Teddy Covers advised taking the Nationals on the moneyline because he believes the Diamondbacks should not be laying -180/-190 in their current form. His reasoning: 1) Washington's lineup is "on fire," having scored in bunches again last night; 2) Arizona's bullpen is, in his words, "a freaking disaster area" with every reliever carrying a fatigue rating for this game; 3) The Diamondbacks' expected starter has been hittable and "hasn't been shutting everyone down"; 4) Teddy's personal betting philosophy de-emphasizes individual starters and focuses on overall team form, which clearly favors Washington right now. Putting those factors together, he feels the marketplace is badly over-valuing Arizona, making the Nationals a plus-EV side.

Teddy Covers said he will be hunting overs in upcoming Mets games, citing an offense he trusts and a bullpen that is beginning to reveal "real cracks" despite outperforming expectations early. While he did not pull the trigger on the over in the Gray matchup because he respects the Cardinals ace, Covers expects New York’s combination of a potent lineup and shaky late-inning relief to create high-scoring environments that the betting market has yet to fully price in over the next several weeks.

Teddy Covers advised betting the St. Louis Cardinals moneyline in the May 2 matchup against the Mets. He argued that New York’s 21-11 start has them priced like an elite club, yet they have lost two straight and are only 3-4 over their last seven while ranking outside MLB’s five most profitable teams. That overvaluation meets a Cardinals side whose 14-18 record is skewed by a brutal six-series stretch versus the Reds, Brewers, Astros, Phillies, Mets and Braves. Covers pointed to Sonny Gray’s dominant history versus New York (4-0, 2.78 ERA career; six innings of one-run ball in Queens earlier this year) and a respectable six-inning, three-run outing against Milwaukee last week. With the Mets bullpen beginning to show cracks and Gray giving St. Louis the starting-pitching edge, Covers labeled this a clear “Cardinals-or-pass” spot at a slight plus price.