OddsTrader advises fading Shohei Ohtani's home run prop against the Cubs and pitcher Colin Rea. Their AI model assigns only a 15% chance of an Ohtani homer tonight. They point to Ohtani's high 30.6% strikeout rate and concerning 47.1% ground ball rate against right-handers this season as justification. His ISO (.214) and wOBA (.394) appear solid, but his elevated walk rate (near 25%) cuts into homer opportunities. Moreover, opponent Colin Rea has succeeded against lefties, inducing 50% ground balls with limited ISO (.125), making Ohtani less likely to clear the fences in this matchup.

OddsTrader advises taking the under on 4.5 hits allowed by Kodai Senga in his matchup against the Athletics. They highlight Oakland's struggles against right-handed pitching, evidenced by their modest .147 ISO and .313 wOBA from the projected lineup. Although Senga has shown a tendency to allow hard contact to lefties (.238 ISO, .455 wOBA), Oakland has only one dangerous left-handed hitter, Tyler Soderstrom. Additionally, Senga boasts excellent peripherals with a 62.5% ground ball rate, low line-drive and fly-ball rates (both at 16.7%), and a robust 30% strikeout rate through his initial 40-batter sample. This matchup profile positions Senga to keep hits below the posted line.

OddsTrader recommends backing Julio Rodriguez over 0.5 total bases against Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers. Despite facing an effective veteran in Eovaldi, Rodriguez is projected at 1.6 total bases and continues to produce solid underlying metrics including a .243 ISO, .333 wOBA, and impressive 65.4% hard-contact rate. He's also hitting 30.8% fly balls and holds a 7.7% barrel rate, but a low .208 BABIP indicates he's due for positive regression. Given these numbers, even if Eovaldi suppresses Rodriguez early, he is expected to capitalize on subsequent plate appearances against the bullpen, comfortably achieving at least one total base.

OddsTrader advised taking Kumar Rocker to go under 4.5 strikeouts (-105) against the Seattle Mariners, noting the AI Model projects him for just around 3.6 strikeouts in this matchup. Rocker has managed just a modest 10.5% strikeout rate across his first 38 batters this season while drawing groundballs rather than swings-and-misses. He faces a disciplined Mariners lineup striking out less than 19% of the time versus right-handed pitching, featuring three particularly difficult hitters who strike out less than 8.5% against righties. Rocker's underlying numbers and the Mariners' contact-oriented offensive approach make sustaining a high strikeout rate challenging, making the under an attractive wager.

OddsTrader recommended betting Chase Dollander to go over his 3.5 strikeouts line (-150) against the San Diego Padres. The AI Model projected Dollander to notch approximately 6 strikeouts (5.999) for the game. Dollander impressed in his MLB debut, striking out six batters in five innings, achieving a robust 27.3% strikeout rate with just a 4.5% walk rate. While he had elevated ISO and wOBA numbers against lefties during his debut, OddsTrader expects improvement over time, particularly against the Padres' lineup that has struggled with a .088 ISO and .304 wOBA versus righties so far this season. The Padres also feature five hitters who've struck out at a 20% or greater rate against right-handed pitching this year. Due to Dollander's promising ability to generate whiffs and the Padres' aggressive tendencies at the plate, OddsTrader sees value in comfortably backing the over.

OddsTrader highlighted value in rookie pitcher Roki Sasaki allowing fewer than 3.5 hits (+108) against the Chicago Cubs. The AI Model projected Sasaki would surrender only approximately 2.333 hits in the contest. Despite Sasaki's early struggles with walks (20.7% walk rate), he has demonstrated terrific contact management, evidenced by a .000 ISO and low .327 wOBA against his first 29 MLB hitters. The Cubs' lineup features four batters producing minimal power, each with an ISO below .122 against right-handed pitching this season. Given Sasaki's knack for limiting fly balls and the Cubs' modest power numbers, OddsTrader considers the under on hits allowed an excellent value bet.