NBC Sports’ projection system flagged the over 9.0 runs as a playable edge. The model blends weather forecasts calling for mild temps and a light breeze to left, Camden Yards’ 1.28 home-run park factor, and the current form of both offenses: New York has already tied an MLB record with 15 homers through its first three games of a series this month, while Baltimore tagged Yankees pitching for four early runs last night behind Ryan O’Hearn’s three-run blast. Although Carlos Rodon has been lights-out across his last two outings, the Orioles’ bullpen owns the league’s worst ERA, and Kyle Gibson is making his season debut, giving the model confidence that late scoring can push the game past the posted 9-run total.

While the model likes New York straight up, it simultaneously shows value grabbing Baltimore at +1.5 runs. The Orioles have covered the runline in seven of their last nine matchups with New York, including last night’s 4-3 victory. Camden Yards’ generous dimensions help keep them within striking distance, and they enter Tuesday with the league’s fifth-best bullpen strikeout rate, a key metric the model weighs heavily for runline wagers. With Kyle Gibson historically limiting hard contact (career 48% GB rate) and the Yankees frequently leaning on a late-inning committee behind Rodon, the projection spits out a 60% probability that Baltimore loses by one or wins outright—enough to clear the +1.5 at standard juice.

The NBC Sports Bet Model recommended laying the -154 moneyline on New York. The algorithm factors in the Yankees’ 17-12 record, Carlos Rodon’s dominant recent form (13 straight scoreless innings, 4 straight games with 8+ strikeouts, 3.50 ERA overall) and Baltimore’s 11-17 mark with Kyle Gibson making his first appearance of 2025. Last night’s narrow 4-3 loss still extended Aaron Judge’s hitting streak to nine games, and the model projects the Bronx lineup to rebound in a favorable lefty-versus-righty matchup at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. With weather and park factors also tilting toward New York, the model shows the Yankees winning this matchup enough to justify the current vig.