Nick Whalen said he is still out on Joe Mixon even after his ADP slipped to RB15, detailing several fresh red flags. Mixon finished just 27th among running backs with 36 receptions last year, and Whalen stressed that minimal passing-game work limits his PPR floor. Now entering his ninth season, Mixon turns 29 in July and already has more career carries than every active back except Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott. Whalen thinks 2025 could be the mileage cliff year. He also blasted Houston’s run-blocking outlook: the Texans graded as one of PFF’s worst lines in 2024, cut Laremy Tunsil, and replaced him with Cam Robinson, whose 55.6 run-block grade was well below average, while fellow tackle Blake Fisher logged a bottom-of-the-league overall grade. Even a potential Titus Howard move to tackle does little to ease concerns. With Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale available to siphon early-down or short-yardage work, Whalen expects a messy committee. Factoring in age, declining efficiency, poor blocking and depth chart clutter, he refuses to spend a top-45 pick on Mixon and would rather draft Chuba Hubbard, Alvin Kamara or Kenneth Walker in that range.

Nick Whalen is fading Joe Mixon after Houston’s surprise signing of Nick Chubb signaled worry about Mixon’s mileage. Mixon started 2024 hot but averaged only 51 rushing yards and 3.4 YPC over his final eight games while catching just 36 passes (27th among RBs). Now 28, entering his ninth NFL season with more career carries than any active back except Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott, Mixon shows classic wear-and-tear signs. Whalen stresses that Mixon’s limited receiving role caps his PPR floor, and Chubb’s presence threatens both early-down volume and goal-line work. Given the Texans’ late-season offensive slump and Mixon’s eroding efficiency, Whalen sees little upside at his current draft slot.

Nick Whalen cautioned against spending a top-three pick on Saquon Barkley after last year’s 378-touch, 2,000-yard explosion. Barkley logged 345 carries and played over 1,000 snaps, numbers Whalen thinks Philadelphia will scale back now that they’ve ‘climbed the mountain.’ Despite all that volume, Barkley posted a career-low 33 receptions and relied on breakaways: eight of 15 TDs came from 20+ yards, four from 65+ yards. Whalen doubts year-over-year repetition of 5.8 YPC big-play efficiency, particularly with the tush-push still funneling goal-line scores to Jalen Hurts (29 rushing TDs last two seasons). Historically, backs coming off all-time seasons—Peterson, Lewis, Henry, Tomlinson—have seen sharp production drop-offs and injury risk the following year. Whalen thinks the precedent, combined with reduced passing-game usage and goal-line competition, makes Barkley unlikely to return elite value at his lofty cost.

Nick Whalen warned that James Cook’s 2024 RB8 finish was propped up by an unsustainable 18 total touchdowns—16 on the ground that tied the league lead. Cook actually logged fewer snaps, routes, and carries than he did in 2023, so Whalen views the TD spike as a clear outlier. Heading into 2025 he expects more red-zone work to shift back to Josh Allen’s legs, while rookie hammer Ray Davis vultures short-yardage attempts and Ty Johnson siphons receiving snaps on a WR-thin roster. Cook is also in a contract dispute, adding another layer of uncertainty. With his NFFC ADP at RB14, Whalen argues drafters are paying for the repeat of a touchdown rate that’s unlikely to recur given the reduced opportunity profile.

Nick Whalen said he is passing on Aaron Jones at his current RB25 price despite last year’s RB14 finish. Jones turns 31 mid-season and logged career-high usage in 2024 (255 carries, 306 touches), a workload Whalen believes Minnesota wants to scale back. Kevin O’Connell already called newcomer Jordan Mason the “1B,” hinting at a true committee and ceding most goal-line carries after Jones converted only 3-of-24 totes inside the 10 for touchdowns. Whalen also pointed to Jones’ long injury history in Green Bay, his meager seven total TDs despite 17 healthy games, and uncertainty around a J.J. McCarthy‐led offense that might not repeat last year’s top-10 scoring rate. Given the risk of reduced volume, age-related decline, and touchdown volatility, Whalen prefers upside rookies or cheaper backs like Tony Pollard and Isiah Pacheco in that draft range.

Nick Whalen urged drafters to fade Travis Hunter at his current top-50 best-ball price. Whalen loves Hunter’s talent but listed a laundry-list of risks that outweigh the upside: (1) no guarantee on snap share because Jacksonville is still debating how often to deploy him at corner versus receiver; (2) Brian Thomas, already a top-10 fantasy wideout as a rookie despite half a season with Mac Jones, remains the clear alpha and unlikely to surrender many targets; (3) concerns about Hunter’s slight frame holding up to an NFL workload after playing both ways in college; (4) Trevor Lawrence has yet to prove he can elevate multiple fantasy pass-catchers; (5) the Jaguars’ franchise track record of squandering elite prospects. Whalen added that the adjustment from Colorado to the NFL is massive and that more reliable veteran receivers are routinely available in the 60-70 overall range. He is comfortable sitting out and letting someone else bet on the rookie’s perfect-scenario ceiling.

Nick Whalen argued that drafting 32-year-old Mike Evans at a slight WR discount is still risky because volume is likely to drop. With Chris Godwin healthy, first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka, and second-rounder Jalen McMillan crowding the room, Evans’ target share could revert to the pre-injury split that saw him average just 4 catches and 48 yards per game. Whalen also highlighted the historical precedent: since 2000 only 12 players have topped 1,000 yards in their 12th NFL season. Factor in minor injury flare-ups and the loss of OC Liam Coen, and Whalen believes Evans’ league-leading touchdown pace (24 over the last two years) is due for a slowdown, making the veteran a fade in 2025 drafts.

Nick Whalen warned that Terry McLaurin’s WR17 ADP bakes in last year’s outlier efficiency. McLaurin scored 13 touchdowns on just 83 receptions—finding the end zone on nearly 16% of his catches—even though he logged only seven games with eight-plus targets and finished outside the top-20 in total targets. Whalen doubts that strike rate repeats, noting new target competition from Deebo Samuel and the difficulty of maintaining such efficiency even with ascending QB Jayden Daniels. He expects serious touchdown regression and sees limited upside relative to draft cost.

Nick Whalen thinks Zay Flowers is overpriced at WR27 because his 2024 profile offered more floor than ceiling. Flowers finished as the WR25 overall but was WR36 on a per-game basis, turning in five games below six PPR points and only four true ‘splash’ weeks. Despite Lamar Jackson’s 41-TD career year, Flowers scored just four times and saw only seven red-zone targets—fewer than Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, or Rashod Bateman. With Derrick Henry and Jackson likely soaking up goal-line touches and Baltimore maintaining an egalitarian passing attack, Whalen expects regression in total passing TDs and believes Flowers’ limited scoring opportunities make it hard to pay current ADP.

Nick Whalen advised fading Jamison Williams at his current WR25 price tag because the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson removes the creative play-calling that manufactured most of Williams’ splash plays. Williams produced five receptions of 50+ yards last season and 11 of his 14 career touchdowns have come from 30 yards or longer, yet he drew fewer red-zone targets than Demarcus Robinson and Deontay Johnson. Whalen emphasized that Williams offers almost no middle-of-field volume and carries durability concerns after missing two games last year. Without Johnson scheming deep reverses and go-routes, Whalen doubts those long touchdowns will repeat and prefers steadier names like DK Metcalf, Xavier Worthy, and DeVonta Smith being drafted in the same range.

Nick Whalen urged listeners to stash Keon Coleman, banking on a classic sophomore leap. Buffalo spent the 33rd overall pick on Coleman last year and still views him as the long-term WR1 despite a quiet rookie finish (10-of-29 catch stretch after ankle injury). With only Khalil Shakir entrenched and a journeyman mix of Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel and Josh Palmer behind him, Coleman faces little resistance for a jump in target share. Whalen is betting on raw traits—6'4", 215 with above-average contested-catch rate—and the benefit of catching passes from Josh Allen, whose offenses have ranked top-5 in points three of the last four seasons. He thinks the Bills will condense their target tree after leading the league in players with 25-plus receptions. If Coleman simply climbs to a 20 % target share, that’s 110-plus looks in an offense that averaged 37 attempts per game. Whalen recommends drafting Coleman in the double-digit rounds wherever managers can swing for upside.

Nick Whalen labeled Rashod Bateman a screaming value at WR58 (around pick 150). Bateman finally flashed last season, turning just 45 catches into 9 scores thanks to a 15.7-yard aDOT and Lamar Jackson’s career-best 41-TD campaign. Whalen concedes some touchdown regression is likely but reminds drafters the former first-rounder is still only 25, just signed an extension, and plays in one of the NFL’s most efficient attacks. Even if Lamar regresses to the low-30s in TDs, Baltimore’s scheme and Bateman’s perimeter role keep him primed for big plays. The signing of 32-year-old DeAndre Hopkins does not scare Whalen, who views Hopkins as more of an Odell-replacement than a target hog. At his price, Bateman offers WR3/4 floor with spike-week WR2 upside in best-ball or managed formats.

Nick Whalen argued that Jakobi Meyers remains mis-priced at WR39 despite inevitable target dip. Meyers ripped off 20 receptions of 20-plus yards last season—more than Ja'Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London or Amon-Ra St. Brown—while catching passes from a rotation of backup-level quarterbacks. Whalen expects Pete Carroll to keep Las Vegas near league-average pass rate, but the real difference is Geno Smith’s accuracy. Smith posted a 67 % completion rate and top-10 EPA per drop-back over his last two Seattle seasons; Whalen sees that translating to “higher-quality fantasy targets” for Meyers. The wide-out saw just 14 red-zone looks and scored four touchdowns (two in Weeks 17-18). With Smith’s career 5.1 % TD rate and continued soft target competition behind Davante Adams and rookie TE Brock Bowers, Whalen projects a meaningful touchdown uptick that can offset any volume loss. He is happily scooping Meyers in Round 8 as a weekly WR2/FLEX with legit spike-week potential.

Nick Whalen once again planted his flag on Jakobi Meyers who is somehow the WR39 despite finishing WR19 last year (in 15 games) and logging four straight top-30 seasons. Myers accomplished that with a who’s-who of backup-level passers—Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, Desmond Ridder, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Mac Jones, and Bailey Zappe. 2025 brings Geno Smith, a clear upgrade. While Pete Carroll’s arrival and Ashton Jeanty’s presence should make the Raiders less pass-happy than 2024 (4th in attempts), Carroll’s final two Seattle squads still threw at league-average rates. Target competition remains light: Davante Adams commands attention, Brock Bowers co-exists, but day-three rookies Jack Bech and Dante Thornton are developmental. With Smith likely to deliver more efficient volume, Whalen believes another 120-plus targets and mid-WR2 finish are squarely in play, making Myers a screaming value in the mid-eighth round.

Nick Whalen spotlighted Josh Downs as a ninth-round steal (WR46, after pick 100). Downs stacked 771 yards as a rookie and followed with 72-803-5 in only 14 games last year while commanding a 22 % target share (top-25 league-wide) and 2.3 yards per route run. Although Indianapolis’ quarterback room is volatile, Whalen believes the market has over-reacted. He expects more starts from newly acquired Daniel Jones than Anthony Richardson, calling Jones a better stylistic fit for Downs’ slot-heavy, middle-of-field route tree and a higher weekly floor. The talent profile, role continuity, and depressed ADP make Downs one of the few receivers available in Round 9 with legitimate weekly WR2 upside.

Nick Whalen argued that Chris Godwin is mis-priced as WR31 (often falling into the 70–80 overall range). Whalen reminded listeners that Godwin was the fantasy WR2 through Week 7 last season, fresh off a 36-point eruption in Week 6, before suffering an ankle dislocation. Because the injury was a straightforward dislocation—not a tendon or ligament tear—Whalen is less concerned about long-term explosiveness than he would be with an ACL or Achilles. The Buccaneers return every major offensive piece from last year’s top-10 unit, including Baker Mayfield coming off a career season. Rookie wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan project as future replacements rather than immediate target siphons, and Whalen even questioned 31-year-old Mike Evans’ durability more than Godwin’s. With Godwin’s ADP in the same neighborhood as Rome Odunze, Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy, and a round behind Jamison Williams, Whalen believes the market is over-penalizing the ankle and advised scooping him up in the sixth round as a clear upside play.