Steve Seagrave recommended betting on the Red Sox moneyline as Boston looks primed to rebound against Kevin Gausman and break their recent two-game losing streak. Seagrave emphasized Gausman's weaker historical performance at Fenway Park and how Boston's top hitters like Duran and Devers have strong success against him (both combining for 10 doubles and two homers in 49 at-bats). In contrast, Tanner Houck has historically succeeded against current Jays hitters (only .182 batting average allowed), making the Red Sox a valuable betting play at -130 odds.

Steve Seagrave identified Tanner Houck as likely to have a solid performance against Toronto due to his strong recent history against the Jays. In three starts against Toronto last season, Houck impressed, going 17.1 innings and allowing just 4 total earned runs. Current Blue Jays hitters have struggled significantly versus Houck, batting just .182 across a substantial sample size of 88 at-bats with zero home runs. Although Houck generally has performance shortcomings at Fenway (a half-run higher ERA at home vs away last season), the specific matchup against Toronto boosts Seagrave's confidence.

Steve Seagrave highlighted Kevin Gausman's historical difficulties at Fenway Park as reason for fading him against the Red Sox. His career ERA at Fenway is half a run higher than his overall career average, indicating consistent struggles in Boston. Additionally, the top of the Red Sox lineup has been successful against Gausman, particularly Jarren Duran (7 for 19 with five doubles and a home run) and Rafael Devers (9 for 30, also five doubles and a home run). Considering this matchup history, Seagrave expects Boston's hitters to perform well against Gausman, making him wary of trusting the Blue Jays starter here.

Steve Seagrave advised betting the under on Justin Steele's total outs recorded at 15.5. He reasoned that Steele will likely have strict pitch limits early, as shown last season where Steele never exceeded the fifth inning and pitched only 67, 68, and 74 pitches in his first three starts. In his season opener against the Dodgers, he threw just 67 pitches over four innings. Further concern arises because he's facing a Diamondbacks lineup that was exceptional vs left-handed pitching in 2024. Steele is thus expected to struggle again, particularly due to limited pitch counts and matchup disadvantages. This prop is currently available at minus-120 at DraftKings, significantly better than the minus-160 at FanDuel.

Steve Seagrave recommended betting Arizona Diamondbacks on the moneyline for Opening Day against the Chicago Cubs. Justin Steele struggled significantly in his opener against the Dodgers, surrendering five earned runs and three home runs in just four innings. Zac Gallen, meanwhile, demonstrated excellent form at Chase Field last season, going 8-3 with a 3.36 ERA and a stellar .235 batting average against. Additionally, Arizona historically performs very well in home openers, winning comfortably the past four times they've opened the season at home, most recently with a blowout win (16-1) over Colorado last year. This blend of favorable history, home advantage, and pitching superiority makes the Diamondbacks a strong wager at -125.