NBC Sports Bet's projection strongly suggests taking the Mets to cover the run line of -1.5 against the Blue Jays. Supporting factors include the strong pitching start for Tylor Megill, who posted a 1.80 ERA in his first outing of the season, and a strong Mets pitching staff that currently has a 2.38 team ERA—significantly better than Toronto's 4.43. Although New York has struggled offensively (.188 team batting average), Pete Alonso's recent four-RBI game indicates their key hitter is heating up. With the Mets playing at home and their ace Megill on the mound, NBC Sports Bet sees value in backing the Mets on the run line rather than the moneyline.

NBC Sports Bet Staff leaned toward the Diamondbacks covering the run line at +1.5 against the Yankees. Highlighting recent performance, although the Diamondbacks struggled offensively picking up just three hits in their last win, their pitching has been sharp, including Zach Gallen's 13-strikeout masterpiece. Merrill Kelly, Thursday's starter, allowed just one earned run over 5.1 innings in his last outing, positioning Arizona to keep the game tight.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommended backing the Yankees moneyline against the Diamondbacks, making use of their betting model predictions. Despite the Yankees struggling offensively with 30 strikeouts over the last two games, the tout looks to capitalize on a bounce-back performance and regression to their offensive mean at home behind Carlos Carrasco, whose opening start was rough but limited sample size. The Diamondbacks managed just three hits on Wednesday and could face similar offensive troubles against Carrasco.

NBC Sports Bet Staff supports playing the Orioles on the spread at +1.5 given their recent streaky run-line behavior. Through early season games this year, the Orioles have consistently alternated wins and losses. Notably, every victory of theirs has seen them cover the run line, while every loss they've failed to do so. Coming off a shutout loss yesterday, this pattern suggests an improved performance today and strong likelihood of a bounce-back, making the +1.5 spread an attractive bet.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommends betting on the Baltimore Orioles on the moneyline based on several key factors. Orioles pitcher Charlie Morton has struggled, giving up 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings in his last outing. However, Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck similarly struggled, allowing 4 earned runs and posting a 6.35 ERA in his debut this season. Additionally, the Orioles have demonstrated a clear early-season trend; they alternate wins and losses and, critically, have covered the spread in each win but failed to cover in each loss. Given that yesterday resulted in an Orioles loss (a 3-0 shutout by the Red Sox), NBC Sports Bet Staff sees Baltimore bouncing back today at home. Despite Morton's shaky start, the recommendation implies the betting model projects a positive regression or strong team performance to overcome the pitching issues today.

NBC Sports Bet Staff sees value on the Yankees comfortably covering the -1.5 spread line at Yankee Stadium on Saturday against the Brewers. The Yankees are fresh off an impressive Opening Day win, featuring a solid pitching performance from Carlos Rodon (1 earned run over 5.1 innings) and power hitting with home runs from Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe. Meanwhile, the Brewers struggled offensively, striking out 13 times and scoring only once. New York starter Max Fried, who compiled an 11-10 record with a 3.25 ERA last season, faces Nestor Cortes (9-10, 3.77 ERA), creating a perceived mismatch benefiting the Yankees' lineup. The staff's model indicates higher confidence in the Yankees keeping sustained offensive pressure on Milwaukee, widening the margin beyond 1.5 runs.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommends betting the New York Yankees moneyline (-155) on Saturday afternoon's matchup against the Brewers. Their betting model, which incorporates player statistics, historical performance, player matchups, ballpark factors, and weather forecasts, sees strong value on New York winning outright. This confidence is supported by the Yankees' Game 1 victory this past Thursday, in which they secured a win behind solid pitching by Carlos Rodon (5.1 innings, 1 run allowed, 10 strikeouts as a team) and home runs from Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe. The Brewers, who struggled with 13 strikeouts in Game 1, face former-Yankee Nestor Cortes (3.77 ERA last year), while the Yankees hand the ball to Max Fried, who recorded a solid 3.25 ERA in 2024.

NBC Sports Bet Staff are bearish on the Milwaukee Brewers in their matchup against the Yankees on Saturday. They highlight the Brewers' offensive difficulties on Opening Day, when they managed just 7 hits and struck out 13 times against New York pitching. They face another tough starter in Max Fried, who brings a solid 3.25 ERA from 2024 into his Yankees debut. The NBC betting model supports playing the Yankees on the moneyline and spread, further indicating low expectations for Milwaukee's chances to bounce back offensively in Yankee Stadium against superior pitching.

NBC Sports Bet Staff strongly recommend betting on the New York Yankees moneyline and -1.5 run line on Saturday against the Brewers. Their model identifies value with the Yankees behind new starter Max Fried, who posted an 11-10 record with a 3.25 ERA over 174.1 innings in 2024. Fried faces Milwaukee starter Nestor Cortes, who was more pedestrian last season at 9-10 with a 3.77 ERA. Additionally, the article notes Milwaukee struggled offensively in the opener with just 7 hits and 13 strikeouts, suggesting their lineup could again struggle. The Yankees also won the opener 2-1 behind Carlos Rodon's strong start, indicating their staff is already performing well to begin the season. They also advised the over on the total of 8 runs, suggesting additional confidence in New York's ability to score on Milwaukee pitching.