Ryan McDowell added fresh numbers to his fade of James Cook. Cook’s 2023 touchdown rate spiked to 7.7%, well above his 3.8% career average. McDowell calculated that if Cook had merely hit his own baseline rate, his fantasy production would have fallen from 16.5 PPR points per game to 13.5, turning an RB11 finish into RB21. Touchdowns already accounted for 41% of Cook’s total points—the highest share for any back with 60+ carries last season—making a repeat highly unlikely with Josh Allen siphoning goal-line work. Combine that with Buffalo’s reluctance to extend Cook, and McDowell sees more downside than upside at an RB13 startup price. He is steering clear even on contending rosters, recommending managers reallocate that capital to safer backs or elite receivers.

Ryan McDowell urged dynasty managers who are chasing a 2024 title to pivot from James Cook to Derrick Henry. He pointed out that Henry is going one slot after Cook in current startup ADP, yet brings a far sturdier production profile. McDowell walked listeners through Cook’s razor-thin margin for error—his 7.7% touchdown rate was almost double his 3.8% career norm and heavily inflated his 16.5 PPR points per game. Regressing Cook to his own average drops him to 13.5 PPR points, a tumble from RB11 to RB21. Given that Cook also lacks a new contract and still competes with Josh Allen at the goal line, McDowell prefers paying the same draft capital for Henry’s bankable short-yardage work and year-over-year volume. His advice: trade for Henry or select him over Cook whenever the choice presents itself.

Ryan McDowell expressed concern over James Cook at RB13 (56th overall). He pointed to Cook’s unresolved contract situation—highlighted by the back skipping voluntary minicamp—as a red flag for long-term dynasty value. McDowell noted that 41% of Cook’s 2023 fantasy production came from an outlier 16 rushing touchdowns, a number that is hard to sustain with Josh Allen’s league-leading 34 rushing scores over the last three seasons siphoning goal-line work. If Buffalo declines to extend him, managers could be left holding a one-year asset with an uncertain 2026 landing spot. Given the heavy TD dependency and contractual volatility, McDowell recommends selling or avoiding Cook at his current startup price.

Ryan McDowell said Caleb Williams is being overdrafted at 19th overall (QB9) in current Superflex dynasty startups. McDowell prefers the rookie in the mid-third round, noting that Williams is coming off the board ahead of established producers like Kyler Murray and several elite young wide receivers such as Brian Thomas, Nico Collins, and Drake London. He argued the depth at quarterback makes it unnecessary to pay a second-round price unless you believe Williams possesses legitimate top-three overall upside, which McDowell does not. If managers open a draft with a quarterback in round one, he recommends pivoting to wide receiver in round two and waiting for cheaper QB2 options later. In short, Williams’ current ADP bakes in near-ceiling expectations without the resume to justify it.

Ryan McDowell called Evan Engram the easiest dynasty buy on the board, baffled he sits at TE17 (152 overall)—his lowest ADP since December 2022. McDowell stressed that Sean Payton specifically went out and acquired Engram, finally giving the offensive mastermind a legitimate pass-catching tight end instead of the no-names Denver has cycled through. Payton’s history with Jimmy Graham and other hybrid ‘joker’ pieces suggests Engram will be schemed into mismatches rather than asked to block. Cooling concurred, noting Denver’s receiver group behind Cortland Sutton is mostly power-slot types like Devontae Vail and rookie Pat Bryant, paving the way for Engram to be the Broncos’ No. 2 target. At 30, Engram still runs like a big slot and only needs one or two 70-catch seasons to smash his 13th-round dynasty cost. Managers unwilling to pay first-round startup prices for Brock Bowers or Trey McBride can draft Engram as a cheap TE1 bridge with legitimate weekly top-six upside.

Ryan McDowell said Isaiah Likely is a screaming dynasty buy at TE16 (151 overall) because the Ravens keep telegraphing that Mark Andrews may not be on the Week-1 roster. McDowell is operating as if an Andrews trade or cut will happen within the next 100 days, pointing to Eric DeCosta’s refusal to shut down rumors and Baltimore’s quiet offseason at wide receiver. Likely already produced five TE1 games in a limited role last year—matching Dallas Goedert and Jake Ferguson—demonstrating fantasy viability even when sharing snaps. If Andrews moves, McDowell expects Likely’s startup ADP to spike into the top-8 tight ends overnight, a value jump comparable to Trey Benson’s contingent upside behind James Conner. Rich Cooling added that Baltimore’s lack of a true WR3 makes two-tight-end sets and frequent slot usage for Likely very likely, boosting his route volume. Worst-case Likely meets TE16 expectations; best-case drafters lock in an ascending, 22-year-old receiving weapon tethered to Lamar Jackson at a massive discount.

Ryan McDowell noted that Prescott was a top-10 dynasty quarterback before last season’s injury yet still sits at QB17 nearly six months later—an anomaly compared to most injured stars who regain value by February. Prescott has finished as a QB1 in 54 percent of his career games and, per McDowell, remains an ideal QB2 target in the third or fourth round for managers opening WR-heavy. The veteran’s floor combined with today’s unprecedented depth at the position allows drafters to sidestep an early QB run, grab elite receivers, and circle back to a proven producer whose price has not rebounded the way market history suggests it should.

Ryan McDowell said Trey Benson is a screaming value at RB42 (147 overall) in current Superflex dynasty startup ADP. The entire bet hinges on James Conner turning 30 and carrying a long injury history—2023 was the first year Conner ever cleared 15 games. McDowell argued Arizona will eventually need to see what it has in the 22-year-old, and even a modest bump in touches this season would spike Benson’s dynasty profile. One year ago Benson sat at RB17/89 overall pre-draft, so managers are getting a six-round discount despite nothing negative about his talent surfacing. If Conner goes down, Benson’s value likely rockets into the mid-RB2 range overnight, a jump none of the players drafted around him (Shedeur Sanders, Darnell Mooney, Jerome Ford, Jordan Mason) can match. McDowell framed Benson as the perfect third- or fourth-RB lottery ticket for managers who hammer wide receiver early and want asymmetric upside later.