does not expect Ryan Pace to use another premium asset there. He believes Warren’s 6'6" frame, 88th‑percentile wingspan and 4.58 forty give Caleb Williams a true mismatch target that Cole Kmet simply is not. Renner added that Chicago can still address running back with Trayvion Henderson at picks 39 or 41, making the TE prop the cleaner path at attractive odds.

Renner advised betting Tet McMillan at +400 (Dave found +500) to sneak into the top 10. He compared the lanky Arizona wideout to Drake London—another contested‑catch specialist who went eighth overall—and pointed out that McMillan separates better on tape and owns a 35% college dominator rating. Renner believes teams picking in the 6‑10 range will covet a true X receiver because the second tier of WRs is a steep drop‑off. With only one or two quarterbacks likely early, several premium spots could open for a receiver, making McMillan’s implied sub‑20% chance too low.

Renner grabbed the +480 on Abdul Carter going second overall, arguing Cleveland could pair him with Myles Garrett to create the NFL’s scariest edge duo since Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Renner noted GM Andrew Berry has publicly praised Travis Hunter but believes Carter’s scheme‑versatile explosiveness is the rarer asset. With quarterbacks uninspiring and the Browns already loaded offensively, Renner thinks Berry will lean into defense and gamble on a pass‑rush that can single‑handedly swing playoff games. At nearly 5‑to‑1, Renner sees the bet as a smart way to capture that upside scenario.

Renner pegged Las Vegas as the best bet to draft Ashton Jeanty, backing the Raiders at +110 to be his eventual NFL home. He explained that Chicago would have to jump from pick 10 to 5— a move that historically costs at least a second‑rounder— and the Bears need those Day‑2 selections to plug multiple roster holes. Las Vegas, by contrast, sits squarely in the Jeanty sweet‑spot, owns extra mid‑round capital, and just hired former Boise State offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan, who recruited Jeanty out of high school. Add in Antonio Pierce’s stated desire to “get more explosive in the backfield,” and Renner sees Vegas as the cleanest path.

Mike Renner echoed the fade on Sanders and pushed it further, refusing to bet the quarterback even at top‑10 prices. Renner argued that the two QB‑needy franchises sitting at picks 2 and 3 will have a chance at prospects with rarer physical tools—namely Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter—so they will not reach for Sanders’ average arm strength. He compared Sanders’ ceiling unfavorably to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, stressing that modern front offices covet elite traits. With only a handful of QB vacancies league‑wide, Renner expects Sanders to "stumble" into the teens, making any single‑digit draft‑position prop a negative‑EV wager.