Stephen highlighted Jarren Duran as one of his ten best hitter match-ups for the May 1 slate. Duran owns a 9-for-18 career line with three home runs against Jose Berrios, the projected starter for Toronto. Stephen noted that Duran is also scorching right now, batting .600 with two homers and seven RBI over the past week, and Berrios has historically struggled to keep left-handed bats in the yard. Those two data points led Stephen to position Duran as an ideal target for total-bases or RBI props and a priority DFS play in the Red Sox–Blue Jays game.

Stephen said to take Carlos Rodon OVER 6.5 strikeouts at +106 (FanDuel), noting that everything lines up for the Yankee left-hander to continue his recent punch-out binge. Rodon has fanned 45 hitters in 36.0 IP and has recorded 8-plus Ks in four straight outings. His road strikeout rate sits at 33.3%, and he ranks inside the 80th percentile in whiff rate. Baltimore is a dream matchup for lefties right now, owning the sixth-highest K% versus southpaws over the past three weeks (27.8%) and generally struggling to pick up Rodon’s four-seam/slider combo. With game total set at 9.5, Stephen expects Kevin Cashman’s club to let Rodon work deep enough to clear seven strikeouts, making the plus money attractive for betting and single-entry DFS.

Stephen highlighted Freddy Peralta as a prime strikeout target against the swing-and-miss–heavy White Sox, suggesting bettors look to play the OVER on any K prop that opens at 6.5 or lower. Chicago owns the third-highest K rate versus right-handed pitching in the last three weeks (25%). Peralta has 36 strikeouts across 33.1 innings, posted six-plus Ks in each of his first four starts, and still shows strong underlying swing-and-miss metrics even after modest totals (5 and 3 Ks) in his last two games against lower-K clubs (Giants and A’s). He sports a 31% K rate vs right-handed hitters, giving him the platoon edge against a predominantly righty Chicago lineup. If books hang a discounted number because of his recent dip, Stephen believes the over is actionable for both betting slips and DFS pitcher pools.

Stephen backed the Rockies first-five moneyline at +135 (half-unit) for Monday’s game in Coors Field. He argued the elevation shift favors Colorado because the Braves are flying in day-of while the Rockies stay home. Starting pitching is the key: Ryan Feltner owns a 3.86 ERA and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of five starts, including two strong outings in Coors. Bryce Elder, thrust into Atlanta’s rotation by injuries, carries a 5.50 ERA, a plummeting 13% strikeout rate and rising walk rate after posting a 6.50 ERA over the final two months of 2023. Stephen noted Elder has produced only one quality start this year and believes he is “not long for the majors.” By isolating the first five innings, he avoids Colorado’s league-worst bullpen while still capitalizing on the superior pitching matchup and travel edge.

Stephen noted Bryce Harper is hitless in 10 career at-bats against Colin Rea, an unusual blind spot given Harper’s overall form. While there are no strikeouts in the sample, the lack of hard contact led Stephen to wave a caution flag for Harper props and DFS exposure in this matchup.

Stephen warned that Taijuan Walker’s sparkling 2.29 ERA is smoke and mirrors. Walker’s strike-out rate sits below league average, his walk rate is creeping up, and his expected ERA projects closer to the mid-4s. Stephen recommended fading the veteran right-hander in the betting markets—whether that’s taking Brewers hitters in DFS or playing Milwaukee’s first-five team total—before the inevitable regression hits.

Stephen said Tanner Houck’s surface-level 7.66 ERA looks ugly but emphasized it is wildly out of line with a 3.6 expected ERA. Houck’s blow-up came in one start where Boston let him wear 11 earned runs; in his other three outings he has surrendered three earned or fewer. His 25.0% strike-out rate and 1.05 WHIP suggest the underlying stuff is intact. Stephen argued this makes Houck a sneaky betting target for overs on pitching outs or strikeouts and a discounted DFS tournament play because the market is still pricing him like a gas-can.

Stephen advised staying away from Pete Alonso props on Friday, noting that the Mets slugger is just 3‑for‑18 with four strikeouts against Miles Mikolas. Mikolas’ pitch‑to‑contact style has consistently neutralized Alonso’s power, and Stephen prefers pivoting to other first‑base options in DFS and avoiding Alonso’s RBI or home‑run markets.

Stephen pointed out that Dansby Swanson destroys Corbin Burnes, going 11‑for‑18 with three extra‑base hits and two homers lifetime. Burnes has not looked like himself, surrendering 2‑4‑3 earned runs in his first three outings while issuing nine walks. With the wind forecast to blow out at Wrigley, Stephen expects Burnes’ command issues to catch up to him and labeled Swanson a prime DFS tournament play and plus‑money total bases target.

Stephen said Bryce Harper should be near the top of Friday DFS pools because he owns Sandy Alcantara. Harper is 12‑for‑39 (.308) with five extra‑base hits and a homer off the former Cy Young winner. Alcantara is still piling up grounders (65.1 % ground‑ball rate) but the swing‑and‑miss has vanished, giving him just league‑average strikeout numbers in 2024. With Alcantara allowing steady hard contact and the heart of the Phillies order behind him, Stephen expects Harper to see multiple RBI chances and likes sprinkling a home‑run prop as well.