Makinen laid the small number with Buffalo -1.5. Home favorites facing teams that finished above .500 the prior year are 50-30-5 ATS (62.5%) in Week 1 since 2000. Orchard Park has been a house of horrors for Baltimore—home teams are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in the series since 1999, including Buffalo’s 27-25 playoff win last January. Sean McDermott is 15-3 SU/ATS when favored by fewer than three points, and Makinen believes this veteran roster is laser-focused on taking the next step in 2025.

Makinen bet Houston +3, referencing a 3-17-1 ATS skid for home teams priced between +3 and -3 in Week 1 non-conference clashes since 2015. The Rams’ outlook is clouded by Matthew Stafford’s lingering back issues, while the Texans are fully healthy and led by third-year QB C.J. Stroud after consecutive post-season runs. DraftKings bettors are 56% on Houston, and Makinen trusts that action because majority sides in 2023-24 non-conference games finished 55.2% ATS (79-64).

Makinen likes Atlanta +1.5. Divisional home underdogs are 24-6 ATS (80%) in Week 1 since 2009, and favorites seeking revenge for a loss the prior season cover only 38.1% (16-26 ATS). The Falcons are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six against Tampa Bay and now hand the offense to Michael Penix, who spurred high-scoring outputs during three 2024 starts. Despite the Bucs chasing a fifth straight NFC South title behind Baker Mayfield’s resurgent play, the historical angles point to the Falcons springing another upset.

Makinen snatched New Orleans +6.5, calling Arizona an untrustworthy favorite. Since 2013, Week 1 underdogs of 6.5+ are 30-13-1 ATS (69.8%). The Cardinals themselves are just 19-32 ATS (37.3%) when laying points since 2016 and are 8-1 ATS as the visitor in this series. He expects new Saints coach Kellen Moore’s aggressive offense to show immediate improvement against a Cards team that averaged only 23.5 PPG last year and rarely covers when respected by the market.

Taking Las Vegas +2.5, Makinen believes betting love for the Patriots should swing to the Raiders. He highlighted the seamless pairing of new coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith, a duo that posted prolific passing numbers in Seattle. The Raiders also imported explosive RB Ashton Jeanty while retaining defensive star Maxx Crosby. Although New England gets a culture reset with Mike Vrabel and promising QB Drake Maye, Makinen expects Carroll’s proven system to click faster, making LV a live dog in Foxborough.

Makinen is on the Giants +6. He cited the 17-14 SU, 21-10-1 ATS run (67.7%) for divisional road underdogs of 6.5 or fewer since 2013. Historically the G-Men travel well to D.C., going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips. With veteran Russell Wilson stabilizing a position that torpedoed 2024, and natural regression likely after Washington’s surprise NFC title-game appearance, Makinen sees value catching six in a rivalry game.

Makinen took Carolina +3.5, arguing the market is pricing in misplaced optimism on Jacksonville. He noted the Jaguars limped to a 2-7 finish in 2024 and are starting over with new coach Liam Coen. Meanwhile the Panthers went 4-5 down the stretch, averaging 24.1 PPG once Bryce Young settled in. Makinen likes backing teams that played better than their record late the previous season; he believes that carry-over and the Jaguars’ unearned respect make the points too valuable to pass up.