Sean John Lanfranca bet 'fight doesn’t go to decision' at +140 in Daniel Rodriguez vs Santiago Ponzinibbio, fading the durability of two welterweights on the back nine. Ponzinibbio was nearly knocked out by Carlston Harris before pulling off a miracle choke and has been wobbled in multiple recent bouts. Rodriguez, meanwhile, was finished by Ian Machado Garry and repeatedly rocked by Alex Morono while happily trading in the pocket. Lanfranca expects wild exchanges—the Argentinian keeps swinging even when hurt—and believes one of them lands the kill shot well before the scorecards, estimating the finish probability north of 50% versus the line’s 40% implication.

Sean John Lanfranca laid -110 on Mason Jones to win by decision or submission, lopping the -575 money-line down to something playable. Jones averaged 3.3 takedowns per 15 minutes in his first UFC stint, and Lanfranca expects him to lean on that wrestling against Jeremy Stephens—a 38-year-old who has been submitted in consecutive PFL bouts and tapped to Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC farewell. Stephens has not won an MMA fight that allowed grappling in seven years and has been focusing on bare-knuckle boxing. Lanfranca doubts Stephens has put in serious mat time and anticipates Jones either grinding out 15 minutes or finding a choke once the veteran gases.

Sean John Lanfranca’s favorite prop is Rodriguez-Robertson to end by KO/TKO at +550. He highlighted Gillian Robertson’s improved ground-and-pound—citing her stoppage of Piera Rodriguez—while reminding listeners Marina Rodriguez landed 144 significant strikes on Mackenzie Dern and knocked out Amanda Ribas. Lanfranca believes even two clean minutes on the feet could spell doom for Robertson, whereas sustained top control gives Robertson ample elbow opportunities. He is also sprinkling Rodriguez KO at 10-1 and round-1/2 KO at 15-1, but views the generic fight-ends-by-KO number as the safest angle because he estimates a strike finish occurs over 25 percent of the time, far above the implied 15 percent.

Sean John Lanfranca is bypassing Juliana Miller’s money line and taking her by submission at +700. He argued Miller’s only realistic win condition is a tap anyway, so the 7-to-1 price is far superior to the straight number. Lanfranca thinks Ivana Petrovic overrates her grappling and often shoots unnecessary takedowns even when she is winning the stand-up—exactly the kind of mistake that could drop her into Miller’s aggressive guard. After two years away, Lanfranca is banking on at least incremental improvements from 'Killer Juju,' whose regional record features four armbars. For him the prop captures Miller’s ceiling while minimizing exposure in an otherwise low-level scrap.

Sean John Lanfranca said he is firing on Don'Tale Mayes at +235 despite the heavyweight’s ugly 77-second loss last time out. Lanfranca pointed to Mayes’ eight-inch reach advantage over Thomas Peterson, noting Peterson has already been knocked out once on the regional scene and was jabbed to a decision by Jamal Pogues. He expects Peterson to wrestle early, but believes Mayes is athletic enough to stay upright, pump the jab from long range and land the cleaner, heavier strikes. Because nobody wants to touch Mayes after the quick KO, Lanfranca is waiting to see if the line drifts even higher and will grab anything above +200 in what he views as a true coin-flip matchup.