Hennion took Las Vegas +115 on the moneyline, leaning on new coach Pete Carroll’s 52-34-3 career ATS record as an underdog (60.5%) and 24-16-3 at +3 or shorter. He expects the Raiders’ defense to rebound from 18th to something closer to its 2023 8th-place DVOA now that last year’s league-second-worst injury luck is behind them and the schedule eases. The front already ranked 10th in pass-rush win rate and 12th in run-stop win rate, a scary matchup for a Patriots offensive line that sat 31st and 32nd in the corresponding ESPN metrics. New England finished 30th in offensive DVOA and was never a market favorite in 2024 yet opens 2025 laying a key number. Since 2004, road underdogs in Weeks 1-2 that missed the playoffs and won 4-8 games are 84-38-5 ATS (68.9%), another box the Raiders check.

Hennion backed Miami on the moneyline (-105), noting the franchise is 38-24 straight-up with Tua Tagovailoa under center but only 9-13 without him since 2020. In six Tua-less games last year (Weeks 3-5, 7, 17-18) the Dolphins ranked 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate, yet from Weeks 8-16 with a healthy Tagovailoa they vaulted to 8th and 3rd, respectively. Miami finished 2nd in offensive DVOA in 2023. Indianapolis placed 20th last season and 13th the year prior, giving it a lower ceiling regardless of whether Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones starts. A historical trend—road dogs in Weeks 1-2 that missed last year’s playoffs and won 4-8 games are 84-38-5 ATS (68.9%), including 11-4 ATS when between PK and +1.5—adds support with Miami sitting +1.5 in consensus markets.

Hennion played Atlanta on the moneyline at +118, arguing Tampa Bay’s 2024 offensive leap (20th to 7th in DVOA) is ripe for regression after OC Liam Coen’s departure. Atlanta, meanwhile, climbed from 24th to 14th and keeps play-caller Zac Robinson with an ascendant young QB and strong skill talent. Early Bucs money pushed the line to +2.5 before buy-back on the Falcons, a move Hennion views as confirmation. Since 2005, home divisional dogs in Weeks 1-3 are 66-38-3 ATS (63.5%); at +2 or shorter they’re 11-5-1 ATS. Baker Mayfield is only 8-7 ATS as a favorite in Tampa, 4-3 when laying four or fewer, reinforcing the upset angle.

Nick Hennion grabbed the Giants +6.5 (-105), stressing that Washington’s habit of playing one-score games and New York’s ground-game success last year make the points too generous. The Giants rushed for 125-plus yards in both 2024 meetings, losing by only three once despite losing their kicker on the opening play. Washington’s defense ranked 23rd in DVOA against the fourth-easiest slate of offenses, leaving a late back-door wide open. Hennion also leaned on quarterback Russell Wilson’s lifetime 40-22-2 ATS mark as an underdog (10-3 ATS when catching 6.5 or more) and a historical 62-23-3 ATS record (72.9%) for divisional dogs in Weeks 1-2 that missed last year’s playoffs and stayed within 13 points in the previous matchup.