Sascha Paruk relayed the model’s Packers -2.5 pick while acknowledging its brutal 0-8 record when it has touched Philadelphia spreads. He still sided with the computer, arguing that the same fade-Eagles approach has been cashing for months and expecting the skid to reach nine straight miscues feels riskier than riding the trend.

Sascha Paruk endorsed the algorithm’s Under 51.5 recommendation, stressing that the model owns a 7-2 record on Commanders totals while faring just 3-5 on Detroit. With that 78% hit rate on Washington Over/Unders, Paruk believes this is one of the rare spots where trusting the struggling system still makes sense.

Sascha Paruk backed the model’s call on Jacksonville +1.5, pointing out the software’s 6-2 ATS mark on Jaguars action compared to a middling 4-4 split on Houston. The algorithm’s broader numbers are ugly, but this matchup falls into the select bucket where its past reads have been reliably profitable.

Sascha Paruk highlighted the A.I. laying 5.5 with Indianapolis on the neutral field in Berlin, noting a perfect storm of historical edges: the tool is 7-2 when picking Colts spreads and a disastrous 0-8 when trying to time Falcons sides. Rather than fight the trend, Paruk advised riding with the computer’s strongest ATS performer (Indy) against the team it has whiffed on every single week (Atlanta).

Sascha Paruk said the in-house model is backing New England +2.5 and reminded readers that the A.I. has absolutely crushed Patriots sides this season, cashing eight of nine ATS calls involving Bill Belichick’s club. While the system’s overall NFL record sits at a bleak 60-74, its Pats read has been money, whereas Tampa Bay sits at just 5-3 against the number in those same model picks. Paruk framed the wager as the clearest spot to lean on the data because it is the one team the algorithm consistently understands.

Paruk warned that Josh Jacobs’ 78.5 rushing-yard prop is too rich. The veteran back managed only 66 yards on 19 totes (3.5 YPC) in Week 1 and now faces a Washington front that just limited the Giants to 64 rushing yards. With Green Bay likely to sprinkle in A.J. Dillon and potentially play from ahead, Paruk doubts Jacobs sees the efficiency or volume needed to flirt with 80 yards.

Paruk called Over 53.5 receiving yards for Deebo Samuel a strong look. Washington funnels him bubble screens, slants, and jet motion touches that let him pile up yards after the catch. Against a Packers defense that concedes underneath volume to limit deep shots, Paruk expects Samuel’s manufactured opportunities and tackle-breaking ability to push him into the mid-60s.

Paruk leaned Under 1.5 passing touchdowns on Jayden Daniels at –151. Washington attempted only 26 passes in its opener and figures to keep the ball on the ground to protect a shaky line. With Green Bay’s secondary healthy and a disruptive edge rush waiting, Paruk doubts Daniels will see enough red-zone drop-backs to reach two scoring throws.

Calling the TD prop the sharper angle, Paruk grabbed Over 1.5 passing touchdowns for Jordan Love at –118. Love was hyper-efficient in Week 1 and piloted four red-zone drives without a misfire. Paruk trusts Matt LaFleur’s motion-heavy red-zone package—71% TD rate since last season—to generate at least two short-area scores despite Washington’s respectable between-the-20s defense.

Paruk endorsed Over 45.5 rushing yards for Jayden Daniels at –111. Washington builds designed keepers into every script, and Daniels’ athleticism is a safety valve when protection breaks down. Paruk expects Green Bay’s aggressive, up-field rush to open scramble lanes and anticipates 8-10 carries—enough volume for Daniels to clear the mid-40s even without a breakaway run.

Sascha Paruk laid the 3.5 points with Green Bay on TNF. He leaned on a stack of trends—Packers are 10-1 straight up as favorites, 4-1 ATS in their last five at Lambeau, and 9-0 when favored by fewer than seven. Paruk expects the Packers’ front (allowed just 2.1 YPC in Week 1) to stonewall Washington’s run-first attack, forcing Jayden Daniels into obvious passing downs where Rashan Gary and company can hunt. He also cited Jordan Love’s Week 1 efficiency within Matt LaFleur’s matchup-driven scheme and the early move from –3 to –3.5 as market confirmation.