Shawn Siegele called TreVeyon Henderson the slam-dunk choice in Round 4—even though his current ADP is mid-Round 5—because he sees a realistic path to the rookie finishing top-three among running backs in receptions. Siegele highlighted Henderson’s collegiate resume: 853 career receiving yards, three seasons with at least 125 routes, 94 air yards in 2024 alone, and a 2-yard per-carry edge over Quinshon Judkins despite similar SEC workloads. NextGen labeled him the most athletic back in the class, and Siegele pointed to elite yards-after-contact numbers that belie concerns about Henderson’s tackle-breaking ability. The Patriots desperately need explosiveness, Ramondre Stevenson looks “basically just a guy,” and the offense projects bottom-five in overall skill talent—conditions Siegele believes will funnel touches to the only electric playmaker on the roster. Henderson’s long-speed, pass-game chops, and opportunity to be the “driver of this passing game” make him a priority season-long target at his current price.

Shawn Siegele reiterated that Kenneth Walker is his favorite Round-3 target and would have been a late first-round pick last year had he not battled nagging injuries. Walker produced RB1 weeks in 27% of his 2024 games despite Seattle’s sideways, zone-heavy run concepts that often forced him to dance behind the line. Siegele expects the Seahawks’ new vertical, downhill scheme to emphasize Walker’s acceleration and one-cut ability, turning stalled runs into chunk gains. His peripherals—3.1 yards after contact and a top-10 breakaway-rush rate—already hint at elite efficiency, and Seattle projects for improved scoring chances under the new staff. If Walker stays upright, Siegele sees a legitimate path to 1,500 total yards and double-digit touchdowns, calling him “the answer” among third-round backs.

Shawn Siegele believes drafters are sleeping on rookie Omarion Hampton, who is still going behind Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, and Breece Hall despite a dramatically clearer path to a bell-cow role in Los Angeles. Hampton boasts a 90th-percentile Freak Score, 96th-percentile explosion, and raw production that includes 2,000 yards from scrimmage, 38 receptions, and a 14% boom-run rate in 2023. The Chargers selected him to be "the guy," and Najee Harris’s expected absence all but eliminates veteran competition. Siegele sees Hampton compiling three-down volume behind Justin Herbert and a retooled offensive line that wants to play power football. His comps—Dalvin Cook, Brees Hall, Cam Akers—illustrate the blend of size and breakaway speed. If Hampton lands a few chunk plays, he could pay off as a Round-1-2 turn player next season, making his current third-round ADP a screaming value.

Shawn Siegele said he feels "more comfort and confidence" drafting Chase Brown at the 2.12 turn than any of the similarly priced backs. Brown’s combination of long-speed and friendly Bengals game scripts gives him both a solid weekly floor and the wiggle room to smash ADP if he repeats—or builds on—his 2024 zero-RB breakout. Siegele acknowledged the historical danger of blindly chasing last year’s waiver-wire heroes but noted Brown’s situation differs from typical one-year wonders: Joe Burrow’s offense sustains red-zone visits, Brown is the unquestioned early-down hammer after Joe Mixon’s departure, and his 4.3 yards after contact clip ranks top-five among returning starters. With a workload projection hovering near 270 touches and a proven explosive-play profile, Siegele views Brown as a rare “safe yet still ceiling” play at the Round-2/3 turn.

Shawn Siegele argued that Bucky Irving’s late-Round-2 ADP bakes in almost zero upside. Siegele reminded listeners that Irving’s Week-12 through Week-18 surge—when he actually out-targeted Rachaad White—was fueled by a perfect health stretch the rookie may not repeat. Tampa Bay still plans to involve White as a passing-down option and views Sean Tucker as an explosive pure runner, creating a three-headed attack that robs Irving of the 20-touch ceiling fantasy managers need at his price. Combine that workload uncertainty with an offense featuring Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Brock Bowers that will funnel plenty of plays away from the backfield, and Siegele thinks Irving’s “true” draft slot should be early Round 3, not the 2.10 spot where drafters currently take him. In short, you are paying for last year’s heater and leaving no room for profit.

Shawn Siegele called Jonathan Taylor an "absolute crush pick" in the early second round and said he would rank the Colts star in the late first if veteran quarterback Daniel Jones ends up starting over Anthony Richardson. Siegele reminded listeners that Taylor’s 2021 campaign produced 377 fantasy points and 75 fantasy points over expectation, fueled by 40 receptions for 360 yards and elite breakaway runs. Even during an injury-marred 2024 season, Taylor still ranked near the top of the expected-points leaderboard and averaged 31 PPR points across Weeks 16-18. Siegele believes a healthier Taylor in an offense that throws more to running backs could easily merge top-tier workload with big-play efficiency, making him a better pick than Derrick Henry and one of the few backs with genuine overall RB1 upside.

Shawn Siegele said rookie Ashton Jeanty is a justifiable first-round redraft pick because he projects for true workhorse volume in Las Vegas. Siegele floated a realistic path to 350 carries and 100 targets, predicting Jeanty will finish the season with the highest expected points of any running back. He backed it up with the Boise State star’s outrageous collegiate peripherals: a 33 percent evasion rate, yards-after-contact rising from 4.2 to 4.7, and 3.9 yards per route run—tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for the second-best mark by an RB over the past five years. Siegele noted Brock Bowers will pull defensive attention and the Raiders’ overall offensive environment should be “dramatically better,” giving Jeanty a clear runway to combine elite workload with plus efficiency. If the rookie manages even middling fantasy points over expectation (+2 to +3), Siegele believes he could be the single best pick in 2025 redraft leagues.

Shawn Siegele argued Jalen Royals is custom-built to restore Kansas City’s short-yardage touchdown gimmick that disappeared last season. He reminded listeners that in 2022 the Chiefs produced 12 receiving TDs on passes traveling two yards or fewer—six to Jerick McKinnon, three to Kadarius Toney, three to Mecole Hardman—before that wrinkle was absent in 2023. Royals’ burst and open-field wiggle make him the obvious motion/shovel-pass replacement, and Siegele projects four-to-six red-zone scores on minimal volume. With Rashee Rice likely suspended and Marquise Brown occupying perimeter attention, Royals offers cheap exposure to Patrick Mahomes’ ceiling and creates a unique Week-17 bring-back opposite Denver stacks. Siegele called him a "final-round spike-week cheat code" who can win tournaments without ever commanding a full-time role.

Shawn Siegele urged drafting rookie Jalen Royals in the final two rounds as an asymmetric upside play. Kansas City’s front office has said their internal board had Royals graded a full round higher than where he was selected, and Siegele trusts that eval given the Chiefs’ history of uncovering hidden receiving talent. With Rashee Rice facing a likely early-season suspension and Marquise Brown commanding defensive attention, Royals could be thrust into high-leverage snaps sooner than expected. His vertical skill set mirrors what the Chiefs lacked when injuries piled up last year, and Siegele believes a couple of mid-season 50-yard TDs are well within the rookie’s range. Because Royals often lasts until Round 20 while teammates Brown and Rice cost top-100 picks, Siegele sees him as the clearest way to buy into Patrick Mahomes’ passing ceiling without paying sticker price.

Shawn Siegele pitched Diami Brown as the kind of objectively good, nearly free wideout you grab when caught short on receivers late. Brown entered the league with a plus vertical profile, good athletic testing, and now lands in Liam Cohen’s down-field, play-action heavy scheme that could mimic Rashid Shaheed’s 2023 role. Although he recorded almost nothing in last year’s regular season, Brown flashed in the playoffs, indicating potential chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. Siegele argued Jacksonville’s leap to an elite offense would likely entail Brown becoming the field-stretching complement to rookie starters Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter, delivering 55-yard TDs that actually crack Best Ball lineups. He prefers Brown over low-ceiling target siphons because even a modest 40-50 target season with high aDOT can provide multiple usable spike weeks at a basically undrafted cost.

Shawn Siegele countered that the best way to play Baltimore’s hyper-efficient attack in best ball is to draft the discount—Rashod Bateman. Because Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews both carry top-60 prices, Siegele prefers Bateman two to three rounds later, calling him "the risk-mitigation play that still owns real tournament-winning juice." Bateman’s vertical role produced a 16-yard aDOT and multiple three-catch, 20-plus-point fantasy games last year, proof that he can break a week on minimal volume. In an offense where "everyone scores every time they touch it," Siegele argued you do not need 120 targets; you need the cheapest piece with multi-TD spike potential. If all four Ravens pass catchers finish with disappointing full-season totals, the one who actually beats cost is most likely Bateman, whose price assumes failure. Siegele views him as the ideal WR6/7 on tournament builds that are light at the position early.

Shawn Siegele argued Caleb Williams should be targeted as a second-QB “window” pick because Chicago will throw far more than the market assumes and Williams’ rushing upside remains untapped. Siegele pointed out that the Bears’ new tempo-friendly scheme led by Shane Waldron ranked top-10 in neutral-situation pass rate with Geno Smith and now inherits DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze—arguably the league’s best three-wide set. He believes Williams will scramble less by necessity but add 400-plus rushing yards via designed red-zone boots and RPO keepers, giving him a realistic path to imitate 2023 Jaden Daniels’ weekly 30-point eruptions. With drafters taking Baker Mayfield and Dak Prescott well ahead, Siegele views Williams as the high-ceiling arbitrage play in Rounds 10-11.

Shawn Siegele acknowledged Colston Loveland’s quiet spring and crowded depth chart but still views him as a sneaky upside bet because he believes Chicago is "not going to run the ball at all" and could finish first in pass attempts. If that comes true, Loveland’s elite 37 % targets-per-route rate at Michigan would matter even if his route totals remain modest. Siegele argued that sheer passing volume would offset any playing-time concerns, making the rookie a viable late tight-end target who can pay off in best-ball formats despite health questions and competition for snaps.

Shawn Siegele said Tyler Warren is exactly the kind of late-round tight end who can bury ADP, calling his 7th/8th-round price a gift in FFPC best-ball and main-event leagues. Siegele highlighted Warren’s massive late-career breakout at Penn State—37 % target share plus several direct-snap rushing scores—and noted beat reporters have already seen Indianapolis install red-zone packages that mirror that usage. He expects Shane Steichen to feature the rookie on jet-motion and wildcat looks, giving Warren legitimate rushing-TD equity alongside a consolidated pass tree that currently revolves only around Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. Siegele believes that combo puts a Kyle Pitts- or Sam LaPorta-level rookie season squarely in Warren’s range of outcomes and makes him one of the few tight ends capable of beating ADP by “multiple rounds” and swinging overall tournament payouts.

Shawn Siegele advised grabbing Dillon Gabriel in the final rounds of superflex best ball drafts. Browns coaches reportedly believe Gabriel is already processing and throwing more accurately than expected and that he has widened his lead over fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders during offseason work. Siegele anticipates Cleveland chasing a top-five pick, meaning the front office will eventually pull the plug on Deshaun Watson and hand the offense to Gabriel. Even if the rookie is merely "okay," those presumed late-season starts deliver scarce quarterback points in Weeks 14-17 when best ball tournaments are decided, and they come at virtually zero acquisition cost.

Shawn Siegele said if Amon-Ra St. Brown somehow misses the target title, the next most likely candidate is Drake London. Ben Gretch’s spreadsheet supports that stance, slotting London at 159 targets—fifth-highest in the league and easily tops among Falcons given the vacuum behind him. Siegele emphasized that an Arthur Smith-less offense plus likely QB upgrade dramatically raise London’s floor, while a 30 % share remains in play because Atlanta’s pass-catcher depth is razor thin after Kyle Pitts. In Best Ball drafts London offers target-hog volume at a discounted mid-round price and carries legitimate league-leading upside if the Falcons’ passing rate climbs even modestly.

Shawn Siegele pushed Amon-Ra St. Brown as the odds-on favorite to top the league in targets, ranking him as high as 1.03 overall. Siegele argued nobody else can "even really get that close" unless St. Brown’s chronic toe flares up, and pointed out the wideout has already produced WR1 numbers while managing that injury. Ben Gretch’s freshly-finished projections back this up, giving St. Brown a 30 % share—the highest of any player—and still leaving 20 % for the next Lion because Detroit has no other proven target earners. Combining elite earning ability with a pass-centric Lions scheme keeps St. Brown’s floor sky-high and his ceiling league-leading for Best Ball.

Shawn Siegele advised against burning a 20th-round pick on Dylan Gabriel in standard single-QB best-ball formats, saying the Browns rookie is “a much, much better pick in Superflex.” Siegele acknowledged Cleveland loves Gabriel’s accuracy and processing and could give him a second-half audition over Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett, but he emphasized that timeline is too late to matter in traditional leagues with only one quarterback slot. Instead, he recommends using late roster spots on higher-probability flyers at running back or wide receiver. In Superflex, however, Gabriel’s plausible late-season start carries genuine tournament-winning upside, making him worth the stab there even though he remains a fade in normal FFPC builds.

Shawn Siegele urged drafters to pounce on Trevor Etienne at the 18–19 turn, calling him “dramatically undervalued” because he is still going completely undrafted in FFPC best-ball rooms. Siegele likes Etienne even more on Panthers-heavy builds that already include Bryce Young, Tez McMillan and JaTavion Sanders, reasoning that Carolina’s expected offensive leap would hand the rookie immediate high-value touches if the backfield shakes out. He compared Etienne’s three-down profile favorably to fallback options such as Sean Tucker, Isaiah Davis and Ollie Gordon, insisting none of them blend receiving chops with big-play juice the way Etienne does. For a pick that costs nothing, Siegele sees genuine league-winning upside and late-season leverage if the Panthers surprise.

Shawn Siegele recommended stashing Jalen Royals in the final rounds as cheap insurance against a potential Rashee Rice suspension. While he made clear Royals will not fully replace Rice, Siegele noted that even part-time work in Patrick Mahomes’ offense could create touchdown-driven flex weeks, especially with injury-prone veterans like Hollywood Brown also on the depth chart. Royals is “basically free,” yet owns enough vertical juice to carve out snaps that matter more in best ball than managed formats. The payoff profile, Siegele said, is similar to last year’s late-season Marvin Mims or Pat Bryant: low probability but high payout if the depth chart breaks his way.

Shawn Siegele called rookie Colston Loveland the swing-for-the-fences piece that can turn a good best-ball roster into a great one. Pairing Loveland with Kmet, he argued, produces a much higher ceiling than the safer but lower-upside Pittsburgh duo because Ben Johnson is creative enough to keep two tight ends fantasy-relevant. Chicago lacks a proven third receiving option, and Loveland’s collegiate seam-stretching profile dovetails with Johnson’s tendency to attack the middle of the field. Siegele said he prefers a Loveland + Breschard Smith draft path over a Tyjae Spears + Kmet path when he’s hunting for first-place equity because Loveland’s range of outcomes includes an Aaron Hernandez–style rookie splash in a TE-friendly scheme.

Shawn Siegele advised sprinkling Cole Kmet onto best-ball builds because new OC Ben Johnson has a history of feeding tight ends and Chicago is well-positioned to lean on heavy 12 personnel. Siegele reminded listeners that Kmet flirted with "borderline star status" two seasons ago, and he expects Johnson to pepper him with volume given the question marks behind DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden. He compared the potential Kmet/Colston Loveland pairing to the old Rob Gronkowski–Aaron Hernandez tandem, stressing that Chicago is the one team most likely to make two TEs simultaneously fantasy-relevant in 2025. That sets up Kmet as a sturdy floor play whose ceiling jumps into the top-five conversation if Johnson imports his Detroit red-zone concepts.

Shawn Siegele said Bryce Young is “this year’s Baker Mayfield,” meaning the market is sleeping on a cheap, post-hype QB who can out-produce his early-13th-round ADP. Siegele likes using Young as the second passer on Kyler-led best-ball builds because the price lets drafters hammer premium positions elsewhere while still landing a quarterback with proven college accuracy, a 2.3% turnover-worthy-play rate as a rookie, and an incoming volume bump under Dave Canales. He also noted Young stacks naturally with WR Tez McMillan if you grabbed him earlier. The overall takeaway: be willing to reach at the 12-13 turn before the room catches up.

Shawn Siegele called Isaiah Likely a worthwhile long-shot in the late rounds because the Ravens occasionally build game plans that feature him over Mark Andrews, citing Baltimore’s Week-1 approach against Kansas City last season as an example. Even if Likely’s season-long catch total ends up modest, those tactically focused weeks could produce bunched receptions and big fantasy scores that matter more in best ball than in managed leagues. Siegele views Likely as the kind of cheap tight end whose spiked-week profile can patch holes on teams that punt the position early while still offering legitimate breakout potential if Andrews ever misses time.

Shawn Siegele said Zach Charbonnet is one of the most difficult names to leave off his Zero-RB countdown because the sophomore back instantly becomes a potential league-winner if Kenneth Walker goes down. Walker is a "superstar" who should dominate touches in Seattle, but that dominance also means Charbonnet would inherit a full bell-cow workload in a run-centric offense should an injury strike. Siegele added that taking Charbonnet gives drafters the flexibility to load up on Walker elsewhere, knowing they are balanced with his direct contingency option. In FFPC best-ball formats, he views Charbonnet’s Round-10 price as a cheap pathway to 20-touch upside and late-season tournament leverage.

Shawn Siegele wants no part of Jonnu Smith at his current ADP after the move to Pittsburgh. He agreed with Ben Gretch that Pat Friermuth is the clear favorite to lead Steelers tight ends in scoring, leaving Smith in a gadget-player role similar to what Arthur Smith envisioned in Atlanta. Siegele worries that Mike Tomlin’s staff will treat Jonnu as a "chess piece" rather than a volume receiver, meaning fantasy points will be inconsistent and touchdown-dependent. Given that profile and the presence of Friermuth, Smith offers little ceiling relative to the receivers and backs available in the same draft range, so Siegele is passing on him in best-ball formats.

Shawn Siegele said Jordan Mason is a headline Zero-RB target because his per-touch efficiency should translate perfectly to Minnesota. The Vikings faced the eighth-highest rate of light boxes (seven or fewer defenders) last season, and Siegele expects Mason to feast in that environment. Despite limited opportunities from 2021-23, Mason owns the fourth-best yards-per-carry in the league over that span and has never dipped below 5.0 YPC in any season. Siegele believes a healthy Mason could seize the lead role or, at worst, deliver spike weeks as part of a committee, making his current ADP a bargain in FFPC best-ball rooms.

Shawn Siegele explained that a slight reach on Rome Odunze at the 6/7 turn makes sense because Luther Burden—his preferred late-round complement—remains dirt cheap in Round 13. Siegele likened the strategy to last year’s successful DJ Moore/Darnell Mooney pairing: lock in the higher-volume alpha early and buy the cheaper explosive teammate later for correlation plus injury insulation. Odunze already owns a 34 percent college dominator rating and won every contested-catch drill at the Senior Bowl, traits Siegele believes translate quickly to NFL red-zone work. By tying Odunze to Burden at a combined WR-33 and WR-55 price, drafters effectively "buy two cracks" at a rookie-year breakout without sacrificing premium draft capital at other positions.

Shawn Siegele urged drafters to bypass Jordan Addison at his current Round-6/7 price because the looming league suspension turns that slot into a landmine. Addison is still going inside the top-80 despite multiple reports suggesting the NFL could rule before Week 1. Siegele noted that passing on Addison at ADP is painless: the Vikings wideout regularly slips several rounds in other draft rooms and there are plenty of similarly profiled rookies—such as Rome Odunze or Jerry Jeudy’s new teammate Luther Burden—available later. Given the opportunity cost of the RB and TE "sweet spot" in that same pocket of the draft, Siegele is simply banking those picks elsewhere and scooping any discounted Addison shares only if he falls two rounds beyond ADP.

Shawn Siegele called DeVonta Smith one of the simplest clicks in FFPC best-ball rooms, claiming the market still discounts his true ceiling. Smith routinely falls to the 4/5 turn even though he owns week-winning spike ability and provides bye-week diversity for drafters stacking elite wideouts. Siegele argued that concerns about Jalen Hurts’ passing volume are already over-penalized, while an injury to new teammate Saquon Barkley would force Philadelphia to lean harder on its receivers, further boosting Smith’s target share. Because he is drafted well behind the first-round receiver tier but carries similar efficiency in a proven offense, Siegele says Smith is a “free win” when available after pick 45.

Shawn Siegele cautioned that Derrick Henry’s Baltimore landing spot is already baked into his ADP, leaving little profit potential. Henry managed only 13.9 expected fantasy points per game last year and still offers virtually no PPR boost, so every projection assumes he continues ripping off 40- to 60-yard touchdowns at age 30. Siegele contrasted that with Jonathan Taylor’s 16.9 EP and receiving upside, arguing that Henry must keep producing highlight-reel runs just to hold serve, whereas Taylor has a workload buffer. Given Henry’s reliance on big plays and the likelihood that Lamar Jackson siphons goal-line carries, Siegele believes Henry is being drafted at his ceiling and prefers other options in the same range.

Shawn Siegele said Jonathan Taylor is the one Round-2 pick who can blow up leagues this summer. Taylor finished third in expected fantasy points (16.9 EP) last year despite a completely broken Colts offense and only 3.1 of those points coming through the air. Siegele expects that receiving number to climb if Daniel Jones ends up under center, creating a bigger weekly floor in FFPC best-ball scoring. He reminded listeners that Taylor averaged 4.4 fantasy points over expectation during his 2,000-yard 2021 eruption and still flashes the same long-run explosiveness that puts him in the Saquon Barkley tier for 60-yard house calls. With a built-in workload buffer over Derrick Henry (Henry sat at just 13.9 EP), Taylor owns both volume security and home-run upside and is Siegele’s favorite bet to become this year’s Round-2 league winner.

Shawn Siegele said Tyreek Hill is an automatic click when he drifts to the late-second because the Dolphins star still possesses top-five overall upside. Hill finished like an early-first-rounder in both 2022 and 2023 and, per Siegele’s research, is more involved near the goal line than most realize, giving him bonus short-TD equity to pair with his trademark long scores. With Jonnu Smith no longer siphoning red-zone looks and Mike McDaniel’s scheme continuing to manufacture deep shots, Siegele expects Hill to rack up both long and short touchdowns. Any time Hill lasts past pick 20 he is a value in FFPC best-ball rooms.

Shawn Siegele argued Jonathan Taylor is a screaming value at the 2/3 turn and should be drafted ahead of Derrick Henry. Taylor ranked second among all running backs in expected fantasy points last season while operating in a dysfunctional Colts offense and is only three years removed from his 2,000-plus yard, 20-TD 2021 explosion. Siegele likened Taylor's current discount to the one Saquon Barkley enjoyed before his 2023 resurgence, stressing Taylor's elite big-play ability, a more favorable offensive environment, and the likelihood of added receiving work. He believes Taylor is being discounted by at least half a round and offers league-winning spike-week upside in best ball.

Shawn Siegele said drafters should gladly lock in Ja'Marr Chase at the very top of FFPC best-ball boards because he supplies a massive weekly and seasonal edge. Chase just delivered a 400-point campaign and is the only player with that ceiling who never lasts past the first three picks. Even though Siegele personally ranks rookie tight end Brock Bowers first in TE-premium formats, he still takes Chase at 1.01 because Bowers can be obtained later while Chase rarely slides. Beginning your roster with a proven 400-point wideout frees you to attack softer portions of the draft without sacrificing upside.

Shawn Siegele called Luther Burden a no-brainer dart throw at his current double-digit ADP. Burden’s minicamp absence and pre-draft work-ethic whispers have pushed him multiple rounds past the point where wide receivers with real ceiling potential usually disappear, making him one of the few lottery tickets left after the so-called WR window closes. Siegele acknowledged that the rookie could deliver a complete zero— he explicitly framed it as a "very legitimate chance"—but argued the asymmetry is too good to ignore: if Burden returns healthy and starts stealing snaps from DJ Moore or Rome Odunze, the payoff dwarfs the cost. He compared the scenario to last summer’s Jordan Addison and Jameson Williams discounts that unlocked RB-heavy constructions which later crushed. For both Season-Long and Best-Ball builds that need late upside, Burden is his preferred target even for managers who remain skeptical of the profile.

Shawn Siegele warned drafters that Rome Odunze’s Round-5 price carries far more downside than the market appreciates. Early-round rookie receivers usually get schemed targets simply because of the draft capital, but Siegele noted that when that manufactured volume fails to translate into production it becomes an even bigger red flag than for later picks. He believes Odunze could quickly be squeezed if Luther Burden commands significant usage – a scenario he thinks is not baked into current projections – while DJ Moore still owns the alpha role. Add in an uncertain Caleb Williams learning curve, two tight ends (Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet) vying for middle-of-the-field looks, and a run-leaning Ben Johnson scheme, and Odunze suddenly needs multiple things to break perfectly just to be startable. Siegele urged fantasy managers in Season-Long and Best-Ball formats to treat Odunze as a volatile swing rather than a core piece and to have a contingency plan if they click his name.

Shawn Siegele argued that if you want exposure to Tampa Bay’s scoring upside, rookie Emeka Egbuka is the pragmatic play over pricey vets Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. ADP discounts the first-round pick into the double-digit rounds despite a vacated-targets environment created by Liam Cohen’s WR-friendly scheme—now adopted by hold-over staff—and the likelihood Evans or Godwin miss games. Siegele noted that drafters overweight camp buzz on Evans while ignoring equally positive reports on Egbuka’s inside-outside versatility and rapport with Baker Mayfield. At a fraction of the cost, Egbuka only needs a 15 % target share or a few spike-weeks to pay off, giving drafters asymmetric upside without betting on a repeat of Mayfield’s unsustainable TD efficiency.

Shawn Siegele said the wide-receiver bucket currently priced between WR14 (Garrett Wilson) and WR22 (DJ Moore) is almost entirely undraftable when run through a basic RotoViz Screener projection. Median and ceiling outcomes in that range simply do not justify third-round capital, wiping out the structural edge of receiver-heavy or Zero-RB builds. The lone exception he’s willing to click is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose Year-2 breakout profile still offers a realistic path to a sizable target-share jump and difference-making upside. If your draft lands in this dead zone, Siegele advises either pulling preferred players forward from later rounds or selecting Smith-Njigba, rather than wasting the pick on a receiver whose projection cannot move the needle.

Shawn Siegele cautioned drafters against robotically smashing Trey Benson just because he is the young, explosive understudy to James Conner. Yes, Conner’s age-29 season, mileage and perpetual injury tag create a real risk he "falls off a cliff any given Sunday," but Siegele stressed that Conner is still the better real-life back right now and remains priced cheaply himself. Benson’s collegiate coaching staffs, and now the Cardinals, have shown lukewarm enthusiasm for actually giving him volume, which Siegele views as a glaring red flag when drafters start chasing him into the single-digit rounds. The only edge with Benson is a small ADP gap; once that closes, you are paying for a best-case scenario that may never come. Siegele said he will sprinkle Benson only when the price slips multiple rounds—never as a core pick—preferring instead to grab upside veterans elsewhere or simply take Conner at cost.

Shawn Siegele called Christian Kirk "the worst pick in all of fantasy" at his current mid-round price. Siegele’s research shows wideouts coming off a true collapse season almost never bounce back to prior form, and Kirk’s statistical profile—age-29 season, cratered yards-per-route, and declining target-per-route rate—matches those historic flame-outs. Even beat-writer hype about him becoming a "PPR machine" in Houston does little to sway Siegele because the Texans’ front office has a track record of making head-scratching depth-chart decisions. He warned that if rookie Jaden Higgins seizes the WR2 job—as many league insiders expect—Kirk is boxed into low-leverage slot routes on a run-first offense. With upside receivers like Brandon Aiyuk and Luther Burden still available in the same range, Siegele advised passing on Kirk in both best ball and season-long drafts until his ADP free-falls at least two rounds.

Siegele labeled Tony Pollard a complete hands-off in Round 7. Pollard’s 12% missed-tackle rate ranked near the bottom for starters, and his -1.0 fantasy points over expected showed no big-play juice to offset a capped workload. Tennessee’s plan to rotate bigger backs at the goal line and slot Tyjae Spears in on passing downs leaves Pollard fighting for low-value early carries in an offense expected to trail often. Add in last year’s ankle mileage and a 4.2 YPC that looks even worse once you factor in light-box rate, and Siegele sees almost no path to league-winning production. He concedes Pollard could pay off in a narrow scenario where everything breaks perfectly, but with wideouts like Keon Coleman and breakout-tight-end shots still on the board, the opportunity cost is devastating. Unless Pollard slides multiple rounds, Siegele is out in both best ball and season-long formats.

Siegele prefers Tyjae Spears at his early-10th-round cost over new teammate Tony Pollard. Spears doubled Pollard’s evasion rate last year (roughly 24% to 12%), posted +1.2 fantasy points over expected per game despite a bad Titans offense, and flashed his ceiling with 27- and 22-point eruptions in Weeks 15-16. Meanwhile Pollard managed 4.2 YPC and negative fantasy efficiency, numbers Siegele views as unacceptable for a supposedly explosive back the team will still want to cap at ~225 touches. Spears also graded miles better as a receiver, foreshadowing a larger share of Tennessee’s high-value touches. Siegele acknowledged medical concerns around Spears’ knee but argued the Titans telegraphed usage by signing 250-pound plodders for goal-line work—limiting Pollard while leaving high-leverage passing downs to Spears. At three rounds cheaper, Spears offers the same—or higher—weekly upside with far less opportunity cost.

Siegele could not understand why drafters are still paying up for Tank Bigsby. The only positive peripherals on Bigsby’s rookie resume came almost entirely from one early-season game; once Travis Etienne returned from his injury spell, Bigsby was actually worse than Etienne’s own shaky efficiency. Siegele highlighted that Bigsby offered nothing in the passing game, posted sub-4.0 yards per carry over that stretch, and routinely graded below replacement in missed-tackle rate. With Jacksonville hinting that Etienne may shift toward a receiving-heavy role and rookie Bhayshul Tuten bringing far more dynamism, Bigsby is squeezed from both sides. In Siegele’s view, drafters are ignoring a multi-path downside—Bigsby could lose short-yardage to Tuten and target share to Etienne—while paying a Round-11 price that assumes he owns the dirty work. He labeled Bigsby a clear fade in both best ball and redraft unless the price craters.

Siegele urged drafters to keep hammering rookie Bhayshul Tuten as Jacksonville’s lottery ticket. Front-office voices were hyping Tuten before the draft, and his pro-day explosion translated to elite college peripherals: break-away rate, yards after contact and receiving efficiency all popped. While buzz has pushed Travis Etienne up boards as a possible "passing-down specialist," Siegele thinks that same role caps Etienne’s ceiling and leaves early-down and goal-line chances wide-open for Tuten. Tank Bigsby’s price still baffles Siegele—his only decent peripherals came in one early-season game before completely face-planting once Etienne returned from injury. If Tuten converts even half of Jacksonville’s ambiguous green-zone work, he has a realistic path to next year’s Round-2 ADP like we saw with Breece Hall and Jahmyr Gibbs. The risk is real, but the payoff dwarfs the cost at his current Round-12 tag in both best ball and managed leagues.

Shawn Siegele urged drafters to pass on Aaron Jones at his Round-6 price, explaining that Jones simply did not do enough in advantageous looks last year. When facing light boxes he posted middling yards after contact and explosive-run rates, a red flag in Kevin O’Connell’s spread-out offense that should see plenty of those fronts again. Siegele acknowledged Jones will catch passes, but argued the ceiling is capped because Jordan Mason — younger, healthier, and far more dynamic on a per-touch basis — is likely to siphon early-down work. If the roles crystallize, Jones ends up the high-priced committee back while Mason is two rounds cheaper. Given that risk/reward profile, Siegele labeled Jones a clear fade in both best-ball and season-long formats.

Shawn Siegele said Jaylen Warren is the side to take over rookie Caleb Johnson even though Johnson goes two rounds earlier (mid-6th vs early-8th). Siegele noted Warren’s elite peripherals: a multi-year track record as one of the NFL’s most evasive runners, plus a proven 3-down receiving profile that Pittsburgh already trusts. With Arthur Smith expected to pound the rock, Siegele expects enough volume for two usable backs but sees more upside in the cheaper, already-productive veteran. At equal talent you pay the discount, and Warren costs roughly 20 picks less while owning the clearer passing-down role.

Shawn Siegele doubled-down on his Jaydon Blue love, calling the rookie a legitimate threat to crack the top-five in running-back receptions this season. Siegele acknowledged Blue’s red flags—poor yards-before-contact metrics at Texas, a history of drive-killing fumbles and question-marks about why the Longhorns never featured him—but argued none of Dallas’s other backs are NFL-caliber. The Cowboys front office made it clear the backfield only works if Blue is real, so early receiving work is basically baked in. Siegele pointed out that even with Blue’s tiny frame, his yards-after-contact numbers were elite for a “tiny little dude,” suggesting tackle-breaking juice once he actually gets into space. Combine that with elite sub-4.4 speed and the realistic possibility of 70+ targets in a Dak-Prescott offense that just lost goal-line hammer Ezekiel Elliott, and Blue only needs modest rushing volume to smash his Round-10 ADP. Siegele likes him in best ball for spike-week speed but emphasized he’s startable in PPR redraft the moment the receiving role materializes.

Discussing the Cowboys backfield, Shawn Siegele called Jaydon Blue the play over Javonte Williams at their current RB45 range. Blue may be the fastest back in the entire 2024 rookie class and therefore offers week-winning splash-play upside that Williams simply cannot match after two injury-marred seasons. Siegele noted that best-ball drafters are already capturing this ceiling, but believes Blue is still undervalued in redraft because the market is overweighting Williams’ theoretical early-season volume. Given Dallas’ explosive offense and Mike McCarthy’s history of leaning on whichever runner proves most efficient, Siegele expects Blue to carve out a sizeable role by mid-season and provide far more useful spike weeks down the stretch. He advised scooping Blue now before preseason highlights narrow the ADP gap.