Sia Nejad anchored his early betting card with Cam Young at 30-1, adding Sam Burns and Harris English as secondary bullets. Nejad likes Young’s elite driver and overall tee-to-green profile—a perfect fit given that seven of last year’s top eight finishers at East Lake were also top-eight tee-to-green. With the TOUR likely to set the course up for birdies to boost drama, Nejad wants an explosive scorer and feels the 30-1 price is longer than it should be in a no-cut, 30-man field. He called the number “my card” on the spot, signalling conviction in Young’s ceiling.

Sia Nejad spotlighted Brenton Strange as a last-round tight-end target. Strange flashed in 2024 with lines of 5-59 against Green Bay, 11-73 versus the Jets, and 4-60 in the Indianapolis finale—production that mostly came with backup Mac Jones at quarterback. Now he steps into an offense where Trevor Lawrence targets tight ends on 24.5 % of throws, the fourth-highest rate among quarterbacks over the past three seasons. Nejad does not view Strange as Evan Engram-level talent but believes the role alone gives Strange streaming value and makes him a strong TE2 if you fade the position early.

Sia Nejad urged drafters to scoop up Rashod Bateman at his WR59 average draft position. Bateman is coming off a career-best WR40 finish and just earned a contract extension, confirming Baltimore views him as its second wideout. Nejad acknowledged some touchdown regression is likely but argued the Ravens remain a high-scoring attack with Lamar Jackson, two quality tight ends, and an elite run game creating red-zone chances. Even a slight statistical dip would still allow Bateman to beat his current cost, giving managers a steady floor option in the WR55–65 range with modest upside.

For managers drafting Saquon Barkley, Sia Nejad advised grabbing Will Shipley late as direct insurance. Barkley handled a massive workload and does carry an injury history, and Nejad doubts AJ Dillon—who looked sluggish in Green Bay—fits new OC Kellen Moore’s offense. Shipley knows the system and would slide into one of the league’s premier offensive environments if Barkley were sidelined. Nejad views Shipley as a must-draft in deeper leagues and a high-end contingency play in shallower formats.

Sia Nejad expects Joe Mixon to miss some time and flagged Woody Marks as the Texans back who could capitalize. Marks logged a staggering 261 college receptions over five seasons, giving him a clear passing-game edge over committee mates like Dameon Pierce and Dari Ogunbowale. Mixon already ranks second among active players in career touches and is entering 2024 with an injury, so Nejad doubts the veteran suddenly stays healthy. Marks may begin in a committee but has the skill set to carve out PPR relevance and is essentially free in dynasty or 20-round redraft formats.

Sia Nejad noted that almost nobody is talking about Rico Dowdle after his move to Carolina, yet he profiles as the direct backup to Chuba Hubbard. Dowdle nearly hit 1,100 rushing yards last season and can catch passes, giving him three-down potential if Hubbard misses time. The Panthers have little else behind them—fourth-round rookie Trevor Etienne is a pass-catcher and Jonathan Brooks is out for the year. With a 14th- or 15th-round ADP, Dowdle is cheaper than flashier handcuff names like Trey Benson or Tyler Allgeier but could provide weekly RB2 numbers in an injury scenario.

Sia Nejad recommended scooping up Anthony Richardson at his QB26 price because the Colts are giving him first crack at the preseason opener, signaling a real opportunity to seize the job. Nejad thinks the organization “owes it to themselves” to see if Richardson is the answer, noting the sizable draft investment. Even in last year’s injury-marred, inconsistent season, Richardson produced four 20-plus-point fantasy games and finished as a top-10 QB three times, twice inside the top-five, entirely on rushing upside. If he strings together strong starts he could hold the job, giving managers league-winning legs for the cost of a final pick; if he busts you can replace him with a waiver-wire veteran like Matthew Stafford or Geno Smith.

Sia Nejad revealed he already bet Saints under 4.5 wins at +125 on The Early Edge and doubled down here. He thinks New Orleans will enter the soft part of its schedule with only one or two victories, at which point the franchise shifts into "experimental mode" to secure a top-three draft pick. Nejad pointed out the quarterback room of Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener is one of the league’s worst, and every defensive position group rates bottom-five by his power numbers. He does not see a realistic path to five wins even with the NFL’s third-easiest slate.

Sia Nejad stated he already bet UNDER 5.5 wins at plus money. His conviction stems from a rookie quarterback facing a bottom-five offensive line, arguably the league’s worst collection of pass-catchers, and a defense he and his co-hosts labeled "possibly the worst in the NFL" after losing depth and watching key starters open camp on the PUP list. Nejad expects Tennessee to be out-manned in both trenches, struggle to generate a pass rush, and live in negative game scripts, all of which point to another four-win season.

Sia Nejad called Viktor Hovland one of the best values on the board, saying he would have had "no issue" if DraftKings had priced him up where Tommy Fleetwood or Russell Henley sit in the low-10K tier. Nejad trusts Hovland’s elite tee-to-green profile and superior win equity over consistency plays in the same neighborhood, making Hovland a strong pivot with both ceiling and ownership leverage in large-field GPPs.

Sia Nejad named Lucas Glover his preferred play in the low-8k range, choosing him over options like Rickie Fowler and Akshay Bhatia. Nejad likes pairing Glover with Scheffler and Hovland because all three carry legitimate win equity, creating what he called a "ball-striker’s paradise" lineup. Glover’s consistently strong tee-to-green profile gives Nejad confidence he will grind four solid rounds in the no-cut format while still retaining ceiling if the putter cooperates.

Sia Nejad advised starting tournament-lineup builds with Scottie Scheffler even at the top price. He reasoned that the FedEx St. Jude is a 70-man, no-cut field and the $6k pool is deep enough to support stars-and-scrubs construction. Nejad is building six lineups; in three of them he will match the field’s Scheffler exposure because Scheffler’s combination of raw points and win equity is unmatched. The plan is to “have Scotty and figure it out from there,” trusting punt plays to unlock the ceiling Scheffler offers over four guaranteed rounds.

Sia Nejad said Cameron Young is a sneaky tournament play on DraftKings because the public will fixate on his ugly course history and ignore the underlying numbers. Nejad reminded listeners that in 2022 Young actually led the entire field Tee-to-Green and gained nine full strokes ball-striking, losing the event only with a horrific –5.5 strokes putting week. Fast-forward to 2025 and Young’s putter has been "super smooth," making that statistical profile far more dangerous. With ownership projections well behind popular 8 K chalk such as Ben Griffin and Chris Gotterup, Nejad likes grabbing Young’s ceiling at roughly $8,200 as both a DFS leverage piece and an outright sprinkle.

Sia Nejad explained that he has been stashing Sam Burns specifically for Southwind because Burns owns a playoff win here (2022) and two additional top-20s, gaining over 5.0 strokes putting on Bermuda in each start. With most entrants already out of Burns shares, Nejad expects single-digit ownership and thinks leveraging Burns’ elite putting and par-4 scoring on this 7,200-yard layout is the perfect contrarian move before burning Victor Hovland at the BMW.

Sia Nejad revealed he already bet the Saints under 4.5 wins at plus money. Despite New Orleans owning one of the league’s softest schedules, Nejad called them "the mark" of 2025, arguing that an easy slate does not help when you are the team everyone expects to beat. Quarterback uncertainty and overall roster talent gaps led him to project the Saints as a bottom-tier club incapable of reaching five victories, making the plus-price alternate under his favorite season-long win-total play.

Nejad said he is crossing Berger off his card even at a discounted salary. Berger is losing 0.7 strokes per round putting and around the green over the past three months and ranks bottom-15 in SG-Total on Bermuda during that span. The host added that South-wind’s tight zoysia surrounds place a premium on touch, an area where Berger has been ‘Kyle-Stanley bad’. No bets and no DFS shares for him this week.

Nejad highlighted Bridgeman as a sneaky $6,300 DraftKings play. The rookie ranks 12th in SG-Putting over the past 12 rounds and gains an extra 0.3 strokes on Bermuda compared to other surfaces. With water lurking on 11 holes, Nejad likes Bridgeman’s conservative 65% fairways-gained profile to grind through and push for a made cut, freeing salary for elite studs in roster construction.

Sia Nejad cautioned listeners to avoid Gerard despite his recent Barracuda win. Over the last three months Gerard is gaining exactly +1.0 strokes tee-to-green per round but hemorrhaging −1.0 with the flat stick—the worst figure in the entire field. Nejad said his 2024 strategy of eliminating ‘just find a putter’ profiles has paid dividends, and South-wind’s grainy Bermuda won’t suddenly fix Gerard’s woes. He will have zero exposure in both his betting card and DFS lineups.

Sia Nejad advised fading Daniel Berger in both outrights and DFS builds. While conceding that Berger’s tee-to-green profile and familiarity with Bermudagrass greens look fine on paper, Nejad emphasized how brutally bad the short game has been since the comeback. Berger ranks near the bottom of this field in strokes-gained around-the-green and sand saves over his past 24 rounds, and Nejad doubts he will hold up if he actually gets into Sunday contention. On top of that, Berger projects as one of the most popular sub-$7k salary relief options in Scheffler-anchored lineups, creating an ownership fade opportunity. In Nejad’s words, “Berger’s a no for me there too if that’s going to be the case.”

Sia Nejad said Chris Kirk is the one long-shot he would actually fire an each-way ticket on this week. With only 69 players in the field, Nejad wants exposure to a deep number that can still crack the top-5 and feels Kirk checks every box: steady recent ball-striking, proven comfort at TPC Southwind (opened 62 here last year and ultimately finished inside the top-10), and odds long enough to generate a meaningful payout. Nejad noted that other names in the same range, such as Lucas Glover or Wyndham Clark, either carry less value or more volatility, so Kirk is his preferred “big bomb” for outright and each-way markets.

Sam Burns joins Hovland in Nejad’s ‘without Big Four’ strategy. By stripping out Scheffler, Fleetwood, Schauffele and Justin Thomas, Nejad believes Burns can convert at an elevated return while keeping total exposure under one unit.

Nejad also played Hovland in the ‘without Scheffler, Fleetwood, Schauffele, Thomas’ pool at 28-1 after seeing the number drop from 30. The extra names removed give Hovland a cleaner path while only costing two points of price.

Nejad took Tommy Fleetwood at 18-1 in the DraftKings ‘without Scottie Scheffler’ market, arguing the price removes the tournament’s prohibitive favorite while still paying a true outright number on Fleetwood’s steady form.

Sia Nejad suggested a smaller stake on Chris Kirk at 60-1 for first-round leader. He called it a ‘moderate long-shot’ worth a sprinkle in the short field after Kirk rewarded each-way backers a week ago.

Nejad’s third first-round leader ticket is Sam Burns at 40-1. He wants scorers who can post a number early, and Burns’ putter gives him the ceiling Nejad is chasing in a limited FedEx-Cup field.

Sia Nejad added Viktor Hovland at 35-1 to his first-round leader portfolio, noting the condensed 69-man field means one hot Thursday can cash quickly. Hovland’s ability to fire low numbers fits the aggressive FRL approach Nejad has been riding all season.

Sia Nejad opened his FRL card with Tommy Fleetwood at 30-1. With only 69 players teeing it up at TPC Southwind the book has trimmed prices, so Nejad wants reliable ball-strikers at the very top. He reminded listeners that his last two appearances on the show produced a 110-1 FRL chop on Victor Perez, and he is sticking to the same short-field strategy here.

Sia Nejad suggested grabbing Danielle Hunter at 80-to-1 for Defensive Player of the Year. Hunter produced 12 sacks last season at age 30 and just received a fresh extension. Nejad expects Will Anderson Jr. to command double-teams on the opposite edge, freeing Hunter for clean rush lanes. With D’Amico Ryans dialing up pressure and Houston’s secondary creating extra coverage time, Nejad thinks a 15-sack season is in Hunter’s range of outcomes, making 80-1 a mis-priced flyer.

Sia Nejad could not resist a 120-1 outright on William Mao, insisting the collegiate star possesses far more raw talent than the price implies. Nejad said Mao "can absolutely get hot," citing the ISCO run where his putter caught fire and nearly carried him to a win. The upside hinges on an iron spike—Mao’s approach play surged during that Kentucky week—and Nejad believes the low-rough, water-everywhere setup in Minnesota rewards exactly that high-variance profile. If the flat stick travels again, Nejad sees Mao crashing the Sunday leaderboard and cashing a triple-digit ticket.

Sia Nejad played Davis Thompson –115 in a Round-1 head-to-head against Sungjae Im on DraftKings. Nejad said Im is simply "lost right now," pointing to five missed cuts in his last seven starts and a brutal approach slump that has bled into his normally solid driving. Even Im’s course résumé—a solo 2nd here two years ago—can’t offset the current form slide that has him losing strokes both off-the-tee and on approach in consecutive events. Nejad prefers Thompson’s Thursday ceiling: the rookie ranks near the top of this field in birdies-or-better, regularly gains distance on the field, and already sits on Sia’s First-Round Leader card. Nejad admitted Thompson’s putter can disappear but believes the ball-striking edge will create more birdie looks than Im can manufacture right now. With the number still just –115, Nejad tagged it a “pace-to-watch live” play and a low-juice way to double down on fading the out-of-sorts Korean star.

Sia Nejad added Jake Knapp to his outright card even though the 40-1 tag is shorter than the usual 55-to-60 range he prefers for the rookie. Nejad argued that Knapp’s ceiling is worth the squeeze: when the ball-striking cooperates he can "really pop" on approach and ride a streaky putter, a profile that wins birdie-fests at TPC Twin Cities. He reminded listeners that Knapp has already shown closing chops on Tour and "is not afraid of the moment," so if the irons heat up for even two rounds, the Californian can stay in the fight and convert on Sunday.

Nejad took the plunge on Sam Burns at 18-1, a price he normally avoids in birdie-fest fields but calls justified for the clear class of the tournament. Burns has gained more than six strokes putting in two of his last four starts and remains one of the few multi-win PGA TOUR members in Minnesota this week. Sia has been touting Burns’ impending breakout for more than a month and refuses to jump ship now that the draw softens. With water in play on 15 holes, Burns’ combination of distance and elite putter provides a scoring ceiling few others possess; Nejad is happy to eat the shorter number for that upside.

Sia Nejad made Michael Thorbjornsen his first click at 35-1, calling the rookie’s skill set tailor-made for TPC Twin Cities. Thorbjornsen is both long and accurate off the tee, ranking near the top of this field in Total Driving since turning pro. He has gained strokes on approach in four straight starts and posted multiple rounds of 64 or better during that stretch, proof he can keep pace in a 20-under shoot-out. Nejad emphasized that talent often wins these alt-strength events and believes the market still prices Thorbjornsen like an unknown rather than a future star.

Sia Nejad flagged Paul Peterson at +260 for top-40. Peterson led most of the ISCO before a Sunday 63 from William Mao clipped him, showing his ceiling. Although he’s the shortest hitter in the field, Peterson is first in driving accuracy and has gained on approach in five straight measured starts. That precision plus a hot putter can offset his lack of distance, and Nejad loves the swagger Peterson displayed down the stretch in Kentucky. At 2.6-1, even a quarter-unit stake offers nice upside.

Nejad bet Doug Ghim +115 for a top-40, leaning on the Texan’s repeated success at TPC Twin Cities. Ghim has finished inside the top 40 every time he’s played the event, which reassures Nejad about Ghim’s shaky putter. Recent ball-striking numbers remain solid, and Nejad believes the surroundings give Ghim confidence to survive any flat-stick lapses. He even hinted Ghim could lurk on Sunday, but the conservative top-40 ticket captures the profile with minimal risk.

Sia Nejad laid –115 on Sam Burns in a full-tournament head-to-head against Chris Gotterup. He acknowledged Gotterup’s first- and third-place finishes the last two weeks but called the sample tiny and links-course-dependent. Nejad expects 'water to find its level' as Gotterup returns to a park-land setup loaded with penalty hazards that punish his occasional wild driver. Burns, in Nejad’s view, is still the better overall golfer, fits TPC Twin Cities with elite putting and birdie runs, and is being discounted only because of Gotterup’s brief heater. Even odds on both sides made Burns the clear play for Nejad.

Sia Nejad recommended David Skinns at +330 to be the top finisher from the UK & Ireland sector. Nejad framed the pool as a two-horse race between Skinns and Matt Wallace (+125). Wallace owns the slightly better ball-striking profile and decent Twin Cities history, yet Nejad called Skinns the 'emerging' player, pointing to Skinns’ recent form spike since returning from Europe and the value disparity between the two numbers. Because Nejad believes neither Seamus Power (out of form) nor Danny Willett (multiple missed cuts) are realistic threats, he prefers a fractional stake on the longer +330 ticket, arguing that even a 0.3-unit play yields a strong return if Skinns continues trending.

Sia Nejad’s favorite Thursday ticket is Michael Thorbjornsen at 50-1 to lead after Round 1. Nejad loves the rookie’s blend of pop and accuracy off the tee, plus elite recent ball-striking data. With both morning and afternoon waves projected for similar winds, Nejad sees no draw disadvantage and thinks Thorbjornsen is “ready to make a big leap” by going low early.

Sia Nejad said he has been cashing tickets by attacking the 'without Scottie Scheffler' markets any time Scheffler tees it up. Nejad reminded listeners of past scores on Harris English and a near-miss on Matt Fitzpatrick in this very market. His logic is simple: Scheffler is on autopilot right now and is the best player in the world, so over four rounds he usually ends up on top. Rather than laying a short outright price or trying to guess if this is the rare week Scheffler stumbles, Nejad prefers to remove him (or the entire Big Four) from the equation and bet the rest of the field at far more attractive numbers.

Sia Nejad called Jordan Spieth a viable outright and DFS option despite a crowded elite tier. At 45-1 Spieth is "priced pretty fairly but playable," and Nejad’s updated rankings place him closer to the top-10 win equity than he originally expected. He highlighted Spieth’s hallmark creativity and improving off-the-tee numbers as traits that translate to Portrush’s demanding links routing. For DFS, Nejad loves the $7,700 DraftKings salary, calling it a ‘very palatable price point’ for a proven major winner. He even tossed in a strokes-gained-dad narrative after Spieth announced the birth of his second child, noting the honeymoon bump many players enjoy immediately after a new baby.

Nejad likes Matt Fitzpatrick at roughly 50-1 after watching him share the lead at the Genesis Scottish Open. Fitzpatrick’s accurate driving, elite short game and long-term success on fast fescue greens suit Royal Portrush. The Englishman’s ceiling, combined with the generous number, makes him a key addition to Nejad’s outright portfolio.

Sia Nejad flagged Adam Scott at 50–75-1 as a worthwhile outright. Scott’s ball-striking surge, highlighted by a strong showing at the Scottish Open, plus his major-champion pedigree and comfort in wind make him a live sleeper. Nejad is already invested and expects to keep Scott on his betting card for Portrush.

Sia Nejad argued that Sepp Straka is the perfect leverage play in large-field DraftKings contests this week. Straka has bled 4.0 and 4.5 strokes putting in his last two starts, which is why the industry has forgotten him, but Nejad pointed out that the Austrian ranks second only to Scottie Scheffler in Strokes Gained: Approach for the entire 2025 season. The Renaissance Club should offer plenty of birdie looks once the Thursday morning gusts die down, and Straka’s history of blitzing easy setups—he led the John Deere and AmEx fields in birdies—makes him an ideal scorer when conditions soften. With ownership currently identical to a banged-up Corey Conners, Nejad views Straka’s volatile flat stick as a feature, not a bug: if the putter flips, the tee-to-green floor guarantees a top-10 ceiling at single-digit roster rates.

Sia Nejad flagged Connor Syme as his favorite sub-$7K dart on DraftKings. Syme has quietly cashed in four of his last five starts on the DP World Tour and actually won the Dutch Open six weeks ago, proof the recent form spike is real. More important for Nejad, Syme finished T-15 at the Renaissance Club last year and has never missed the cut in three Scottish Open appearances, a resume that is almost unheard-of in this pricing zone. With Syme’s salary sitting at $6,700 and early ownership projections under three percent, Nejad thinks the home-soil narrative plus reliable cut-making record make him the ideal salary saver to unlock Scheffler- or McIlroy-anchored builds without eating chalk.

Sia Nejad said it is “really hard to build with Scotty” on DraftKings this week because the site did not price a usable 5-K range. Sliding Scheffler’s $12K tag into a lineup instantly forces two or three punts and pushes managers off the already-popular 8-K cluster of Matt Fitzpatrick, Robert MacIntyre and Ryan Fox. Nejad expects Scheffler’s ownership to remain high despite the roster crunch, so he prefers fading the World No. 1 and building balanced cards instead. In his view the salary squeeze creates a double whammy—Scheffler line-ups look similar and sacrifice depth—making a fade the sharper tournament path.

Sia Nejad highlighted Jacob Bridgman at $6,900 as his favorite bargain dart throw. Bridgman’s statistical profile—loose but long off the tee, excellent long-iron play, and a putter that can catch fire—creates the high-variance ceiling Nejad wants in large-field tournaments. He noted that Bridgman has already posted multiple top-25 finishes on similar coastal setups this year and ranks inside the top-20 on the Korn Ferry Tour in proximity from 175-225 yards, the bucket that dominates Renaissance Club approach shots. Given expected ownership below five percent, Nejad believes Bridgman is the ideal salary-saving piece to unlock Scheffler- or Hovland-anchored builds without dipping into the sketchier $6,500 range.

Sia Nejad warned DraftKings players that Matt Fitzpatrick is shaping up as one of the two highest-rostered golfers on the entire Scottish Open slate—right there with local hero Bobby MacIntyre. Nejad still likes Fitzpatrick as an outright bet, but sees little reason to eat 20-plus percent ownership in GPPs when the $9K range is packed with similarly projected scorers. With the sub-$7K pool offering very few trustworthy names, Nejad expects most Fitzpatrick lineups to look nearly identical and is therefore content to fade him completely and allocate those salary dollars to lower-owned pivots such as Viktor Hovland or Xander Schauffele. He framed the move as a classic leverage play: if chalk Fitz merely finishes top-20, you gain immediate ground on a huge chunk of the field.

Sia Nejad revealed that he is locking in Matt Fitzpatrick as his Scottish Open one-and-done selection. Nejad said managers sitting near the top of their leaderboard should prioritize stability over contrarian swings, and Fitzpatrick checks that box. The Englishman owns elite links pedigree, ranks top-10 in the field for strokes gained tee-to-green over the last eight weeks, and enjoys the preferred Thursday afternoon tee wave that Nejad has targeted all show. While Fitzpatrick will be a popular click, Nejad views the pick as a way to defend a lead: if Fitzpatrick posts the expected high finish, you keep pace with the room; if he spikes, you extend. Nejad contrasted that with chasing lower-owned names like Ryan Fox or Adam Scott—plays he does like on betting cards but deems too volatile for front-running one-and-done strategy.

Sia Nejad said he is happy to fire an outright on Adam Scott at the Scottish Open despite some market chatter about waiting a week. Nejad likes the Australian’s current trajectory—four straight top-30s with strokes gained on approach in each start—and pointed out that Scott thrives on coastal venues. Scott finished runner-up to Robert MacIntyre at the Renaissance Club last year, reinforcing Nejad’s view that the course suits Scott’s low-spin, wind-friendly ball flight. With proven links chops, top-10 putting splits on Fescue over the past three years, and sportsbook prices hovering in the mid-50-to-1 range, Nejad believes the number bakes in more volatility than Scott’s recent floor warrants. He is adding the outright and an each-way, expecting Scott’s combination of form and course history to put him firmly in the Sunday mix.