Sean Koerner bet Javonte Williams under 500.5 rushing yards (Caesars posts 525.5) for 2025. Williams is penciled in as Dallas’ Week 1 starter only because the book offers a line for every nominal RB1; Koerner doubts he holds the job. Miles Sanders and fifth-round rookie Jaden Blue are waiting in the wings, and Koerner believes Blue could pull even on early downs as soon as September. Williams was brutally inefficient in Denver—he logged several 10-plus-carry games under 20 yards and posted three contests with one or fewer rushing yards on 14 carries—despite running behind a top-10 offensive line. The Cowboys’ line is a downgrade, and the club could skew pass-heavy if Micah Parsons’ contract stalemate weakens the defense and forces shootouts. Koerner actually sees Williams’ best path to snaps coming on passing downs, not grinding carries. With a post-ACL track record that suggests replacement-level play and real risk he slides into a committee, Koerner thinks anything above 500 yards is too generous.

Sean Koerner said to bet Cooper Kupp under 700.5 receiving yards at ‑114 on FanDuel. He argued the 32-year-old wideout is falling off fast: Reception Perception charts Kupp in the bottom fifth-percentile versus both man and press coverage, and the Rams were comfortable cutting bait this spring. Seattle is a terrible landing spot for volume—new OC Ryan Grubb kept four tight ends and two fullbacks, signaling heavy 12/22 personnel and a run-first identity built around Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet behind what Koerner believes could be an elite defense. With only two wideouts on most snaps, rookie Tori Horton is already pushing for playing time, so Koerner doubts Kupp will even stay above a 70 % route rate late in the year. Add the age cliff, slot-only usage, and projected low pass rate, and Koerner sees far more downside than upside on a number that still expects the old Kupp to show up.

Koerner flagged Michael Wilson as a preseason faller. Zay Jones has reportedly leap-frogged Wilson on the outside while Greg Dortch owns the slot, forcing Koerner to cut Wilson’s route share in his Week 1 projections. Wilson now profiles as a fringe option only in very deep leagues or DFS punt pools.

Wilson hasn’t played poorly, but Koerner thinks the writing is on the wall after rookie Jackson Dart lit up preseason defenses. Koerner now projects Wilson to lose the starting job ‘sooner rather than later,’ slashing his already thin fantasy appeal. With no rushing upside left in Wilson’s game and a potentially short leash, Koerner advised fantasy managers to avoid Wilson entirely and instead speculate on Dart in super-flex formats.

Koerner dropped Anthony Richardson well down his ranks after the Colts named Daniel Jones the Week-1 starter. Richardson already entered the league with limited college reps and then missed valuable practice time due to injuries. The coaching staff compounded the issue by sitting him in preseason Week-3, signaling they view him as a long-term project rather than an immediate contributor. Koerner compared the situation to Trey Lance and warned redraft managers that Richardson now profiles as a hold-and-hope stash rather than a plug-and-play upside QB.

Koerner had been stashing Guerendo as Christian McCaffrey’s direct backup, but the 49ers’ acquisition of Brian Robinson Jr. pushes Guerendo to third on the depth chart. Given Kyle Shanahan’s history of giving the next man up a full workload, Koerner now views Robinson—not Guerendo—as the back to roster behind McCaffrey. Guerendo is a cut candidate in leagues without deep benches.

Koerner highlighted Matthew Golden as a screaming value who is quietly becoming Green Bay’s primary target. With Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks all nursing injuries, Golden has run with the first-team offense in every two-WR set throughout camp and hauled in a 39-yard deep ball in the third preseason game. FantasyPros ADP has already climbed from WR46 to WR41, yet Koerner expects another leap because rookie first-round receivers drafted outside the top-30 have beaten ADP 66 % of the time the past seven seasons. He projects Golden to open the year as Jordan Love’s most-targeted pass catcher and recommends grabbing him any time he lasts past the 9th round.

Sean Koerner argued that fantasy players are sleeping on Tyler Higbee. He pointed out that Sean McVay was openly disappointed with the depth behind Higbee in 2024, prompting the Rams to draft Terrance Ferguson mainly as an indictment of backups Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen, not of Higbee himself. Koerner reminded listeners that Higbee flashed clear top-five upside late last season and said if the veteran shows a 75 percent routes-run rate in Week 1 he would immediately push into the weekly top-12, if not top-10, at the position. Because Higbee is largely undrafted, Koerner recommends scooping him off waivers or slotting him into low-cost DFS lineups early, then holding if the usage sticks.

Sean Koerner suggested drafting Jonnu Smith as a Week-1 placeholder if you miss every other tight end. Smith finished as the TE5 last season on a Miami squad featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane—proof he can earn volume against stiff competition. Now in Pittsburgh with Aaron Rodgers, Koerner sees only DK Metcalf as clear target competition. Given Metcalf’s efficiency-over-volume style, there’s a non-zero chance Smith actually leads the Steelers in looks. Worst-case, you will know within a week whether he’s sharing snaps with Pat Freiermuth and can pivot quickly.

In the same late-round strategy bucket, Sean Koerner circled rookie Tyler Warren as a near-identical upside bet to Colson Loveland. Warren is also being drafted in the TE10-12 window; Koerner pointed out that rookie tight ends have become immediate fantasy difference-makers and sees Warren’s athleticism and projected route volume giving him a legitimate shot at a top-five finish as soon as 2025.

Koerner said the injury pile-up in San Francisco turns Ricky Pearsall into a screaming value outside the top-30 receivers. Deebo Samuel is gone, Brandon Aiyuk is expected to miss at least the first six games, and Jauan Jennings is battling both an injury and a contract standoff. That leaves the 2024 first-rounder as the presumptive Week-1 target leader. Pearsall’s rookie campaign was derailed when he wasn’t cleared to practice until mid-season, but Koerner noted the 49ers still spent Round-1 capital on him for a reason and are now "rolling into Week 1 expecting Pearsall to be the guy." He recommended drafting Pearsall wherever available as a cheap bet on immediate volume in Kyle Shanahan’s receiver-friendly scheme.

Sean Koerner said Calvin Ridley is still sitting in the wide-receiver-30 range on most draft boards, a price he called flat-out wrong after moving Ridley up to WR23 in his own ranks. Koerner’s optimism hangs on new quarterback Cam Ward, who produced three catches for 50 yards to Ridley on just seven preseason snaps. Ward is +750 to lead the league in interceptions, and Koerner framed that as a feature, not a bug—calling Ward a "big-play hunter" who will force targets to Ridley, then get the ball back quickly after every pick-six. With Will Levis out of the way and no true target competition in Tennessee, Koerner expects a spike in catchable deep balls and labeled Ridley a high-ceiling WR3 who could easily post WR2 numbers if Ward’s YOLO tendencies hold. He advised scooping Ridley wherever he slips past the top-30 receivers.

Sean Koerner said J.K. Dobbins is being slept on in the RB30-35 draft range. Payton wants a classic "Thunder & Lightning" backfield and has already called R.J. Harvey his Alvin Kamara type, leaving Dobbins to soak up the Mark Ingram early-down and goal-line work. Denver completely rebuilt the top of its RB depth chart after ranking 29th in rush EPA last year despite a top-10 offensive line. Koerner noted the preseason helmet mishap—Dobbins was supposed to take the first snap over Harvey—as evidence the staff already sees him as the nominal starter. A healthy Dobbins carries a weekly RB3 floor with true RB2 upside if Harvey misses time, and the cost is still outside the top 30 backs in most season-long drafts.

Sean Koerner flagged Jordan Mason as a screaming value outside the top-30 backs because Minnesota is opening the season in a near 50-50 committee with Aaron Jones and already giving Mason goal-line reps. The former 49er faced eight-man boxes on 33 % of carries last year—highest in the league—yet still ranked third in yards per carry when defenses were honest, evidence he can thrive once Vikings play-action removes stacked fronts. Koerner reminded listeners that Jones landed in Kevin O’Connell’s doghouse twice for fumbles, so Mason could flat-out win the starting job. Even without an injury he profiles as an RB3/FLEX; if Jones misses time Koerner’s upside chart pushes Mason into the RB2 tier.

Sean Koerner highlighted Justin Herbert as a steal in the QB17 range, reminding listeners that the Chargers flipped from the league’s second-lowest to sixth-highest pass rate over expected once Greg Roman loosened the reins after Week 6 last season. Los Angeles fortified the receiver room—rookie deep threats Trey Harris and Keondria Lambert-Smith join returning target monster Keenan Allen—so Herbert no longer has to throw to “a bunch of dudes.” Even in a theoretically run-heavier system the former Oregon star logged 20-plus rushing yards in six of his final 11 games, giving him sneaky floor. Koerner views him as a safe Week 1 starter in 1-QB leagues and near-must in Superflex formats because the real-life talent is top-five while the fantasy market prices him outside the top dozen.

Sean Koerner said Caleb Williams is his favorite late-round quarterback target because the Bears finally fixed every issue that capsized the former No. 1 pick’s first season. Williams still managed a QB15 fantasy finish despite losing both his head coach and offensive coordinator in-season and absorbing 68 sacks, only about 45 % of which were charted as his fault. Chicago invested heavily in the offensive line and replaced the entire offensive brain-trust with Ben Johnson, the architect of Detroit’s high-efficiency attack the last three years. Koerner noted Williams’ first preseason action—a 97-yard touchdown drive—quieted social-media camp concerns and reinforced his dual-threat ceiling. He projects Williams as QB9 yet ADP sits around QB15, giving drafters room for profit plus weekly rushing upside.

Koerner wrapped the draft by nabbing Jackson Hawes (TE78 ADP) because he’s "third on the depth chart for the Bills" and therefore the most likely dart to stumble into a score. If either Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox misses time, Hawes’ snap rate would spike in multi-tight-end red-zone packages. Koerner compared the potential role to Reggie Gilliam, hoping for "a vulture touchdown or two" that would mitigate the risk of finishing 15+ spots below ADP while offering cheap exposure to Buffalo’s high-octane offense.

Koerner admitted he "hates it" but still selected Mitchell Evans at TE50 because the rookie profiles as a specialized red-zone option behind Jatavion Sanders. Tommy Trumbull’s lingering injury could funnel short-yardage snaps to Evans, and Koerner expects "one or two vulture touchdowns" that would easily keep him inside the top 80 tight ends. With most names left on the board unlikely to see any offensive snaps, Koerner prioritized Evans’ combination of a guaranteed roster spot and goal-line usage over theoretical upside.

Sean Koerner labeled Mason Taylor a must-draft flier at TE25. The Jets spent second-round capital on the LSU product who owns a 92nd-percentile agility score and NFL bloodlines (son of Hall-of-Famer Jason Taylor). Koerner emphasized the barren receiver room after Garrett Wilson and noted Breece Hall is headed for a 50-50 timeshare, creating space for Taylor to become Justin Fields’ No. 2 option. New OC Tanner Engstrand imported Detroit’s LaPorta-centric concepts, and Taylor already shook off a high-ankle sprain to dominate joint practices. Koerner projects 80-plus targets, enough for low-end TE1 weeks and smash Best-Ball value.

Sean Koerner called Ray-Ray McCloud one of the biggest steals in the player pool, estimating the veteran is being drafted roughly 30 spots later than his projections (he should be in the low-60s). Even with Darnell Mooney healthy, Koerner projects McCloud for a full-time slot role in Atlanta’s pass-first scheme and reminded listeners of his elite yards-after-catch rate. In leagues that start 5-7 receivers or in best-ball formats, Koerner believes McCloud’s combination of safe targets and occasional spike weeks makes him an auto-draft at the tail end.

Sean Koerner pegs Travis Hunter at WR31 and calls him a classic buy-low before the market adjusts. He cited Liam Cohen’s projection of an 80 percent offensive snap share and noted Hunter ran on 88 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s routes in the first preseason game while sitting out starter reps on defense. Because Hunter was an elite receiver prospect first, Koerner believes the fantasy community is overreacting to his two-way profile and that a top-30 finish in an ascending Jacksonville offense is well within reach.

Sean Koerner is happy to draft Rome Odunze at WR33, calling him an inexpensive way to access a potentially explosive Caleb Williams offense. Odunze was a top-10 draft pick from what Koerner believes is a historically strong receiver class. Keenan Allen’s exit moves him to the Bears’ No. 2 role, and Koerner expects Ben Johnson’s scheme plus Odunze’s collegiate downfield profile to unlock a high-end WR2 ceiling—similar to Nico Collins’ surge—so long as drafters are patient.

Sean Koerner ranks Jameson Williams WR25, two tiers ahead of consensus. Williams finished 20th in fantasy points per game last season after his first healthy NFL off-season, and Koerner expects another leap with Detroit adding both "lay-up" routes and the same deep shots that made him a star. Koerner thinks uncertainty without Ben Johnson actually helps: if the Lions stay efficient Williams cashes big plays, and if they trail more he simply sees extra volume. Either way he views the speedster as the ideal high-ceiling WR3.

Sean Koerner labeled Tory Horton his “deep, deep sleeper.” The fifth-round pick had a pre-injury second-round grade, missed most of his final Colorado State season with a knee issue, and that medical slide is the only reason Seattle landed him. Horton has already popped in camp and turned his first preseason reps into 3-31-1. Koerner emphasized the Seahawks’ depth chart: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is locked in, but 31-year-old Cooper Kupp may be dust, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a pure lid-lifter, and the tight end room is unsettled after Noah Fant’s departure. With Sam Darnold under center, Horton could ascend to the No. 2 target as early as September. His Yahoo ADP just crept to WR 78, yet Koerner still sees stash value in redraft and a priority add in dynasty formats.

Sean Koerner explained why he’s eight spots below ADP on Chris Olave. He currently ranks Olave WR 39 after docking him one game for concussion volatility and now an additional ankle issue. Koerner noted that Olave’s ceiling is unquestioned—he can post WR-2 numbers when healthy—but the floor is shaky: multiple documented concussions, a quarterback room of Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough that looked "rough" in Koerner’s preseason re-watch, and Rashid Shaheed siphoning deep targets. Koerner will consider Olave only if he slides to the WR 35 range where he’d be a bench pick you can stomach losing for several weeks; at the current WR 30 sticker the injury risk is “not baked in at all.”

Sean Koerner said Calvin Ridley is mis-priced in the WR-30 range and is moving him up his board after watching Cam Ward’s first preseason action. Koerner pointed out that Ward peppered Ridley with four straight targets, Ridley hauled in three before both veterans were yanked, and Ward’s ball placement was miles better than last year’s Levis disaster that produced games with nine targets and zero catches. Tennessee’s receiver room looks barren—Metcalf, Van Jefferson, Bryce Oliver and Xavier Restrepo combined for just two catches on 50 preseason routes while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s nine touchdowns walked out the door—so defensive attention or not, the Titans lack a credible No. 2. Koerner compared the setup to Garrett Wilson’s 2023 leap: a true alpha wideout finally paired with competent QB play. With an every-down role, cleaner down-field accuracy and little target competition, Koerner expects Ridley to challenge for a top-20 finish and labeled him a ceiling-heavy buy wherever he’s slipping past WR-30.

Sean Koerner projects Calvin Ridley for about 940 receiving yards—lower than his back-to-back 1,016-plus seasons only because Koerner automatically docks every player two games—but says the Titans’ addition of quarterback Cam Ward gives Ridley "way more upside than people realize." Koerner called last year’s quarterback play an "understatement disaster," noting a game in which Ridley drew 8-9 targets and finished with zero catches because every ball sailed over his head. In early preseason action Ward peppered Ridley with four straight looks, three of which were completed, convincing Koerner that Ridley’s target volume and efficiency could spike well beyond median projections.

Sean Koerner has only docked Rashee Rice one game in his projection (14 played) and says that whenever Rice is active he pushes high-end WR2, sometimes WR1, fantasy numbers thanks to a massive target share in Kansas City. Koerner argues a potential early-season suspension is survivable in season-long leagues because rosters are deepest in Weeks 1-4 and Rice will return at full health. With Rice’s ADP slipping to the WR 25 area, Koerner sees a clear buying opportunity: managers can draft running backs early, stash Rice as a WR1/2, and backfill wideout with depth. He is less enthusiastic in best ball but still willing in large-field tournaments that reward uniqueness.

Sean Koerner projected George Pickens for "a little over four catches a game," an increase from his 3.6-catch career average, and ranked him exactly WR 27 where Yahoo currently lists him. Koerner expects Dallas to throw more than it wants because the running-back room is thin and the defense could regress if Micah Parsons’ health becomes an issue. With CeeDee Lamb occupying defensive attention, Koerner sees Pickens as a pure ceiling play who will supply plenty of spike weeks and is perfectly suited to serve as a third or even fourth wideout on fantasy rosters, especially in best ball formats where week-to-week volatility is rewarded.

Sean Koerner slotted Courtland Sutton at WR24 while Yahoo drafters are letting him fall to WR26, giving drafters a small cushion of value. Koerner expects Sutton to remain Bo Nix’s top target but acknowledges added mouths to feed—Evan Engram at tight end and rookie pass-catching back RJ Harvey. Those additions could shave a point or two off Sutton’s target share, yet Koerner thinks they will also draw coverage away and open deeper sideline routes where Sutton has thrived. He still projects Sutton for steady downfield and end-zone volume and considers him a dependable low-end WR2 in season-long formats.

Sean Koerner said Xavier Worthy is a slight value at his current ADP of WR20 and ranked him WR18 in his own projections. Koerner is baking in a 4-to-6-game suspension range for Rashee Rice and believes Worthy can vault to a mid-range WR1 any weeks Rice is out, because the second-year speedster already flashed that ceiling over the final six regular-season games and into the playoffs. Even with Rice active, Koerner still sees low-end WR2 production thanks to three designed rushing touchdowns last year, Andy Reid’s willingness to scheme him bubble screens, and the fact he’s tied to Patrick Mahomes while Travis Kelce enters an age-related decline phase. Koerner expects Worthy’s price to climb once official discipline for Rice is announced and is scooping him in the WR23-24 pocket whenever he slips.

Sean Koerner labeled Kyle Williams a "good sleeper pick" at the current WR60 price tag. Koerner highlighted that Williams averaged 17-plus yards per reception at Washington State, calling him both an "excellent route runner" and a true big-play threat. The New England depth chart places only Stefon Diggs clearly ahead of him, so Williams may open the year as the third or fourth option but has a realistic path to the No. 2 role once he acclimates to Drake Maye. Koerner added that in the preseason Williams shook a defender on an in-breaker and would have walked in for a touchdown had Josh Dobbs not mis-thrown the ball, evidence that the separation skills translate even when the stat sheet is empty. Because the Patriots will not need to force him targets immediately, Koerner views the floor as safely meeting ADP with upside for a late-season surge if Maye clicks and Diggs commands defensive attention.

Sean Koerner labeled Kyle Williams a sleeper outside WR60. New England spent a third-round pick on him, and he pairs with ascending QB Drake Maye while Stefon Diggs commands defensive attention. Williams earned four preseason targets and was open for a dropped end-zone TD, keeping his ADP suppressed. Koerner expects Williams to start as the third or fourth receiver but sees a plausible path to finishing the year as Maye’s No. 2 option thanks to his polished route running.

Sean Koerner said Pat Bryant is worth scooping at WR74 because Denver’s depth chart behind Cortland Sutton is a mystery after camp. Bryant was a third-round pick and, in Week 1 of the preseason, led all Bronco wideouts in routes, catches, and yards, evidence the staff is fast-tracking him for regular-season snaps. Koerner noted that Marvin Mims has a role locked in, but every other receiver spot is truly open, giving Bryant both a playable floor and ceiling at a dirt-cheap ADP.

Sean Koerner chased Green Bay’s injury-driven opportunity farther down the board with Savion Williams at WR147. Koerner compared the rookie to Cordarrelle Patterson or Wan’Dale Robinson, envisioning manufactured touches—jet sweeps, backfield snaps, screens—that provide a weekly floor even before factoring in additional snaps created by the decimated depth chart. The Packers made Williams a Day-2 pick, and Koerner thinks the team’s escalating injury list could force Williams into action much sooner than expected.

Sean Koerner advised treating the slight ADP slide on Ladd McConkey as a gift. He never moved McConkey in his ranks after the Chargers signed Keenan Allen because the rookie already proved he can win from any alignment and was drafted to soak up the targets vacated by Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. Keenan’s presence may kick McConkey outside more often, but Koerner believes that will simply showcase McConkey’s down-field ability while Allen siphons snaps from depth options like Trey Harris, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Quentin Johnston. Koerner still sees McConkey as the clear No. 1 target in a pass-first offense and called the post-signing discount a classic buy-low window in both season-long and best-ball formats.

Sean Koerner said A.J. Brown is still a screaming value any time he slips outside the top-10 wide receivers. Koerner expects meaningful positive regression in Philadelphia’s pass volume after last year’s extreme shift to the run (Jalen Hurts dropped from 31.6 to 24.1 attempts per game). Fewer Saquon Barkley 70-yard house calls should prevent entire drives from evaporating on the ground. Brown already finished 12th in points per game under those conditions and flashed overall WR1 upside during a six-week rampage in 2023. Koerner also called Brown “QB-proof,” noting that if Hurts misses time, Tanner McKee’s willingness to air it out would actually raise Brown’s weekly projection. All of that makes Brown a high-floor, high-ceiling anchor in season-long and best-ball builds.

Koerner advised scooping Drake London a few spots ahead of his WR9 draft position, noting that London averaged 19.4 half-PPR points (WR2 pace) in the three games Michael Penix Jr. started to close last season and actually finished as the WR1 overall over that stretch. Penix’s greater willingness to push the ball downfield meshes perfectly with London’s win-everywhere skill set, giving him access to both explosive plays and high-percentage middle-of-field targets. London’s schedule is indoors for more than half his games and features several vulnerable pass defenses. Koerner added that a lingering Darnell Mooney shoulder issue could funnel even more targets London’s way, while ancillary pieces like Ray-Ray McCloud and Kyle Pitts are unlikely to threaten true alpha volume. Koerner ranks him squarely inside his personal top seven wideouts and sees WR1-overall ceiling at a late-first/early-second price.

Sean Koerner still clicks on Amon-Ra St. Brown around WR7 but warned fantasy managers to expect fewer spike weeks. He projects the Lions offense for 7.5 fewer points per game after losing OC Ben Johnson and seeing the offensive line downgrade. A wider target tree featuring a healthier Sam LaPorta, a larger Jameson Williams route inventory, and more Gibbs receiving work should siphon some red-zone looks, and Koerner has St. Brown projected for 8–9 TDs after last years 12. The upside is a bankable target share and elite route-winning ability that preserve one of the safest floors in the first two rounds.

Sean Koerner labeled Tyreek Hill the biggest ADP faller, sliding from WR2 last preseason to WR14 now. Koerner said the drop is justified after Hill started to decline in his age-30 campaign and now enters an age-31 season, a cliff that has historically dinged wide-receiver efficiency. While acknowledging Hill could bounce back, Koerner cautioned drafters that they are no longer paying for prime-Tyreek production and should treat him as a volatility play rather than a foundation piece.

Sean Koerner said DK Metcalf is a buy at his current ADP of WR27 because he expects the veteran to see a career-high target share with Aaron Rodgers now in Pittsburgh. Koerner ranks Metcalf WR21 and stressed that the Steelers have no established No. 2 wideout, likely forcing Rodgers to pepper Metcalf even if the offense leans on two-tight-end sets featuring Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth. Although Rodgers ranked just 31st of 44 qualified quarterbacks in catchable throws 15-plus yards downfield last season—a red flag for a receiver who lives on deep targets—Koerner believes the sheer volume created by Rodgers’ tendency to "lock in on his top guy" outweighs the accuracy concern. Drafting Metcalf as a third or even fourth receiver gives managers outsized upside with manageable risk.

Koerner warned that DK Metcalf’s fantasy profile lives on deep shots, yet Aaron Rodgers ranked 31st of 44 QBs in catchable passes 15-plus yards downfield last season, while Geno Smith was 2nd. Even if Metcalf sees a target bump in Pittsburgh’s thin receiver room (George Pickens gone, likely two-TE sets with Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth), Rodgers’ declining deep accuracy introduces a scary floor. Koerner views Metcalf as a volatile bet whose ceiling is now quarterback-dependent.

Sean Koerner has DeVonta Smith at WR30—below Yahoo rank and only slightly ahead of ADP—and will click the button only when the Eagle slides outside the top-30 receivers. Smith faces a low-volume, run-leaning offense competing with A.J. Brown (target alpha) and Dallas Goedert (25% target-per-route) while the coaching staff may alter his slot usage under yet another new coordinator. Koerner still respects Smith’s talent but prefers ceiling swings at that draft turn and labels Smith a value only when he falls.

Sean Koerner said Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the clear smash in the WR 13-18 tier, projecting him all the way up at WR12. Koerner expects the departure of both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to make JSN the unquestioned alpha in Seattle and even floated that he "could push for the league lead in receptions." Koerner dismissed Cooper Kupp’s arrival as a serious target threat and views any ADP outside the top-12 as a steal, arguing managers are getting a volume-driven WR1 at a WR2 price.

Sean Koerner identified Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the clear "value climber" of the WR13-WR18 tier and actually ranks him as his WR-12 overall. Koerner has been high on JSN since draft day and believes the sophomore will operate as a top-three target in Seattle immediately, with an 85-catch, 1,150-yard median projection. Unlike the rest of the tier that carries age, injury or volume concerns, Koerner sees minimal obstacles: Tyler Lockett is entering his age-33 season, and the Seahawks showed by Year-1’s final month that they were comfortable featuring Smith-Njigba in the slot on full-time snaps. With Seattle’s defense in transition, Koerner expects more pass-heavy scripts that can support three fantasy-viable receivers, making JSN a strong draft-day buy at a WR2 price.

Sean Koerner warned that Terry McLaurin carries three separate downside flags: a contract hold-out that could spill into camp, an under-reported foot issue, and inevitable touchdown regression after an outlier 13-TD 2024 campaign (16% TD rate on 82 catches). Koerner has the wideout at WR-19 with only 8-9 projected scores and roughly 1,050 yards, but admits he mentally downgrades him further because missing preseason time at age 30 could sap early-season efficiency. He noted Washington’s passing volume will still be capped by Jayden Daniels’ scrambling tendency, so McLaurin’s ceiling hinges on hogging targets—something that becomes less certain the longer the holdout and rehab drag on. Koerner advised treating McLaurin as a fragile back-end WR2 instead of the sure-thing he looked like last summer.

Sean Koerner advised tempering expectations on Garrett Wilson, projecting him as WR 20 versus an ADP near WR 15-16. Koerner loves Wilson’s talent—he called him a borderline top-five real-life receiver—but highlighted three fantasy red flags: (1) Justin Fields lowers pass volume because every scramble erases a potential target; (2) With virtually no secondary weapons—Breece Hall headed for a committee—defenses can double Wilson more easily; (3) The new Lions-inspired staff will diversify Wilson’s route tree for more high-percentage looks, yet the overall play count of those routes drops in a mobile QB offense. Koerner believes Wilson can beat the projection on talent alone but the math in his model cannot get him above WR 20, making him a pass at current draft cost.

Sean Koerner warned drafters that Davante Adams is overpriced around WR 16. Although Adams still ranked 10th in fantasy points per game last year, Koerner expects the move to the Rams to help Matthew Stafford more than Adams himself. Across from target-hog Puka Nacua, Adams projects as a red-zone package player rather than a volume monster. Stafford’s 2024 health is shaky, and Koerner noted if the veteran quarterback misses time, Adams—not Puka—would see the steeper drop-off because backup QBs struggle to work the boundary. Adams turns 33, the same cliff age that sank Allen Robinson, and Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception data showed a notable decline versus zone coverage—now the NFL’s primary coverage shell. Koerner will not chase an aging WR who needs touchdowns to pay off while competing with a 30-percent-target-share teammate.

Sean Koerner warned that Hill owns the widest range of outcomes in the WR2 tier and should fall outside the top-15 before he considers drafting him. Hill turns 31 this season, firmly entering the post-peak phase for speed receivers, and last year’s wrist issue plus four missed Tua Tagovailoa games slashed his line from 119-1,799-8 to 81-959-5 despite playing an extra contest. Koerner acknowledged a bounce-back ceiling if both players stay healthy but stressed significant downside: Tagovailoa’s concussion history makes more missed games likely, and older speed merchants historically fall off quickly. In season-long drafts he is pricing in that risk by ranking Hill WR15 and will happily pass if the board forces him to decide inside that range.

Sean Koerner said Smith-Njigba should be treated as a high-end WR2 with true WR1 upside. Over the final ten games of 2024 the slot dynamo posted a 24 % targets-per-route rate and 81 receiving yards per game, numbers Koerner believes will hold because both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone and Cooper Kupp will not command heavy volume at this stage. Clint Kubiak’s offense projects to funnel looks underneath to JSN, and with Sam Darnold expected to keep the ball out quickly Koerner forecast a legitimate chance for Smith-Njigba to pace the entire league in receptions. He cautioned that touchdown upside may remain modest, but the weekly floor created by raw target volume makes him worth aggressive season-long drafts at WR12 overall.

Sean Koerner highlighted Tahj Brooks at RB64 as a quick-rising ADP after Cincinnati released Zack Moss. Behind Chase Brown sit only Brooks and veteran Samaje Perine, giving the rookie real paths to touches: a complementary role immediately, or a lead role if Brown misses time. Koerner expects the market to adjust upward soon and thinks Brooks can beat RB64 comfortably, noting the Bengals’ top-10 offensive efficiency and pass-game volume that produce red-zone chances.