Stephen likes Jackson Chourio props against left‑hander Robbie Ray, focusing on over 1.5 total bases (around +135) and H+R+RBI. Chourio owns a gaudy 1.000 OPS and .324 batting average versus southpaws. He has recorded at least one hit in 17 of 22 games overall and eight of nine when a lefty starts. Against left‑handed starters he has exceeded the HRR line in seven of nine games and the total bases mark in six of nine. Ray’s control issues raise the walk risk, but Stephen emphasized that San Francisco’s bullpen is missing key arms, giving Chourio extra cracks at lesser relievers. He views the rookie’s lefty‑splits and weaker bullpen backdrop as reasons to back the over on Chourio’s hitting props.

Stephen highlighted Pete Alonso’s dominance of Aaron Nola and suggested betting both the total bases (+150) and hits‑runs‑RBIs (over 1.5 at –110) props. Alonso is 16‑for‑50 lifetime off Nola with eight extra‑base hits and five homers. At home this year he has cleared both lines in 6 of 10 games and has gone over in 5 of 9 contests versus right‑handed starters. Overall, the Polar Bear has at least one hit in 15 of 22 games. Nola’s form is shaky—Stephen called it “mightily struggling”—which further tilts the matchup in Alonso’s favor. Given the hitter’s history and Nola’s current woes, Stephen believes Alonso is primed to eclipse both prop lines again.

Stephen (Just a Bet Outside) recommended Max Meyer over 5.5 strikeouts at +125 for a half‑unit. Meyer has cleared this number in three of four starts with strikeout totals of 7, 8, 4 and 7 while generating 18, 9, 15 and 12 whiffs, respectively. A clear pattern has emerged: when Meyer faces teams inside the top 15 for strikeout rate against right‑handed pitching he records at least seven punch‑outs. The Reds fit that profile, sporting the 10th‑highest K‑rate versus righties (23.4%). Stephen rattled off comparable pitchers—Bryce Miller (8 Ks), Justin Verlander (9), Logan Webb (10 and 5) and Nathan Eovaldi (8)—who all piled up strikeouts against Cincinnati. He praised Meyer’s command, plus‑slider and whiff ability, calling the +125 price "bonkers" given the matchup. He expects six‑plus Ks if Meyer simply maintains his early‑season form.

Stephen (Just a Bet Outside) doubled‑down on his earlier Milwaukee wager and added a fresh angle: the bullpen mismatch. He noted that San Francisco’s three best relievers—Tyler Rogers and Ryan Walker have pitched on back‑to‑back days, while Camilo Doval threw 30 pitches yesterday—are either unavailable or severely limited. Milwaukee, meanwhile, cruised to a 14‑1 win Sunday and needed only a three‑inning mop‑up stint from Tyler Alexander, leaving every high‑leverage arm fully rested. Stephen also pointed out the Giants’ offense has come crashing back to earth after a scorching two‑week run (now 15th in WRC+, 24th in batting average vs RHP the past 14 days). With left‑hander Robbie Ray fighting his command (13 walks in his last 14 innings) and a Brewers lineup that mashes southpaws—Jackson Chourio 1.000 OPS, Brice Turang .342 AVG, Sal Frelick .355 AVG, Rhys Hoskins .296 AVG—he believes the game should be closer to pick‑em. Getting +125 on Milwaukee’s money line is, in his words, “a mis‑price worth a half‑unit.”

Stephen said the +125 money‑line number on Milwaukee is mispriced and worth a half‑unit play. He trusts rookie Quinn Priester more than Robbie Ray right now. Priester has allowed only seven hits and one earned run through two starts, one of which came at Coors Field, and he leans heavily on off‑speed stuff that muted hard contact against both the Rockies and Tigers. Ray, on the other hand, has completely lost the zone—13 walks in his last 14 innings and 15 total hits surrendered in 19.1 IP—effectively putting a runner on base every frame. Stephen added that San Francisco’s offense is cooling off (15th in WRC+, 24th in batting average vs right‑handers over the past two weeks) after a torrid stretch, while Milwaukee’s lefty mashers such as Jackson Chourio (.324 AVG, 1.000 OPS vs LHP), Brice Turang (.342) and Sal Frelick (.355) give the Brewers a lineup advantage against the southpaw. With Ray’s control issues likely to create traffic and the Giants’ bats regressing, Stephen believes the Brewers have enough edges to justify backing them at plus money.