Steve Merrill called Atlanta a live underdog and suggested attacking the plus-1 run line at roughly –115. His case: the game projects as low-scoring, which reduces variance and magnifies run-line value. Although fading Wheeler is "scary" given Philadelphia’s 10-1 run and the ace’s three straight scoreless starts, Merrill expects regression and trusts Smith-Shawver in a bounce-back after being shelled by Washington; prior to that outing the rookie allowed only one earned run across three starts. Merrill also noted sharp action already trimming Philadelphia from –170 to –145, signaling market respect for Atlanta. For bettors lacking a +1 line, he advised splitting a stake between Braves moneyline and +1.5 at heavy juice to approximate the same exposure.

Steve Merrill recommended betting the Braves-Phillies game under 7.5 runs. He pointed to Zack Wheeler’s dominant form—19.0 consecutive scoreless innings over his last three starts—and A.J. Smith-Shawver’s 3.70 season ERA despite last week’s seven-run blow-up, noting the rookie had surrendered only one earned run across the three outings before that meltdown. Merrill highlighted that both teams combined for just 10 hits in Tuesday’s 2–0 final, that early sharp money pushed the total from 8 to 7.5, and that each club has cashed the over only once in its last six (Braves) and five (Phillies) games respectively. With a key number of 7 still untouched and both offenses slumping, Merrill believes the under remains the best betting angle.

Steve Merrill advised laying -1.5 runs with Detroit at roughly -110 instead of paying the hefty -190 money-line. He sees a decisive pitching edge with Tarik Skubal against Erick Fedde and a shaky St. Louis bullpen. Merrill reminded listeners that Detroit still owns the best record in baseball—four more wins than any AL club and two more than any NL team—even after Monday’s 11-4 loss. Because the Tigers are on the road, they are guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat if trailing, which statistically boosts a favorite’s ability to cover the run line. Merrill framed tonight as a classic ‘bounce-back’ for a strong team with its ace on the mound and recommended the run line to turn an expensive favorite into a pick-em-price wager.

Steve Merrill said to bypass the steep -190 money-line and take New York at even money on the -1.5 run line. Merrill acknowledged Patrick Corbin’s shiny new 3.35 ERA but argued it is fool’s gold: the lefty’s strikeout rate remains pedestrian (29 K in 37 IP), his walk total is already 13, and his batted-ball profile shows no velocity bump. Corbin allowed 139 strikeouts in 174 innings last year and 124 in 180 the season prior, so Merrill expects the Yankees’ power bats to put the ball in play and find barrels. He noted that elite offenses such as the Dodgers and Yankees historically win by multiple runs—mirroring Colorado’s tendency to lose by margin—making the run line a logical way to ‘fade Corbin’ while avoiding big juice.

Steve Merrill advised betting the Houston Astros team total under 3.5 runs in Thursday’s nationally-televised matchup with the Texas Rangers. He explained that sharp money already hammered the full-game total from 7.5 down to the key number of 7, so the better value now lies in fading Houston’s offense. Merrill trusts Jacob deGrom’s current 2.70 ERA over 43 innings with a 46-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio and noted that the Astros lineup has virtually no exposure to him—collectively just 6-for-27 (.222) in limited head-to-head plate appearances. Meanwhile, the Rangers have seen Hunter Brown three times and scored eight runs off him in 15 innings last season. Houston’s bats have cooled off after a 20-run outburst last week, producing only two and four runs in their last two games, both at home. The Astros are nearly a full run worse on the road and must travel without rest, while Texas’s bullpen has performed better at home. With deGrom’s edge, Houston’s diminished road splits, and a supportive bullpen, Merrill believes the Astros struggle to reach four runs, making the under 3.5 a strong wager.

Steve Merrill recommended attacking the total in Angels-Padres, favoring Over 8.5 (or Padres team total Over 4.5). He noted the Padres enter on a 5-0 over run while the Angels have gone over in seven of their last nine, including three straight. The key culprit is the Angels’ bullpen, which sports a 7.00 ERA and 1.80 WHIP on the road—arguably the worst relief unit in MLB. Starting pitching is unlikely to bail them out: Kyle Hendricks has a 5.30 ERA this season after a 5.90 mark last year, with just 21 K versus 15 BB in 35 IP and diminished velocity; San Diego tagged him for 7 ER on 9 hits over 5 innings in their lone 2024 meeting. Padres starter Randy Vasquez has been merely average, and the Angels have never faced him, but Merrill still views him as hittable. Despite San Diego recording only six and five hits in two of the last three games, they plated 6 and 4 runs, showing scoring efficiency. Some sharper books have already moved the total to 9, so Merrill sees value at 8.5 and prefers isolating the Padres’ offense over 4.5 runs if bettors want to avoid relying on Los Angeles.

Steve Merrill said the only way to play Rockies-Rangers is to lay the –1.5 run line with Texas at roughly –110. He pointed out that Colorado is a staggering 7-35 overall and 2-19 on the road, averaging fewer than two runs per game away from Coors Field and against left-handed pitching. Thirty of the Rockies’ 35 losses (30-4 last 34) have come by at least two runs, so the run-line cover rate when they lose is 88%. Merrill added that veteran lefty Patrick Corbin has revived his career in Texas, allowing only 11 earned runs and 32 hits so far after surrendering 109 ER and 208 hits last season; the market is still pricing him like the 2021-23 version. Opposing starter Antonio Senzatela ranks among the league leaders in hard-hit balls surrendered. Merrill also noted the Rockies’ team total is 3.5 despite their sub-2 run averages, making the TT under another angle, but his preferred play is Rangers –1.5.