Monk said Austin Hubbard is a salary-saver you can click in every DraftKings format at $7,100. Hubbard has attempted at least five takedowns in four of his last five appearances and is averaging 3.9 DK points per minute whenever he is the one dictating pace. The stat case is simple: 5-of-10 TDs vs Prepelic, 6.0 significant strikes per minute against Figlak, and more than three minutes of top control in three different UFC bouts. Rong Zhu, meanwhile, has coughed up control in every fight (3:00, 2:30, 1:21, 1:10) and was taken down 4-of-25 times on Contender Series plus 2-of-10 in his short-notice debut. Monk expects Hubbard to chain 3–5 takedowns, bank several minutes of ride time and win a dull decision that still clears a 10× return. He recommends sprinkling a little Rong Zhu in large-field GPPs for leverage but calls Hubbard a cash-game cornerstone.

Monk advised backing Austin Hubbard at +210 and $7,100 because Rong Zhu is an overpriced favorite whose defensive profile leaks everywhere. Zhu absorbs 5.51 strikes per minute, concedes large chunks of control time early, and owns just a 2-2 UFC record with both losses coming when competition stiffened. Hubbard’s output hovers around 4 strikes per minute, but his game plan is wrestle-heavy: multiple takedown attempts every fight and control-time percentages that rise each round. All three of Hubbard’s UFC finishes came by submission—Zhu’s weakest defensive area—yet the fight is still –220 to go the distance, favoring Hubbard’s grinding style on the cards. With salaries inverted (Zhu $9,100 vs Hubbard $7,100), Monk sees Hubbard as a strong salary-saver in DFS and a viable money-line underdog bet who can rack up takedowns, control, and maybe steal a late sub or judges’ nod.

For his weekly "kill shot" Monk nominated Nursulton Ruziboev as an under-owned GPP dart. He believes the field is overreacting to Ruziboev’s recent loss to Dustin Stoltzfus and expects a strong rebound, making the fighter a perfect ownership pivot in tournaments that exclude the main event. Salary sits in the mid-range where most rosters will gravitate elsewhere, so Monk sees a chance to gain leverage if Ruziboev delivers the well-rounded finishing upside he showed before the Stoltzfus stumble.

Monk called Dricus Du Plessis a "criminally" under-priced underdog at $7,300 and picked him to defeat Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319. Du Plessis averages 6.0 significant strikes per minute, attempts almost one takedown per five minutes, and never fades late, while Chimaev’s control time and takedown success plummet after the opening round. Monk emphasized that Chimaev has never seen a fourth round; Du Plessis routinely turns fights around in rounds 2-3 and has the chin to survive the expected early onslaught. With the champ sitting at +190, Monk will play the fight in every GPP lineup but plans a 60-40 exposure split in favor of Du Plessis, expecting massive ownership on Chimaev and a potential cardio collapse if the under 2.5 prop misses.

Monk said Lerone Murphy is his favorite mid-range DraftKings play at $8,000 and picked him to win a decision over Aaron Pico. Murphy lands 4.5 significant strikes per minute while allowing fewer than 2.5 and still owns 60 % control time because he scrambles or reverses quickly. Monk noted the Brit’s output climbs every round, making him a nightmare for opponents who bank on early success. Pico has nine knockouts and only two submissions, so Monk expects him to head-hunt, but questioned whether Pico’s takedowns translate against the best opponent he has faced. Previous wrestlers such as Josh Emmett and Dan Ige landed takedowns yet still lost on the scorecards to Murphy, a comp Monk trusts. Because public ownership will chase Pico’s finish upside, Monk plans to be overweight on Murphy and underweight on Pico in GPPs, banking on a 90-point decision ceiling and valuable ownership leverage.

Monk sided with Lerone Murphy at $8,000 and +160, calling the Brit an undervalued "decision merchant" who just keeps cashing win checks. Murphy lands 4.5 sig. strikes per minute while allowing only 2.4, owns 60% control share thanks to quick stand-ups, and ramps up both striking and grappling output each round. Monk questioned Aaron Pico’s level of competition coming from Bellator, noting this is "probably his best opponent ever." With the fight –180 to see the scorecards, Monk expects Murphy to win at least two frames by out-landing Pico and surviving takedowns. He graded the matchup a three-star play and will have significant DFS exposure to Murphy in both cash and GPP lineups.

Monk said he will keep fading Michael “Venom” Page in DFS because the flashy Brit almost never turns his style into DraftKings points. Page averages only about 50 DK points in his UFC wins yet costs $8,700 this week. With the fight –225 to go the distance and Page attempting just 0.15 takedowns per five minutes, Monk sees no realistic path to 90-plus points. Page’s karate point-fighting means low strike volume, minimal control time, and virtually no grappling bonuses. Monk is still picking Page to win outright but called him a "big fade" in tournaments and cash, preferring to spend salary on fighters with finishing upside.

Monk projects Asakura to win but questions his $9 200 DraftKings price because Tim Elliott has never been knocked down in the UFC and owns the takedown/grappling path that eats clock. Elliott, 38, could survive to a decision and still grind 35 DK points at only $7 k, making him a viable punt. Monk will be light on the fight overall, seeing Asakura decision as the likeliest result despite Elliott’s sub-defensive lapses.

Monk picked Diego Ferreira while planning heavy DFS ownership to both sides. Ferreira is just 2-4 in his last six, but those losses came to wrestlers who shot a combined 41 takedowns. King Green has attempted exactly one takedown in his last ten fights and has been finished in three of his last four bouts. Monk believes Ferreira “can crack,” citing the 2023 knockdown of Michael Johnson, and expects this veteran vs veteran matchup (40 vs 38 years old) to end inside the distance (ITD –155).

Monk called Chase Hooper a lock-button play at $9,300, labeling him the best salary-tier target above 9k. Hooper is −320 with the fight ‑140 to finish, yet still averages 4.5 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.0. He owns a four-inch height and two-inch reach edge and fights southpaw versus Alexander Hernandez’s orthodox stance, making Hernandez’s predictable panic-takedown plan risky against Hooper’s elite grappling. Hernandez has been stopped in four of his last ten bouts and historically wilted whenever facing step-up competition, including losses to Damon Jackson, Billy Quarantillo, and Renato Moicano. Monk expects Hooper’s improved volume striking to set up dominant grappling sequences that easily pay off in both cash and GPP formats, whereas a Hernandez decision win would likely top out around 35 DK points.

Monk picked Edson Barboza at $8.3K, citing Drakkar Klose’s 22nd-percentile leg-strike defense and Barboza’s elite kicking game. Klose lands only 0.55 takedowns per five minutes, while Barboza defends at 75 percent, so Monk expects a pure striking match and favors the Brazilian’s speed and power. Although the fight-to-decision prop sits at ‑150, Barboza has appeared on the optimal lineup in his last three victories by scoring 90+ DK points. Monk views him as the only cash-viable side and a moderate-exposure tournament play, fading Klose entirely.

Monk called the ‑170 line on Bryan Battle too wide and expects a coin-flip fight that trends to a decision despite a ‑155 Inside-the-Distance prop. Battle averages only 86 DraftKings points in wins and Ruziboev fails to score unless he finishes in Round 1, while the pair have suffered just three finish losses in eleven combined defeats. Monk will stay under the field on both fighters, fading the bout in cash builds and using Battle sparingly in tournaments that need a cheap decision win.

Because Neil Magny is expected to be chalky, Monk turned to Nick Klein as his Kill Shot leverage play. The mid-range fight is unlikely to draw heavy ownership, so Klein’s finishing upside can create differentiation. If Klein’s ownership climbs, Monk said he would pivot even lower to long-shot Danny Silva, underscoring his theme of embracing uncomfortable, under-exposed fighters to take down large GPPs.

Although Monk is picking Tatsuro Taira to win, he called HyunSung Park “a legitimate play at 7K.” Park brings high striking volume, has 100 % recorded takedown defence, and controls 68 % of grappling exchanges in his sample – metrics Monk believes will at least test Taira. Because Taira has been out-struck and looked fatigued in prior bouts, Monk sees a realistic path for Park to score well even in defeat and considers him one of the few underdogs worth more than punt exposure.

Monk is “huge on Rebecki” and expects him to dominate Chris Duncan everywhere. He cited Rebecki’s statistical edges: landing well over five significant strikes a minute in the early rounds, a takedown rate that jumps to 48 % in round three, and control time that doubles late. Rebecki has already out-grappled tougher competition, including Mikhtabek Oralbay, while Duncan’s defensive numbers are, in Monk’s words, “kind of suspect.” Monk sees a high-floor, high-ceiling DFS play worthy of heavy exposure in all formats.

Monk said Esteban Ribovics was “probably my first or second favourite play on the card” for DraftKings GPPs. He likes Ribovics’ relentless striking pace and finishing ability that routinely produce slate-breaking scores, and he is happy to pay the 9K-plus salary. The only concern Monk mentioned is Ribovics’ leaky defense – “he does take a lot of damage” – but with few other high-priced fighters he trusts this week he is willing to eat that risk for the upside.

Monk called Esteban Ribovics one of his top two DraftKings targets at $9,100. Ribovics lands an absurd 8.0 significant strikes per minute, more than double Elves Brenner’s 4.0, and still owns a granite chin after eating 121 strikes from Daniel Zellhuber and rallying to win. The matchup is –155 to finish, giving Ribovics bonus equity, and his relentless forward pressure has already produced a highlight-reel head-kick KO of Terrance McKinney. Monk concedes Ribovics’ 55 % defensive rate and poor takedown defense create some volatility, so he’ll sprinkle Brenner shares in mass-entry GPPs, but the main plan is to ride Ribovics’ unmatched pace and knockout upside in all formats.

Monk will sprinkle Danny Silva at $6.9K as a high-volume punt. Silva lands 7.3 strikes per minute, attempts takedowns in every fight (seven against Pacheco, four against Almeida), and has yet to be finished. Kevin Vallejos allows nearly six strikes a minute and offers no defensive wrestling, so a few Silva takedowns plus control could derail Vallejos’ hefty $9.4K price tag. Monk still picks Vallejos to win but likes Silva’s combination of pace, grappling, and salary relief to open stars-and-scrubs builds and gain leverage on a card with few live underdogs.

Monk plans to be well under the field on $9.3K Rinya Nakamura. The Olympic-level wrestler attempted just one takedown in his loss to Muin Gafurov and has topped 90 DK points only once in four official UFC bouts, relying on 2.0 significant strikes per minute at distance. Even when he did wrestle—4-of-4 takedowns versus Fernie Garcia—he posted only 90.7 DK. Fletcher conceded six of 12 takedowns to Caolan Loughran, so upside exists, but Monk doubts Nakamura will exploit it often enough to smash. With higher-ceiling $9K options like Estevan and Bashi available, Monk is fading Nakamura in GPPs, using only minimal Fletcher hedges, and advising players to allocate salary elsewhere.

Monk acknowledged Vieira’s late-round gas tank remains a concern but still projects him to run through Tresean Gore. Gore has allowed 11 takedowns in three UFC fights, was guillotined in both of his wins, and just gave up 144.6 DK points to Marcos Tullio. Vieira averages 3.6 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, attempted 20 against Chris Curtis, and owns one of the best pure jiu-jitsu pedigrees on the roster. Monk pointed out Gore’s only UFC victories came via low-percentage guillotines of Fremd and Tricoli, while his losses to Brian Battle and Brundage looked one-sided. With the fight-inside-the-distance prop sitting at –215, Monk expects multiple takedowns followed by a submission and will be overweight in tournaments, slotting Vieira into his cash lineup while largely fading Gore.

Monk sided with Nick Klein as a live underdog, citing the wrestling path. Although Klein is just 1-for-9 on UFC takedowns, the attempt volume signals intent, and Andre Puliyev has surrendered roughly two minutes of control time per round while being out-controlled 3-to-1 by DWCS foe CLD. If Klein lands takedowns, his $7,800 salary offers strong leverage in tournaments. Monk admits the fight is high-variance but prefers Klein unless Puliyev lands an early knockout.

Monk said Piera Rodriguez profiles as a smash DraftKings play at $8.7k. He loves her relentless grappling ­– 11 takedown attempts against Sam Hughes and 10 against Kay Hansen, converting 13-of-21 overall – and noted that most of her significant strikes come via ground-and-pound. Ketlen Sosa’s 64 % takedown defense and history of being dragged down by Marnic Mann and even Angela Hill make this a perfect stylistic spot. Monk expects 6-8 takedowns, heavy top control, and a live submission shot, giving Rodriguez 90-110 point upside. He is locking her into GPP cores, considers her cash-viable, and even sprinkled the under 2.5 rounds at +250 because six of the women’s seven combined losses have come inside the distance.

Monk named Martin Buday his official “kill shot” for the slate, calling the $7,100 heavyweight the sneakiest leverage piece on DraftKings. He expects Buday to check in at single-digit ownership because the field views him as a plodding, low-volume clincher, yet Buday actually averages almost five significant strikes per minute and peaks above that in Round 2. Monk stressed that Almeida is a one-dimensional submission hunter who has never had to absorb real volume; if the takedown stalls, Almeida offers almost no striking. Buday’s granite 100 % UFC takedown defense, minute-eating clinch control and proven cardio give him multiple paths to bank a decision or late KO that could eclipse 85-plus DK points. With salary relief and ownership leverage rolled into one, Monk will be well overweight on Buday in GPPs and views him as the dog who can break the slate while the industry chases chalkier punts like Guskov.

Monk picked Reinier de Ridder to upset Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker historically struggles when opponents rack up takedowns and top control. Both of Whittaker’s recent defeats (Khamzat Chimaev and Dricus du Plessis) followed that blueprint. De Ridder excels in clinch-to-mat sequences, having dominated Bo Nickal, Kevin Holland and Gerald Meerschaert in those positions. Monk believes that if de Ridder can close distance, drag Whittaker to the canvas and chain wrestle, he has a clear path to victory. He acknowledged the risk of de Ridder’s unproven cardio in Rounds 4–5 but noted Whittaker’s larger accumulation of damage over his career. At $7,800, de Ridder’s submission upside offers slate-breaking potential, so Monk will be overweight on the underdog while hedging modest Whittaker exposure.

Monk sided with Said Nurmagomedov at $7,900 yet called the matchup a "two-star" DFS play. Said is a Muay Thai kickboxer who has surprisingly attempted 26 takedowns over his last six bouts but landed only 1-of-9 against Jonathan Martinez. When he loses, he gets smothered— giving up seven minutes of control to "Loke Dog" and six to Martinez— but Monk trusts him to defend Bryce Mitchell’s telegraphed shots often enough to win on the feet. Mitchell shot a frantic 1-for-14 versus Joanderson Silva and historically scores a modest 92 DK points per win, identical to Said’s average. With both fighters rarely eclipsing 100 and the finish prop sitting near pick’em (-115 ITD), Monk will keep exposure light, noting a decision on either side likely misses the optimal even at mid-range salaries.

Monk said Shara Magomedov is a clear salary trap at $9,600 on DraftKings. Magomedov averages only 92 DK points in victories and needed ten full minutes and two spinning-back-fists to stop Arman Petrosyan— his lone 100-plus score (106). In prior wins he posted 97 (Bruno Silva), 93.5 (Antonio Tricoli) and 74 (Michal Oleksiejczuk), numbers that rarely crack an optimal lineup at this price. Monk knocked Shara’s one-dimensional style: roughly 5.8 significant strikes a minute across all rounds, virtually zero takedown or control-time equity and a predictable need for open-space kickboxing. He added the Russian has limited depth perception after losing vision in one eye, which makes him hittable against a pressure clinch fighter. Monk still expects Magomedov to win, but he plans to be "well under the field," treating Barriault as the better DFS play if the Canadian survives the opening five minutes.

Monk targeted Bogdan Guskov at $7,500 as his preferred side in the week’s must-stack fight. Guskov rebounded from the Volkan Oezdemir loss by starching Zach Pauga and Ryan Spann, then submitting Billy Alencar, showcasing both power and opportunistic grappling. The matchup with Nikita Krylov features abysmal striking defense on both sides (each under 45 %), and only five combined decisions in roughly 60 pro fights. Monk emphasized that five of Krylov’s six fights since 2021 and three of Guskov’s four UFC bouts have landed on DraftKings optimal rosters, making exposure mandatory. Because Krylov is $8.7K—$350 above his career average—while Guskov sits $400 below his, Monk wants heavier dog shares, believing Guskov’s knockout equity easily 13-xes salary.

Monk picked Amanda Ribas to win a decision, citing Tabatha Ricci’s porous strike absorption—5.29 per minute on just 57.8 % defense, ballooning to 6+ in latter rounds. Ribas lands slightly more than Ricci (4+ per minute), absorbs only 3.24, and owns the superior BJJ resume along with better control-time metrics. Monk expects Ribas to mix wrestling and out-work Ricci at range while surviving clinch exchanges. That said, the -350 ‘goes to decision’ line plus Ribas’ modest 96 DK-points-per-win average make her $8.6K salary unattractive. Monk tagged the fight as a “two-star” DFS play, planning minimal exposure and warning that even a clear Ribas victory is unlikely to crack the optimal lineup.

Monk said Carlos Leal is worth paying $9,400 in DraftKings tournaments because his pace should drown 41-year-old Muslim Salikhov. Leal stuffed 17 Renat Fakhrudinov takedowns and still fired 7.0 significant strikes per minute in that bout, and overall averages 9.65 sig. strikes per minute through 19 Octagon minutes. Salikhov throws fewer than 3.5 per minute, so Monk expects Leal to triple him in volume while benefiting from a 10-year youth advantage. Salikhov does retain one-shot power, having knocked down Song Kenan and Francisco Trinaldo, but Monk noted the “King of Kung Fu” has been finished three times in the UFC (once in round 1, twice in round 2). For Leal to smash salary he probably needs one of those finishes—his takedown and control-time numbers are modest—but Monk is willing to chase it in GPPs while acknowledging a decision win would underperform.

Monk endorsed Ibo Aslan as a strong $8.9K tournament play, forecasting a knockout of Billy Elacana. Aslan lands 7.84 sig. strikes per minute, connects on 50% of attempts, and carries a 63% striking-defence rate. Elacana, by contrast, showed a porous 33.8% defence and absorbed 5.5 strikes/min in his short-notice debut where he was steamrolled by Gustav Bahadurzada. The fight is –450 to finish and under 1.5 rounds is juiced, giving Aslan clear slate-breaking upside. Monk’s only caution is if Elacana changes levels—Aslan owns zero recorded takedowns—yet he doubts Elacana’s wrestling chops. Monk will be heavy on Aslan in GPPs, treat Elacana as a secondary dog due solely to variance, and avoid the fight in cash builds.

Monk picked Martin Buday to upset Marcus "Buchecha" Almeida and smash his $7.1K salary. He pushed back on the narrative that Buday is a low-volume plodder, noting the Slovakian heavyweight averages almost five significant strikes per minute, tops five per minute in Round 2, and racks up over a minute of clinch control each frame. Buday also sports 100% takedown defence (4 attempts faced) and is 6-1 in the UFC yet is a +250 underdog for the first time in his Octagon career. Monk questioned Almeida’s ability to absorb strikes, manage cardio, and score enough DK points at $9.1K given his one-dimensional first-round submission style and only six professional MMA bouts. He plans to be overweight on Buday in GPPs, banking on Buday’s volume and clinch grind to break the BJJ ace and deliver a slate-breaking score.

Monk said Damon Blackshear is worth the $9,000 DraftKings tag in every format because he out-classes Davy Grant across the board. Both men land about five significant strikes a minute, but Blackshear owns the better defensive numbers (roughly 10-point edge in takedown defense and similar control-time share despite tougher recent competition). Grant, now 39, has been finished in four of seven losses—each time by submission—which dovetails with Blackshear’s slick grappling and reversal game. Monk acknowledged the betting line (-320) may be a bit wide, yet still expects Blackshear to out-pace Grant in striking exchanges, mix in takedowns, and threaten a sub for a score that can justify top-tier salary.

Monk doubled-down on stacking the five-round Poirier-Holloway trilogy, saying he will "lock-button" the fight into literally every DraftKings lineup—cash games and GPPs alike. At a perfectly balanced $8,000/$8,200 salary split, Monk cannot envision a scenario where one of them fails to post a monster fantasy total. He expects a combined 180-plus significant strikes, with Poirier mixing in a few takedowns and longer, more damaging shots while Holloway piles on volume. Monk noted that even a losing score in the mid-80s could make the optimal if several 9K favorites dud. The matchup’s five-round floor, proven durability on both sides, and mid-tier pricing make it an auto-include core that frees salary for pay-ups without sacrificing ceiling.

Monk cautioned that Kevin Holland’s $9,300 salary carries far more risk than most of the other pay-ups on this 14-fight slate. Although he still expects Holland to win, Monk pointed to a –460 moneyline married to a –170 over 1.5 rounds and nearly 2-to-1 odds the bout sees Round 3. In Monk’s eyes that screams decision rather than an early finish, and a three-round striking match would likely leave Holland in the 75-to-85 point range—well short of smash plays like Dulatov, Ferreira or Gautier who own sub-1.5-round props. He also noted Daniel Rodriguez’s durability (never KO’d in the UFC) and willingness to trade volume that can dampen Holland’s peripheral scoring. Monk will be underweight on Holland compared to the field, only using him when unique builds absolutely need a fifth stud, and will X-out Rodriguez entirely because he still doesn’t see a realistic win path.

Monk was shocked to see Brendan Allen sitting at –205 and the fight –270 to go the distance, calling it "Vettori or bust" on the betting window. He argued Allen is not a relentless chain wrestler and Vettori is no easy mark on the mat, making the Italian’s dog price attractive in both DFS ($7,400) and straight wagers. Because a grinding decision is the likeliest outcome, Monk believes Allen’s $8,800 salary is dead money relative to higher-ceiling favorites, whereas Vettori can pay off with even a modest 70-point decision win that frees salary for 9K studs elsewhere.

Monk pointed out that Nikolai Veretennikov has shown almost no takedown defense, opening a DFS smash path if Francisco Prado decides to wrestle. Prado rarely shoots, but Monk reminded listeners that fighters often unveil new wrinkles when an opponent leaves the door wide open—citing Holly Holm suddenly wrestling Megan Anderson as a precedent. At –145 ML, Prado offers favorite odds at just $8,300, and even two or three surprise takedowns plus top-time could push him over the optimal line on a slate crowded with expensive strikers. Monk will be over the field on Prado exposure while still respecting the variance of an ugly striker-vs-striker matchup.

Monk sided with Ilia Topuria as the rightful –500 favorite and believes the $9,300 salary is still tournament-viable. Topuria has hit the optimal lineup in four straight fights, posting 126 DK points in a five-round domination of Josh Emmett and 110+ in earlier victories. Monk stressed that eight of Oliveira’s 10 UFC defeats have come inside the distance and that he has been knocked down by Makhachev, Gaethje and Poirier in recent bouts. Topuria lands 6.3 significant strikes per minute and blends in opportunistic wrestling—3-for-3 takedowns vs Emmett, 5-for-9 vs Zalal—so an early-to-mid-fight KO or GnP finish is firmly in play. With the fight –800 ITD and under 2.5 rounds at –155, Monk projects 100-plus DK points in the winning builds. He is allocating heavy GPP exposure to Topuria while hedging with Oliveira but maintains that, outside of Jacobe Smith and Pantoja, no other pay-up carries Topuria’s blend of safety and ceiling.

Monk said Alexandre Pantoja at $9,000 is the safest ceiling play on the slate. Pantoja has scored exactly 143 DraftKings points in three straight bouts (Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg) thanks to 9, 8 and 6 takedowns and 15 minutes of cumulative control time. He has appeared in the optimal lineup five fights in a row. Monk highlighted that Kai Kara-France’s 88 % reported takedown defence is hollow because he is still out-controlled 61 % to 39 %; Amir Albazi sat on him for six minutes and Askar Askarov rag-dolled him despite landing only two takedowns. Monk expects Pantoja’s relentless chain-wrestling to suffocate KKF, generate repeat mat returns and another triple-digit DK total. Because $9K is barely above Pantoja’s historical salary average, Monk is locking him in cash and GPP builds, sprinkling small KKF exposure only for game-theory leverage, and even recommends stacking the fight in cash games given the minus-money over-3.5 prop and projected pace.

Monk pivoted to Beneil Dariush once DraftKings salaries posted, explaining that a bout he grades as 50-50 should have you siding with the cheaper fighter. Dariush comes in at $7,800 versus Renato Moicano’s $8,400, giving GPP players instant lineup flexibility. Monk ran through the numbers: Dariush owns an 82 % control-time share in his UFC grappling exchanges and stuffs 81 % of takedowns, compared with Moicano’s 66 % control share and 71 % takedown defense. Even more important for DFS scoring, Dariush’s ground dominance snowballs—he averages almost two minutes of top control in Round 1 and “well over” that in the second and third. Meanwhile Moicano’s takedown and control stats decline as his striking pace rises, creating late-fight opportunities for Benny to rack up mat time and advances. Monk will be “majority overweight” on Dariush, still stacking some Moicano because the fight is –135 Inside-the-Distance, but believes Dariush’s combo of control upside and bargain price makes him one of the slate’s best leverage plays.

Monk said Jack Hermansson is one of the best salary-savers on the UFC 317 DraftKings slate at just $7,400. He noted Hermansson’s three-round wins average 99 DK points, so a decision victory would likely 13x his salary. Monk expects that outcome often because Hermansson owns 80 % takedown defence, lands 5.06 sig. strikes per minute, and limits opponents to 3.69 per minute—defensive numbers that are nearly three times better than Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues, who absorbs 5+ per minute. Rodrigues’ resume worries Monk: Jun-Yong Park was piecing him up before getting stunned, Chidi Njokuani nearly forced a doctor stoppage, and Bruno Ferreira flatlined him. Monk believes the Norwegian’s better cardio lets him snatch Rounds 2 and 3 while Robocop’s porous defence and tendency to fade late create finishing or volume-win upside. Because Rodrigues will carry ownership due to knockout buzz and an $8,800 tag, Monk plans to be overweight on Hermansson and underweight on Robocop, calling the betting line “way too wide” at +185.

Monk likes Hyder Amil at $7,700 to break the slate again despite entering as a +135 underdog. Amil has hit the optimal lineup in all three of his UFC victories, scoring 131, 106, and 96 DK points thanks to relentless output (6.84 significant strikes landed per minute) and opportunistic wrestling. Jose Delgado throws similar volume (6.5 SLpM) but has logged only two short UFC fights, so his shiny defensive numbers may be fraudulent. With the bout −235 to finish inside the distance and sitting in the sweet-spot salary range ($8,500 / $7,700), Monk plans to target both sides heavily but will be overweight on Amil. He believes Amil’s deeper strength of schedule—split decision with Jairzinho Gomes, finishes of Ferny Garcia and Jun-Yong Lee—and superior experience give him the edge in a projected firefight that should deliver 90-plus points to the winner.

Monk advised almost full fade on Tracy Cortez at $8,900, calling her DFS profile "dog-shit." Cortez averages just 85 DraftKings points per win, has cracked the optimal only once in five UFC fights, and has never exceeded an 80-point ceiling except versus non-roster foe Melissa Gatto. Her salary is $600 above her career average and the fight is −550 to go the distance, which kills finishing upside. Viviane Araujo’s 80 % takedown defence likely neutralises Cortez’s wrestling, forcing a low-volume striking match where Cortez lands fewer than 4.0 strikes per minute. Although Monk picks Cortez to win, he insists the price cannot be justified; the only semi-viable play is Araujo as a $7,300 punt for salary relief, but even she averages a meagre 81 points per victory. Net takeaway: get way underweight on this fight and use salary elsewhere.

Monk said Terrance McKinney is one of the easiest click-and-pray targets on the UFC 317 DraftKings slate. McKinney has landed in the optimal lineup in four of his six UFC victories and his opponents have hit the optimal in three of their four wins, signalling that his bouts are DFS gold regardless of winner. Monk expects McKinney to lean on wrestling—he controls 85 % of the grappling time he’s involved in—against Vyacheslav Borshev, whose 43 % takedown defence has led to an 88/12 control-time split against him. Borshev has lost every fight in which he’s been taken down (other than a draw), while McKinney has never even seen Round 3 in his entire career. Monk projects either an early finish or a dominant top-control decision that still piles up 9+ minutes of control and a huge DraftKings total. At an $8,600 salary, he plans to be "a bunch" overweight on McKinney in GPPs, with only punt-level exposure to Borshev for game-theory leverage.

Monk said Jacobe Smith is worth the slate-high $9,900 price tag because the newcomer has the exact DFS scoring profile you need to break a slate. In his DWCS bout Smith piled up 7-of-8 takedowns, six minutes of top control and a Round-2 finish for 139 DraftKings points. Monk expects a similar ceiling here since Nico Price has surrendered seven takedowns and nine minutes of control to Themba Gorimbo and was finished in 38 seconds by Robbie Lawler. Price’s striking defense and chin are in free fall, giving up an average 128 DK points in recent losses. Monk projects that Smith either scores a first-minute KO or racks up repeat takedowns and dominant top control on the way to a finish, a path that would clear the 130-point mark usually required for a $9.9K fighter to land in the optimal lineup. He plans to be “a bunch” overweight on Smith while keeping punt-level exposure to Price only for game-theory leverage.

Monk backed Jamahal Hill as the superior DraftKings play at $7.8K despite Roundtree entering as a slight betting favorite. He noted that neither man has ever completed a UFC takedown (27 combined fights), so the bout projects as a pure striking match where Hill’s 7.0 significant strikes landed per minute dwarf Roundtree’s 3.7. Hill’s cardio metrics are also better: in fourth-round sample time he out-lands opponents 15.8 to 5.0 per minute, whereas Roundtree gets clobbered 13.9 to 3.0. Strength of schedule leans Hill—wins over Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira versus Roundtree’s split over Jacoby and a KO of Chris Daukus. Vegas expects a finish in rounds two or three (-215 under 3.5, yet ‑205 over 1.5), which neutralizes main-event bonus rounds, so Monk treats this like any other mid-tier fight and prefers the cheaper, higher-volume side. He projects a 100-plus DK score for Hill via cumulative striking or late KO and will be overweight in GPPs while keeping Roundtree exposure minimal hedge only.

Monk sided with $8.2K Ignacio Bahamondes, arguing the 6-foot-3 Chilean’s 80-inch reach and relentless output (7.05 significant strikes per minute over 90 UFC minutes) will overwhelm Rafael Fiziev. Fiziev lands a respectable 4.8 per minute but sports just 48 % striking defense, gets out-landed overall, and absorbs a brutal 7.39 per minute in Round 3, where Bahamondes’ cardio shines. Neither fighter aggressively grapples—both own 85 %+ takedown defense—so Monk expects a pure kickboxing match in which Bahamondes’ nine-inch length advantage and higher accuracy (57.5 % defense vs 48 %) tilt the scorecards. The betting line is a tight –130 Bahamondes, but Monk projects 90-plus DFS points through sheer volume with late-finish upside if Fiziev’s chin wilts. He views the fight as a strong mid-tier GPP target while perfectly viable in cash given Bahamondes’ floor of double-digit strikes each round.

Monk forecasted a throwback performance from $9.1K Curtis Blaydes, predicting a barrage of takedowns and top-time against DWCS graduate Rizvan Kuniev. Blaydes has not completed a takedown in his last six bouts but previously mauled Alexander Volkov for 14 takedowns and 20 minutes of control. Monk expects a similar script, noting Blaydes historically attempts at least one shot against every Russian he faces and that Kuniev—as shown by Hugo Kunya stuffing six gimpy attempts—has untested defensive wrestling at the UFC level. Blaydes wins average 108 DK points by finish and 105 by decision; Monk projects a 125-plus score here thanks to ground strikes and advances. With the fight –150 to end inside the distance and Kuniev just $7.1K, Monk will keep minimal hedge exposure in case Blaydes’ chin betrays him, but he is treating Blaydes as an all-format cornerstone and even parlaying him with Melissa Mullins at roughly even money.

Monk advised treating Nazim Sadykhov ($9.4K) vs. Nikolas Motta strictly as a tournament fight. Both men get out-struck by nearly one strike per minute yet own strong takedown defense, creating scramble-heavy chaos that rarely goes to decision (all five Motta losses are finishes; Sadykhov’s lone defeat was a submission). The inside-the-distance line sits at –250, but Monk warned Sadykhov’s salary is $1,000 above his historical average, making him hard to jam into cash builds. He will roster both sides in GPPs—leaning Sadykhov for superior wins over Elder, McKinney and Bonfim—but will completely fade the matchup in double-ups and head-to-heads.

Monk backed $7.4K Bogdan Grad as a live underdog, arguing the bout is far closer than Naimov’s –240 moneyline suggests. Grad averages 5.8 significant strikes per minute, doubles Naimov’s takedown rate (2.0 vs 1.0 per 5 minutes) and owns a superior control-time share. He expects Grad to replicate the chaos Andreas Gustafsson unleashed on Chaos Williams—constant forward pressure, clinch trips and mat returns—while Naimov’s striking volume (2.9 sig-strikes landed per minute) and sub-50% defensive metrics leave him vulnerable. Monk admitted Grad’s 7.84 strikes absorbed per minute is scary but trusts Naimov’s low output to mitigate that risk, calling Grad one of his favorite leverage pieces in large-field GPPs.

Monk cautioned against blindly locking in $9.5K Oban Elliott despite the Welshman being a heavy –550 favorite. Elliott’s DraftKings history is spotty: an 80-point Round-3 KO of Basel Hafez, just 62 points in a grind-fest over Preston Parsons, and one true ceiling game (102 points vs Val Woodburn). Monk noted that Elliott often relies on clinch control rather than pile-driving offense, which caps fantasy output unless an early finish materializes. Ko has been knocked out in both pro losses, so a first-round stoppage is possible, but ownership is expected to crest above 35 %. Monk plans to come in well under that mark in tournaments, play Elliott sparingly in cash, and look elsewhere for high-salary ceilings.