Seth Walder bet Hutchinson UNDER 0.5 sacks at +135, noting a disconnect between raw pressures (33, second in NFL) and underlying efficiency: just an 11.5% pressure rate (22nd) and 11.6% pass-rush win rate (33rd, below average). Facing a run-heavy Eagles offense that dropped back only 46% of snaps last week, Walder’s model makes the fair price –104, creating strong value on the plus-money under.

Seth Walder played McBride UNDER 7.5 receptions at ‑145, arguing that Dallas' scheme funnels throws away from the short and intermediate middle where McBride makes his living. The Cowboys sit back in two-high looks that erase crossers and seams, forcing quarterbacks outside the numbers. Walder noted Dallas allows the league’s lowest target rate to that area of the field, making an eight-catch night an uphill climb even in a plus overall matchup for the Cards offense.

Seth Walder grabbed Dak Prescott at 25-1 for MVP after Dallas’ offense shredded Washington to push Prescott to No. 1 in QBR. Walder reminded readers that Prescott finished second in QBR the last full season he played (2023) and now leads less-proven names Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold in the metric. He emphasized the award’s narrative component: Dallas traded away an elite defender, its defense is fragile, and Prescott’s heroics would be the storyline if the Cowboys (28% playoff odds per FPI) reach the postseason. A porous defense also promises plenty of shootouts, giving Prescott a runway for gaudy stats the rest of the way.

Walder projected a double-digit Ravens victory over Kansas City. He argued Detroit’s success last week stemmed from a dominant ground attack, something the Chiefs lack (ranked 28th in rush EPA). Without a credible run threat to slow Roquan Smith’s front, Walder expects Baltimore’s offense (already league-leading 111 points despite a 1-2 record) to separate while its defense plays lighter boxes. The call makes Baltimore –2.5 a strong ATS play and presents value on alternative-spread markets.

Walder predicted the 49ers will record zero sacks on Trevor Lawrence. San Francisco’s pass-rush win rate plummets without Nick Bosa (torn ACL), and coordinator Steve Wilks historically dials up blitzes (31.9% without Bosa) rather than generating natural pressure. Lawrence owns the league’s second-lowest sack rate (2.5%) and is protected by an offensive line allowing just 0.83 pressures per drop-back. A clean pocket boosts Lawrence’s passing-prop overs and solidifies his DFS floor.

Walder called for an 80-plus-yard receiving day from Calvin Ridley. Despite a –82 receiving-yards-over-expectation (third worst in the league), Ridley continues to command volume in Brian Callahan’s offense. Houston’s secondary has allowed nine passing plays of 25-plus yards and grades 24th in coverage EPA. Walder believes the steady targets convert into a ceiling game, recommending Ridley as a DFS tournament play and an over on yardage props.

Walder forecasted that the Browns will hold both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery under 4.0 yards per carry. Cleveland leads the NFL in yards allowed per rush (2.3) and run-stop win rate (38%). With Jim Schwartz’s front dominating first- and second-down gaps, Walder expects Detroit’s ground game to stall, suggesting DFS fades on the Lions’ backfield and possible unders on rushing prop lines.

Walder predicted Philadelphia will post its first positive pass-rate-over-expectation of 2025. Tampa Bay ranks first in EPA allowed vs designed runs, so Nick Sirianni will lean on Jalen Hurts’ arm rather than D’Andre Swift’s legs. A likely uptick in drop-backs (Philadelphia has been –7% PROE through three weeks) boosts stacking appeal for Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in DFS while creating overs on Hurts’ yardage props.

Seth Walder said Vikings linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel is live for a defensive touchdown this week. Van Ginkel already owns a reputation for baiting quarterbacks and jumping horizontal throws, and Walder noted Arthur Smith’s Pittsburgh offense leads the league in screen-pass rate. The Steelers have surrendered 32 explosive plays (20-plus pass yards / 12-plus rush yards) in only three games, and Kenny Pickett’s turnover-worthy-play rate sits at 4.7%. Walder framed the matchup as 'defensive-touchdown paradise' and likes Van Ginkel for pick-six props or a cheap IDP/DFS dart.

Seth Walder forecasted another statement outing from Puka Nacua, projecting 100-plus receiving yards against the Texans. Nacua led the league with 3.7 yards per route run last year, and Cooper Kupp is still ramping up. Houston’s completely rebuilt offensive line ranked 31st in run-block win rate and mediocre in pass rush, giving Matthew Stafford time despite his back flare-up. Walder believes the target funnel plus a modest 43.5-point total put Nacua on the WR1 radar and a priority in mid-tier DFS pricing.

Seth Walder predicted Emeka Egbuka will haul in at least six receptions in his first NFL game. Tampa is down Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan and possibly Cade Otton, forcing Baker Mayfield to funnel targets to the first-round rookie who has drawn rave reviews for mastering every receiver position. Atlanta surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts in 2024 and still struggles to generate pressure, giving Egbuka clean releases against a young secondary. Walder views him as a cheap, high-volume DFS play and a viable Flex in deeper season-long formats.