Paul Shaughnessy supports betting Nora Cornolle against Hailey Cowan, emphasizing Cornolle's stronger striking ability, effective clinch striking, and higher fight engagement as key factors. Shaughnessy contrasts Cornolle's aggressiveness and physicality favorably to Cowan's low-output wrestling-heavy approach, labeling Cowan as a fighter who explicitly tries to avoid active exchanges. Shaughnessy illustrates his confidence by highlighting Cowan's struggles in UFC fights to maintain takedowns and control opponents effectively, citing her recent fight against Jamie-Lyn Horth where she missed weight and still lacked sustained grappling dominance. Despite concerns about Cornolle briefly being taken down by previous opponents, Paul highlights her ability to reverse positions consistently and land damaging strikes. Given Cowan's repeated issues with weight cuts, pullouts, and her minimal UFC presence, Shaughnessy firmly favors Cornolle's higher output and violent, engaged fighting style, making her a clear betting favorite at fair odds (-175).

Paul Shaughnessy considers betting Tresean Gore as an appealing underdog at significant plus-money odds against Marco Tulio, primarily due to inherent skepticism regarding Tulio's overall MMA skill set. Paul identifies Tulio as powerful and violent, yet limited and potentially vulnerable. Gore notably demonstrated glimpses of skill, drawing Paul's interest during Gore's earlier fights on the Ultimate Fighter and his recent submission over previously unbeaten Antonio Tricoli. While Gore lacks high-volume output and suffers from prior injuries, Paul views the large underdog odds (+300 range) appealing due to questioned talent and overall capabilities of Tulio. Paul points out Gore's injury-hampered bouts might have negatively skewed market perceptions about his true abilities. Despite recognizing risks relating to Gore's durability and experience, Paul finds the financial upside in betting Gore as a big underdog worth a modest investment, believing Tulio to be vulnerable enough to justify this play.

Paul Shaughnessy sees solid value in betting Sumudaerji versus Mitch Raposo due to a clear striking and reach advantage. Despite conceding vulnerabilities against high-level wrestlers like Tim Elliott and Matt Schnell previously, Paul did not find Mitch Raposo's wrestling ability elite enough to fully exploit these weaknesses on tape. Paul specifically cites a decisive eight-inch reach advantage (72” vs. 64”) and substantial height difference (5’8” vs. much shorter Raposo) as key factors favoring Sumudaerji. Additionally, Sumudaerji’s current odds (-170) appear unusually favorable due to recent losses, creating a potential buy-low opportunity. Given the absence of high-grade wrestling threats presented uniquely by Raposo, Paul anticipates Sumudaerji comfortably outstriking Raposo from range, making him an appealing moderate favorite bet.

Paul Shaughnessy strongly favors Michal Oleksiejczuk against Sedriques Dumas, highlighting a significantly upgraded training environment with the Fighting Nerds gym in Brazil. Paul notes Michal's consistent weakness historically has been grappling defense and cardio, factors directly addressed through rigorous training alongside elite grapplers like Caio Borralho for six weeks leading up to this bout. He also emphasized the favorable stylistic matchup: Dumas offers no elite grappling threat aside from a single guillotine finish and maintains low output (only two significant strikes landed per minute). Michal boasts offensive wrestling skills, powerful striking demonstrated via victories over Khalil Rountree and Chidi Njokuani, and has superior competition experience versus fighters taller and longer than Dumas. Paul views enhancements in cardio, strategic preparation, and overall conditioning from training closely with Fighting Nerds as pivotal improvements to decisively tip this fight toward Michal, making him a highly attractive betting option at his current odds.

Paul Shaughnessy recommends considering a live bet on Darren Elkins if Julian Erosa engages in early guillotine choke attempts. Paul emphasizes Elkins' exceptional choke defense, noting Elkins intentionally gives his neck to opponents as bait to secure dominant top positions, referenced clearly in fights against Darrick Minner and Daniel Pineda. Erosa's previous success with guillotine submissions might tempt him into this exact trap, potentially resulting in Elkins gaining top position and control. Given Elkins' durability, superior cardio, and grind-heavy style if he attains positional dominance, Paul warns that betting Erosa could quickly become worrisome, and strategically suggests bettors watch early exchanges closely before potentially betting Elkins live if Erosa predictably tries these chokes.

Paul Shaughnessy strongly cautions against Julian Erosa attempting his favored guillotine choke against Darren Elkins due to Elkins' exceptional submission defense and scrambling abilities. Shaughnessy notes that Elkins has never been submitted by choke despite regularly placing himself in seemingly dangerous submission positions as bait to reverse grappling exchanges effectively. Shaughnessy firmly advises against Erosa attempting submissions rather than focusing on striking output and positional dominance. He stresses Elkins thrives on opponents chasing submissions against him—citing hard-fought comeback victories against grapplers like Darrick Minner and Luiz Eduardo Garagorri who fell into his submission-counters trap. Given the stylistic matchup, he sees significant danger and betting risk in Erosa's submission-oriented tendencies, making it advisable to avoid relying on Erosa’s typical submission game plan versus Elkins at inflated odds.

Paul Shaughnessy confidently supports Chase Hooper against Jim Miller, underscoring Hooper's significant physical advantages, vastly improved striking, grappling ability, and relentless pace as critical factors. Shaughnessy notes that Hooper has gained noticeable comfort since moving to 155 lbs, highlighted by recent dominant wins against experienced veterans like Clay Guida and Viacheslav Borshchev. Paul emphasizes Miller's historical struggles in high-paced, high-scrambling situations, pointing to Miller's losses due to lower activity and inability to match younger opponents' output. While he finds the moneyline at -900 unappealing, Shaughnessy strongly expects Hooper to overwhelm Miller through continuous scrambles, volume striking, and potentially dominant grappling transitions, recommending Hooper in parlays or prop bets instead.

Paul Shaughnessy sees value in betting the underdog Dan Ige against Sean Woodson, notably highlighting a strong possibility of a knockout finish. Shaughnessy emphasizes Woodson's questionable chin and vulnerability highlighted by fights such as with Luis Saldana, who repeatedly knocked him down. Compared to Woodson's previous competition, Ige has significantly superior punching power, demonstrated through first-round knockouts of Andre Fili, Gavin Tucker, and knockdowns against resilient fighters like Lerone Murphy and Nate Landwehr. He points out Ige's fast hands, crafty striking, and ability to unpredictably catch opponents, qualities that could decisively threaten the tall and defensively questionable Woodson. Additionally, Woodson's inability to consistently implement takedowns against UFC-caliber opponents further amplifies concerns about his strategy against Ige, suggesting attractive betting upside on Ige as an underdog at +145 moneyline or +350 knockout props.

Paul Shaughnessy enthusiastically backs Dominick Reyes as a plus-money underdog against Nikita Krylov. Shaughnessy argues market disrespect toward Reyes is unwarranted, despite previous struggles and a losing streak against tough fighters such as Ryan Spann, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He notes Reyes' promising recent performances including an impressive showing against Anthony Smith where Reyes appeared motivated, confident, and assertive, suggesting his mindset and momentum have significantly rebounded. Meanwhile, Shaughnessy highlights Krylov’s concerning long layoff due to injuries, health issues, and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical complications, casting doubt upon Krylov’s readiness and condition. Considering Reyes' strong takedown defense demonstrated against Jon Jones (2-for-9 on takedowns attempted) and superior boxing volume, Shaughnessy finds Reyes significantly undervalued, presenting excellent betting upside at current odds.