Responding to Pat Mayo’s list of veteran LIV sleepers, Niall Lyons agreed Lucas Herbert is “kind of perfect” for Royal Portrush. Herbert won his Open qualifier, showing current form and motivation, and Lyons likes how the Australian’s heavy-ball flight and creative short game translate to Portrush’s elevated, tightly-mown greens. Lyons also values Herbert’s coastal pedigree—wins at the Irish Open and Bermuda demonstrate comfort in wind—and believes his LIV schedule kept him under the radar, allowing triple-digit outright prices to linger. With firm conditions expected to reward high-spin approaches and delicate scrambling, Lyons is adding Herbert to his long-shot outright card and sprinkling top-10 placements where books pay extended places.

Niall Lyons bet Matt Fitzpatrick outright at 45-to-1, arguing the Englishman’s game is finally trending back to his 2023 two-win level. Fitzpatrick’s best Open finish—T-20 here at Portrush in 2019—demonstrates basic course comfort, and Lyons thinks the trajectory is again pointing up after consecutive strong DP World Tour outings. He highlighted how Fitzpatrick’s meticulous practice habits (video-recording every driver swing and charting range data) allow him to diagnose slumps quickly; once the braces came off and wedding distractions faded, the driver issues and minor injuries that derailed 2024 started to clear. Lyons believes catching Fitz before a potential Scottish Open spike is key, because another top-5 would chop the Open number into the high 20s. He recommends outrights and each-ways now, plus early DFS exposure before price hikes.

Niall Lyons said Viktor Hovland still carries real win equity at Royal Portrush even though the books have already reacted to his recent run of contention. Lyons pointed out that Hovland owns a “decent record” in this major—top-5 at St Andrews in 2022 and top-15 at Hoylake last year—proof he can handle links winds and the Open’s unique pressure. Because Hovland has been on leaderboards almost every week since early May, Lyons believes the Norwegian arrives with sharper competitive reps than most of the outright favorites. While the current number is slimmer than the triple-digit tickets Hovland rewarded bettors with two years ago, Lyons still views him as a player who can muscle into any Open weekend and refuses to leave him off his betting card or DFS cores.

Niall Lyons likes buying Collin Morikawa now, anticipating his odds will shorten once he tees it up with new caddie Billy Foster. Lyons called Foster a ‘Stevie Williams lite’ who will challenge Morikawa rather than rubber-stamp decisions, exactly the guidance the two-time major winner has lacked. If Morikawa shows anything at the Scottish Open, Lyons expects books to slash the number, so he recommends locking in outrights and DFS exposure early. Morikawa’s precise iron game and prior Open victory already fit Portrush; Foster’s experience on firm links could be the missing piece.

Niall Lyons promoted Patrick Reed as an overlooked placement bet at Royal Portrush. Reed quietly finished T-10 here in 2019 and has the exact mix Lyons wants: elite short game, accurate tee ball that avoids early OB, and proven creativity off shaved run-offs. With Ryder Cup spots back on the table, Lyons expects an extra level of motivation from the American. He is eyeing outright sprinkles at 80-to-1 but prefers top-10 and each-way tickets where Reed’s high floor can cash without needing him to outduel Scheffler or Rahm.

Niall Lyons reversed his earlier enthusiasm and is now fading Min Woo Lee. He believes Lee “lost that momentum” after his Houston Open win; the Aussie’s only notable result since is a T-13 at the Rocket Mortgage. Lyons worries Lee’s driver can get wildly offline, a red flag with Portrush’s OB lines on four of the first five holes. Combine that with inconsistent approach play and gusty conditions, and Lyons no longer sees value around the 70-to-1 range. He recommends reallocating units to steadier ball-strikers like Fox or Hatton.

Niall Lyons doubled down on Ryan Fox, saying 80–90-to-1 outright tags remain “good enough” even after the Kiwi’s second PGA Tour victory. Fox has thrived on links tests—T-3 at Portrush in 2019 qualifying, multiple Dunhill Links top-10s—and stared down Sam Burns in a playoff this season, proof the closing gear is real. Lyons called Fox a classic streak player; when the form spike hits he rattles off consecutive top-20s peppered with wins. Given Fox is in one of those heaters now, Lyons recommends outrights with each-way insurance and top-10 props before the market corrects once casual bettors recall his 2019 Portrush success.

Asked who would win the 2025 Open if price did not matter, Niall Lyons immediately named Jon Rahm. He highlighted that Rahm has flashed in every major this season after two muted years on LIV, showing his all-around game remains major-ready. Lyons likes how the Spaniard’s high, penetrating iron flight suits Portrush’s raised, rock-hard greens and noted Rahm’s proven wind management from past Irish Open wins. Lyons is waiting to see where the outright number settles but believes Rahm belongs on shortlists for outrights and one-and-done formats where price sensitivity is lower.

Niall Lyons said Daniel Hillier remains worth a flutter at triple-digit odds despite spotty form. Lyons conceded Hillier’s around-the-green numbers have been “suspect at times” and that his approach play was dreadful in Germany, but argued Royal Portrush can be a great equaliser. Hillier grew up on firm, wind-whipped tracks, embraces difficult weather rather than complaining about it, and already owns big-stage proof points—a runner-up behind Tyrrell Hatton in Dubai plus a T-20 in last year’s Open. Lyons expects the Kiwi’s comfort in links surroundings and willingness to fly shots onto elevated greens to mask recent weaknesses, giving him live top-20 and each-way upside at 250-1 ranges.

Niall Lyons called Marco Penge a long-term buy and immediate top-40/top-20 bet for Portrush. The 25-year-old followed a T-28 at the PGA Championship—his first major cut—with three straight top-25s on the DP World Tour. Penge’s links résumé includes a 2015 Scottish Amateur Stroke Play win and a Challenge Tour victory last year. Lyons highlighted that Penge gained heavily off the tee in Germany and routinely pushes drives past 310 yards while still ranking above average in fairways hit. After a brief gambling-ban interruption, Penge rebounded with a DPWT win in China and a third in South Africa, showing the ceiling is intact. Lyons thinks the mix of raw length, improving accuracy and proven coastal form makes Penge mis-priced around 150-1 for each-way tickets and placement props.

Niall Lyons flagged Norwegian rookie Kristoffer Reitan as a mega-longshot top-20 bet at 200-1 for the Scottish Open and a name to monitor for Portrush qualification spots. Reitan has exploded over his last seven DP World Tour starts with one win, two runner-ups and a fourth, placing him third in the season-long Race to Dubai card chase behind only Laurie Canter and Martin Kuevr. He ranks top-15 in strokes-gained off the tee and 20th in driving distance, which Lyons says makes his ‘absolute sends-it’ length perfect if Renaissance plays soft and downwind. A streak-y putter gives him ceiling, and Lyons believes a confidence-building top-20 this week would set Reitan up as a legitimate Open sleeper should he earn a spot through Scottish exemptions.

Niall Lyons said Daniel Brown is a live outright and top-10 play for Royal Portrush. Brown finished T-10 at Hoylake last year after grabbing the first-round lead and was only two shots back after both Friday and Saturday. Lyons likes that the 30-year-old owns two DP World Tour wins plus a playoff loss in Bahrain this season, proving he can close. Stat-wise, Brown pairs above-average distance with pinpoint accuracy off the tee, a combo Lyons views as critical on a Portrush layout where missing fairways brings pot bunkers and fescue into play. Brown’s four top-four finishes in other windy, firm events such as the Irish Open and Andalucia Masters reinforce his coastal pedigree. With books still hanging triple-digit outright numbers and juicy each-way terms, Lyons is firing on Brown for placements and a small win sprinkle before the market catches up.

Niall Lyons tacked another caution flag onto his earlier Bryson DeChambeau fade, zeroing in on Portrush’s drivable 5th. The par-4 plays downwind and invites a power fade, but there is a cliff-edge out-of-bounds only ten yards beyond the green. Lyons said Bryson will "need to hold on a little" because his stock 320-plus-yard carry could easily tumble long and straight over the back for instant doubles. With the opening stretch critical—Lyons reiterated that being one or two over after six holes effectively ends a player’s week—he views the 5th as a land mine tailored to Bryson’s all-gas approach. Lyons advised against first-round-leader or outright bets on DeChambeau, arguing one mistimed bomb early could erase any advantage his length provides the rest of the way.

Niall Lyons remains bullish on Sepp Straka at triple-digit odds, arguing the books have flipped prices compared to the U.S. Open where Straka went off 33-to-1 while Viktor Hovland was 40-to-50-to-1. Now Hovland is one-third the price of Straka despite facing the same scrambling test that exposes Hovland’s weakest skill. Lyons likes Straka’s fit at Royal Portrush: top-three in strokes gained tee-to-green at PGA National over his last 12 rounds, second only to Scottie Scheffler in iron play this season, accurate off the tee and capable of catching fire with the flat stick on slower links greens. Although Straka’s recent form has cooled, Lyons still holds a 100-to-1 ticket and says anything 80-to-1 or longer is an auto-bet given the PGA National-to-Portrush correlation he trusts more than any other comp.

Niall Lyons said Jordan Smith is worth a speculative each-way or top-10 ticket at 250-to-1. Lyons acknowledged Smith has burned him at past Opens but still likes the Englishman’s underlying numbers: a consistently strong tee-to-green profile and recent DP World Tour form that has him gaining strokes with both driver and long irons. Lyons reminded listeners that Royal Portrush rewards precise aerial approach play far more than raw power, a box Smith routinely checks when he is dialed in. At books paying eight to ten places, Lyons believes Smith only needs one hot putting week to ‘make the frame’ and provide a sizable payout without actually lifting the Claret Jug.

Lyons compared Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen’s betting profile to Wyndham Clark’s pre-Quail Hollow breakout and suggested grabbing the 80-to-1 currently posted for the Scottish Open with an eye toward rolling profits into Open Championship tickets if the Dane qualifies. Neergaard-Petersen ranks top-10 on the DP World Tour in strokes-gained tee-to-green, owns a top-5 at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and showed he can hang on U.S. major-style tracks with a strong Oakmont finish. Lyons believes those results prove the 23-year-old already controls ball flight in heavy wind and can handle Portrush’s firm, elevated greens once he gets into the field. He advised a modest outright plus top-20 placement this week in Scotland, then monitoring Monday-qualifying and alternate-list news because any confirmed Portrush spot will see books cut his number in half.

Niall Lyons flagged Ryan Fox as a must-sprinkle outright and top-10 play at 60-to-1 to 80-to-1. Fox spent last week walking and practicing at Portrush, a detail Lyons loves because very few contenders have seen the course in firm, 2025 conditions. Fox already owns two worldwide wins in 2024 and historically gains over a stroke per round on coastal, wind-exposed tracks. Lyons reminded listeners the New Zealander nearly captured the 2017 Irish Open at a brutal Donegal links and owns a top-5 strokes-gained profile at PGA National—the same Florida comp course Lyons uses to project Portrush success. With sportsbooks still pricing Fox longer than similar heavy-ball launchers like Henley or Straka, Lyons recommends each-way tickets or straight top-five/top-10s to exploit a mis-shaded ceiling before on-site practice reports move the number.

Niall Lyons advised passing on Bryson DeChambeau at Royal Portrush, calling the current 18-to-1 number (and even 40-to-1 in a dream world) unplayable. Lyons argued Portrush punishes the bomb-and-gouge style because wayward drives tumble into gnarly rough, pot bunkers or impossible fescue angles. He doubts DeChambeau can repeatedly manufacture the high-spin, soft-landing pitches required off tight links lies, noting the American still leans on brute power over touch despite recent Augusta gains. Lyons added that St Andrews is the lone Open venue where Bryson’s driver advantage translates; everywhere else, creativity trumps horsepower. With bookmakers boosting his price on name recognition and new-fan money rather than course fit, Lyons is allocating his outright and head-to-head units elsewhere and suggests bettors do the same.

Niall Lyons said Royal Portrush checks every remaining box for Tommy Fleetwood to grab his first major. Fleetwood already proved he can handle the venue with a runner-up in 2019 and arrives in better all-around form this time: he is 2nd on the PGA Tour in strokes-gained total over the last eight weeks and sits inside the top-20 for strokes-gained around-the-green on the entire season, a stat Lyons considers vital on Portrush’s elevated, tightly-mown putting surfaces. Lyons thinks slower Open-style greens neutralize Fleetwood’s chronic short-putt issues that torpedoed him at the Travelers, allowing his elite long-iron play and wind management to shine. With books hanging 27-1 at Coolbet that could drift to 35-1 if Fleetwood fails to win in Spain, Lyons believes bettors should jump early on outrights, each-ways and DFS cores before the market corrects once weather forecasts confirm gusty conditions that accentuate scrambling.

Lyons planted his flag with Tyrrell Hatton over local favorite Robert MacIntyre, arguing most bettors are ignoring the age-and-experience trend that has produced five winners aged 32 or older in the last seven Opens. Hatton, 33, owns multiple top-10s on firm links like Carnoustie and has substantially more major reps than MacIntyre. Lyons emphasized that Portrush’s raised greens force ‘delicate, saucer-lid chips’—a Hatton specialty that led to his runner-up at PGA National, the comp course Lyons trusts more than any other. With Hatton’s odds nearly identical to MacIntyre’s despite a superior short game and a decade of additional scar tissue in difficult weather, Lyons is backing Hatton in outrights and head-to-head matchups while fading the Scottish narrative steam on Bobby Mac.

Niall Lyons circled Min Woo Lee as a must-bet sleeper, noting the Australian checks every statistical and narrative box he used to miss Shane Lowry with in 2019. Lee owns a runner-up at PGA National, a Scottish Open win, a Vic Open win achieved in 40-mph gusts, and captured the Texas Open this spring, proving he thrives when wind and firm greens demand aerial approaches plus razor-sharp scrambling. Lyons likes that Lee’s recent T-13 in Detroit showed ball-striking form returning after a brief slump and added that Lee now has Shane Lowry’s former caddie on the bag—‘the exact blueprint that lifted Lowry to the Claret Jug.’ With books still dangling 70-1 to 80-1, Lyons recommends outrights with each-way insurance and top-10 props before the market corrects.

Lyons highlighted Cameron Young as the first American he is willing to bet after Scottie Scheffler, grabbing 66-1 outright numbers still hanging in Europe. Young has finished runner-up and T-8 in two Open starts and has been inside the top-7 after seven of his 12 career Open rounds, proof he ‘just sees the shots links golf asks for.’ Lyons added that Young’s contending run at this year’s U.S. Open signals his iron play is peaking, and Portrush’s relatively generous fairways mitigate the driver volatility that normally scares bettors. With a high-ball flight that can still bore through wind and scramble-friendly touch that belies his bomber label, Lyons believes Young carries legitimate win equity at triple the odds of players with similar skill sets.

Niall Lyons put Jordan Spieth near the top of his outright list for Royal Portrush, calling Spieth’s touch around elevated, tightly-mown greens the exact skill that separated Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood in 2019. Lyons reminded listeners Spieth owns eight career Open top-30s and has been inside the top-10 on links layouts more often than any American not named Koepka over the last decade. While Spieth’s form cratered with a missed cut at the Travelers, Lyons said short-game specialists historically rebound quickly and the raised, rock-hard table-tops at Portrush create ‘an up-and-down exam tailor-made for Spieth’s imagination and high-spin wedges.’ If the forecast stays dry, he views Spieth as a buy-low at current mid-tier odds and a core DFS play because around-the-green difficulty levels the field.

Niall Lyons advised fading Brian Harman at the 2025 Open because Portrush will demand aerial approaches rather than the low runners that powered Harman’s Hoylake win. Lyons explained the course has elevated putting surfaces with shaved run-offs, forcing players to hit high-spin flights that hold firm greens. With Northern Ireland’s unusually dry spring, the superintendent wants the track even faster than 2019, further minimizing ground-game options. Lyons contrasted Harman’s low, skiddy trajectories with the success profile from six years ago—Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka—all players comfortable taking it through the wind and stopping it quickly. Unless the forecast flips to heavy, sustained rain, Lyons believes Harman’s skill set is mis-priced in outright markets and would rather allocate those units to high-ball strikers.

Niall Lyons said Tony Finau profiles perfectly for a drier, firmer Royal Portrush. Lyons expects the 2025 setup to play much different than the rain-soaked 2019 edition—raised greens will be rock-hard, the rough may be lighter because Northern Ireland has had an unusually hot, dry spring, and most approach shots must be flown onto tightly-mown table-tops rather than bumped along the ground. Finau already proved he can handle those demands with a T-3 in 2019 and still owns the high, penetrating iron flight Lyons believes is mandatory this time around. Lyons added that Finau’s short-game numbers have quietly improved over the past two seasons, an important box to tick with so many greens expected to be missed. Between the aerial iron play, improved touch around firm run-offs, and proven wind management, Lyons views Finau as a strong outright and DFS target before the markets shorten once the weather forecasts become public.