Pat Mayo floated a straight-forecast angle: instead of the ‘without Scheffler’ market, bet Scheffler 1st and Cameron Young 2nd at 45-1. He reasoned that the exact-finish ticket offers more than double the non-Scheffler odds (≈20-1) while capturing the same thesis that Scheffler dominates and Young is best of the rest. Mayo admits you have fewer outs, but likes the payout if you’re already building around that leaderboard shape.

Pat Mayo advised taking Brian Harman at +105 in the Bet-365 ‘without ties’ Round-1 matchup versus Keegan Bradley at East Lake. Mayo pointed out that Harman has carded an under-par score in every competitive round since winning The Open, a six-week stretch that shows both form and floor. Conversely, Bradley finished dead last at the BMW, had to play alone on Sunday, and now arrives with the mental weight of debating whether a Ryder Cup captain should even tee it up. Mayo added that Bradley owns a poor track record at East Lake, so the combination of shaky course history, recent ball-striking dip, and off-course distractions makes him a prime fade. Harman’s steady fairways-and-greens profile and hot putter give him a clear path to win the opening-round head-to-head.

Pat Mayo advised fading every Seattle pass catcher, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba, because he expects the Seahawks offense to ‘suck’ through the air while leaning on the run. Mayo’s skepticism is echoed by Ian Hartitz, who noted Ryan Grubb’s two-week play-action explosion in 2024 came against the league’s two worst scoring defenses and the new scheme now relies on OC Kubiak’s outside-zone ground attack. Hartitz added that Geno Smith is a downgrade from last year’s form, the offensive line remains a pass-protection liability, and Cooper Kupp’s arrival overlaps JSN’s interior route tree, tightening space underneath. With defenses unlikely to respect Seattle’s perimeter speed, he foresees congested middle zones and limited target quality. Both analysts are comfortable drafting Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet but want zero exposure to JSN, Kupp or any Seattle receiver in redraft.

Pat Mayo said fantasy managers should spend a 14th-round pick on Will Shipley instead of wasting that slot on a sixth wideout or a defense. Shipley is going almost completely undrafted, yet Mayo argued he is one of the few backs who would become the primary ball-carrier if Saquon Barkley were hurt. Even though Jake Ciely noted A.J. Dillon would siphon some touches, both agreed Shipley would handle the lead role in what projects to be a high-scoring Eagles offense, giving him instant RB2—possibly RB1—value for essentially free draft capital.

Pat Mayo warned bettors against laying the likely +175 outright price on Scottie Scheffler at East Lake. Despite Scheffler leading virtually every ball-striking metric, Mayo pointed out that back-to-back tournaments—Caves Valley and the BMW—have ended without a win, meaning anyone chasing him at sub-2/1 the last two weeks is already down units. Mayo’s take: the combination of tiny payout and golf’s inherent variance makes Scheffler unplayable in the outright market. He recommended diverting bankroll toward high-payout niches like first-round top-10 bets (e.g., on J.J. Spaun) or spreading exposure across mid-tier outrights instead of tying up significant capital in Scheffler.

Pat Mayo placed J.J. Spaun in his early betting/DFS rotation for East Lake, noting Spaun’s skill set mirrors what worked at both St. Jude and Southwind. Over courses with similar fairway-penalty setups, Spaun ranked 7th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, pairing above-average accuracy with just enough length. Mayo referenced Spaun’s season résumé— victory at the U.S. Open qualifier, playoff loss at the St. Jude, and sustained tee-to-green excellence— as proof he can contend when driver is a primary weapon. He advised looking for first-round leader or top-10 tickets on Spaun rather than outright bombs, since Spaun’s putting variance makes him more volatile across four rounds.

Pat Mayo flagged Ben Griffin as a sneaky value should he crack the 30-man finale, calling East Lake “a very good Ben Griffin course.” Griffin sits T16 at the BMW and has strung together consecutive top-20 finishes, riding an improved driver that blends above-average distance with fairway-finding consistency— traits Mayo is weighting most heavily this week. While Griffin would enter as a long-shot in outright markets, Mayo suggested exploiting softer pricing in DFS or taking stabs at placement bets (top-10/20) given his current momentum and underrated all-around game.

Pat Mayo identified Collin Morikawa as an under-the-radar play for East Lake after noticing a quiet surge in his core strengths. At the BMW he ranked 3rd in Approach and 21st Off-the-Tee, indicators that his trademark tee-to-green dominance is resurfacing, while poor putting (bottom-10 in both Putting and Around-the-Green) is masking the resurgence in public perception. Mayo reminded listeners that Morikawa finished strongly at East Lake last year and currently sits 2nd in Fairway Accuracy and 37th in Driving Distance over the past three months— the exact profile Mayo is targeting for this track. With inevitable debate about Ryder Cup roster spots circling, Mayo expects a motivated Morikawa and is “all in” if sportsbooks discount him due to recent short-game woes. DFS gamers looking for elite ball-striking leverage and bettors seeking a mid-range outright or top-5 number should circle Morikawa early.

Pat Mayo said Rickie Fowler becomes a legitimate outright betting target at East Lake provided he posts a solid Sunday at the BMW to secure a tee-time. Mayo highlighted Fowler’s statistical profile over the past three months: 1st in Good-Drive Percentage, 4th in Total Driving, 4th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 7th in Fairway Accuracy and still 27th in Driving Distance among the BMW field. Mayo noted East Lake historically rewards players who keep it in the short grass while still being long enough to attack the par-5s, and Fowler’s balanced distance/accuracy combo places him squarely in that sweet spot. If Fowler reaches the 30-man finale, Mayo expects sportsbooks to hang an appealing number relative to Scheffler/Rory, making Fowler a sharp outright dart and an attractive DFS tournament play where ownership should stay tame due to his shaky FedExCup standing.

Pat Mayo floated Justin Rose as a live long-shot to “get the job done at Eastlake” and steal the FedEx Cup. Rose ranks near the top of the recent-form tab on Rabbithole, averaging the third-most strokes gained per round over the last three months. He just grabbed a win during the playoff swing and continues to gain across all four SG categories. Mayo argued that with starting strokes removed this year, Rose’s all-around consistency and playoff momentum give him realistic paths to the top of the leaderboard at juicy outright odds.

Pat Mayo backed Tommy Fleetwood for DFS and placement bets, noting Fleetwood has gained strokes tee-to-green in all but two starts over the last 12 months—the only outliers being the U.S. Open and last year’s Tour Championship. Eastlake historically suits him (T6, T11, T16, 20th) and his putter has been "excellent" lately. Mayo’s model, weighted for driver-heavy setups, again ranked Fleetwood inside the top ten, making him a core play despite minimal outright win equity.

Pat Mayo labeled J.J. Spaun a "good shout" for the Tour Championship after Spaun popped top-10 in his driver-heavy Eastlake model. Spaun gained over five strokes off the tee at Southwind and finished runner-up there, continuing a month-long run of positive ball-striking. Mayo believes Spaun’s accuracy plus sneaky length mitigate Eastlake’s rough penalties and give him top-15 upside at a depressed salary and triple-digit outright odds.

Pat Mayo said Ludvig Aberg rates as one of the best outright and DraftKings punts if he sneaks into Eastlake. Mayo’s custom Rabbithole model filtered the last seven months of strokes-gained off-the-tee on driver-heavy tracks with ‘miss-fairway high-to-average’ penalties, the exact setup at Eastlake. Aberg graded second overall behind only Scottie Scheffler and is coming off a Sunday 6-under round at Southwind that vaulted him back into the FedEx Cup mix. His length advantage, recent approach spike, and projected single-digit ownership make him a high-leverage target for both betting cards and DFS player pools.

Pat Mayo said he plans to “dump on” Tommy Fleetwood this week, arguing that the Englishman’s fairway-finding driver, top-5 ranking on 450-plus-yard par-4 scoring, and strong showing at Southwind fit Eastlake perfectly. Mayo added a narrative angle—Fleetwood’s first PGA Tour win coming in a 30-man event no one is watching—which could keep his betting odds longer than those of marquee names. Mayo recommended taking Fleetwood outright and in DFS builds, expecting viewers to label it an “illegitimate” victory while still cashing tickets.

Pat Mayo highlighted that seven of Eastlake’s par-4s stretch beyond 450 yards and, over the last 24 measured rounds, Sam Burns ranks first in the entire 30-man field for strokes gained on par-4s longer than 450. Mayo noted that these holes accounted for nearly half of Eastlake’s scoring last year and believes Burns’ edge on that specific distance, plus his comfort on fast Bermuda greens, makes him a strong outright and top-10 bet as well as a core DFS play.

Pat Mayo said fantasy managers should treat Kyle Pitts strictly as a trade chip rather than a set-and-forget starter. Pitts is being drafted in the 11th–12th round as the TE16, an ADP that Mayo considers a throw-away price. He highlighted last year’s three-game sample with Michael Penix in which Pitts drew only 12 targets while Drake London saw 39, reinforcing concerns about consistent volume. Mayo believes the market still anchors to Pitts’ 1,000-yard debut season, so even a modest 60-yard, 1-TD Week-1 line would ignite hype and let managers flip him for fifth-round value. His marching orders: roster Pitts as a late dart, actively shop him after any early spike, and cut bait if he is not producing by Week 3.

Pat Mayo warned drafters not to pay Joe Burrow’s current market cost. Mayo’s Top-150 ranks slot Burrow at 58th overall—late fifth or early sixth round—but ESPN and Sleeper ADP push him into the 40s, a 30-plus-pick premium over where Mayo is comfortable. He prefers to secure one of the four dual-threat "alien" QBs (Hurts, Allen, Jackson, Daniels) or wait until rounds 11-14 and double-tap upside passers such as Drake Maye, Jordan Love or Justin Fields. Mayo noted that pocket-passer archetypes like Burrow historically underperform their draft cost unless scoring is dramatically weighted toward passing TDs, making the opportunity cost of a fourth-round Burrow pick far too steep compared to still-available RB and WR starters.

Pat Mayo pushed back on the enthusiasm for Kenneth Walker after reporter Michael-Shawn Duggar said the Seahawks plan to use him as a bell-cow. Mayo’s concern is that Walker still isn’t practicing consistently—"he can’t be a bell cow if he doesn’t get on the damn field"—and soft-tissue issues historically linger for him. Until Walker strings together healthy weeks in August, Mayo is lowering his exposure and treating him as a volatile RB2 rather than counting on the 20-touch workload Duggar’s report implies.

Pat Mayo said he pushed Bucky Irving down to RB21 and would draft him at the 2/3 turn only if he falls. Mayo expects, at best, a 65-35 backfield split in Irving’s favor while Rashad White works back from a day-to-day injury and Sean Tucker siphons a few touches. He thinks Irving’s 2024 efficiency will naturally dip once the touch count rises and prefers proven workhorses like Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor in the same tier. Mayo is not convinced Irving will command the heavy volume those veterans enjoy and warns that paying a top-15 price assumes an every-down workload that is far from guaranteed.

Pat Mayo recommended scooping DJ Giddens in the final round as the clear backup to Jonathan Taylor. Mayo noted beat-writer and coaching-staff comments that anointed Giddens the No. 2 back and drew a David Montgomery comparison, praising his three-down skill set. If Taylor misses time, Mayo projects an immediate RB18 floor with legitimate RB1 upside in Shane Steichen’s run-centric offense. Given Giddens’ near-zero draft cost, Mayo prefers him to roster-clogging WR5s, extra quarterbacks, or kickers and defenses, framing the pick as a cheap lottery ticket that could become a weekly starter overnight.

Pat Mayo said he raised Josh Jacobs in his Top-150 because every Packers backup runner keeps landing on the injury report, calling their issues "re-occurring" and noting that none of them are ever on the field. With no healthy competition, Mayo expects Green Bay to funnel the backfield work through Jacobs, projecting an 80-plus percent snap share and uninterrupted goal-line usage. He urged fantasy managers to draft Jacobs confidently as a volume-driven RB1 rather than over-analyzing minor efficiency concerns.

Pat Mayo announced he moved Josh Jacobs up his Top-150 because "the backups just keep getting hurt." With AJ Dillon still nursing a quad and rookie Elijah Collins recently undergoing meniscus surgery, Mayo believes Green Bay will have little choice but to lean heavily on Jacobs’ every-down profile. Jacobs already handled 77% of Raider carries and 70% of long-down-and-distance snaps in 2024; Mayo projects a similar snap share in Matt LaFleur’s run-heavy red-zone scheme, noting that Green Bay finished 7th in red-zone rush rate last year. The volume safety, plus offensive line continuity, makes Jacobs a secure high-end RB2 who can sneak into the top-8 at the position if the touchdown variance tilts his way.

Pat Mayo flat-out refuses to draft Derrick Henry at his current ADP near pick 15. Mayo said there is "no way on earth" drafters will actually see Henry fall that far once August ramps up, and he is unwilling to chase the price on a back who is now well past the historical production cliff for high-volume rushers. Rather than invest a mid-second-round pick and absorb the age-related downside, Mayo plans to pivot to elite wide receivers or younger running backs in that range, effectively crossing Henry off his personal board.

Pat Mayo slotted Malik Nabers inside his top eight wide receivers, betting on the classic sophomore explosion. Mayo noted that Nabers "established himself as such a stud" as a rookie and pointed to the league-wide trend of year-two receivers leaping into elite production tiers. After watching camp clips of Russell Wilson and Jackson Dart simply taking five-step drops and lofting jump-balls to Nabers, Mayo expects the Giants to funnel down-field targets to their young playmaker. The combination of an expanded route tree, contested-catch ability, and big-play upside led Mayo to place Nabers ahead of veterans like CeeDee Lamb in his initial rankings.

Pat Mayo said he nearly moved Christian McCaffrey to his 1.01 slot and insisted the veteran should never fall past pick nine. Mayo argued that with the 49ers offense ravaged by injuries, the team may have to “give McCaffrey the ball 800 times a game,” making volume king once again. He dismissed the idea that McCaffrey is uniquely injury-prone, noting no running back carries less risk than another at the top of drafts, while McCaffrey owns the highest PPR points-per-game mark in NFL history. For managers chasing pure league-winning ceiling, Mayo is comfortable selecting McCaffrey as early as the first overall pick.

Pat Mayo pushed back, saying he refuses to draft running backs who do not catch passes. Mayo emphasized that Henry would need a near-record touchdown total—"around thirty scores"—to sniff the overall RB1 finish because he offers virtually no reception floor in half-point PPR. He warned that high-volume, between-the-tackles backs often hit an abrupt cliff, so Henry’s downside is much steeper than pass-catching backs like De'Von Achane or Jenty. Mayo capped Henry’s realistic upside at RB5 and is willingly passing on him in favor of backs who maintain weekly floors through receiving work.

Pat Mayo suggested anchoring DFS builds with Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, and Patrick Cantlay. He believes almost no one will start lineups that way because the field is gravitating to Scheffler-centric constructions, leaving the Thomas/Morikawa/Cantlay trio both high-ceiling and contrarian. In a no-cut playoff event they bring multiple-win upside, solid recent form, and ownership leverage, allowing drafters to differentiate before dropping into the mid-7K value range.

Pat Mayo likes Jake Knapp’s overall game but believes DraftKings overshot by at least $1,000 by placing him at $7,500. Mayo noted that this week’s salaries lean heavily on FedEx Cup standings and betting odds, creating soft spots. With comparably skilled or better tee-to-green options available in the mid-6K range, he recommended fading Knapp and reallocating that cap to upgrade elsewhere or squeeze in another true top-tier play.

Pat Mayo recommended steering clear of Ryan Fox, calling him "one of the streakiest players in the world" and pointing out that the Kiwi is in a pronounced slump: missed cut, missed cut, 65th in his last three starts. Mayo reviewed Fox’s long-term results and noted the pattern of brief hot runs followed by prolonged downturns. With the form arrow clearly pointing down, Mayo sees more downside than upside in a limited, elite field and is comfortable being underweight.

Pat Mayo pitched Aldrich Potgieter as a perfect leverage play in stars-and-scrubs builds. Mayo noted that "no one's getting cut, so it’s all about birdies" and Potgieter’s distance gives him real eagle chances on TPC Southwind’s two reachable par-5s, which see eagle rates between roughly 2 % and 4 %. Because virtually no one is rostering Potgieter, Mayo believes the youngster can finish outside the top 15 in real life yet still post a top-six DraftKings score, making him an ideal tournament dart alongside another cheap punt like Bridgman.

Pat Mayo said he is fading Hideki Matsuyama on DraftKings because the former champion "can't drive the ball" right now. Mayo pointed out that Matsuyama has been hemorrhaging strokes off-the-tee for roughly three months, which forces him to play defensively and kills his ability to contend at TPC Southwind. In Mayo's view the poor driving neutralizes Hideki’s traditional upside and makes him a salary trap in a week where there are plenty of other reliable ball-strikers to pay for.

Pat Mayo likes Ludvig Aberg as a value-priced outright at the FedEx St. Jude. He noted that DraftKings has Aberg priced below Russell Henley by $700 despite Aberg owning comparable win equity, making him an attractive start in two-stud builds alongside Viktor Hovland. Mayo believes the mis-pricing plus lower exposure compared to the Scottie/Xander chalk gives Aberg both leverage and strong ROI in DFS and betting cards.

Pat Mayo advised steering clear of Hideki Matsuyama despite the tempting course history that includes last year’s win. Mayo said Matsuyama’s driver has been "so bad over the past three months" that it’s capping his ability to get into contention. Even though the upside is still there, the recent tee-ball collapse makes him a risky spend for DFS and an avoid in outright markets this week.

Pat Mayo defended Corey Conners at $8,400 as a sharp contrarian play. Mayo pointed out that Conners quietly finished 6th here two years ago despite a surprisingly poor iron week, an outlier for a golfer he called "one of the best iron players on earth." With the 8 K range expected to flatten out behind ownership magnets like Griffin, Gotterup and Harris English, Mayo expects Conners to come in under the radar. He views that low roster percentage, combined with Conners’ elite ball-striking baseline, as the perfect single-entry pivot for gamers who need differentiation without sacrificing ceiling.

Pat Mayo took the ‘worse than 20th place’ side on Jason Day’s Underdog finishing-position prop. Mayo noted Day has lost strokes tee-to-green in four of his last five tournaments and hasn’t posted a top-30 since mid-June. Even the niche top Oceania market couldn’t entice him, leading Mayo to fade Day on a layout that demands precise ball-striking—a skill the Aussie simply hasn’t shown in recent weeks.

Pat Mayo added Sam Burns over/under 20.5 finishing position on Underdog, taking the ‘better than 20th’ side. Burns has three consecutive top-15s at TPC Southwind and is gaining 1.5 strokes per round with the putter on Bermuda this season. Mayo likes pairing Burns’ course comfort with his hot flat stick to anchor the three-leg prize-pick slip.

Pat Mayo locked in Xander Schauffele to finish inside the top-10 on Underdog at a 1.16 multiplier. Mayo pointed out that Schauffele has cashed a top-10 in two of his last three playoff starts at Southwind and owns a 66 % top-10 rate in no-cut events since 2022. Mayo trusts Xander’s accuracy-plus-wedge combo to provide the high floor needed for the prop card.

Pat Mayo said Matt Fitzpatrick should be the go-to one-and-done selection for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Mayo highlighted Fitzpatrick’s current heater—a T-2 at the Scottish, T-17 at The Open, and T-2 last week at the Wyndham—and noted that 60 % of pools still have him unused. With just two picks left in most contests, Mayo believes grabbing Fitzpatrick’s live win equity now is the surest path to the $3.6 M winner’s purse while many opponents burn Xander Schauffele or Justin Thomas for game-theory reasons.

Pat Mayo added Stafford’s season-long passing yards under (3,799.5 on Underdog) to his betting card. The logic mirrors his Rams win-total fade: any back flare-up could cost Stafford three or more games, and even if he guts it out the efficiency drop would push him well below the posted number. Mayo framed the wager as needing only "three to four" missed starts or a prolonged stretch of compromised play for the ticket to cash, making it a strong correlation piece with his Rams-under exposure.

Pat Mayo bet the Rams under 9.5 wins at +150 after convincing Coolbet to boost the price. Mayo is “legitimately worried” about Matthew Stafford’s chronic back issues; one awkward hit could sideline him for weeks, swinging Los Angeles from fringe contender to lottery team. He noted the enormous range of outcomes on the roster and said the backup plan of Jimmy Garoppolo would not keep the offense afloat long-term. Mayo pegs the true odds closer to a 55-45 split even if Stafford stays relatively healthy, so a plus-money under gives what he considers significant value.

Mayo acknowledged Knapp’s driver gives him upside on long setups but warned his $7,500 salary is a trap. Knapp has missed three of his last four cuts in the Southeast and loses 0.45 strokes on approach on Bermuda tracks. Mayo said he would have taken a flier if Knapp were in the $6K range, but at current pricing he is fading him entirely in DFS GPPs.

Mayo grouped English with Henley as a short-hitter whose tidy driving (66% fairways) and streaky Bermuda putting can win at South-wind, noting English already owns a win here (2013). Over the past 12 rounds he ranks 6th in SG-Putting and is gaining half a stroke on approaches from 200+. Mayo flagged him as a single-entry DFS pivot off the chalkier mid-range and likes 55-1 outright numbers given his course history.

Mayo pointed to Henley’s PGA-National style skill set—elite accuracy and a 175-225-yard proximity rank inside the top 10—as tailor-made for TPC South-wind, another water-guarded track where double bogeys lurk. Henley gains 0.64 strokes per round with his irons over the last three months and owns three straight top-20s on courses that reward staying dry. Mayo likes him as a balanced-build anchor in DFS cash games and as a top-20 wager at plus money.

Pat Mayo said Aberg sets up perfectly for TPC South-wind because the fairways are among the narrowest on Tour and missing them usually means hacking out of four-inch Bermudagrass. Mayo argued Aberg’s combination of top-tier distance and a proven +1.3 SG-Approach baseline allows him to score even when he is in the rough, a profile that has translated at other big-driver venues like Torrey Pines. Mayo expects the Swede to pick up strokes on approach from 175-225 yards and capitalize on four reachable par-5s, making him a core DraftKings play and an outright consideration.

Pat Mayo endorsed Ludvig Aberg as an outright and core DFS piece, arguing that Southwind’s layout amplifies Aberg’s elite driver. Tournament data shows players hit driver 81 percent of the time here last year versus a 68 percent Tour average, making distance plus accuracy paramount. Mayo called Aberg “probably the longest, straightest player out there most weeks,” and expects him to gain strokes by simply avoiding the water and giving himself birdie looks. With scrambling statistically 11-39 percent easier than Tour norms, Mayo is willing to overlook Aberg’s spotty around-the-green numbers, banking on his tee-to-green advantage and birdie rate to chase the –15 to –17 winning score historically needed at this par-70. Aberg will headline Mayo’s Scheffler-less GPP builds and is on his outright card at 28-1.

Pat Mayo spotlighted Robert “Bobby Mac” MacIntyre as his favorite overlooked mid-tier play. Despite a “piss-poor” showing at the Wyndham, MacIntyre has two worldwide wins on par-70 tracks within the past year and finished T7 at Southwind in 2024. Mayo likes that MacIntyre brings a complete tee-to-green profile—accurate enough off the tee and solid on approach—plus a competent short game to navigate the course’s tiny greens. Early ownership projections show gamers flocking to JJ Spaun and Chris Kirk in the same salary band, leaving MacIntyre sub-10 percent. Mayo plans to leverage that low ownership in DFS and is sprinkling a top-10 bet at juicy odds as well.