Scott Reichel said his favorite lock is Boston –1.5 at roughly –125. He loves the simple combination of a red-hot Red Sox lineup and the chance to fade Antonio Senzatela plus a Rockies club that continues to flounder on the road. Reichel emphasized that laying the run line lets bettors back the clearly better offense at what he considers a very reasonable price, adding that Senzatela’s track record away from Coors gives Boston multiple paths to a multi-run win.

Scott Reichel took Washington first-five moneyline at +100 and paired it with Under 8.5. He called MacKenzie Gore "objectively more talented" than Matthew Palante and pointed to Gore allowing two or fewer earned in eight of his last ten non-Dodger starts. Palante’s 16.8% K-rate and pitch-to-contact approach could backfire against a Nats lineup that ranks top-10 in contact percentage. Reichel also questioned why St. Louis opened as high as –125 given its .305 wOBA at Busch and a bullpen sitting 23rd in SIERA. With both starters trending toward quality starts and light winds deadening fly balls, he projects a 3-2 Washington lead after five and a 4-3 final, recommending the F5 play down to –105 and the full-game under to 8.

Scott Reichel laid –1.5 runs with Kansas City at +110, trusting Kris Bubic’s 2.36 ERA to stifle a Pirates lineup that has scored two total runs in its last four games. Reichel noted Pittsburgh’s 84 wRC+ versus lefties and Bailey Falter’s recent regression—three or more earned in three of his past four outings with a declining ground-ball rate. The Royals bullpen owns a 3.18 ERA at Kauffman, giving him confidence to cover late, while Kansas City’s offense faces a wind-aided 10-mph jet stream to right field. Reichel projected the final score 5-2 and would play the run line down to –115.

Scott Reichel took Seattle at +125, fading a Yankees club forced to debut 6-foot-6 rookie Drew Schroeder and then turn the game over to a bullpen Reichel labeled “bottom-five in the American League.” He acknowledged Logan Evans’ volatility but trusts the right-hander’s slider to miss bats against a lineup that just lost Anthony Rizzo and continues to lean on replacement-level bats. The Mariners are 26-19 on the road and boast the better defense (5th in Outs Above Average) and a rested back-end trio of Brash, Saucedo and Munoz. Reichel set the game at Yankees –115, creating what he called “an automatic play on Seattle at anything +120 or better.”

Scott Reichel grabbed Baltimore at +130, arguing the Mets remain overpriced after a brief two-game burst against the Yankees. He questioned laying –155 behind Kodai Senga, whose 4.42 road ERA and 11.3% walk rate leave the door open for trouble. Reichel pointed out that Baltimore’s OPS jumps 44 points at Camden Yards and that the Orioles bullpen owns a 3.41 ERA compared to New York’s 4.26 on the road. With Dylan Rockford already showing value to the under, Reichel liked pairing that market lean with a play on the home dog, projecting the O’s no worse than +115.

Reichel also played the Phillies moneyline at –132, calling it a "pretty cheap number" against an 0-6 Verlander. Philadelphia is 29-12 at home and still carries a +72 run differential, while San Francisco owns a .222 road batting average. Verlander’s 15% K-rate is eight points below his career norm, and his four-seam is getting lit up (.567 SLG). Reichel believes the market is still pricing Verlander’s name, not his 2025 production, and thinks Philly should be north of –150.

Reichel jumped on the Brewers at +135, calling the number "offensive." The Dodgers have lost four straight and their bullpen owns a 4.71 ERA over the last month. Tyler Glasnow is making his first start since April 27 after a 60-day IL stint, so a short leash (and that shaky pen) looms. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana has quietly gone 6-3 with a 3.44 ERA and keeps the ball on the ground (51% GB rate) at American Family Field where Milwaukee is 26-12. With better current form and home-field, Reichel thinks Milwaukee should be no worse than +115.

Scott Reichel recommended laying roughly –140 on the Tigers at home against Tampa Bay. He trusts Reese Olson’s 2.89 ERA and 23% strike-out rate while pointing out that Zack Lattell lives in the zone and gives up too much hard contact. The Rays have dropped four of five and their offense has cooled, whereas Detroit is averaging 4.87 runs per game at Comerica during its recent 8-3 stretch. With Olson in better form and the Rays reeling, Reichel thinks the line should be closer to –160 and is comfortable backing Detroit.

Reichel’s dog of the day is Milwaukee at +122. He noted the Dodgers’ recent inconsistency and mediocre 20-21 road record, suggesting the club could be flat after a grinding series in Houston. Freddy Peralta has allowed two runs or fewer in three straight outings and owns a 2.66 ERA at American Family Field, giving the Brewers a legitimate pitching edge over a Los Angeles bullpen game. Milwaukee’s offense has produced just enough at home (4.3 runs per game) to support Peralta, and Reichel trusts a top-five bullpen to protect any late lead. He projects a tight 4-3 Brewers victory and sees value any time Peralta is plus-money in his own ballpark.

Scott Reichel locked in Boston –1.5 at even money, betting that Fenway’s hottest offense keeps rolling against Colorado. The Rockies are an abysmal 11-33 away from Coors with a staggering –231 run differential, and left-hander Austin Gomber enters with a 5.49 ERA. Reichel admitted Boston’s starter (he referred to him simply as ‘Fitz’) rarely works deep and the bullpen can be dicey, but he still trusts a lineup that has plated 27 runs in a three-game sweep of Washington and scored five-plus in five of its last six contests. With Trevor Story swinging a hot bat and Colorado’s defense ranking dead last in fielding percentage, Reichel envisions a 7-3 or 8-4 Red Sox win.

Scott Reichel snapped up Astros –1.5 at +140 behind Hunter Brown, who has not allowed more than two earned runs in seven straight home starts. Cleveland is riding a ten-game losing streak, owns a bottom-five bullpen over the past month, and scores just 3.4 runs per game away from Progressive Field. Reichel added that Tanner Bibee’s road ERA is nearly a full run higher than at home, giving Houston a starting-pitching edge on top of its lineup firepower. He thinks the Guardians could easily get blanked again, projecting a 6-1 type of blowout.

Scott Reichel grabbed Toronto –1.5, trusting Jose Berrios to post one of his ‘good’ outings in his every-other-start pattern. Berrios has fired at least six shut-out innings in four of his last six appearances and now gets a White Sox lineup ranking 29th in OPS against right-handers. Chicago’s starter Sean Burke has been merely serviceable (4.00 ERA) and is backed by a bullpen sitting 26th in WHIP. Reichel likes how hot the Jays bats are after a weekend sweep and sees them winning by multiple runs in a classic 6-2 or 5-1 script.

Scott Reichel advised playing the Rays in the first-five innings Monday. He trusts Shane Baz, who is 8-3 with a 4.33 ERA and has looked "in better form" than Jack Flaherty, while Detroit’s starter has surrendered 21 earned runs over his last four outings. Reichel wants to avoid Tampa’s shaky bullpen that just blew a four-run lead and lost on a walk-off bunt Saturday. Because Detroit will likely open a small home favorite, bettors should get plus money or a cheap price on Tampa early. His takeaway: isolate the pitching edge with Baz before the relievers get involved.

Scott Reichel said he is betting Willy Adames’ home-run prop when the Giants visit Luis Severino and the A’s. Reichel noted Severino has allowed at least one homer in seven consecutive starts and multiple bombs in three of his last five at the Coliseum, a stretch that has ballooned his Oakland ERA to 7.38. Adames is the lone Giant with a career homer off Severino already on the ledger, and he enters Saturday riding a four-game hit streak that includes two doubles and three total extra-base hits. With Severino’s ground-ball rate down nearly seven percentage points since May and the wind projected to be neutral, Reichel expects San Francisco’s right-hand power bats—led by Adames—to take advantage. He is comfortable playing Adames at anything +425 or better and would sprinkle a same-game parlay tying the bomb to a Giants win given Severino’s overall 1.9 HR/9 and 10.4% barrel rate this season.

Scott Reichel made Over 9.5 his lock, projecting a slugfest in Boston-Washington because Walker Buehler looks broken and Mitchell Parker is trending the wrong way. Buehler has failed to complete five innings in three straight outings and has been tagged for 24 earned runs, 10 homers and 14 walks in that span, good for a 2.3 HR/9 road split. Parker has allowed 12 earned over his last two starts and owns a 5.08 ERA since June 1. Reichel noted Boston has scored five-plus runs in three of its last four games (11 or more twice) while Washington’s offense ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate this month. With both bullpens sitting bottom-third in ERA since the All-Star break, he will play any total 10 or lower and expects something like 7-5.

Scott Reichel called Pittsburgh a live dog at +155 and urged listeners to fade Seattle’s -185 price tag because Luis Castillo’s underlying numbers are slipping. Castillo’s strike-out rate has dropped three straight months while his contact percentage has jumped, leading to eight homers allowed across his last five outings. His 3.55 ERA masks a 4.29 xFIP that hints at more regression. Reichel added that rookie right-hander Kyle Burrows has limited opponents to one run or fewer in three of four starts, and even if he only goes four or five frames that is enough to let Pittsburgh control the first-five market. With Seattle’s lineup ranking bottom-10 in wRC+ versus righties since mid-June, Reichel will fire on the Pirates at anything better than +140 and sprinkle a half-unit on the first-five money-line.

Scott Reichel argued that Houston is a must-bet at +125 because Shohei Ohtani’s new role as a two-inning opener leaves the Dodgers leaning on long reliever Nick Nastrini (Kasparius) for bulk innings, while Framber Valdez is in peak form. Valdez rides a 13-inning scoreless streak, is 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his last seven starts, and has surrendered only three homers in the past two months. Reichel noted the public will blindly parlay Los Angeles at any price under –150, but the true matchup favors Houston: the Astros have quietly played above .500 on the road over the last six weeks, and their lineup is set to get healthier as September approaches. With Valdez averaging 7.0 IP per outing and the Ohtani “start” effectively shortening L.A.’s pitching depth, Reichel projected Houston as a –110 favorite and is grabbing any plus money available.

Scott Reichel fired on Over 9 because a 10-mph breeze to straightaway center and Frankie Montas’ recent blow-ups create ideal run-scoring conditions. Montas has surrendered 11 runs in 9 innings over his last two outings and sports a 6.15 xERA that suggests worse days ahead. Although Carlos Rodon’s surface numbers are strong, Reichel noted his strikeout rate has dropped four straight starts, making him more homer-prone in a park where the ball will carry. With both bullpens ranking bottom-10 in ERA since mid-June, Reichel projects a 6-5 type game and will take any total of 9.5 or lower.

Scott Reichel is ready to grab Baltimore at any plus price because Dean Kremer appears to have solved his early-season issues. Over his last three starts Kremer has thrown 17⅔ innings with only two earned runs, leaning more on his splitter to miss bats. Atlanta is still tagged by the market like a 90-win club despite sitting eight games under .500, and Reichel notes the Braves’ mediocre 24-19 home record offers little intimidation. Without Spencer Strider or Max Fried on the mound, he expects Atlanta to be over-valued simply on name recognition. If oddsmakers hang Baltimore anywhere north of +110, Reichel will be on the O’s money-line.

Scott Reichel recommended attacking the Blue Jays’ team-total Over (first five or full game) because Angels rookie Jack Kochanowicz owns a 3-8 record and bloated 5.44 ERA and relies almost entirely on pitch-to-contact stuff. Reichel sees that profile getting torched inside Rogers Centre, where Toronto’s right-hand power bats thrive. He is largely ignoring Max Scherzer’s uneven form and focusing on the matchup he trusts: a highly motivated Toronto lineup versus a hittable debutant who has allowed a .288 opponent AVG and 1.5 HR/9 across Triple-A. Anything at 4.5 or lower on the Jays’ total is an automatic bet for him.

Scott Reichel singled out Brent Rooker’s home-run prop as his favorite dart for Friday’s Bay Bridge matchup. Reichel admitted Justin Verlander is not an extreme gopher-ball pitcher but stressed that the veteran’s stuff no longer misses many bats, giving up plenty of loud contact while still searching for his first win of the season. The Coliseum’s weather is expected to play much warmer than usual, and Rooker brings the A’s most legitimate power bat with a 13.5% barrel rate since June 1. With Verlander’s average fastball velocity down nearly a tick, a fly-ball-leaning profile (38% FB rate) and a Giants bullpen that has already surrendered 14 homers in its last 20 games, Reichel believes Rooker has multiple cracks at taking one deep. He recommended betting Rooker “to hit a HR” at anything +500 or better rather than laying a steep Oakland moneyline, calling it the best way to monetize Verlander’s continued struggles.

Reichel’s dog of the day is Brewers –1.5 at +140. He echoed earlier points about Milwaukee’s offense (.290 and 6.4 runs per game over the last ten) and Freddy Peralta’s 1.98 June ERA. Sandy Alcantara was tagged for 10 hits and 7 ER by Arizona in his last outing and carries an xERA north of 4.50. Reichel acknowledged Miami’s recent scoring surge but trusts Milwaukee’s deeper lineup, superior base-running (a weakness for Alcantara), and bullpen. With non-guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats, he believes the +140 price more than offsets the risk and projects a multi-run Brewers win.

For his lock, Scott Reichel isolated the White Sox first-five moneyline against Antonio Senzatela. Adrian Houser’s 54% ground-ball rate should mitigate the Coors altitude, and Chicago needs only a small lead after five to cash, avoiding its shaky bullpen. Senzatela owns a 6.69 ERA and has surrendered five or more runs in four of seven starts, giving Reichel ‘two clear paths to victory: Houser shoves or Senzatela implodes.’ He expects books to hang something in the –120 range and sees it as the better way to back Chicago than the full-game line.

Scott Reichel wants the Athletics as likely home underdogs against Justin Verlander. The Giants are 0-5 in Verlander’s starts this year and have dropped eight of the last ten he’s appeared in. Verlander’s strikeout rate is down, he allows plenty of contact, and he rarely works deep into games. JP Sears enters off 5⅔ scoreless at Yankee Stadium, and while his home ERA is an ugly 6.68, Reichel believes the market will still over-price Verlander’s name value. With Oakland returning from a 4-5 road trip and facing a San Francisco club stuck in poor form, he projects the A’s closer to +100 than the likely +120/+125 opener and will grab the value early.

Scott Reichel said the safest way to attack the uncertain Dodgers-Astros matchup is to isolate Lance McCullers’ earned-runs line instead of laying a steep –170 without knowing the Dodgers’ starter. Reichel expects the market to hang a juiced 2.5 (or possibly 3.5) and is happy to play the over, noting that oddsmakers clearly anticipate Los Angeles scoring given the price disparity despite an unnamed pitcher. He plans to ‘fade McCullers and pick him to get shelled,’ arguing that any number south of 3 earned runs is worth betting because the Dodgers’ lineup remains dangerous and the ballpark weather does not suppress offense.

Scott Reichel grabbed the White Sox –120, saying any number south of –140 is a gift against Antonio Senzatela. The Rockies right-hander owns a gruesome 6.69 ERA and was tagged for five runs by Milwaukee last time out, his fourth start this year allowing five-plus. Reichel likes Adrian Houser’s profile for Coors Field – the sinkerballer leads the Sox staff with a 54% ground-ball rate and has surrendered only two homers in his last 37 innings. Colorado’s lineup has produced just 3.7 runs per game over its past ten and sits bottom-three in hard-hit percentage. With Houser’s grounders neutralizing the altitude and Chicago’s bullpen in better recent form, Reichel projected the Sox as 60% favorites and will lay the short road price.

Reichel prefers Toronto –1.5 even without a posted moneyline. The Jays are 28-16 at Rogers Centre and tied atop the division, batting .270 across the last ten. Kyle Hendricks owns a 5.44 road ERA and is vulnerable to hard contact; Reichel expects Toronto’s deep lineup to punish him. Angels left-hander Eric Lauer has been solid (2.60 ERA) but faces a surging offense, and the Jays bullpen is in form. Reichel sees multi-run separation and will lay the run line once odds appear.

Scott Reichel grabbed Tampa Bay at ‑105, arguing the wrong team is favored in Minneapolis. Zack Lattell has given up just two total runs over his last two outings, whereas Chris Paddock’s season has fallen apart with 19 earned allowed in his last four. Minnesota is barely over .500 at home but has dropped 10 of its last 14 at Target Field while batting .224 in its last 10. Reichel trusts the Rays lineup, sees the pitching edge clearly on Tampa’s side, and called any plus-money or near-even number on the Rays a bargain.

Scott Reichel said the Yankees are simply too messy to back in the opener of the Subway Series and laid out why he is taking the Mets on the moneyline even before New York names a starter. The Yankees’ bullpen owns a 6.00-plus ERA over the last 10 games, has blown multiple late leads, and the club’s fundamentals are crumbling – Reichel ticked off poor defense, sloppy base-running and an offense that scored just once in Wednesday’s loss despite finally showing life early. Meanwhile the Mets’ staff is just as shaky (team ERA north of six the last 10) but their lineup is hotter, and Mets games have sailed over in seven of 10. Reichel believes the Yankees’ evaporated division lead is no fluke and says the Mets’ superior current form and home field justify backing them regardless of who takes the mound.

Scott Reichel laid the modest ‑120 with Boston, arguing they are rightly favored despite recent offensive lulls. Giolito has surrendered only two earned runs TOTAL over his last four starts and owns a sparkling 2.15 ERA on the road. By contrast, Mike Soroka’s 4.70 ERA and Washington’s 0-4 record in his last four appearances paint a far shakier picture. Reichel added that even with Boston’s lineup scuffling, the Red Sox still boast more pop than a Nationals club ranking bottom-third in hard-hit rate. With bullpen edges and current form leaning Boston’s way, he recommended locking in the cheaper road price before public Yankee-fan money shows up on July 4.

Scott Reichel played Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 1.5 total bases at even money. Reichel noted that the rookie has cleared the number in five of his last eight overall and four of his last six meetings with the Cardinals. The matchup is tailor-made: Miles Mikolas brings a pitch-to-contact profile and has been tagged for a .310 average and .499 slugging on the road over his last three trips. Crow-Armstrong is already 3-for-4 off Mikolas in his young career, and every hit has gone for extra bases (two homers and a double), good for a .750 AVG and 2.250 OPS in the head-to-head. With the Wrigley wind blowing out to left and the game total sitting at 10, Reichel expects at least one gapper or long ball to cash the prop.

Scott Reichel grabbed Matt Olson OVER 0.5 singles at –110. Olson has quietly slapped at least one single in 10 straight games and 17 of his last 20 overall. He owns a .286 average (4-for-14) with multiple singles off veteran righty Charlie Morton, whose pitch-to-contact approach still surfaces despite solid recent form. Reichel likes the plus matchup, the consistency of Olson’s recent spray chart, and the near-even money price to extend the single streak to 11.

Scott Reichel went right back to his favorite fade, Tyler O’Neill UNDER 0.5 hits at –115. O’Neill hasn’t stepped on an MLB field since May 15 and was already hitless in his final five games before landing on the IL. His return assignment is brutal: Spencer Strider, who has given up fewer than six total hits in five straight outings while mixing 100-mph heaters with a wipe-out slider. Reichel expects O’Neill to be late on velocity and off-balance on speed changes after the long layoff, calling it an ideal spot to keep riding the no-hit train.

Scott Reichel backed Milwaukee at +135, calling the Mets wildly overpriced at –160 given current form. He labeled it a \"Jose Quintana revenge game\" and pointed out the lefty is 6-2 with a 3.30 ERA overall while allowing two earned runs or fewer in seven of ten starts. New York counters with David Peterson, whose matching 3.30 ERA is hiding ugly recent results: 10 earned runs across his last two outings and a 45.6 % hard-hit rate since mid-June. The Mets have dropped 14 of 17, rank 27th in OPS during that span, and their bullpen has imploded to a 6.08 ERA in the past week. Reichel added that Milwaukee’s lineup profiles well against Peterson’s four-seam/slider mix, owning a .340 xwOBA against left-handed sliders. With the Brewers riding a three-game winning streak and the Mets lacking both offensive depth and clubhouse \"grit,\" he recommended taking the plus money before the market inevitably shortens.

Scott Reichel said the money-line price on New York (-125) is cheap given the current pitching matchup. Clarke Schmidt strung together three straight scoreless starts before a six-inning, four-run hiccup in Oakland, and Reichel noted his underlying numbers — 27.8 K%, 3.18 xFIP over his last month — are markedly better than Chris Bassitt’s. Bassitt owns a sparkling 2.60 ERA at Rogers Centre but was shelled at Fenway his last time out and has watched his swinging-strike rate dip below 9 %. Reichel expects Schmidt’s strikeout upside to play against a Toronto lineup that ranks 26th in wOBA versus right-handed four-seamers. With the Yankees’ bats scuffling, he projects a tight, low-scoring affair yet still gives New York the edge because Schmidt is in better form and Bassitt’s home splits are masking declining stuff. He called 4-3 Yankees his most likely score and advised taking the Bronx Bombers straight up rather than laying a run line.

Scott Reichel grabbed the Tigers –1.5 at +104, arguing the talent gap is too large for Washington to keep pace. Detroit is in form after thumping Trevor Williams in Game 1 and faces the wildly inconsistent Irvin, who was shelled for nine earned his last time out. Scott liked that Detroit’s lineup is heating up on the road (11 runs Wednesday) while rookie starter Keider Montero flashed strikeout upside against Oakland. With the Nationals unable to pitch (league-worst bullpen ERA), Scott expects Detroit to cover the run line again.

Scott Reichel labeled the Astros –1.5 at roughly –122 a bet-or-pass spot. Colorado is a league-worst 8-33 at Coors, and Kyle Freeland is 1-9 with a 5.56 ERA, creating a massive starting-pitching gap versus Houston rookie Brandon Walter. Although the Astros are sub-.500 on the road, Scott stressed that anything under –150 on the run line is actionable because Houston’s superior lineup faces the worst home team in baseball and a bullpen that ranks bottom-five in ERA.

Reichel tagged the Reds moneyline at roughly +160 as his underdog of the day. He acknowledged Garrett Crochet’s stellar form but argued Boston has no business laying –190 when its offense "cannot hit to save their lives" and its bullpen remains a dumpster fire. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has quietly taken recent series from the Padres and Yankees and is playing with confidence. Reichel believes that if Crochet exits early—something he expects given Crochet’s workload management—the game shifts to a lopsided relief matchup the Reds can steal late. With Boston floundering at the plate and overpriced, he sees solid value backing Cincinnati at plus money.