Rob Pizzola urged bettors to pump the brakes on Detroit in September. He reminded listeners that the Lions lost both coordinators in the off-season—calling the departed OC an “offensive genius” and noting former DC Aaron Glenn is also gone. Pizzola expects the defense to get healthier and ultimately improve, but he thinks the offense will sputter while a new staff finds its footing. With the market rushing to back Detroit as short underdogs at Green Bay, he prefers staying away or even fading them early and looking for unders until the new play-calling settles in.

Rob Pizzola grabbed Houston +3 as his silver pick. He expects Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense to be out of sync after a preseason in which Stafford barely played and left tackle "Larry Jackson" just returned from injury. Pizzola praised new head coach DeMeco Ryans as an elite defensive game-planner who disguises pressure and forces quarterbacks to hold the ball. He forecast consistent heat on Stafford and a potential Rams rust factor that makes winning by margin difficult. Although he concedes Houston’s receiving corps could be thin if Christian Kirk cannot go, he thinks asking Los Angeles to cover a field goal in a low-scoring opener is too much.

Rob Pizzola laid the −3.5 (even money) with Jacksonville, saying he makes the number Jaguars −4.5. He projects a noticeable step forward under new coordinator Liam Cohen but thinks the bigger edge is on defense: Carolina will likely be without left tackle Ikem Ekwonu (downgraded to doubtful) and has both starting guards on the injury report, putting three of five offensive-line spots in jeopardy for Week 1. Pizzola expects the Jaguars’ defensive front to dominate that depleted unit, forcing long-yardage situations and turnovers. Given the injury report and his higher personal number, he is comfortable laying up to −4 and likes Jacksonville as a strong leg in teasers as well.

Rob Pizzola said he laid the points with Jacksonville because Carolina’s offensive front is already falling apart. Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu was downgraded to doubtful while both starting guards – Robert Hunt and the opposite guard whose name he did not specify – landed on the Week-1 injury report. That means three of the Panthers’ five starters are in question, a spot Pizzola expects the Jaguars’ defensive line to dominate. He moved his personal number to Jacksonville –4.5 (market was –3.5 when they recorded) and believes the trench mismatch plus a deeper Jacksonville receiving corps around Trevor Lawrence gives the Jags clear value against the spread.

Rob Pizzola said he is grabbing Cleveland +5.5 (and sprinkling the +200 money-line) in Week 1. He reminded listeners that divisional openers historically play tighter and noted that this matchup has consistently troubled Joe Burrow because the Browns generate pressure with their front four. Pizzola trusts Joe Flacco to replicate last year’s success against bottom-10 pass defenses—his EPA per drop-back in those spots has been "through the roof"—and believes David Njoku can exploit the soft middle of a Bengals secondary that showed no meaningful off-season upgrades after finishing in the bottom-10 of defensive EPA in 2024. With Cincinnati “over-rated in the market” and still unable to stop anyone, Pizzola feels the current spread is simply too many points and calls the outright upset live.

Rob Pizzola said he "fails to see how the Titans get to 14 points" in Denver. His reasoning: rookie Cam Ward debuts on the road against an elite Broncos defense and must deal with Denver’s notorious early-season altitude advantage. Pizzola added that Tennessee’s 2024 profile looked competitive only when turnovers were removed from the box score, yet Ward’s college tape showed the same interception-risk tendencies. He recommends targeting the Titans’ team-total Under—especially any number 14.5 or higher—because Denver’s defense plus game-script pressure should keep Tennessee under two touchdowns.