Romanelli targeted a scoring prop instead of a side, betting Over 4.5 runs in the first five innings at Citi Field. He praised Kodai Senga’s competitiveness but pointed out lingering command issues—three walks, five hits, multiple hard-hit balls in a six-inning, three-run no-decision against Boston. Facing the Dodgers’ top-three OPS offense amplifies that danger. On the other mound, Landon Knack has struggled all season, and Ron expects the Mets to capitalize on his flat cutter early. With both starters profiling for traffic and two bullpens that were heavily taxed earlier in the series, Romanelli sees runs coming in bunches before the sixth inning hits.

Romanelli recommended San Diego on the road, emphasizing Dylan Cease’s continued mastery of Atlanta’s lineup—30% strikeout rate and a .278 expected wOBA across the current roster. After a rocky April, Cease has allowed three or fewer runs in five straight starts (two or fewer in four). Spencer Schwellenbach opened 2025 hot but has begun to leak hard contact, giving up four runs to Boston last time out. Ron doubts the rookie will receive the same eight-run cushion he enjoyed in that game, and he trusts the Padres’ deeper bullpen should this turn into a late-inning battle. He labeled San Diego a plus-EV moneyline play.

Ron Romanelli grabbed Miami on the moneyline, arguing the market is overreacting to the Angels’ recent win streak. Kyle Hendricks still sports a 5+ ERA and lacks swing-and-miss stuff, hardly the profile to justify chalk. Edward Cabrera’s ERA is similar on paper, but Romanelli noted the upside: seven strikeouts in his last outing against the Cubs and a 3-2 team record over his past five starts, with the two defeats coming by a single run (one in extras at Dodger Stadium). Miami ranks above league average versus righties, giving Cabrera reasonable run support. Ron thinks Cabrera’s whiffs keep the game close and the Marlins’ patient lineup eventually cracks Hendricks, making Miami a value dog play.

Romanelli laid −1.5 with Philadelphia, citing a massive starting-pitching disparity. Jesus Luzardo just carved up Colorado for six innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts at altitude, and the Phillies have won each of his last five turns. Gunnar Hoglund, meanwhile, has surrendered nine earned over his past two outings (10 IP) with five homers, five walks, and 13 hits, undoing the promise from his debut. Ron expects the Phillies’ top-five May OPS to punish Hoglund’s erratic fastball early, giving Luzardo a comfortable cushion before the dependable Philly bullpen closes the door.

Ron Romanelli said the Yankees are worth both the traditional −1.5 and the alt −2.5 run line at Coors Field. He acknowledged Will Warren’s first-time Coors risk—two-homer blemish when he faced Colorado in the Bronx last year and a fly-ball profile that can be punished in Denver—but stressed Warren’s swing-and-miss upside (19 strikeouts over his last two starts) should keep the damage from spiraling. On the other side, Antonio Senzatela has imploded: four-plus earned runs in five straight outings, a 1-8 record, and an ERA north of six with opponents batting .322. Romanelli pointed to the Rockies’ lopsided final scores in Senzatela starts and believes even if Colorado tags Warren for an early homer or two, New York’s offense will quickly overwhelm a fatigued Rockies bullpen, cashing the run-line tickets.

Romanelli prefers St. Louis, explaining that Brandon Fatt’s inconsistency—no strikeouts in six innings last start and four homers allowed in two outings—makes him vulnerable to a Cardinals lineup that has surged offensively in May. Even though Sonny Gray’s individual matchup metrics versus Arizona are only average, Ron believes the worst-case scenario is a wash between starters; best case, Fatt surrenders early runs and St. Louis cruises at Busch Stadium.

Ron grabbed Chicago as a home dog, doubting Patrick Corbin’s ability to justify road chalk. While Corbin has been better in 2025, he faltered against the Yankees and Texas is just 1-4 in his last five starts. On the flip side, Davis Martin keeps the ball on the ground (14-9 GB/FB last outing) and owns only two walks in 23 May innings. With the Rangers’ offense ranking among MLB’s worst on the road, Romanelli sees the White Sox as the sharper side.

Romanelli backed Seattle, pointing to Luis Castillo’s dominant career line against Houston’s current roster—nearly 30% K-rate, 1.6% walk rate, .222 xBA over 120+ PA. Castillo is in form, while rookie Colton Gordon carries a 5-plus ERA and faces a Mariners lineup that should capitalize on his command lapses. Even acknowledging the Astros’ strong home bats, Ron believes Castillo’s edge and Seattle’s bullpen tilt the matchup.

Ron played the UNDER behind Chris Bubich—second-best ERA among qualified starters—and Bailey Ober, who sports a 2.59 ERA with 25 K in 24.1 home innings. He highlighted Minnesota’s sub-700 May OPS and high K-rate versus lefties, plus Kansas City’s general struggles against quality righties. With both bullpens dependable and Target Field suppressing power, Romanelli projects a tight, low-scoring affair.

Romanelli took the Blue Jays moneyline, trusting Chris Bassitt’s strikeout-per-inning clip and solid control over Ryan Pepiot, who has been homer-prone at Steinbrenner Field. Toronto’s lineup owns one of May’s best right-on-right OPS figures, and Ron believes they’re slightly stronger than the slumping Rays offense. With Bassitt missing bats despite recent hard contact, he expects Toronto to scrape enough runs and lean on its bullpen for a road win.

Ron advised backing Chicago for the full nine innings. He admitted Ben Brown can allow early damage, yet trusts the Cubs’ offense—top tier versus lefties—to eventually chase inconsistent Nick Lodolo and exploit Cincinnati’s shaky bullpen. Romanelli compared it to Game 1 of the series when Chicago stormed back for a 13-6 win, emphasizing the Cubs’ superior lineup depth in late-game scenarios.

Romanelli grabbed Washington on the moneyline, arguing Mike Soroka’s underlying improvements make him undervalued against Robbie Ray. Soroka owns an 8-to-4 K-BB ratio in his last start and just four walks across 20 IP this season after posting 44 walks in 79.2 IP last year. He faces a Giants lineup that is only league-average versus righties. Meanwhile, Ray’s expected metrics aren’t elite and the Nationals sit top-10 in May OPS vs lefties with a high walk rate and low strikeout rate, giving them a favorable offensive matchup.

Ron recommended the full-game UNDER, citing stellar recent work from Milwaukee rookie Logan Henderson (23 K, 16 IP, 1.69 ERA) and a bounce-back Bailey Falter who now carries a sub-4.00 ERA. He pointed out Pittsburgh’s lineup remains one of MLB’s weakest while Milwaukee owns the second-worst OPS and 26% K-rate versus left-handers in May. With both pens trusted, Romanelli projects a tight, low-run contest at PNC Park.

Romanelli backed Boston on the moneyline, stressing that Walker Bueller has been a “winning machine” despite a 4.00 ERA. The Red Sox are unbeaten in his two Fenway starts (3.05 ERA), and the bullpen proved resilient after Bueller’s recent ejection. In contrast, Dean Kremer has surrendered four-plus runs in back-to-back outings and Baltimore is 1-4 over his last five turns. With Kremer’s form cratering and Bueller’s win profile intact, Ron expects another Sox victory at home.

Ron Romanelli said Detroit is a run-line buy because Tarik Skubal owns the clear mound advantage over Logan Allen. Romanelli noted the Tigers rank top-5 in May OPS versus left-handed pitching while striking out at a low clip, whereas Cleveland’s 638 OPS against southpaws sits below league average. He expects regression for Allen after a rocky outing against Minnesota on May 19, predicting Detroit scores early and often while Skubal delivers a quality start at spacious Comerica Park.

Romanelli is laying the -1.5 with Detroit because Jose Soriano cannot be trusted at Angel Stadium. The right-hander owns pronounced home/road splits and chronic control issues, and the Angels are 1-4 in his last five starts with all four losses coming by multiple runs (scores of 5-0, 9-3, etc.). With Tarik Skubal carrying a sub-2.00 ERA and facing a slumping L.A. lineup, Romanelli predicts a one-sided Tigers victory and a comfortable run-line cover.

Romanelli’s favorite total is the under at Oracle Park. He expects Robbie Ray—fresh off a 7-IP, 8-K gem—to handle a Colorado offense that just struck out 12 times against Chris Sale. Ray’s swing-and-miss profile plays in spacious Oracle, and Antonio Senzatela brings a solid 3.02 road ERA to face a Giants lineup with worrisome underlying metrics. Given two strikeout-prone offenses, a marine layer–friendly park, and bullpens he trusts more than the bats, Romanelli projected a low-scoring game and bet the under.

Romanelli is doubling down on the Mets run-line because the club is 5-1 in Clay Holmes’ six starts and has covered the spread in each of the last four, including a 7-4 win over Sonny Gray and these same Cardinals. Holmes has given New York consistent length, and the lineup already touched Gray for three runs and a homer in six frames at Citi Field. Even away from Queens—where the Mets have been dominant—Romanelli trusts the combo of Holmes’ form and an offense averaging 6.4 runs in his last five turns to extend the run-line streak in St. Louis.

Romanelli recommended playing the Cubs in the first five innings—either laying the half-run or taking the money-line—because Ben Brown provides a slight starting-pitching edge over Quinn Priester and Chicago’s bats crush right-handed pitching. He noted the Cubs bullpen is not playoff-caliber while Milwaukee’s relief corps projects better going forward, so isolating the opening five frames removes that late-inning liability. Priester’s 4.35 xFIP and shaky command suggest regression, and Romanelli expects the Cubs’ top-10 wRC+ versus righties to show up early before the Brewer bullpen can stabilize the game.

Romanelli is betting the Mariners money-line because Jack Leiter’s command remains unreliable. In his first start back from injury the former No. 2 overall pick issued four walks in just 3.1 innings, continuing a career-long control problem that has followed him from the minors. Unfortunately for Leiter, Seattle owns the highest walk percentage against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks (11.9 %) while pairing it with an .868 OPS and .218 ISO. Bryan Woo gives Seattle a steadier arm, and the Rangers offense has been wildly inconsistent. Romanelli expects the patient Mariners to force Leiter into deep counts, chase him early, and cash as road favorites.

Romanelli is laying the run line with Houston, noting Framber Valdez has tossed 14 innings of four-run ball over his last two starts yet received just two total runs of support. He expects that to change against rookie Jonathan Cannon and a bottom-tier White Sox bullpen. Romanelli liked the quality of Houston’s late-inning at-bats against Detroit— multiple comeback wins and several bases-loaded chances in the finale— and believes those trends carry over even on the road. With Valdez still dealing and Cannon’s 4.83 xERA backed by ugly hard-hit data, Romanelli predicts the Astros win comfortably by multiple runs.

Ron Romanelli advised taking the Braves money-line because Grant Holmes has been a different pitcher at Truist Park. Holmes’ last two home outings added up to 9.2 innings of one-run baseball with 13 strikeouts, a stark contrast to his April appearance at Dodger Stadium where he was tagged for four runs in four frames. Romanelli thinks the day off after a taxing Coors Field series will help Atlanta’s bats, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto arrives off his worst MLB start—four walks in five innings and a 3-0 loss to Pittsburgh. With Holmes’ home splits, Atlanta’s rested lineup, and plus money on the board, Romanelli called the Braves the best price play of Friday’s slate.

Romanelli expects Miami to handle rookie right-hander Osvaldo Bido and is looking at both the Marlins’ money line and their team-total over. Bido’s current 18 % strikeout rate and elevated hard-hit percentage give a surprisingly competent Miami offense—11th in wOBA versus right-handers—a chance to put up a crooked number. Even after being swept by the Dodgers, the Marlins showed resilience by clawing back from multiple multi-run deficits, and Romanelli believes that mindset carries over in a softer matchup. While Miami has yet to announce a starter and its bullpen remains shaky, the handicap centers on Bido’s inability to miss bats; Romanelli thinks the Fish score early and often enough to win and clear their total.

Romanelli is taking Minnesota as short road favorites behind Joe Ryan, who owns a 27:3 K:BB over his last 20 innings and has produced quality starts in both of his career appearances against Boston. Ryan’s riding a career-best whiff rate and should benefit from Fenway’s marine layer in a cool May night. Conversely, Walker Buehler has struck out only three of the last 24 batters he’s faced and was barreled up seven times by Cleveland. Romanelli likes the Twins’ recent approach—cutting strikeouts and ranking top-10 in hard-hit rate over the last week—and trusts their fourth-ranked bullpen to finish the job. He’s on Minnesota’s money line.

Romanelli’s favorite Friday total is the under in Cleveland–Toronto. Chris Bassitt owns a sub-1.00 ERA at Rogers Centre this year and pairs a 50 % ground-ball rate with the league’s best chase-inducing curve, elements Romanelli believes will limit a Guardians club that rarely hits for power. On the other side, Logan Allen has allowed only one run over his last 11.1 road innings and now faces a Jays lineup that boasts strong expected batting averages but ranks near the bottom in isolated power. Add Cleveland’s top-rated bullpen and Romanelli projects both staffs to keep crooked numbers off the board, making the under his preferred play.

Romanelli continues to ride Max Fried, noting the Yankees are 6-0 when he starts and the lefty sports a 1.19 ERA with only one homer allowed. The Rays’ offense ranks just 23rd in wRC+ over the last two weeks and has struggled in pitcher-friendly parks, making Fried a strong bet to keep rolling while Gerrit Cole remains shelved. Ryan Pepiot, meanwhile, has already surrendered eight long balls and carries a fly-ball profile ill-suited for Yankee Stadium’s short porch. Romanelli expects New York’s right-handed power—third in HR rate versus RHP—to take advantage, so he’s laying both money line and run line with the Yankees.

Romanelli is backing Baltimore because he expects Dean Kremer to look more like the pitcher who tossed 5.1 innings of one-run ball in his lone 2025 start at Camden Yards. Five of Kremer’s first six outings came on the road, skewing his surface stats, but he now faces a Royals lineup that sits bottom-10 in OPS versus right-handers. On the other side, Michael Wacha already allowed four runs to the O’s in April and owns a .270 xBA against. Baltimore’s offense ranks fifth in ISO versus RHP, and despite early hiccups, Romanelli trusts the Orioles’ deep bullpen to hold any lead. He is playing the Orioles on the money line.

Romanelli advised fading Merrill Kelly and taking the Phillies on the money line. Kelly’s road ERA has crept above 5.00 while his walk rate has spiked—nine free passes over his last three starts—and Romanelli expects Philadelphia’s lineup, which smashes mistake fastballs, to capitalize. He’s not deterred by the Phillies’ early bullpen woes, noting the unit finished with a top-five ERA after a similarly rough start last year and still projects highly by WAR. With Jesus Luzardo’s swing-and-miss arsenal neutralizing Arizona’s left-handed bats and the Phillies’ defense markedly better than the Mets club that stifled the D-backs earlier in the week, Romanelli sees Philadelphia controlling both the matchup and the series.

Romanelli recommended a full-game under at PNC Park, pointing to two strikeout arms and two ice-cold offenses. Dylan Cease’s 3.90 ERA hides a 2.80 xERA, and he now pitches in one of the league’s most forgiving parks against a Pirates lineup that is bottom-five in barrel rate. Mitch Keller counters with a 31 % CSW over his last three outings while drawing a Padres offense that ranks 28th in OPS versus right-handers in the past 14 days. Romanelli likes both bullpens—especially San Diego’s top-five unit by WAR—to slam the door once the starters exit, making a low-scoring opener his preferred wager.

Ron Romanelli said to back the Reds on both the money-line and run-line because Hunter Greene still owns the clear ceiling edge over rookie Mitchell Parker. Greene has coughed up five homers and eight earned runs in his last nine innings, but his 29 % strikeout rate lines up well against a Nationals lineup that chases at the sixth-highest clip in baseball. Great American Ball Park can punish any pitcher, yet Romanelli argues Parker is far more vulnerable after walking five and striking out none in his most recent start and now heading into the league’s most homer-friendly yard. Cincinnati has been top-10 in wRC+ versus lefties the past two weeks, and their bullpen is rested, so Romanelli expects Greene to pile up punch-outs while the Reds provide enough support to cover multiple ways.

Ron Romanelli recommended the under in Athletics vs Rangers, framing it as a classic pitchers’ duel. Nathan Eovaldi has opened 2025 with a 2.21 ERA, 38 strikeouts, and just three walks over 36.2 innings, showcasing pinpoint control. Opposite him, Luis Severino has been a revelation in Oakland green, allowing only one run in 14 road innings for a 0.64 away ERA. Romanelli noted that pitching in Sacramento’s bandbox skews Severino’s overall numbers upward, so his road dominance is telling. He also cited the Rangers’ sputtering offense—Texas has struggled to support Eovaldi all month—as another reason runs will be scarce. With both starters working efficiently and neither lineup in peak form, Romanelli projected a tight game and played the full-game under.

Ron Romanelli advised playing the full-game under in Brewers vs White Sox. He pointed to Chicago rookie Shane Smith’s eye-opening 2.30 ERA across 27.1 innings with only one homer surrendered, calling him the best arm in a bad rotation. The problem, Romanelli said, is the White Sox still field MLB’s lowest-scoring offense, so even Smith’s quality starts rarely push totals over. Tobias Myers gets what Romanelli called a bounce-back opportunity after a shaky outing; the right-hander faces "the weakest lineup in baseball" and owns a strike-throwing profile Romanelli trusts to keep traffic minimal. Given two competent starters, an anemic Chicago lineup, and Milwaukee’s own inconsistent bats, Romanelli projected a slow, low-run affair and told listeners to bet the under.

Romanelli expects runs because Carlos Carrasco sports a 5.26 ERA that balloons on the road (8 ER in 8.1 IP at DET/TB) and has already surrendered three homers away from Yankee Stadium. Baltimore should capitalize, yet rookie lefty Cade Povich was tagged for seven runs in his last Camden Yards outing and now faces a Yankee roster that punishes southpaws—Aaron Judge has already homered off him. Ron therefore played the full-game over.

Romanelli likes the under because Landen Roupp (SF) and Michael King (SD) have both been flashing quality-start form, and each club’s bullpen has been outperforming its offense lately. With neither lineup hitting and Petco’s pitcher-friendly dimensions, Ron expects a low-scoring affair.

Romanelli backed Toronto moneyline because Lucas Giolito’s control issues surfaced during rehab (high walk totals) and he likely won’t work deep. Jose Berrios, meanwhile, has bounced back after his rough Opening Day, holding Boston to one run over seven innings earlier this month, and the Jays have won four of his last five outings against quality opponents. Ron thinks the matchup favors Toronto from both a starting-pitching and lineup standpoint.

Ron recommended Rays ML (and potentially –1.5) because Drew Rasmussen has dominated at Steinbrenner Field: 15.2 IP, one run, 18 Ks, zero homers. Kansas City hasn’t announced a starter and ranks near the bottom of MLB against right-handed pitching, so Romanelli expects Tampa to cruise.

Romanelli played Philadelphia’s team total over because Jake Irvin already showed vulnerability against them earlier this year and currently owns one of the league’s highest expected ERAs due to consistent hard contact. Even without knowing the Phillies’ starter, Ron trusts their offense to crack Irvin early and tack on against a Washington bullpen carrying the worst ERA in baseball.

Ron took Cincinnati on both the moneyline and –1.5 because Andrew Abbott has historically pitched better at Great American Ball Park, while Steven Matz, though solid in relief, is being stretched out and faces a Reds lineup that handles left-handed pitching far better than the Cardinals. Cincinnati also owns the superior bullpen and home-field advantage, and St. Louis has been dreadful on the road this season.

Ron advised backing Minnesota ML and –1.5 because Pablo Lopez is the staff ace and draws the Guardians’ weakest rotation arm, Luis Ortiz. Despite injuries to Royce Lewis and others, the Twins’ offense has ignited over the past week, while Cleveland’s lineup still profiles as below average. Given the pitching mismatch and a superior bullpen, Romanelli projects a Twins win by margin.

Romanelli took Angels 1st-5 moneyline, pointing to Tyler Anderson’s 26% K-rate and .295 expected wOBA in 84 plate appearances against the current Mariners, while Seattle’s Emerson Hancock profiles better as a reliever and has struggled to work deep into games. Ron concedes L.A.’s bullpen disadvantage but believes Anderson’s matchup edge and the Halos’ ability to scratch a few early runs off Hancock justify isolating the first five innings.

Ron recommended Dodgers –1.5 because Tony Gonsolin’s season debut comes against a Miami lineup that, while competent versus righties, is unlikely to keep pace if Cal Quantrill repeats his shaky command (four runs and two homers in 5.2 IP last start). L.A. has provided run support all season and should exploit Quantrill’s 40% hard-hit rate. Romanelli noted the Marlins have won three of Quantrill’s last four, but he thinks Dodger Stadium is the wrong spot to keep that run going.

Romanelli likes the game total under because Chris Sale’s strikeout rate and recent form have improved, while Colorado’s lineup owns one of the league’s highest K-rates versus lefties. Rockies rookie Chase Dollander carries a 3.93 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA—much better than his surface ERA—and Ron thinks the former No. 1 prospect will keep the ball in the yard. With both starters trending up and the number inflated simply because the contest is at Coors, he sees value on the under.

Ron Romanelli said the Astros are a play on the moneyline because Hayden Wisnewski has quietly posted a sub-4.00 ERA with 26 strikeouts to only four walks through 28 innings, and Houston’s bats have been markedly better at Minute Maid Park. On the other side, rookie Jackson Jobe owns a shiny 2.70 ERA but an xFIP of 4.63 and a 4.79 SIERA that signal looming regression. Ron expects Houston to dent Jobe early and give Wisnewski enough support to cash the home side.

Romanelli advised grabbing the Marlins +1.5 or even sprinkling the moneyline because Miami has been a top-six moneyline profiteer in 2025 whereas the Dodgers are down a few units despite their record. He argued Edward Cabrera is far better than his 6.14 ERA thanks to elite strikeout stuff, and Miami’s offense has shown real improvement versus right-handed pitching. Conversely, Dustin May owns sparkling surface numbers but carries regression flags: low strikeout rate and extremely low BABIP. Given the price disparity and profitability trends, Romanelli feels the value sits squarely with Miami.

Romanelli likes two angles: take the A’s plus money and play the total Over. J.P. Sears and Patrick Corbin just faced these exact lineups last week, each logging five innings of two-run ball but giving up multiple long balls. He doubts they repeat that success the second time through, noting Oakland has quietly mashed left-handed pitching while Texas, despite overall 2025 struggles, has fared better versus southpaws. With both offenses seeing the same arms inside a week and each bullpen shaky, he predicts fireworks and thinks the market underrates the A’s ability to punish Corbin again.

Romanelli recommended backing the Cardinals because he wants no part of Nick Martinez in a starting role. Cincinnati is 0-5 when Martinez takes the ball, and even his near quality start last time out still ended in a loss to Miami. With the Reds returning from Coors Field with no travel day, he expects sluggish bats in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Although Andre Pallante has struggled recently, Romanelli trusts him and St. Louis’s bullpen more than Martinez and likes the price on the road favorite. He also leans under but called the Cards moneyline the primary play.

Romanelli advised laying the run-and-a-half with New York and playing the Yankees team-total over because he sees major regression coming for Baltimore’s Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano owns a 3.54 ERA but has struck out only nine batters in 28 innings and has faced weak competition (two starts vs Toronto plus Kansas City, Cleveland, Washington). He has surrendered six homers in his last four outings, including four over his last two. Romanelli expects the power-heavy Yankee lineup, one of MLB’s best versus right-handed pitching, to tag him early and often for his worst start yet. Will Warren, meanwhile, is coming off one of his best outings (5 IP, 2 ER) and should get far better run support this time. He projects a comfortable Yankees win and cover.

Ron Romanelli said to grab Minnesota on the moneyline because Bailey Ober’s ugly 5-plus ERA is entirely the product of an eight-run season debut. In his four outings since, Ober has allowed three runs or fewer every time and one run or fewer in three of those, while the Twins have gone 3-1 including wins over the Astros and Mets. Romanelli noted Ober owns strong career splits versus Cleveland’s current hitters, and Minnesota’s bullpen grades as one of the league’s best. The Twins offense, despite injuries, just produced its highest-scoring weekend of the season, giving him confidence the lineup is finally waking up. With early-season struggles keeping the price reasonable and every AL Central matchup carrying extra weight, he believes the Twins are undervalued here.