Pat Sharyon highlighted J.K. Dobbins as Thursday’s best TD prop, citing the Dimers algorithm that assigns him a 47.0% anytime-touchdown probability and a slate-leading 12.2% chance to score first. The model projects 73 rushing yards for Dobbins and expects Denver to pound the rock in thin air, where backs typically see an elevated red-zone carry share. With the Broncos entering as 9.5-point favorites and projected to control tempo, Sharyon recommended any anytime-TD price shorter than +115, calling it a value play given Dobbins’ nearly coin-flip scoring odds.

Pat Sharyon noted that Dimers gives Las Vegas a 55% chance to cover the +9.5 spread, driven by a projected 25-17 score line. He expects Denver to lean on J.K. Dobbins and a ball-control script, which historically limits possessions at Mile High and makes it difficult for big favorites to create separation. With the Raiders forecast for 214 passing yards from Geno Smith and a balanced attack featuring Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, Sharyon believes grabbing the points is a sound alternative for bettors who prefer the cushion of nearly two scores instead of chasing the juicier moneyline.

Pat Sharyon said the Dimers model’s 10,000-simulation run produced a 22% win probability for Las Vegas, creating a 2.4% edge versus the +410 moneyline’s 19.6% implied odds. Although the model still favors Denver to win 25-17, Sharyon argued bettors are being over-paid for the upset scenario. He pointed to Denver’s run-heavy identity and a projected grind-it-out game at altitude, noting that Geno Smith, Brock Bowers, and Ashton Jeanty give the Raiders just enough explosive potential to spring a surprise. Because a narrow Broncos victory or outright Raiders shocker both keep the wager live deep into the fourth quarter, Sharyon labeled the moneyline his top play for Thursday Night Football.