Pat Mayo built a quick Royal Troon model weighting driving distance 66 % and accuracy 34 %. Only ten players ranked Top-50 in both buckets, and Thorbjorn Olesen was the lone European in that elite group despite the sample excluding his stronger DP World Tour data. Mayo argued that combination of controlled distance and fairway finding is exactly what this Open demands because anyone missing the short grass will be hacking out of "real rough"—thick fescue just a pace off the fairway. Olesen’s ability to club down adds another layer of safety, and Mayo stressed that his recent form on links-style setups has been solid even if U.S.-based bettors have not noticed. With Olesen still sitting in triple-digit outright territory and widely ignored in Top-20/40 markets, Mayo said, “We gotta bet Olesen now; if he pops I’ll kick myself forever,” recommending outright sprinkles plus Top-20 tickets before sharper money closes the gap.

Pat Mayo revealed he added Chris Kirk deep down the outright board and will look for top-20/30 props as well. Mayo connected Royal Troon’s profile to Florida venues like PGA National and TPC Sawgrass — spots where Kirk thrives by keeping the ball in play and leaning on a streaky putter. He emphasized that Open winners skew older than winners of the other majors, making the 39-year-old’s veteran savvy an under-appreciated asset. With Troon’s tiny, elevated greens rewarding precise second shots and short-game touch, Mayo believes Kirk’s ability to flight wedges plus scramble efficiently positions him to cash long-number tickets.

Pat Mayo doubled-down on Chris Kirk as a triple-digit outright he trusts more than the boom-bust youngsters in the same range. Mayo argued that recent Champion-Golfer history overwhelmingly skews toward seasoned players – citing Darren Clarke (age 42), Henrik Stenson (40), Zach Johnson (39) and last year’s winner Brian Harman (36) – while true prodigy breakthroughs such as Collin Morikawa remain the exception. Kirk’s age-38 résumé fits that pattern and, in Mayo’s view, pairs perfectly with his earlier case for Kirk’s PGA National comp wins and top-10 fairway-gained/around-the-green numbers. With Royal Portrush punishing wild tee shots and requiring veteran guile in the wind, Mayo prefers Kirk’s "seen it all" toolbox to the raw ceilings of Davis Thompson or Daniel Berger at similar odds. He reiterated that Kirk at 100-to-1 outright plus 8-to-1 Top-10 bets offers a sturdier path to profit than chasing unproven kids simply hoping for a spike week.

Pat Mayo spotlighted Chris Kirk at 100-to-1, tying Kirk’s value to his proven success on close comp tracks—wins at PGA National and Kapalua, both venues featuring slow, grainy greens and penal misses off the tee. Mayo noted Kirk’s form is sneaky good: solo 2nd in a Rocket Mortgage playoff, T12 at the U.S. Open, and a handful of top-30s where a single cold round masked otherwise elite tee-to-green numbers. Kirk ranks 9th in driving accuracy over his past 24 rounds and sits 14th in strokes-gained around the green, skills Mayo believes are paramount at Portrush once the wind kicks up. With books offering 8-to-1 for a Top-10 and triple-digit outright tickets, Mayo is betting Kirk outright and top-eight each-way, trusting the 39-year-old’s veteran guile and buttery-smooth swing to lurk all weekend.

Pat Mayo argued Nick Taylor deserves a place on outright cards at 140-to-1 given the Canadian’s under-the-radar heater: 4th at the Memorial, 13th at the Canadian Open, 23rd at the U.S. Open, 17th at the Travelers, and 22nd last week in Scotland. Taylor is striping fairways (67% over that stretch), ranking top-25 in strokes-gained approach, and remains one of the TOUR’s streakiest putters—exactly the combination Mayo targets for a volatile Open setup. While Taylor lacks raw distance, his fairway-first profile keeps big numbers off the card, and Mayo believes the current run shows a player comfortable on firm, windy venues. At books still hanging double-digit each-way places, Mayo is locking in both a fractional outright and a Top-20 prop, calling Taylor “the most consistent he’s ever been right when Portrush rewards that skill set.”

Pat Mayo flagged Si Woo Kim as a sneaky outright/each-way play now that he has replaced Ernie Els in the field at a 140-to-1 sticker. Mayo loves how Kim’s laser-straight driving (8th on TOUR in fairways-gained) neutralizes Royal Portrush’s out-of-bounds corridors and thinks the tournament’s traditionally slower greens hide Kim’s weakness on slick surfaces. Every time the Korean gains strokes putting he tends to flirt with a top-10, and Mayo believes Portrush’s small, undulating greens offer that very opportunity. The profile mirrors Kim’s win at THE PLAYERS—another stout tee-to-green test where accuracy and tidy scrambling dominated. Because price-sensitive books are still dealing 8-to-1 or better on a Top-10 finish, Mayo plans to pair a fractional outright with an each-way block, convinced Kim has far more win equity than most triple-digit longshots on the board.

Pat Mayo said the 60-to-1 outright number on Justin Thomas looks enormous compared to the elite talent we know JT owns, but he still will not click it. Mayo noted Thomas has now gone nine straight majors without a single top-25 and appears completely "lost in major-championship golf," hemorrhaging strokes with both his driver and the putter on the biggest stages. Mayo compared the price to names with far less pedigree that he has bet before, yet argued the length of JT’s drought and a putter that ranks 147th in strokes-gained putting this season make the ticket feel more like charity than value. Until Thomas shows any sign of reversing the slide—something a back-door 65 on a soft Sunday at the Scottish Open does not prove—Mayo believes even a juicy 60-1 is a trap best avoided for outright bettors.

Pat Mayo—normally an "Anti-Adam Scott" bettor—said Scott’s even-keel profile is tailor-made for Royal Portrush. The Aussie’s elite lag putting and proven comfort on slow, undulating greens should mitigate the three-putt landmines that trip up aggressive bombers. Mayo also highlighted Scott’s ability to keep his ball in play off the tee and his long-running success on coastal links (multiple Open top-10s). With sportsbooks still hanging numbers around 70-to-1, Mayo believes Scott offers safer floor and comparable upside to many of the win-less names sitting in the 20-to-50 range. He is adding Scott to both his outright and each-way cards, calling him the "even-Steven" antidote to an otherwise volatile betting board.

Pat Mayo warned that Min Woo Lee’s volatility off the tee makes him a dangerous outright at triple-digit odds. Mayo likes Lee’s overall links resume— strong finishes at PGA National, elite short game, and pop-off driving distance—yet stressed that Portrush has out-of-bounds lurking on multiple holes where an errant driver could end a tournament. Lee’s iron play remains unreliable and Mayo doubts he will find enough fairways to capitalize on the gettable opening stretch. While he acknowledges Lee’s ceiling week can absolutely win, Mayo prefers Hideki in the same price zone and will only consider Lee if the number balloons well past 100-1 or in boom-bust DFS builds rather than his betting card.

Pat Mayo revealed Russell Henley as the first name he clicked in the 50-to-100 outright zone, grabbing 75-to-1. Mayo tied Henley’s appeal to his proven success on two key comp tracks: Royal Birkdale (T6 in 2017) and PGA National, both venues that reward conservative tee shots and precise long-iron play in sustained wind—the exact skill set Portrush demands. Henley’s age (35) also lines up with the Open’s tendency to crown seasoned players rather than 20-somethings. With the market obsessing over bombers and ignoring Henley’s steady fairway-first profile, Mayo believes 75-to-1 plus each-way places is a mis-price worth attacking before tee-time draw and weather chop the number down.

Pat Mayo said he plans to pounce on Collin Morikawa if the outright number drifts north of 40-to-1 (he saw 44s already). Mayo argued the market is asleep on Morikawa because of last week’s Scottish Open missed cut, yet reminded listeners that Morikawa famously missed the Scottish cut the year he lifted the Claret Jug. Mayo thinks the books are ignoring how much the two–time major winner has "cleaned up his short game," eliminating the up-and-downs that plagued him early in the season. With virtually no industry buzz pushing the price down, Mayo expects further drift and wants Morikawa on his betting card once the 40-plus sticker appears, viewing the bet as pure value on an elite iron player who already owns a proven links ceiling.

Pat Mayo reiterated that Sepp Straka belongs on outright cards even after the market snapped up his triple-digit number. Mayo grabbed 100-to-1 months ago and noted the Austrian has been bet down to 50-to-1, but he still considers Straka “as trustworthy as any of the names in the 20-to-30 range who haven’t actually won anything this year.” With Rahm, Xander, Fleetwood and company entering Portrush win-less in 2024, Mayo sees very little separation and thinks Straka’s consistent form makes him a live bullet. For listeners who missed the early price, Mayo pointed them to a CoolBet boost that bumps Straka back to the 60-to-65 range—a number he thinks is playable given the potential weather volatility and the lack of proven winners directly above him on the board.

Pat Mayo argued that Adam Scott is one of the week’s most under-priced outright bets, calling the Aussie’s 80-to-1 Open Championship number ‘out of whack.’ Mayo acknowledged that Scott hasn’t recorded a single top-15 finish this season, but believes bookmakers have over-corrected. Scott ranked T12 in strokes-gained approach at Oakmont and still carries elite long-iron pedigree—an asset that historically separates contenders at Royal Portrush. Mayo added that Scott already owns a Claret Jug near-miss (2012) and has multiple top-10s in wind-exposed coastal setups. At a deeper price than names like Justin Rose (45-1) and Cameron Young (50-1), Mayo views Scott as a plus-EV flyer for outrights and top-10 markets.

Pat Mayo said Russell Henley is now a lock for his outright card after digging into a five-year Open-only strokes-gained filter. Henley is gaining 1.05 strokes per round across eight Open starts, a top-15 mark in the entire 2025 field despite never landing a flashy finish. Mayo thinks that quiet productivity signals hidden upside once Portrush’s elevated greens and tight run-offs put a premium on Henley’s precise irons and tidy scrambling. He noted the early-week forecast shows only 12-to-18-mph breezes Thursday-Friday—ideal for Henley’s fairway-finding driver—while possible 30-mph Sunday gusts will reward his damage-control short game. With 60-to-1 numbers still posted, Mayo recommends locking in outrights and each-ways before books realize Henley owns the same Open strokes-gained profile as course-fit darlings Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood. He also flagged Henley as a low-owned DraftKings play for balanced builds that emphasize cut-making security.

Pat Mayo called Aaron Rai a sneaky top-20 and each-way play for the Open despite acknowledging concerns about his lack of distance and mediocre putting. Rai still ranks 21st in Mayo’s long-term model thanks to elite fairway-finding (top-5 in fairways gained) and solid mid-iron numbers on 200-plus-yard par-3s—key yardages at Royal Portrush. Mayo reminded listeners that Rai owns two links-course trophies: the 2020 Scottish Open and the 2018 Alfred Dunhill Links, proof he can navigate firm, wind-exposed setups. Although bigger hitters may outmuscle him on the drivable 5th, Rai’s dual-glove accuracy should keep him out of Portrush’s early out-of-bounds corridors, giving him a high floor for placement bets and balanced DFS builds. Mayo will consider outrights only if the market leaves him at 150-1 or longer.

Pat Mayo lumped Ludvig Aberg with Viktor Hovland as players to fade at Royal Portrush despite their elite tee-to-green ceilings. Mayo likes Aberg at flatter venues like Renaissance Club, but Portrush’s elevated greens and shaved run-offs create an ‘up-and-down exam’ that exposes Aberg’s worst skill. Over his last 50 rounds the Swede sits outside the top 120 in strokes gained around-the-green and has lost strokes in that category in seven of his last nine starts. Mayo believes those numbers are disqualifying on a course where missed greens are inevitable in 20-mph winds. Unless Aberg produces a historically great ball-striking week, Mayo expects double-bogey blow-ups and is steering clear of outrights, DFS cores and head-to-head bets involving the rookie.

Pat Mayo moved Daniel Berger to his fade list for Royal Portrush after checking real-time Scottish Open stats. Berger is third in approach this week but has bled two strokes putting and four strokes around the green, continuing a month-long trend of short-game implosions once the Tour left Florida and California. Mayo stressed Portrush will magnify those issues because misses around elevated greens require soft-landing flop shots rather than the simple gouges Berger leaned on at Oakmont and Pinehurst. Until Berger shows even neutral performance in scrambling and putting, Mayo refuses to invest in outrights, placements or DFS shares, arguing the former world No. 12 now needs an outlier ball-striking week just to make the cut.

Pat Mayo said he is ready to sprinkle Harry Hall in outright and placement markets once books finally post his Open Championship number. Hall enters Portrush on a heater—he is gaining strokes in all four categories over his last 20 rounds, including a perfect six-for-six stretch of positive approach weeks and a top-15 at the Scottish Open. Mayo noted Hall’s profile is the opposite of the typical long-shot dart: the Englishman ranks top-10 in strokes gained around-the-green and putting over both 12- and 24-round samples, giving him the scrambling chops Portrush’s elevated, tightly-mown greens demand. Because Hall has never contended in a major, Mayo prefers each-way and top-20 tickets but said he will take any triple-digit outright price that appears, calling Hall “JJ Spaun with a hot putter who actually likes firm links.” DFS players looking for sub-5% ownership in the low-7K range should also take notice.

Although Lucas Glover cracked Mayo’s top 10 in both the 12- and 50-round versions of his Fantasy National model, Pat Mayo urged listeners to resist the temptation. Glover’s surge is driven by hot putting—an outlier for a career-long negative putter—and a recent run on soft, parkland layouts that bear little resemblance to firm, wind-exposed Portrush. Mayo reminded bettors that Glover has missed six of his last seven Open cuts and ranks outside the top 100 in strokes gained around-the-green on tightly-mown surfaces, a weakness that Portrush’s shaved run-offs will magnify. With books cutting Glover to 90-to-1 on the back of computer-model steam, Mayo is fading him in outrights and DFS, preferring similarly-priced strikers like Russell Henley or Sepp Straka who have proven links resumes.

Pat Mayo singled out Aaron Rai as a smart placement bet for Portrush after the Englishman landed inside the top 25 of every weighted category in his custom model. Rai sits top-10 in fairways gained over both 12- and 50-round samples and ranks 15th in approach from 175-200 yards—the exact par-3 yardage that dominates Royal Portrush. Mayo stressed that Portrush punishes wayward tee shots with out-of-bounds on four of the first five holes, an area where Rai’s dual-glove accuracy gives him an edge. Combine that with proven links pedigree (Scottish Open win, multiple Irish Open top-10s) and a career scoring average nearly a stroke better in windy conditions, and Mayo likes top-20 and each-way tickets at 80-to-1 or longer while keeping a DFS pool share for balanced builds.

Pat Mayo warned bettors to avoid Davis Thompson in full-tournament outrights and Sunday match-ups despite the rookie’s eye-catching statistical profile. Thompson popped seventh overall in Mayo’s Portrush model thanks to strong approach play and above-average length, but Mayo stressed a glaring pattern: Thompson repeatedly craters in round four. Citing PGA Tour splits, Mayo noted Thompson loses nearly 1.2 strokes to the field on Sundays—worst among anyone ranked in his model’s top 20—and has converted zero top-five opportunities into a podium this season. Mayo’s actionable angle: consider Thompson for first-round-leader or 54-hole placement tickets where his fast starts still hold value, but cash out or hedge before Sunday because “the guy’s been absolutely just a loser in round four.”

Pat Mayo flagged Hideki Matsuyama as a surprise riser in his freshly-built Fantasy National model and thinks the 33-year-old is an undervalued outright and DFS play for Royal Portrush. Over the past 12 measured rounds Hideki sits third in approach and 20th around-the-green, exactly the two stats Mayo weighted most heavily. Off-the-tee numbers are ugly (below-average distance and fairways), but Mayo argued Portrush minimizes driver volume and rewards precise irons that stick to the elevated, rock-hard greens. Matsuyama already flashed Open chops with a sixth-place finish as an amateur and, after a quiet 2024, has gained on approach in five straight starts while finally making putts on slower surfaces. Mayo likes catching him before the market notices the ball-striking rebound and says anything 50-to-1 or longer is click-worthy for outrights with top-10 insurance in betting cards and DFS builds that emphasize scrambling.

Pat Mayo said Sepp Straka’s victory at the Truist Championship—where he “beat every good player in the world on a tough Philadelphia Cricket Club setup”—finally erased doubts about his ability to close elite fields. With two PGA Tour wins this season (John Deere, Truist) and a runner-up at the 2023 Open already on the resume, Mayo considers Straka’s 66-to-1 outright tag a bargain. He noted that despite three missed major cuts in 2024, Straka’s ball-striking remained solid; cold putting inflated the missed-cut optics. Mayo subscribes to the Byron Nelson rule that most major winners logged a prior runner-up in a major—Straka checks that—and believes bettors who have not yet been burned by him in 2024 should jump on the current number before it shortens. He is sprinkling outrights and using Straka in DFS builds that emphasize fairway-finding and approach play.

Pat Mayo said he cannot click Sungjae Im at current 60-to-1 prices because the Korean "can’t hit an iron right now." Mayo loves Sungjae’s PGA National pedigree and reliable short game but noted the consistency that once made Im a safe top-20 ticket has evaporated. Without signs the approach play is rebounding, Mayo believes Portrush’s elevated greens will expose any iron mis-hits and would rather allocate betting units to in-form strikers like Straka or Morikawa.

Pat Mayo admitted Daniel Hillier’s stat sheet looks ugly right now but still views the Kiwi as a buy-low dice-roll at Portrush. Hillier finished T-20 in last year’s Open, was runner-up to Tyrrell Hatton at the Dubai Desert Classic in a field that included Rory McIlroy, and holds top-20s at both Wentworth and the Alfred Dunhill Links. Mayo likes that Hillier grew up on firm, windy tracks in Australia and New Zealand and occasionally flashes elite ball-striking—‘when it’s on he hits it to two feet all day.’ While the putter and short game remain volatile, Mayo argues slower Open greens and tightly-mown run-offs can equalize weaknesses. At 250-1 with eight-place each-ways, he is willing to overlook recent missed cuts and take Hillier for small outright and top-20 tickets, hoping the ceiling version shows up.

Pat Mayo advised bettors to monitor Adam Scott this week at the Scottish Open and pounce only if the Australian disappoints and his Open number drifts from the current 80-to-1 toward 125-to-1. Mayo noted Scott’s elite record at PGA National—one of the strongest statistical comps to Royal Portrush because both courses demand high-flight approaches into elevated greens in coastal wind—and reminded listeners Scott vaulted from nowhere to a runner-up in Scotland last year. Mayo’s preferred scenario: Scott logs a middling finish (10th–20th) that historically serves as ideal Open prep, the market overreacts, and sharper bettors then grab the inflated outright or each-way price on a player whose aerial iron flight and touch around tight run-offs still suit Portrush perfectly.

Pat Mayo already holds a Sepp Straka ticket at 75-1 for Portrush, citing the Austrian’s elite strokes-gained profile at PGA National—Straka actually won the Honda in 2022 and sits top-5 in total strokes gained there over his last 12 measured rounds. Mayo reiterated his thesis that success at tight, wind-exposed Florida venues is the single best indicator for Portrush, given the shared requirement to flight irons into elevated greens and scramble off tight lies when the breeze knocks approaches offline. Straka’s steady fairway-finding and recent uptick with long irons make him, in Mayo’s words, “up there” in his model despite longer odds than comparable skill-set players like Fleetwood or Lowry. Bettors looking for value in the mid-tier should consider copying Mayo’s outright or each-way exposure before numbers shorten.

Pat Mayo revealed he grabbed Ryan Fox at 90-1 with five places paid, calling the New Zealander a live top-five play for the Open. Fox showed he can handle PGA National’s cross-winds and elevated green complexes earlier this year, a box Mayo considers essential after poring over the 2019 Portrush leaderboard. Fox’s heavy-ball launch and underrated short-game touch fit Mayo’s model that prioritizes Florida-style wind management and approach play over driving distance. With betting markets sleeping on Fox—still hanging 90-1 at CoolBet while similar profile players Straka (75-1) and Henley (60-1) got clipped—Mayo thinks the Kiwi offers the best risk-reward mix among long shots. He advised taking the each-way or straight top-five prop to capitalize on Fox’s high ceiling while muting the volatility that comes with his occasional erratic tee ball.

Pat Mayo talked himself into adding Russell Henley to his outright card at 60-1 for the 2025 Open at Royal Portrush. Mayo stressed that Portrush rewards players who keep the ball in play and lean on precise irons rather than raw power, exactly Henley’s calling card. Henley ranks among the field’s best in total strokes gained at PGA National—“kind of Mr. PGA National,” as Mayo put it—highlighting the strong historical link he sees between success at that tight, wind-exposed Florida track and past Portrush contenders (Lowry, Fleetwood, Koepka, etc.). Henley’s course résumé backs it up: a Honda win in 2014, four straight top-25s there, plus a victory at another Florida wind test (Arnold Palmer Invitational). Mayo noted Henley’s fairway-finding driver, elite mid-iron play and reliable scrambling give him the damage control necessary to avoid Portrush’s blow-up numbers. At a mid-tier number that “seems pretty good,” Mayo believes Henley has genuine win equity and belongs on outright cards and each-way tickets.

Pat Mayo pointed to Tommy Fleetwood’s repeated close calls at PGA National as a direct green flag for Royal Portrush. Mayo explained that every player who thrived on the 2019 Portrush leaderboard had either won or finished runner-up at PGA National, a course that, like Portrush, forces golfers to fly the ball onto elevated, tightly-mown greens and scramble from tight lies when the wind knocks approaches offline. Fleetwood "just missed out on a playoff there over the years," showing he already owns the exact short-game touch and wind management Mayo expects to decide the 2025 Open. Because Portrush is not a driver-every-hole setup and rewards precise par-4 play, Mayo believes Fleetwood’s control with fairway woods and long irons gives him outright-bet and DFS-core upside, especially if the forecasted gusts and Sunday rain arrive.

Pat Mayo cautioned against backing Justin Thomas at Portrush. Although Thomas owns the high-spin short game suited to the course’s elevated greens, Mayo said his driver has been “so poor” that he cannot be trusted. Portrush rewards long-and-straight tee shots, and missing fairways brings big numbers into play. Until Thomas straightens out the big stick, Mayo is leaving him off his outright card and DFS core for the Open.

Pat Mayo advised fading Viktor Hovland at Royal Portrush despite having a ticket on him in Scotland. Mayo argued the course’s elevated greens and limited bump-and-run opportunities will expose Hovland’s well-documented short-game weakness. In windy conditions players will miss greens and must "get it up and down," something Mayo does not trust Hovland to do consistently. As a result, Mayo sees Hovland as overpriced in outright and DFS markets for the 2025 Open.

Pat Mayo said Shane Lowry should be near the top of outright cards for the 2025 Open at Royal Portrush. With only 35 bunkers, severely undulating fairways and elevated, tightly-mown green surrounds, Mayo expects scrambling to decide the tournament because players will have to fly the ball onto the green rather than bump-and-run. He called Lowry “one of the best around-the-green players in the world,” highlighted Lowry’s repeated success on similarly demanding Florida tracks, and reminded listeners he already won the Claret Jug here in 2019. If the forecasted wind and Sunday rain hit, Mayo believes that short-game advantage will widen, making Lowry a strong outright and top-10 bet.