Richard Louis relayed that the SportsLine Projection Model simulated Cubs-Phillies 10,000 times and came out with an average of 9.3 combined runs. With the market total sitting at 8, the model is officially “leaning Over,” implying a 1.3-run edge relative to the posted number. The model is riding a 13-6 (+415) start on top-rated MLB picks this season, so its projection carries weight. Bettors looking to tail the model would lock in the Over 8 before the line moves, banking on Chicago’s top-10 offense led by Kyle Tucker (1.060 OPS) and Philadelphia’s power duo of Kyle Schwarber and Bryson Stott to do most of the scoring damage.

Richard Louis relayed that the SportsLine Projection Model, fresh off a 13-6 run on top-rated picks (+415), spit out an average of 9.3 combined runs after 10,000 simulations of Friday’s Phillies-Cubs matchup. With FanDuel hanging the total at 8, the model is showing a full run and change of cushion, making the Over the recommended play. The projection leans on Chicago’s middle-of-the-order pop (Kyle Tucker already at 7 HR, .314 AVG, 1.060 OPS) and Philadelphia’s power tandem of Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber (both batting near .300 with 7 HR apiece) to offset two starters—Colin Rea (1.32 ERA) and Taijuan Walker (2.29 ERA)—who are still stretching out in the early season. Day-game conditions at Wrigley and a Phillies bullpen that has stumbled during a four-game losing skid further support the high-scoring script.

Richard Louis reported that the SportsLine Projection Model cranked out 10,000 simulations of Thursday’s Seattle–Boston series finale and came away leaning to the Over on the 8-run total. The model spits out 8.8 combined runs, giving nearly a full run of cushion on the listed number at most books. Louis pointed out several run-scoring catalysts that square with the projection: Boston’s top of the order is on fire—Trevor Story is slashing .319/.375/.596 with five homers and Alex Bregman enters on a four-game hit streak and 19 RBI already in his new uniform—while Seattle counters with league co-leader in homers Cal Raleigh (nine bombs, .946 OPS) and an aggressive base-running unit that ranks third in MLB with 32 steals. Even with promising young starters (Bryan Woo 3.12 ERA, Garrett Crochet 1.13 ERA), the model expects Fenway’s noon start and two lineups full of power and speed to create enough traffic for the Over to cash.

In his breakdown of Saturday’s NL East tilt, Richard Louis argued that Philadelphia is positioned to cover the -1.5 run line (-105) against Miami. The Phillies have momentum after back‑to‑back wins, including Friday’s 7‑2 opener, while the Marlins limp in on a four‑game skid. Louis pointed to a stark pitching mismatch: Taijuan Walker owns a 1‑1 record with a 2.30 ERA and has allowed only one barrel in 15.2 innings, whereas Cal Quantrill’s 5.79 ERA is supported by a .481 expected slugging and six homers yielded in three starts. Offensively, Philadelphia leads MLB with a .352 OBP over the last week, powered by Kyle Schwarber’s 15 RBI and Bryce Harper’s recent two‑run blast. Miami’s lineup remains top‑heavy, relying on rookie Matt Mervis (team‑high six HR) and table‑setter Xavier Edwards. With the Phillies averaging 5.7 runs at home and the Marlins bullpen posting a 5.38 ERA on the road, Louis sees enough of an edge to back Philadelphia on the run line rather than pay the steep -200 money line.

In his breakdown of the game, Richard Louis highlighted why Arizona is worth a look at ‑1.5 (+116). The Diamondbacks have ripped off five straight wins and are averaging 6.6 runs during that stretch. Corbin Carroll enters on a 10‑game hitting streak while ranking 12th in MLB with a .329 average, tied for fourth in homers (6) and ninth in RBI (16); Josh Naylor has homered in three consecutive games and owns a .328/.382/.672 slash line. Facing a Cubs club that has dropped two of its last three and will counter with Colin Rea—who has struck out only 10 batters in 9 IP—Louis believes Arizona’s red‑hot middle of the order gives them enough firepower to win by multiple runs, especially with Corbin Burnes projected for positive regression after an uncharacteristic 5.28 ERA through his first two starts.

Richard Louis reported that the SportsLine Projection Model ran 10,000 simulations of Friday’s matchup at Wrigley Field and projects only 9.1 combined runs, well below the current 11‑run total posted at FanDuel. The model is on an 8‑3 (+340) money‑line run this season and recommends betting the Under, citing both Chicago’s recent offensive lull (only six total runs in their last three games) and the fact that Colin Rea has opened 2025 with a 1.00 ERA across two starts. Although Arizona arrives on a five‑game winning streak, the model still sees value in fading a double‑digit total given that Wrigley’s early‑season temperatures are expected to sit in the mid‑50s with a modest 7‑mph cross‑wind, conditions that historically suppress home‑run carry at this park.

Richard Louis cites SportsLine's advanced model, which strongly favors the over for total scored runs set at 8.5. The simulated model projection anticipates a combined total of 9.2 runs, suggesting value exists in betting the over. Louis notes explicitly that the model, routinely reliable and profitable (+629 on run-line picks), identifies considerable value on one specific side of the money line for the Mariners-Reds Event.

Richard Louis cites SportsLine's advanced model, which strongly favors the over for total scored runs set at 8.5. The simulated model projection anticipates a combined total of 9.2 runs, suggesting value exists in betting the over. Louis notes explicitly that the model, routinely reliable and profitable (+629 on run-line picks), identifies considerable value on one specific side of the money line for the Mariners-Reds Event.

Richard Louis spotlights Julio Rodriguez as a hitter likely to be productive given his developing bat control and improving contact ability. Thus far, Rodriguez has accumulated three home runs, seven RBI, and two triples, in addition to multiple hits in two of his last four games. Louis specifically highlights Rodriguez's recent successful outing against Texas (April 13), where he secured multiple hits and drove in a run. Facing Cincinnati's Brady Singer, Louis indicates Rodriguez is primed for another strong offensive performance, recommending Rodriguez as a solid DFS target.

Richard Louis highlights Gavin Lux as a strong, value-oriented fantasy or betting play based on his consistent batting contributions. Lux leads the Reds with a .276 batting average, to go with 16 hits and 7 RBI. Emphasizing his recent productivity, Louis draws attention to Lux's 4-for-4 performance against the Mariners Tuesday, during which he drove in two runs and scored another. Lux already has three multi-hit games, and Louis notes his reliable high-contact approach at the plate makes him especially appealing against Seattle's pitcher Bryan Woo in Thursday's game.

Richard Louis points out the surging power of catcher Cal Raleigh, who now leads the Mariners with 7 home runs and 10 RBI, having homered in four of his past five games. Raleigh's recent power surge included a two-home run performance in Wednesday's victory over the Reds. Considering Raleigh's consistent recent production and power proficiency, Louis indicates Raleigh as a strong DFS play and reliable fantasy acquisition amidst his current hot streak.

Richard Louis highlights Elly De La Cruz as a dynamic and smooth offensive threat for Cincinnati. De La Cruz is tied for fourth in MLB with 18 RBI, also possessing three home runs and 16 total hits. Louis specifically emphasizes De La Cruz's recent form, including his grand slam against Pittsburgh on April 12. Given the matchup against Seattle Mariners pitcher Bryan Woo, who has a solid overall ERA but faces a potent Reds lineup at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, Louis notes De La Cruz as a favorable bet to contribute significantly in Thursday's series finale.

Richard Louis underscored Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia as a reason to back Kansas City. Garcia shows strong pitch recognition and is batting .279 with two home runs and six RBI. Recently, he's hit safely in three of his last five games, including a notable two-hit game against Baltimore. Garcia's consistent plate discipline provides rationale to support Kansas City betting propositions against Cleveland.

Richard Louis spotlighted Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. as key factor supporting the Royals' potential to cover. Witt Jr. has been consistently productive, sporting a .280 average with team-leading 14 hits. His consistent extra-base hitting includes doubles in three consecutive games. Given his ongoing run of impressive batting performances, Witt Jr.'s hot bat makes Kansas City a solid betting target.

Richard Louis identified Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan as a pivotal reason the Guardians can cover against Kansas City. Kwan is posting a .356 batting average, leading his team in hits (16), and demonstrating consistent plate discipline. He is coming off an impressive 4-for-5 performance with a home run, four RBI, and two runs scored. Kwan's reliability and hot streak offer confidence backing Cleveland.

Richard Louis highlighted Cleveland Guardians first baseman Carlos Santana as reason for Cleveland to cover against the Royals. Santana enters the matchup hitting .267 with two home runs and four RBI this season. Historically, he's dominated the Royals across a substantial sample size, hitting 32 home runs, 95 RBI, and scoring 96 runs in 168 career games against Kansas City. Given this consistent long-term success against the opponent, Santana provides leverage for betting on the Guardians.

Richard Louis highlighted Jasson Dominguez as a strong option to go over 0.5 hits at -210 odds facing Pirates' pitcher Bailey Falter. Dominguez has started well in 2025, hitting .292 with seven total hits and coming off a 2-for-4 performance in Friday's opener against Pittsburgh that included two RBIs and a double. He's recorded multiple hits in three straight games. Falter has struggled early, surrendering seven hits in his first start against Miami Marlins. Those factors make Dominguez's single hit prop a highly compelling bet for Saturday's matchup.

Richard Louis advised targeting Aaron Judge to collect at least one RBI in the Yankees matchup with the Pirates at -115 odds. Judge has begun the season in dominant form, leading MLB with 17 RBI and six home runs through only seven games. He produced two RBIs against the Pirates in the series opener on Friday and has recorded at least one RBI in four of seven contests this year. Judge has historically excelled versus Pittsburgh too, totaling 15 hits and 10 RBI against the Pirates, making this RBI prop especially attractive against Pittsburgh's pitching staff, currently ranked seventh-worst in runs allowed across MLB.

Richard Louis recommended placing a bet on the Pirates at +140 in their matchup against the Yankees on April 5. Louis referenced SportsLine's model projection, which forecasts 4.5 runs for Pittsburgh offense against Yankees pitcher Marcus Stroman, who struggled last season with a high 1.47 WHIP and started slow this year giving up three earned runs in just 4.2 innings during his first start. Despite being sizable underdogs, the model sees substantial value in Pittsburgh and gives them a 42% chance of winning, justifying the Pirates as a smart betting play at plus-money odds.