Steve Buchanan expects an early flurry of runs between the Rangers and Cubs, recommending betting over 4.5 runs in the first five innings. His main reasoning revolves around the return of Patrick Corbin, who's coming in after no spring games, minor league outings, or real game action this season—only a simulated game of around 80 pitches. Buchanan highlights Corbin's troubling stats from last year (5.62 ERA, 5.53 expected ERA, 4.41 FIP over 174.2 innings), and specifically calls attention to his primary pitch (sinker), which allowed opposing hitters a .334 average (.406 wOBA) and 14 home runs. Buchanan also notes Jameson Taillon's early-season struggles, surrendering eight runs and three home runs in two starts. Opponents have hit .333 against Taillon's fastball and .375 against his cutter, setting the stage for significant early offense from both teams.

Steve Buchanan advises betting over 4.5 runs in the first five innings of the Orioles and Diamondbacks matchup, due to the early-season struggles of both starting pitchers. Charlie Morton has allowed nine runs on 13 hits—including three homers—in just 8.1 innings, despite having strikeout upside. Morton particularly struggles against left-handed hitters, allowing a .338 wOBA and an inflated 5.2 walks per nine innings last season, matching up badly with Arizona’s abundant left-handed hitters. Merrill Kelly is also struggling, fresh off a disastrous outing against the Yankees (nine earned runs, nine hits, three walks allowed) and having control trouble (four walks against the Cubs). Buchanan highlights the Orioles lineup as patient and disciplined, particularly with Gunnar Henderson back in the lineup, further bolstering the case for strong early offensive production from both lineups.