Stephen Oh targeted Kyler Murray over 0.5 interceptions at +110 (available at smaller books, priced ‑113 at FanDuel). His model would set the line at ‑110, giving bettors a small but real edge at + odds. Murray has historically been looser with the ball at home—0.8 INTs per game and a 56.8% over rate—than on the road (0.6). Seattle already owns five picks this year (second-most in the league) despite missing Devon Witherspoon and second-round safety Nick Emmanwori; both are expected back Thursday, which could drive the price deeper into negative juice. Locking in the plus number now captures that anticipated movement.

Stephen Oh recommended Trey Benson over 60.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel). With James Conner out, the rookie inherits an offense that averaged 163 rushing yards and 5.5 ypc last season. The model still leans on that data and projects 140 team rushing yards, translating to 70-plus for Benson even though his carry projection (about 14) is slightly below the 14.5 attempts line. Oh highlighted Benson’s career 5.6 ypc explosiveness and minimal competition: Emari Demercado’s prop sits at 13.5 yards and Kyler Murray’s at 28.5. Seattle surrendered 123 rushing yards per road game at 4.7 ypc in 2024, making the over a strong value play.

Stephen Oh played Tory Horton over 1.5 receptions (-165 BetMGM), calling it the last week books will hang a WR3 line this low. Since locking down the No. 3 role in Week 2, Horton owns 13% of Seattle’s catches (4 targets, 32 yards and a score in each of the last two games). Darnold’s completion prop is a juiced 19.5 and the combined lines for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp account for only half of those projected completions, leaving a handful unpriced. The model projects 3.1 grabs on 4.5 targets, comfortably clearing the two-catch hurdle.

Stephen Oh advised taking Sam Darnold over 215.5 passing yards at ‑115 on Fanatics. Darnold averaged 250 yards per game with Minnesota last season and is still at 221 in Seattle despite two run-heavy scripts (only 23 attempts vs San Francisco and 18 in the New Orleans rout). His yards per attempt has jumped from 7.9 to just under 9 with Shane Waldron calling a deeper passing attack. Arizona stuffs the run (76 yards allowed, 3.8 ypc) and forces opponents into 47 pass attempts per game; even with the Cards holding foes to 5.8 YPA, raw volume should push Darnold past the number. The model projects 244 yards, creating almost 30 yards of cushion on the listed prop.

Stephen Oh said his SportsLine Projection Model makes Seattle a live underdog on Thursday night, giving the Seahawks a 57% chance to cover +1.5 compared with the 54.1% break-even odds at ‑118 on DraftKings. The model projects nearly 23 points for Seattle versus the 21.3 implied total and expects Sam Darnold to throw for 244 yards. Oh noted that typical short-week road fatigue should be mitigated because Seattle coasted through the second half of last week’s blowout of New Orleans, allowing the starters to rest. Those edges, paired with a slight mismatch between Arizona’s run-first offense and Seattle’s upgraded pass defense, make the spread the sharper angle than the money line.