Paulie advised betting Viktor Hovland to finish Top-20 at +120, arguing that the books are treating him as if he were out of form despite a rock-solid season. Hovland has made the cut in all four majors with three top-30 results, highlighted by a third at the U.S. Open, and already owns a win this year at the Valspar Championship. Statistically, he has gained strokes on approach in every tournament since Kapalua, underscoring elite iron play that suits TPC Southwind’s ball-striking demands. His track record at this event improves annually—59th, 36th, 20th, 13th, and second over the last five seasons—suggesting further upside. Given his trending finishes and spotless approach numbers, Paulie believes a top-20 ticket at +120 is a clear value.

Paulie recommended a Top-20 wager on Matt Fitzpatrick at +110. He noted that TPC Southwind punishes errant shots with thick bermuda rough and numerous water hazards, so sustained tee-to-green excellence is critical. Fitzpatrick fits that profile: he has gained significant strokes both off the tee and on approach in every start since before the Masters and has posted four straight top-eight finishes while failing to finish outside the top 40 in any event over that span. Course history reinforces the play—Fitzpatrick has landed inside the top 20 here in four of the last six editions. Paulie concluded that Fitzpatrick’s current form and proven success on demanding ball-striker tracks make the +110 number undervalued.

Paulie labeled Nick Taylor a true boom-or-bust longshot worth sprinkling at 170/1. Taylor has captured a PGA Tour title in each of the past three seasons (2025 Sony, 2024 WM Phoenix, 2023 Canadian Open) and has finished 23rd or better in his last four starts, indicating a clear upward trend. Calling him "not afraid of the big moment," Paulie argued Taylor is one of the few deep numbers who could actually close if he finds himself in Sunday contention.

Paulie highlighted J.J. Spaun at 80/1 as another mis-tagged longshot. Spaun owns four top-three finishes in 2025, including a U.S. Open victory and a playoff loss at the Players, and is inside every top-20 ranking system. Paulie thinks the inflated number is solely because this will be Spaun’s first Open appearance, projecting the price to shorten to roughly 60/1 by tee-off. He encouraged bettors to capitalize on the rookie narrative discount before it disappears.

Paulie said Sepp Straka is one of the best outright values on the Royal Portrush board at 65/1. Straka already owns two wins and two additional top-five finishes in 2025 signature events and sits 10th in the OWGR, yet books are hanging a number that Paulie believes should be closer to 45/1 by Thursday. He also reminded readers that Straka finished runner-up at the 2023 Open, proof he can handle links golf. Paulie advised jumping on the long price now before the market corrects.

Paulie urged bettors to pass on Rory McIlroy at +475. Although Rory ended an 11-year major drought by winning the Masters last month and owns three career victories at Quail Hollow, the +475 number equates to a 17.4% chance to win—odds Paulie views as inflated. He believes the market is overreacting to recent form and course history, noting that comparable power-putting profiles like Bryson and Xander are trading at three to four times the price. With a deep field and Rory’s long-term major inconsistency outside Augusta, Paulie considers the outright line a poor value play.

Paulie recommended fading Scottie Scheffler at +400 to win at Quail Hollow. While Scheffler won his last start and remains world-class, Paulie argued that the course de-emphasizes Scottie’s elite iron play and spotlights his relative weaknesses—length off the tee and putting. Scheffler is merely average in both categories this season and has never played Quail Hollow in an individual event, hinting at possible discomfort with its demands. The +400 price implies a 20% win probability; Paulie believes that’s far too aggressive given the course fit concerns and the strength of power-putting specialists like Bryson and Xander in this field.

Paulie advised backing Xander Schauffele at 18/1 to repeat as PGA champion. Despite a rib injury that slowed his early 2025 season, Schauffele has finished 18th or better in four straight starts and owns a streak of 12 consecutive top-18s in majors, highlighted by last year’s victories at both the PGA Championship and Open Championship. Stat-wise, Xander sits top-20 in driving distance and putting—exactly the skill set Paulie values at Quail Hollow’s driver-heavy, slippery-green setup. The course history backs it up: Schauffele has finished runner-up in Charlotte in each of the last two regular PGA Tour stops. With the betting market focused on Scheffler and McIlroy, Paulie believes 18/1 is a clear value on a player who checks every box.

Paulie said Bryson DeChambeau is a must-bet at 14/1 to win the 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. He noted Bryson ranks top-15 on Tour in both driving distance and putting, the two stats he believes will decide this major because the layout features nine par-4s of 449+ yards, three par-5s reachable in two, and quick, sloped greens that create a high volume of putts inside 15 feet. DeChambeau’s major resume since 2020—two wins and seven top-6 finishes in 19 starts—reinforces his big-stage comfort. Narrowing the sample to majors that reward power (U.S. Open and PGA), Bryson has five top-4s and two victories in just nine starts. Paulie expects the 14/1 number to shorten to roughly 10/1 by Thursday, so he urged bettors to lock it in early.

Paulie urged bettors not to chase Rory McIlroy at +475. Yes, Rory just ended his decade-long major drought by winning the Masters and owns three career victories at Quail Hollow, but Paulie stressed those data points are already fully—or even overly—priced in. A +475 number equates to a 17.4% chance to win, which Paulie believes is aggressive given Rory’s lone major since 2014 and the depth of big-hitting, hot-putter threats in the field. He prefers Bryson at 14/1 and Xander at 18/1, arguing that their odds should not be three to four times longer than Rory’s.

Paulie warned bettors to pass on Scottie Scheffler at +400. Although Scheffler won his last start and looks dominant overall, Quail Hollow’s formula of length off the tee and above-average putting targets the two relative ‘weaknesses’ in Scottie’s skill set. Scheffler has never teed it up here in an individual event, which raises additional course-knowledge questions. A +400 ticket implies a 20% win probability—too rich in Paulie’s view considering the course mismatch and lack of reps at Quail Hollow.

Paulie advised grabbing Xander Schauffele at 18/1 before the market corrects. Schauffele’s early-season rib injury pushed him off the radar, yet he has quietly finished 18th or better in all four starts since returning. More importantly, he has placed 18th or better in 12 straight majors, collecting two wins last year (PGA and Open). Like DeChambeau, Xander sits inside the TOUR top-20 in both driving distance and putting—precisely the two traits Quail Hollow accentuates. He has also finished runner-up at this venue in back-to-back PGA Tour stops. Given that profile, Paulie believes 18/1 is at least one click too long.

Paulie said Bryson DeChambeau is undervalued at 14/1 because Quail Hollow rewards exactly what Bryson does best—driving distance and streaky putting. DeChambeau ranks top-15 on TOUR in both metrics, and since 2020 he owns two major titles and seven top-6 finishes in just 19 major starts. Narrow that to his two best set-ups, the U.S. Open and PGA Championship, and Bryson boasts five top-4s—including two wins—in nine tries. With two drivable par 4s and three reachable par 5s on the card, Paulie expects bombers with a hot putter to separate. He anticipates Bryson’s price will tighten to roughly 10/1 by Thursday and recommends locking in the 14/1 now.