Pat Mayo acknowledged he is tempted by Patrick Cantlay again this week because the ball-striking remains elite—Cantlay gained 5.6 strokes on approach two weeks ago at the Truist and continues to stripe it off the tee—but the putter is still ice-cold. Mayo said Cantlay "couldn't buy a putt" during that hot iron run and worries that another neutral or negative week on the greens makes an outright win unlikely at single-digit odds. His solution: use Cantlay in One-and-Done, DFS cash builds or top-5/top-10 bets where the tee-to-green floor still prints, but pass on the outright until the flat stick finally cooperates.

Pat Mayo said Viktor Hovland is the first mid-tier number he is actually excited to punch this week, calling 30–33-1 "a very fair price." Mayo pointed out that Hovland has not lost strokes on approach since the season-opening event and believes those iron gains give him the highest ceiling of any golfer outside the elite odds tier. He acknowledged Hovland’s usual short-game issues but noted Muirfield Village’s brutal greenside bunkers and thick rough level the playing field because "a lot of people are going to do it poorly." If Hovland simply runs an average—or slightly hot—putter, Mayo expects him to contend, adding that the Norwegian has already shown he can handle Jack Nicklaus designs with last season’s victory here. His actionable call: grab the outright now before the number drops and keep Hovland in any DFS core builds.

Pat Mayo warned against buying Ludvig Aberg at mid-20s prices, predicting the number will drift toward 30-1 because, as he put it, "he’s just playing like crap." Unlike last season, when Aberg’s dip could at least be tied to a knee issue, Mayo sees no mitigating factor for the Swede’s current slump in ball-striking and scoring. With no underlying metrics to justify the ticket, Mayo advised waiting for tangible signs of life before considering Aberg in outrights or DFS builds.

Pat Mayo pegged Andrew Novak as the best triple-digit dart on the board. Novak won the Zurich team event with Ben Griffin, then ranked second only to Scottie Scheffler in strokes gained tee-to-green at Colonial. Mayo noted that kind of consistent ball-striking is rare among the 90-1 to 125-1 crowd and sees Novak’s current 100-1 price as a mis-match for his recent form. He suggested sprinkling the outright and pairing it with a top-20 for added security.

Pat Mayo revealed he already punched a 66-1 outright with a top-5 each-way on Alex Noren. Mayo liked what he saw at Quail Hollow – crisp long-iron play, elite scrambling, and a putter capable of catching fire – and thinks that exact skill set thrives when the Memorial plays tough. If Jack’s place turns firm and scoring tilts to par-savers, Mayo believes Noren’s all-around grindy profile can threaten the trophy or at minimum cash the each-way portion.

Pat Mayo recommended passing on Shane Lowry’s outright number and instead backing him in top-10 or top-20 markets. Mayo acknowledged Lowry’s game – elite long-irons, tidy short-game – sets up well for Muirfield Village, but reminded listeners that very few bettors have ever cashed an outright on the Irishman. With Lowry priced directly behind the Xander/Cantlay tier, Mayo believes placement props capture the upside without relying on a victory that rarely comes through.

Pat Mayo argued that Daniel Berger is an under-the-radar buy at Muirfield Village despite last week’s missed cut. Mayo noted Berger finally looks "very close" to his pre-surgery form three years removed from back issues, citing steady ball-striking numbers in the early summer swing and a profile tailor-made for Jack’s place—fairway finding, mid-iron precision and an above-average Bentgrass putter. Mayo reminded listeners that Berger owns multiple top-10s on long, second-shot layouts (TPC Southwind, Pebble Beach, Colonial) and called his current mid-range outright price a discount relative to comparable plotters such as Corey Conners and Tommy Fleetwood. He recommended sprinkling Berger in outright markets, top-20 bets and One-and-Done contests this week.

Pat Mayo projected Patrick Cantlay to debut around 20–22 / 1 and said anything in that range is an immediate click. Cantlay owns two Memorial victories and gained strokes tee-to-green in all five of his career starts at Muirfield Village, a resume Mayo believes books will undervalue after Cantlay’s fade at Valhalla. The wider fairways accentuate Cantlay’s elite driving accuracy, and Mayo reminded listeners that Cantlay ranks top-10 in the field in 175-225-yard proximity over the past 24 rounds—his best iron bucket. With Rory McIlroy skipping the event and Ludvig Aberg slumping, Mayo expects public money to gravitate toward Morikawa, Schauffele, and Thomas, potentially letting Cantlay drift to 25-1 by Monday afternoon. Mayo advised locking in outrights or each-way tickets before bettors recall Cantlay’s course history and steam the number back down.

Pat Mayo warned DraftKings players that Scheffler’s projected $300 salary gap over the next-highest golfer will push his ownership into the 40–50 % range in large-field GPPs. Mayo noted the "Scotty and a bunch of low-7K guys" roster construction becomes highly derivative when half the field chooses it, and the bottom-tier options may not generate enough scoring despite the generous Memorial cut line. While conceding Scheffler could still win "by three or four," Mayo argued the sharper tournament move is to build balanced lineups, pair a contrarian 9K stud with two mid-8K iron specialists, and hope Scheffler merely finishes top-5 instead of lapping the field. He suggested single-entry players either lock Scheffler in cash formats or fade entirely rather than hedge at heavy chalk levels.

Pat Mayo flagged Akshay Bhatia as a price-sensitive outright and DFS target at Muirfield Village. Mayo likes that Bhatia ranks 23rd in this week’s field in 200-plus-yard proximity and 20th from 175-200 yards, two long-iron buckets he insists are "non-negotiable" at Jack’s course. Bhatia’s fairway accuracy offsets merely average pop off the tee, and the putter has been a quiet weapon during his recent run—key on Bentgrass surfaces that historically neutralize shaky putting strokes. Mayo acknowledged Bhatia’s par-5 scoring has lagged but argued the lefty’s reliable sand play mitigates Muirfield’s penal bunkers. With Scottie Scheffler expected to swallow win equity and shorten prices at the top of the board, Mayo plans to sprinkle Bhatia if books hang 80-1 or longer and will mix him into GPP lineups under 8 % ownership.

Pat Mayo ranked Corey Conners No. 2 in his 24-round Memorial model behind only Scottie Scheffler and believes the Canadian is undervalued in outright and top-10 markets. Conners has gained off the tee in every career start at Muirfield Village and sits top-10 in proximity from 175-225 yards, the distance bucket Mayo called "non-negotiable" this week. Although Conners remains a three-putt risk, Mayo argued that Memorial’s smaller greens reduce that liability—the course ranks bottom-10 on Tour in three-putt percentage. Conners quietly rallied for a T-20 at Valhalla despite a pedestrian opening 36 holes, suggesting his iron game is percolating. Mayo said Conners’ chipping still needs work but pointed out he gained 4.5 strokes around the green here last year ("probably chipped in twice, but it still counts"). With expected odds in the 45-1 range and DFS ownership suppressed by sexier names, Mayo endorsed Conners for outright, top-20, and cash-game builds.

Pat Mayo cautioned listeners to avoid Russell Henley in outright or DFS builds despite his reputation as an accuracy maven. Henley has lost strokes off the tee in three straight events and just logged his first negative approach week since the 2024 Players, a red flag for a player who lives on iron precision. The putter has cooled after a hot spring, and Mayo noted the fairway-first skill set is being offset by distance-driven par-5 scoring at Muirfield Village. With sportsbooks expected to inflate Henley’s number based on name value and a past Honda win, Mayo prefers cheaper, in-form iron specialists like Corey Conners or Alex Noren. “If he is not striping irons, he offers zero win equity here,” Mayo concluded, labeling Henley a clear fade unless odds drift beyond 80-1.

Pat Mayo pitched Kurt Kitayama as a sub-$6,500 DraftKings dart and first-round-leader stab rather than a full-tournament outright. Kitayama missed the cut in each of his last three Memorial starts, but Mayo highlighted the 3.6 strokes he gained on approach at the PGA Championship as evidence the irons are waking up. Kitayama is a former signature-event winner and tends to pop on optimizer models that lean on approach, par-5 scoring, and sand saves—three stats Mayo is weighting heavily. His bent-grass putting splits are neutral, which Mayo sees as a relative win for a historically streaky putter. With books certain to post triple-digit win odds and his salary buried among weak long-shots, Mayo likes the volatile profile for FRL bets and low-owned GPP exposure where a single spike round can pay off.

Pat Mayo advised grabbing Keegan Bradley tickets as soon as numbers post, calling him a "perfect Memorial bomber-fade pivot." Bradley has gained tee-to-green in seven straight starts and ranks top-5 in the field in approach over the last 24 rounds, per Mayo’s custom model. While the putter remains ice cold (five consecutive events losing strokes), Bradley has actually GAINED on Muirfield’s slick greens four years running and owns four career top-20s here despite no top-10 since 2016. Mayo added that Bradley’s short-game spike—he is gaining nearly a half-stroke per round around the green since the BMW—raises his floor if the flat stick stays neutral. With sportsbooks likely to hang 55-1 or longer and DFS ownership projected under 8%, Mayo labeled Bradley a core GPP piece and a sprinkle for outright, top-10, and FRL markets.

Pat Mayo said Alex Noren is a sneaky buy for Memorial outrights and plus-money placement bets. Mayo pointed to Noren’s flawless bent-grass profile—he has gained strokes putting in all four previous trips to Muirfield Village—and noted that the Swede has gained on approach and around the green in five of his last six starts. Since returning from the glute tear, Noren’s driving accuracy is back to its pre-injury norm, which Mayo believes neutralizes his distance deficit on a layout that "de-emphasizes length and punishes misses." Noren’s Saturday back-nine at Valhalla, where he holed multiple chips and gained nearly three strokes with the flat stick, proved the short-game pop is still there. With the field cut to 72 and distance muted, Mayo expects Noren to flirt with another top-15 and called him a perfect mid-range DFS core play and 66-1 outright sprinkle.

Pat Mayo urged listeners to deploy Justin Thomas at the Memorial, noting his game has thrived in signature events but sputtered in majors. Thomas ranked top-5 tee-to-green at Valhalla yet bled 3.5 strokes with the putter, a familiar pattern that is less punitive on Muirfield Village’s slick Bentgrass greens. He owns a playoff loss here and has logged a win and a runner-up in his last two non-major signature starts. Mayo expects Thomas to be priced outside the Scheffler/Xander tier and come in under 10% DFS ownership, creating leverage for GPPs. He suggested combining an outright ticket with top-10 markets, banking on Thomas’s elite approach play to overcome the volatile putter.

Pat Mayo conceded Shane Lowry’s habit of disappearing on Sundays frustrates gamblers but called him a must-click outright at 45/1 or longer. Lowry’s profile—accurate driver, dependable long irons, and inventive short game—mirrors what Muirfield Village rewards, and he nearly won the Truist under a similar setup. He has gained strokes off the tee in five consecutive starts and posted a T6 at Memorial in 2021. Mayo noted that Rory McIlroy’s absence could artificially inflate Lowry’s number despite a field that still skews toward power players. If the Irishman’s ice-cold putter even breaks even on Bentgrass, Mayo believes the tee-to-green floor puts a top-10 firmly in play and justifies an outright stab.

Pat Mayo recommended locking in Si Woo Kim for top-20 bets and balanced DFS builds. Kim owns two top-10s and four consecutive top-20s despite three of those events being majors or signature fields, a sign of newfound week-to-week stability. His trademark iron play is intact, fairway percentage is rebounding as he dials back distance, and an improved around-the-green game has covered occasional off-days with the flat stick. Mayo highlighted Kim’s willingness to hit 5- and 7-woods on 200-plus-yard par-3s—shots that Muirfield Village demands—and said a typical “Si Woo spike” putting round could vault him onto the Sunday leaderboard. Outright sprinkles are viable, but the safer play is plus-money top-20s and mid-range DFS exposure.

Pat Mayo pegged Matt Fitzpatrick as a classic buy-low outright if sportsbooks open him in the 60-to-65/1 range. Fitzpatrick has now gained on approach three straight starts—his first such run since his 2023 Masters-to-U.S. Open heater that included a win at RBC Heritage and a T10 at this very event. He ranks sixth in strokes gained at Muirfield Village over the past five years, and the course’s wider fairways mute his still-spotty driving accuracy. With the short game humming and irons finally cooperating, Mayo said one average driving week is all that separates Fitz from contention. He likened the profile to Keegan Bradley’s surprise signature-event win and suggested sprinkling top-20s alongside the long-shot outright.

Pat Mayo warned that bettors should pass on Xander Schauffele if books hang him as the No. 2 or No. 3 favorite at sub-10/1. Schauffele’s irons had run off four straight positive weeks before the PGA Championship, and Mayo liked that the driver finally popped at Valhalla while the putter and short game are trending upward. Still, with Rory skipping the event and Ludvig Aberg slumping, Mayo expects Xander to be pushed up the board. He said the proper move is to wait for a drift into the +1800-to-+2000 neighborhood—roughly where Patrick Cantlay opened last year—then fire outrights or top-5 tickets. Anything shorter makes him “unbettable” in a field where Scottie Scheffler will already swallow most win equity.

Pat Mayo warned bettors against chasing Xander Schauffele if books slot him as the second or third favorite in a Rory-less field. Although Schauffele owns a sterling Memorial resume (never worse than 25th since 2018) and his driver has rebounded after a shaky spring, Mayo pointed out that Xander just lost strokes on approach at the PGA Championship—his first negative showing in five events—and remains inconsistent round-to-round, posting Tommy Fleetwood-type three-good-one-bad stat lines. With Scottie Scheffler commanding sub-4/1 odds, Mayo expects Xander to open near +700. He called that number “unbettable,” preferring to anchor DFS lineups only if salary drops or pivot to longer iron savants like Morikawa and Straka for outright tickets.

Pat Mayo tabbed Emiliano Grillo as a value play for top-20 markets and salary-saver DFS builds. Grillo’s precision off the tee (67% fairways) and elite long-iron game (top-10 in 200+ proximity) translate at River Highlands, reflected by finishes of 11th, 9th, and 27th in his last three trips. Mayo likened him to a modern Jason Dufner: racks up greens but hemorrhages strokes on the green. Because putting weighed less than approach among recent winners, Mayo believes Grillo’s cold flat stick is less punitive here. He projected the Argentine to gain 4-6 shots tee-to-green over four rounds—enough to contend for a backdoor top-10 if he merely putts field average. With sportsbooks hanging +300 for a top-20 and DFS pricing below $7,500, Mayo sees a profitable buy-low window.

Pat Mayo called Sepp Straka a sneaky outright and DFS target for Muirfield Village. Straka already owns a signature-event victory this season and ranks top-20 on Tour in both fairway accuracy and 175-200 yard proximity—two traits Mayo identified as non-negotiable. The Austrian’s ability to spike with the putter (career +0.31 SG:Putting) offsets a merely average short game, and his conservative strategy off the tee keeps him out of the gnarly rough that swallows wayward drives at Muirfield Village. Mayo sees Straka’s upside reflected in last year’s T-4 finish despite losing strokes putting on Saturday; with greens that neutralize distance but reward dialed-in long irons, he suggested Straka as a live outright at 45-to-1 or longer and a high-ceiling GPP piece under 10% ownership.

Pat Mayo positioned Xander Schauffele as one of the safest win and top-5 bets at Muirfield Village. He reminded listeners that Schauffele has repeatedly contended on this track—posting four career top-15 finishes—and just captured the PGA Championship at Valhalla, another Nicklaus-designed, long, bent-grass track. Xander ranks top-5 on Tour this season in strokes gained: approach, long-par-4 scoring (450-500 yards), and sand-save percentage, three metrics Mayo identified as "non-negotiable" at Memorial. Schauffele’s above-field average fairway accuracy also lessens his exposure to the penal rough that causes Memorial’s historically low birdie rates from the short grass. Mayo concluded that if Scheffler opens shorter than +400, Xander at anything +800 or longer "is the next click" for outrights and an anchor cash-game DFS play.

Pat Mayo warned that Daniel Berger is shaping up as the default "second man in" on DraftKings builds, creating a potential ownership trap. Fantasy National’s early favorite-percentage data shows the field gravitating to Scheffler-Berger stacks and even Scheffler-Berger-Aaron Rai starts, which forces drafters into shaky $6K punts like Bud Cauley or Ryan Gerard. Mayo prefers fading Berger entirely and pivoting to less popular options such as Brian Harman, Maverick McNealy, or a three-deep 9K core of Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, and Harris English. He argued that Berger’s form is still speculative after the long injury layoff and that a likely 20-plus percent roster rate does not justify the risk when the weekend wind could level the leaderboard. By skipping Berger, players can stay in the low-7K range—where names like Nicolas Echavarria and Henrik Norlander carry real top-20 equity—while gaining massive leverage on chalk constructions built around the former Ryder Cupper.

Pat Mayo urged listeners to hammer Adam Schenk’s 'make the cut' prop at a generous 1.35x multiplier on Underdog. Mayo argued the bet is almost free money given a 135-player field that includes what he called '15 zombies'— aging sponsors invites and Korn Ferry call-ups with near-zero weekend equity. Schenk, by contrast, boasts two runner-up finishes at Colonial and has rediscovered form with a T5 in Texas, a 64 during U.S. Open qualifying, and positive approach numbers his last time out. Colonial historically rewards his tidy driving and streaky putter, helping him cash 10 of his last 12 PGA cuts on par-70 classics. Mayo compared Schenk’s multiplier to Nicolas Echavarria’s 0.8x and called it 'the best pure value on the board,' recommending it as an anchor leg in two- and three-pick cards that still clear 4-to-1 payouts.

Pat Mayo revealed he is burning Nicolas Echavarria in One-and-Done despite having stars like Scottie Scheffler available. Colonial’s winner’s share is worth only one-fourth of next week’s Memorial purse, so Mayo expects Scheffler usage to be under 2 percent and mid-tier names such as Daniel Berger, Harris English, J.T. Poston and Davis Riley to command 15-20 percent of entries. Mayo prefers being one of a handful of managers who could solo the $1.6 million check if Echavarria wins rather than splitting a smaller haul with hundreds. He pointed to Echavarria’s T16 at Valspar, +5 strokes gained on approach over his last two PGA starts, and a documented ability to post nuclear putting weeks—all traits that match Colonial’s profile and explain why Mayo is comfortable taking the Colombian as a 1 percent OAD dart.

Pat Mayo said Lucas Glover is one of his favorite DraftKings pivots in the $8K range. At 8,100 salary and 66-to-1 outright, Glover tops Mayo’s Copperhead-only model—beating Davis Riley, Taylor Moore and Jordan Spieth—because he is gaining steadily off-the-tee and sits top-5 in approach over that sample. Colonial rewards that profile, yet the market stays lukewarm because Glover’s putter is unreliable. Mayo expects most builders to drop to cheaper Bud Cauley or Alex Smalley, leaving Glover sub-10 percent owned. He reminded listeners that every year 8K names flood Sunday leaderboards at Colonial, and a balanced Harmon-Glover core can differentiate Scheffler teams without sacrificing ceiling. Mayo will skip the 66-1 outright but plans heavy DFS exposure and sees Glover as a classic leverage play that could be the key to taking down large-field GPPs if the putter merely cooperates.

Pat Mayo said Robert MacIntyre immediately jumps onto his short list whenever wind becomes a factor, and Colonial’s Saturday forecast has him interested. Both of MacIntyre’s professional victories came on windy, positional par-70s—last year at Hamilton and the Scottish Open—layouts that mirror this week’s setup. Mayo noted that MacIntyre’s left-handed ball flight lets him work Colonial’s doglegs, and his game historically scales up in difficult scoring conditions, ranking top-10 in the field in Strokes Gained in rounds where the scoring average is over par. Mayo recommended sprinkling each-way outrights and keeping MacIntyre in the mid-tier DFS pool as a ceiling play if the wind really howls.

Pat Mayo locked in Nicolas Echavarria at 125-1 with eight each-way places, calling him a perfect storm play if Colonial turns into a wind-whipped grind. Echavarria has gained over five strokes on approach across his last two starts and owns one of the tour’s most extreme spike-putting profiles—he has multiple +7.5 SG:Putting weeks over the past year. Mayo added that the Colombian’s lone PGA win came at Narashino, another tree-lined, par-70 layout that correlates well to Colonial. If the forecasted Saturday gusts arrive, Mayo believes Echavarria can replicate Davis Riley’s shock runaway by pairing solid irons with one of his trademark nuclear putting weeks.

Pat Mayo told listeners to build cards under the assumption that Scottie Scheffler lifts the trophy at Colonial. Mayo rattled off Scheffler’s absurd course résumé—2nd, 3rd, 2nd the last three years with five rounds of 67 or better—and noted the Texan has already won twice in post-major weeks this season. Because Scheffler “does not mind ruining lives” and is teeing it up strictly to win, Mayo advised avoiding the crowded 20-to-50-to-1 outright tier and instead using ‘Without Scheffler’ markets, top-5/10 each-ways, or DFS line-ups that jam Scheffler and differentiate elsewhere. The goal, he said, is to profit even if the World No. 1 does what the numbers strongly suggest he will do: win the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Pat Mayo explained that if he skips Scottie Scheffler altogether he will start lineups with Hideki Matsuyama—who he called the second-best golfer in the field—paired with Robert MacIntyre. Ownership projections show virtually no one clicking Hideki because builders are either jamming Scheffler or dropping straight into the Berger/Rai tier. Mayo likes the leverage: Matsuyama’s elite tee-to-green game ranks top-3 on Tour this season, and he has gained strokes putting in four of his last five starts, a key at Colonial where winners routinely need +6 on the greens. At a sub-5-percent roster rate and a $9K salary that still allows him to cram five low-8K wind specialists (Lucas Glover, Michael Kim, Akshay Bhatia, Harry Hall, Brian Harman), Mayo believes Hideki can be the difference-maker if Scheffler merely finishes top-10 instead of winning.

Pat Mayo highlighted J.T. Poston as a sneaky outright and DFS target after his strong showing last week. Mayo drew a straight line between Colonial and two of Poston’s favorite venues—Harbour Town and Sedgefield—emphasizing that all three courses are short, tree-lined, and demand wedge-heavy approach games. Poston has gained at least four strokes putting in four of his past six starts, and Mayo believes the flat stick is critical at Colonial where winners routinely eclipse +6 SG:Putting. With Poston’s recent ball-striking trending up and a proven track record on comparable layouts, Mayo is comfortable eating moderate ownership in DFS and taking a flyer at 45-to-1 or better in the outright market.

Pat Mayo locked in Akshay Bhatia at 80-to-1, calling the number a gift compared to names sitting in the 20-to-40 range. Mayo argued Colonial’s forecasted gusts and tight fairways line up perfectly with Bhatia’s skill set: he is one of the field’s most accurate drivers, thrives in windy setups, and owns two PGA Tour wins in the past twelve months, both coming when his approach play spiked. Although recent form is uneven, Bhatia continues to gain fairways and posts +3 strokes on approach roughly every third start. Mayo emphasized that if Bhatia “sun-runs” with the putter he is one of the few players capable of actually beating Scottie Scheffler, yet the market implies Tommy Fleetwood has four-times better win equity—an assessment Mayo flatly rejected. He advised each-way outrights and using Bhatia as a core DFS pivot in Scheffler-anchored builds.