Millz Young views Benoit Saint-Denis as a justifiable ‑1000 favorite because replacement opponent Kyle Prepolec is taking the fight on short notice and went 0-2 in his previous UFC stint before bouncing around Bellator and PFL. Saint-Denis is a relentless pressure grappler who chains takedowns into ground-and-pound or submissions, and Millz believes Prepolec’s regional-level defensive wrestling will crumble once the Frenchman closes distance. The bout feels like the promotion set it up to give Saint-Denis a showcase finish in front of a North American crowd. Millz’s angle is Saint-Denis inside the distance or using him as the one ‘safe’ parlay piece on an otherwise volatile card.

Despite acknowledging that Navajo Stirling is still raw defensively—especially against takedowns—Millz Young is willing to lay the chalk because Stirling City Kickboxing striking is several levels above Ivan Erslan’s. Erslan managed only a single takedown and looked sluggish in his lone UFC appearance versus Ion Cutelaba, so Millz doubts he will be able to blanket Sterling for long stretches. As long as Stirling stuffs the first couple entries or scrambles up quickly, Millz expects the speed and kicking arsenal to overwhelm Erslan and produce a finish inside the distance. He is wary of huge money-line parlays on a still-green fighter but likes Stirling ITD or Sterling Round 2/3 props for plus money.

Millz Young backed Belal Muhammad to defend his title by decision after his line slid from ‑220 to about ‑200. He called Muhammad the most complete fighter in the matchup: elite cardio, serviceable boxing, and a grinding wrestling game that has fueled his long win streak. Millz noted that Jack Della Maddalena’s slick high-low boxing is fun to watch but masks a glaring weakness—he has been taken down and controlled by far lesser wrestlers than Muhammad. Because Muhammad can push pace for 25 minutes and rack up top-control time, Millz views the decision prop as the sharp angle and also suggested using Muhammad as a parlay anchor with Jasudavicius for bettors comfortable laying chalk.

Millz Young said the market is overrating Manon Fiorot after she was steamed from ‑120 to roughly ‑150, making Valentina Shevchenko a rare plus-money underdog he is eager to back. Millz expects Shevchenko’s trademark four-to-six-strike combinations—always punctuated by a chopping leg kick—to win the optics battle against Fiorot’s single shots. He also likes Shevchenko’s ability to mix in reactive takedowns, predicting she will time one of Fiorot’s body kicks, plant her on the mat, and bank control time whenever a round is close. Millz questioned whether Fiorot can maintain her output for five rounds because she has never been pushed by a championship-level opponent. Suggested bets: Shevchenko money line at plus money, with a sprinkle on Shevchenko by Decision for a bigger payday.

Millz Young is fading the market’s fascination with explosive newcomer Jose Aldo and backing Canadian underdog Aiemann Zahabi to grind out a decision. Zahabi will have Georges St-Pierre and the Tristar team in his corner, which Millz believes will fuel a smart, measured game plan focused on slowing Aldo early and stealing late rounds once Aldo’s gas tank falters. Because Aldo tends to fade and Zahabi can turn up the volume late, Millz sees a path where Zahabi edges two of three rounds in front of a favorable crowd. Recommended play: Zahabi money line or Zahabi by Decision at juicier odds.

Millz Young is laying roughly ‑200 on Natalia Silva because her outside-kicking style keeps her completely out of Alexa Grasso’s preferred boxing range. Grasso, coming off losing her belt in back-to-back Valentina Shevchenko fights, has not defended against anyone else in years, and Millz questions whether she still carries championship motivation. He concedes Silva can be clinched if trapped, but expects Silva’s footwork and long-range kicks to avoid extended tie-ups. As long as Silva stays off the fence she can pick Grasso apart and land the more visible scoring shots en route to a decision. Bet recommendation: Silva money line, with Silva Decision as a plus-money sprinkle.

Although Millz Young ultimately picks Mike Malott to finish Charles "Chuck Buffalo" Radtke in Round 2, he stresses caution because both fighters are battle-tested dogs. Malott’s explosive knees, elbows, and opportunistic submissions have produced early finishes in most of his wins, but Radtke offers durable boxing, sturdy wrestling, and refuses to quit. Millz expects Malott’s athleticism to show early and believes a well-timed knee or club-and-sub sequence will break Radtke, yet he is not confident enough to make Malott a parlay anchor. Straight play on Malott ITD is his suggested approach; otherwise leave the bout off tickets.

Millz Young still sides with Jasmine Jasudavicius even at roughly ‑300 because he believes her rinse-and-repeat wrestling (averaging two takedowns per UFC bout) will neutralize Jessica Andrade, who has shown diminished power and urgency in recent losses. Millz likes that Jasudavicius flips a switch once the cage door closes and relentlessly hunts top position, noting the Canadian crowd and her 4-0 UFC start as confidence boosters. While he admits Andrade is a live dog given her championship pedigree, Millz projects multiple Jasudavicius takedowns leading to either a dominant decision or a late submission. Suggested bet: Jasudavicius by Decision/Sub or lay the money line if comfortable with the juice.

Millz Young is backing Modestas Bukauskas at the current pick-em price because Ion Cutelaba remains one of the most volatile fighters on the roster. While Cutelaba looked good last time out, it was against Erslan, the very fighter Bukauskas replaced in the UFC, and Cutelaba’s historical tendency to gas after the first round still looms large. Bukauskas brings the more balanced toolkit—cleaner distance striking, functional defensive wrestling, and better cardio—and Millz thinks those steady attributes will allow him to take over once Cutelaba’s early blitz cools off. He recommends a straight play on Bukauskas rather than risking parlays with Cutelaba’s unpredictability.

Millz Young said to back Brad Katona as an underdog because the matchup is probably much tighter than the opening line suggests. Bekzat Almakhan looked dangerous early against Umar Nurmagomedov but was completely dominated once the fight hit the mat, even suffering a 10-8 on one judge’s scorecard. Katona has only four UFC losses, all by unanimous decision, so he is difficult to put away, and Millz thinks the Canadian crowd plus a ‘back-against-the-wall’ narrative will bring extra grit out of him. Katona’s adequate boxing combined with a willingness to mix in some wrestling could sway close rounds, so Millz is grabbing the dog money line rather than laying juice on a favorite with clear cardio issues.

Millz Young’s lone hitting prop is Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 total bases, a spot that has cashed 80 percent recently. He even sprinkled a home-run ticket because of Ohtani’s .322 ISO against right-handed pitching and Truist Park’s 15 percent HR boost to left-handed power. Late-night West Coast lean makes it a bankroll-builder play in his card.

Millz Young pushed Dylan Cease over 4.5 strikeouts, noting the prop also cashes 80 percent of the time at 5.5. Cease’s fastball–slider combo still produces a 31 percent K rate, and the Padres keep him on the mound long enough (six-inning average) to rack up punch-outs even when his control is shaky.

Calling him “Mr. Knock Knock,” Millz Young played Jesus Luzardo over 4.5 strikeouts. The lefty has cleared that number in 80 percent of recent starts and even beats a 5.5 line 60 percent of the time according to the bet-tools. Luzardo’s 29 percent whiff rate and heavy slider usage make the aggressive plus-money alternate line worth a sprinkle as well.

Millz Young is on Max Fried over 4.5 strikeouts—willing to play 5.5 but prefers buying down to 4.5 on PrizePicks because the matchup with the Dodgers is tough. Fried has hit 6 Ks in three of his last five outings (60 percent success rate) and still owns a 26 percent strikeout rate when facing right-heavy lineups like L.A.’s.

Millz Young recommended Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 4.5 Ks against the Braves. The prop has cashed at a 60 percent clip per the Sports Chat Place tools, and Millz believes the rookie can reach 6 strikeouts if his splitter is working. Despite Atlanta’s low team K-rate, Yamamoto’s 30 percent whiff rate and Dodgers’ willingness to let him reach 90 pitches give the over value.

Millz Young advised playing Framber Valdez over 4.5 strikeouts. The PickDawgz bet-tools grade the play at a 60 percent hit rate, noting Valdez has cashed this number in three of his last five starts. Millz framed the recommendation as a confidence booster when building Friday parlays because the left-hander’s underlying swing-and-miss stuff continues to show up even when his pitch count is modest.

Millz Young leaned toward favorite Azamat Bekoev after the line moved further in his direction. Bekoev impressed in a short-notice debut against Zachary Reese and should own the cleaner, harder boxing here. Ryan Loder—the Ultimate Fighter winner with a collegiate wrestling pedigree—certainly has a path if he can replicate a vintage Matt Hughes grind, but Millz questioned whether Loder can chain takedowns for three full rounds or deal with Bekoev early power. Because Bekoev offense fades late, Millz likes a Bekoev money-line play or Bekoev round-1/2 knockout props while advising live-betting Loder if he starts landing takedowns as Bekoev tires.

Millz Young urged bettors to lay the roughly –250 price on Thomas Petersen. He noted that Dantel Mays looks fluid for a heavyweight but consistently fails to defend takedowns and rarely flashes genuine knockout power. Petersen, a lifelong wrestler, will lean even harder on his mat game after suffering a KO loss to Shamil Gaziev last time out. Millz expects a rinse-and-repeat approach—level changes, chain wrestling and long periods of top control—while avoiding extended striking exchanges. The pick is Petersen by decision or late ground-and-pound, and Millz recommended parlaying Petersen or playing Petersen by submission/KO props.

Millz Young acknowledged the –500 price is steep but still called Cory Sandhagen the clear side against Deiveson Figueiredo. He cited Sandhagen’s elite bantamweight strike rate, willingness to mix takedowns when necessary, and comfort winning rounds rather than chasing finishes. Conversely, Figueiredo’s output plummets at 135 pounds, giving him little margin for error outside a flash KO. Millz allowed that the Brazilian "might" wrestle but doubted sustained success. The expectation is Sandhagen stays mobile, peppers him with one-twos and leg kicks, grabs the occasional takedown, and cruises to a lopsided decision. Millz tagged Sandhagen as a parlay anchor despite the inflated number.

After initially leaning the other way, Millz Young flipped to Bo Nickal once he visualized the wrestling exchanges. Reinier de Ridder, a 19-2 former ONE double-champ, is a pure grappler with shaky stand-up and a habit of dropping his hands. Millz expects RDR to clinch immediately, but if Nickal—an NCAA legend with explosive hips—can stuff three or four early takedowns, the momentum tilts fast. Nickal is still green on the feet but possesses real power, and Millz sees a scenario where the American sprawls, forces RDR to strike, and knocks him out in the second or third round. Suggested play: Nickal inside the distance, particularly KO/TKO.

Millz Young recommended pouncing on the slight plus money attached to Daniel Rodriguez before the market swings. He stressed that Ponzinibbio’s hands routinely drift low, a bad habit against Rodriguez’s high-volume boxing attack that averages north of six significant strikes per minute. Rodriguez just inked a fresh five-fight deal and, after a loss to Kelvin Gastelum, desperately needs a rebound win. Millz likes the fight to reach Round 3—and possibly the cards—but believes Rodriguez will land the cleaner combinations and win minutes. He predicted the line could close with Rodriguez as a small favorite, making the current dog price a value grab.

Millz Young wrestled with the matchup but ultimately sided with underdog Daniel Marcos, now 17-0, against –200 favorite Montel Jackson. He admitted Jackson owns the longer reach, faster hands and heavier power but argued Marcos brings a deeper bag of striking weapons and has shown he can win at range or in the pocket. Millz pointed out that the only proven formula for beating Jackson is relentless wrestling—a lane the Peruvian does not need—but he still trusts Marcos’ versatility and undefeated confidence to pull out the scorecards in what he called a “striker’s delight.” Betting call: take Marcos at plus money before the number tightens.

Millz Young backed plus-money Cameron Smotherman to upset Serhiy Sidey. He reminded listeners that Sidey’s last win over Garrett Armfield was a gift from the judges and noted Sidey has landed few successful takedowns in the UFC. Smotherman, meanwhile, is a polished boxer with real pop who has been sharpening his all-around game by splitting camps with Adrian Yanez, Bellator champ Rufian Stots and, most recently, Diego Lopes’ grappling-heavy room. Millz expects a pure stand-up battle that finishes inside the distance and believes Smotherman’s developing takedown defense will hold up long enough for his hands to find the chin. Recommended angles: Smotherman money-line or KO/TKO props.

Despite the ballooned –600 price, Millz Young still favors Mason Jones but cautions bettors about the live-dog power of hometown slugger Jeremy Stephens. Jones—formerly Cage Warriors’ double champ—mixes high-pace boxing with takedowns and has a clear path by wrestling into an early submission. Stephens’ one-shot KO ability is most dangerous in the first four minutes, especially in front of Iowa fans. Millz recommends a cautious approach: Jones inside-the-distance or submission props, plus a small hedge on Stephens round-1 KO for those looking to mitigate risk. The main read is that Jones survives the initial blitz, drags Stephens down and finishes shortly thereafter.

Millz Young broke down why the modest –135 line on Miesha Tate still holds value. Tate’s trademark clinch-and-trip wrestling led to 115 ground strikes and a third-round submission of Julia Avila, and Millz likes that she has spent her late-career hiatus adding functional muscle. Santos tallied 115 strikes in her last outing and must stay upright to win, but Millz doubts she can consistently stuff Tate’s chain-takedown attack. He projects Tate to bank control time, rack up ground strikes and potentially find a late submission, advising bets on Tate money-line or Tate round-3/decision props.

Millz Young accepted the steam that pushed Gillian Robertson from –200 to roughly –300, citing a massive grappling edge. Rodriguez owns signature striking wins over Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan but has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers in each of her UFC losses. Robertson’s game plan is straightforward: clinch, trip, take the back and hunt the rear-naked choke—an approach bolstered by her improved physicality since dropping to 115 pounds. Millz did warn that if she can’t get early takedowns, Rodriguez could box her up, yet he still views Robertson by sub or dominant decision as the most likely outcome and the betting side.

Millz Young sided with Ivana Petrovic as a two-to-one favorite over Juliana Miller. He reminded listeners that Petrovic out-landed Jamie Lynn Horth 67-52, logged two takedowns and seven minutes of top control in her debut but still dropped a razor-thin decision. Against Miller—who is just 3-3, relies almost exclusively on jiu-jitsu and has shown little striking improvement since winning The Ultimate Fighter—Petrovic owns the more rounded skill set. Millz expects Petrovic to repeat her high-volume kickboxing, mix in clinch trips, and ultimately pour on ground-and-pound for a possible third-round stoppage. The actionable angle is to back the Petrovic money-line or play Petrovic by late KO/TKO at plus money.

Millz Young pointed out that Jacqueline Amaran opened −550 and is marching toward −900, so he is attacking the inside-the-distance market instead. The former LFA standout is 9-1 with a BJJ base and hunts subs immediately once the fight hits the mat. Millz reminded listeners she went 6-0 in LFA, most by first-round finish, and expects the same here against Polyana Viana, calling for a first- or second-round submission. The recommended play: Amaran ITD or Amaran by sub to shrink the massive moneyline price.

Millz Young said Jocelyn Edwards is a rock-solid side even at the steamed-out −300 tag. He likes her clean boxing combinations and the fact she can sprinkle in offensive wrestling when rounds get close. Millz noted Cheyenne Chandler wings one-shot power and has been taken down in five of her last six UFC rounds, while Edwards "knows how to win minutes." He reminded listeners that he called Edwards’ last UFC finish correctly and expects another clear win here, recommending Edwards straight or as a parlay anchor.

Millz Young ultimately sided with Ian Machado Garry at −130, projecting a replay of Garry’s patient decision win over Geoff Neal. He argued Garry’s 56 % striking defense and disciplined footwork will keep him off the fence where Prates’ looping hooks are most dangerous. Over five rounds Garry averages 14 more attempted strikes than Prates and already owns a pair of championship-distance fights from Cage Warriors, an experience edge Millz thinks surfaces in rounds 4 and 5. While a late KO is live once Prates slows, Millz’s primary bet is Garry moneyline with a sprinkle on Garry R4/5 or decision props for extra juice.

Millz Young is taking plus money on Giga Chikadze, predicting a late-round surge and 29-28 scorecards. He questioned David Onama’s current training situation after the Glory MMA shutdown and noted Onama’s tendency to gas – he absorbed 190 strikes in the final two rounds against Nate Landwehr. Chikadze’s famous "Giga kick" to the liver, plus a 60 % distance-strike accuracy, gives him reliable round-winning tools even when fights start slowly. Millz believes Onama will look great early but fade once Chikadze’s kickboxing volume and body work add up. The recommendation is Chikadze moneyline or Chikadze by decision at +275 rather than chasing a finish.

Millz Young jumped on Michel Pereira after the number slid from −160 to −135, calling it the best value spot on the card. Pereira is 3-1 since moving up, mixes spinning kicks, calf kicks, and level-changing takedowns, and routinely out-paces opponents with 5.3 strikes per minute. Millz thinks Abus Magomedov is a pure power boxer who fades once his Plan A is neutralized and pointed to Abus landing only 14 total strikes in the final eight minutes of the Strickland fight as proof. Because Pereira carries the better cardio, more offensive wrestling, and a wider striking arsenal, Millz is comfortable parlaying Pereira moneyline or playing him by decision at nearly +200.

Millz Young laid the −260 on Randy "Rude Boy" Brown, projecting a clean 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects Brown’s eight-inch reach edge to let him pop the jab, circle, and style for the Kansas City crowd while Dalby relentlessly hunts the fence clinch. Millz conceded Dalby could bank one round via wall-and-stall or a well-timed level change, but does not see the Dane replicating that for 15 full minutes. Brown’s 64 % takedown defense, improved footwork, and willingness to break clinches with knees convinced Millz to play Brown by decision at plus money rather than the straight moneyline.

Millz Young said Ikram Aliskerov is worth the steep −600 price because Muniz has turned into a predictable single-leg spammer who just holds position once on top. Millz reminded listeners Muniz shot eight takedowns against the Iron Turtle and still did almost nothing with them, calling the style "old-school Damien Maia without the finishes." By contrast, Aliskerov owns clear striking superiority, real power in both hands, and has defended 78 % of the takedowns he has faced in the UFC. Even coming off a loss to Robert Whittaker, Millz noted the promotion still treats Aliskerov like a future contender, lining him as a 6-to-1 favorite at open before money briefly pushed it to −700. He expects Muniz to get desperate after his first failed shot, walk into a counter, and believes the inside-the-distance prop or the KO/TKO prop is a far better way to attack this fight than laying the moneyline juice.

Although he is not rushing to parlay a −220 price, Millz Young still favors Evan Elder against late-replacement Gage Young. Elder had a full camp and was already slotted for this hometown appearance, whereas Young stepped in after the original opponent was arrested. Both fighters sport identical records and solid stand-up, but Millz trusts Elder’s preparation and cardio more. He sees a competitive striking match but ultimately expects Elder’s pace to win rounds in front of the home crowd.

Millz Young is comfortable laying the −450 to −500 on Da'Mon Blackshear, or playing him by submission. He praised Blackshear’s well-rounded skill set and expects him to out-grapple Alita Hayne despite Hayne’s work at Fight Ready. Millz believes the talent gap is wide enough that Blackshear not only wins but likely snatches a choke once the scrambles start, so the sub prop is his preferred exposure.

Calling it a "retirement party," Millz Young laid the −500 on Zhang Mingyang but is really targeting the Round-1 KO prop. Zhang has ended nine of his last ten wins inside three minutes and showed sneaky double-leg entries that set up brutal ground-and-pound. Millz labeled Anthony Smith "canned goods" after five stoppage losses in his last nine and said Smith’s lone path—pull-guard jiu-jitsu—will not save him from Zhang’s top-pressure elbows. Because the first-round finish still pays plus money, Millz advised either betting Zhang Round 1 or pairing his moneyline with Da’Mon Blackshear in a two-legger.

Millz Young labeled Jimmy Flick a live dog after Matt Schnell was knocked stiff by Steve Erceg in his last outing and has now been bet down from −300 to −260. Flick is a high-level submission hunter who, according to Millz, finally has his personal life in order after a short retirement. Given Schnell’s porous defense and tendency to get into wild exchanges, Millz sees Flick diving on hips early and turning a scramble into a sub, predicting the fight does not see the scorecards and recommending Flick moneyline or Flick ITD.

Millz Young strongly advises betting on Juan Soto to record at least one hit due to an impressive 80% success rate recently (4 of last 5 games). Emphasizing Soto's strong form, Millz suggests today could see Soto achieve one or even two homers, recommending an additional smaller wager for a homerun prop.

Millz Young sees Manny Machado as nearly automatic for at least one hit today, highlighting a 100% success rate (5 straight occurrences) recently. Due to his great recent form, Millz also recommends sprinkling a smaller wager on Machado hitting a home run.

Millz Young has Bobby Witt Jr. as a solid bet to get at least one hit, noting this prop has hit for him at an 80% rate recently. Millz also suggests adding a smaller wager (sprinkle) on Witt hitting a home run today due to favorable circumstances.

Millz Young sees Jacob deGrom as a strong over candidate for his strikeout prop (5.5). Despite a slow start this season, Millz believes this matchup will see deGrom return to form, anticipating him pitching deep into the seventh or eighth innings and comfortably surpassing seven strikeouts.

Millz Young supports taking Framber Valdez' strikeouts, emphasizing Valdez's ability to regularly pitch deep into games—often reaching the seventh inning or beyond. Due to this extended workload and consistent strikeout ability, Valdez offers strong value on his strikeout prop tonight.

Millz Young advises taking Paul Skenes over 7.5 strikeouts against the Seattle Mariners. He acknowledges the line appears high but believes Skenes will keep the game competitive and achieve the necessary strikeouts due to his talent and favorable matchup.

Millz Young endorses Zac Gallen's strikeout prop against the Yankees, specifically liking it if set at 5.5. Young highlights that Gallen has established himself as one of MLB's premier strikeout pitchers over the past three seasons and expects him to record at least six Ks, additionally giving the Diamondbacks a good chance at securing the win.

Millz Young likes Blake Snell over 7.5 strikeouts against the Atlanta Braves, noting that Snell has exceeded this line at a 60% rate. Though the number seems high, Young emphasizes the Braves' recent strikeout tendencies, suggesting Snell should land around eight strikeouts tonight.

Millz Young singled out Elly De La Cruz as a bounce-back candidate after starting quietly in the first two games, taking him confidently to exceed 1.5 total bases. Millz highlighted De La Cruz's capability to get on base and steal bags, referencing past performances. He also suggested De La Cruz might even go yard in this matchup, noting that other superstars like Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have already started hitting home runs, reinforcing a broader trend of star hitters warming up early in the season.

Millz Young confidently called for Fernando Tatis to achieve at least one hit against Atlanta, highlighting that Tatis has successfully gone over 0.5 hits in each of his last three matchups against the Braves, including a home run in a previous game. Millz even entertained the possibility of Tatis hitting another home run tonight, underscoring his offensive consistency versus Atlanta.