Nick Holtz recommended passing on David Montgomery at his RB20 price tag. Montgomery averaged 16 touches per game across the past two seasons but is coming off an MCL injury and should cede more opportunities to the far more explosive Jameer Gibbs. Holtz expects Montgomery’s touchdown-driven 2024 fantasy production to regress, especially with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson leaving Detroit, a change he believes will pull down Jared Goff’s and, by extension, Montgomery’s red-zone output. He slots Montgomery as a low-end RB2 and thinks drafters are paying a premium for last year’s scores.

Nick Holtz advised fading Aaron Jones in 2025 drafts despite the veteran’s likable reputation. Jones posted career-high carries and rushing yards last year, but his efficiency is tailing off: yards per carry has declined in back-to-back seasons and he ranked 40th of 46 qualifying backs in missed tackles forced per attempt. Now entering his age-30 season, he heads to Minnesota where Kevin O’Connell has already called the backfield a "1A-1B" split with Jordan Mason, signaling a cut in volume. Combining eroding efficiency, reduced opportunity and typical age-related risk, Holtz finds Jones an unappealing pick at his current cost.

Nick Holtz said drafters should avoid Saquon Barkley at his current early-first-round ADP in 2025 drafts. Barkley logged almost 400 touches during the Eagles’ Super Bowl season, a threshold that has historically preceded injury or sharp production decline; Holtz referenced post-peak examples like Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson and Christian McCaffrey. He added the Madden-cover "curse" to the risk profile and stated he would rank Barkley closer to RB4-5, preferring ascending or sturdier options such as Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. Because virtually everything broke perfectly for Barkley in 2024, Holtz doubts a repeat and sees no justification for spending a top-half first-round pick on him in season-long leagues.