Makinen laid –4.5 with Baltimore on Monday night. Teams averaging 6.75+ yards per play through two weeks are 20-8 SU/ATS in Week 3, while clubs that just posted an 8.75+ YPP game like Detroit are 17-29-2 ATS their next time out. John Harbaugh is 9-1 ATS versus offenses scoring 27+ PPG, and Lamar Jackson is 32-9 SU/27-13 ATS in games following a 30-point outing. The Lions have failed to cover their last four trips to Baltimore. Makinen expects the Ravens’ balanced attack to expose Detroit’s still-suspect defense.

Makinen leaned to the Giants +6 on Sunday night. Winless teams catching +3.5 or more in Week 3 cover 66 %. New York is 8-1 ATS against Kansas City since 1992, and Russell Wilson sports a 13-4 ATS mark as a home underdog. Veteran QBs in a new home uniform are 107-87-11 ATS (55 %). DK splits show heavy public support for Kansas City across all metrics, a scenario that has underperformed. The Giants’ offense ranks sixth in total yards after last week’s 506-yard outburst, outperforming the Chiefs through two games. Makinen warns against blindly laying road chalk with KC in this spot.

Makinen sided with Chicago +1.5 after the line flipped from Bears –1.5 at open. DraftKings shows 77 % handle and 83 % tickets on Dallas; sides attracting >68 % handle are only 46.7 % ATS the last two seasons. Teams surrendering >6.5 yards per play through two weeks rebound 65 % ATS in Week 3. Chicago is 21-12 SU/ATS versus defenses allowing 27+ PPG since 2015, and Dallas is giving up 30.5 PPG. New Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer’s clubs are 38.7 % ATS when trying to string wins together. Makinen expects a much sharper Bears effort at home.

Makinen grabbed New Orleans +7. Spencer Rattler has opened 2025 with 421 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, helping Alvin Kamara regain burst. League-wide angles support winless sides: 0-2 teams vs 1-1 are 40-17-1 ATS, and dogs of +3.5 or more that haven’t won yet cover 66 %. The Saints travel well (36-23 ATS on the road since 2018). Seattle QB Sam Darnold is 4-13-1 ATS in his last 18 starts against losing teams. Makinen thinks the number is inflated and expects the Saints to hang around all game.

Makinen endorsed Houston +1.5. Since 2010, 0-2 clubs versus 1-1 opponents in Week 3 are 40-17-1 ATS. Underdogs are 6-0 ATS in Houston-at-Jacksonville meetings since 2018, and the Texans have won nine of their last 12 divisional games. Bettors agree (61 % handle, 66 % tickets), and majority-bet sides with fewer season wins have been profitable (46-38 ATS). Rookie head coach Liam Coen faces two negative trends: first-year coaches are 45.5 % ATS at home and 46.5 % in divisional games over the past decade. Makinen expects the Texans to break through.

Makinen took New England +1.5, noting Aaron Rodgers is 6-17 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021. Veteran quarterbacks in their first season with a new team are 29-51-1 ATS when laying points away from home since 2004. The Patriots own the series (8-1 SU, 6-1-2 ATS since 2013). Teams giving up >6.5 yards per play through two weeks rebound at a 65 % ATS clip in Week 3, and New England’s offense just posted 34 points behind Rhamondre Stevenson and Drake Maye. Makinen sees the Pats as a live home dog.

Makinen backed Philadelphia –3.5. While 72 % of DK handle loves the Rams as a road dog, majority-handle road dogs have covered only 42.9 % since 2023. The Eagles are 26-5 at Lincoln Financial Field since 2022, and Nick Sirianni is 23-2 SU/17-7 ATS as a single-digit home favorite. Philly is also 14-4 SU/15-3 ATS against defenses allowing fewer than 19 PPG since 2020. Makinen thinks the public is overreacting to two quiet passing games and expects the champs to flex at home.

Makinen laid –3 with Minnesota, arguing Joe Burrow is worth more than the 3.5-point downgrade books applied. Despite 77 % of DraftKings money backing Cincinnati, super-majority sides (>68 % handle) are just 71-81 ATS the past two seasons and road dogs in that role are 27-36 ATS. Head-to-head, home teams are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the CIN-MIN series since 1995. The Vikings are 30-17 SU/31-14 ATS versus AFC foes since 2014, and Makinen sees temporary upside with Carson Wentz replacing a struggling JJ McCarthy.

Makinen recommended Carolina +5.5. He flagged Atlanta’s sputtering offense under Michael Penix and the Falcons’ brutal 38-67 ATS record as single-digit favorites since 2012. Underdogs are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last ten ATL-CAR meetings. League-wide, 0-2 teams facing 1-1 opponents in Week 3 are 40-17-1 ATS (70 %) since 2010, and winless dogs getting +3.5 or more cover 66 % of the time. After nearly erasing a huge deficit at Arizona, Carolina carries momentum and historical support as the value side.

Steve Makinen advised grabbing Tennessee +4.5 at home. His power ratings make the game Colts –2.8, far from the posted number. Since 2008, 2-0 teams that have outscored opponents by 25+ points are just 18-31-2 ATS in Week 3. DraftKings reports 71 % of handle on Indianapolis and majority-handle favorites in divisional games have gone 117-148 ATS (44.2 %) the last three seasons. Tennessee is 21-12 SU/21-11 ATS off a home loss since 2015, and first-year starter Cam Ward has protected the ball well. Makinen expects a close divisional slugfest and wants the points with the Titans.

Makinen laid the small number with Buffalo -1.5. Home favorites facing teams that finished above .500 the prior year are 50-30-5 ATS (62.5%) in Week 1 since 2000. Orchard Park has been a house of horrors for Baltimore—home teams are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in the series since 1999, including Buffalo’s 27-25 playoff win last January. Sean McDermott is 15-3 SU/ATS when favored by fewer than three points, and Makinen believes this veteran roster is laser-focused on taking the next step in 2025.

Makinen bet Houston +3, referencing a 3-17-1 ATS skid for home teams priced between +3 and -3 in Week 1 non-conference clashes since 2015. The Rams’ outlook is clouded by Matthew Stafford’s lingering back issues, while the Texans are fully healthy and led by third-year QB C.J. Stroud after consecutive post-season runs. DraftKings bettors are 56% on Houston, and Makinen trusts that action because majority sides in 2023-24 non-conference games finished 55.2% ATS (79-64).

Makinen likes Atlanta +1.5. Divisional home underdogs are 24-6 ATS (80%) in Week 1 since 2009, and favorites seeking revenge for a loss the prior season cover only 38.1% (16-26 ATS). The Falcons are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six against Tampa Bay and now hand the offense to Michael Penix, who spurred high-scoring outputs during three 2024 starts. Despite the Bucs chasing a fifth straight NFC South title behind Baker Mayfield’s resurgent play, the historical angles point to the Falcons springing another upset.

Makinen snatched New Orleans +6.5, calling Arizona an untrustworthy favorite. Since 2013, Week 1 underdogs of 6.5+ are 30-13-1 ATS (69.8%). The Cardinals themselves are just 19-32 ATS (37.3%) when laying points since 2016 and are 8-1 ATS as the visitor in this series. He expects new Saints coach Kellen Moore’s aggressive offense to show immediate improvement against a Cards team that averaged only 23.5 PPG last year and rarely covers when respected by the market.

Taking Las Vegas +2.5, Makinen believes betting love for the Patriots should swing to the Raiders. He highlighted the seamless pairing of new coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith, a duo that posted prolific passing numbers in Seattle. The Raiders also imported explosive RB Ashton Jeanty while retaining defensive star Maxx Crosby. Although New England gets a culture reset with Mike Vrabel and promising QB Drake Maye, Makinen expects Carroll’s proven system to click faster, making LV a live dog in Foxborough.

Makinen is on the Giants +6. He cited the 17-14 SU, 21-10-1 ATS run (67.7%) for divisional road underdogs of 6.5 or fewer since 2013. Historically the G-Men travel well to D.C., going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips. With veteran Russell Wilson stabilizing a position that torpedoed 2024, and natural regression likely after Washington’s surprise NFC title-game appearance, Makinen sees value catching six in a rivalry game.

Makinen took Carolina +3.5, arguing the market is pricing in misplaced optimism on Jacksonville. He noted the Jaguars limped to a 2-7 finish in 2024 and are starting over with new coach Liam Coen. Meanwhile the Panthers went 4-5 down the stretch, averaging 24.1 PPG once Bryce Young settled in. Makinen likes backing teams that played better than their record late the previous season; he believes that carry-over and the Jaguars’ unearned respect make the points too valuable to pass up.