Mark called Padres –190 a perfect "dance-partner" money-line piece, trusting Nick Pivetta to "shut the door" against a Pirates lineup that has been over-performing. He expects Pittsburgh’s recent uptick in contact quality to vanish after flying west and forecasted a potential "shalacking" in San Diego’s favor. The bookmaker’s conservative seven-run total gave him slight pause on the Over 7.5 lean, but he ultimately labeled it Padres or nothing, suggesting bettors pair San Diego with other -150 to -200 favorites in small parlays.

Mark made the Dodgers +1.5 runs at -140 a full-unit play, emphasizing how seldom bettors see Los Angeles catching a run at anything under -150. The Yankees send Cy Young frontrunner Max Fried (7–0, 1.29 ERA) to the hill, which is inflating the price in Mark’s view. He framed this as a pride game for LA and even sprinkled the Dodgers’ money line at +115, predicting Tony Gonsolin can match Fried long enough for the Dodgers’ bullpen and lineup depth to cash. Mark reminded listeners that bookmakers only need balanced action, not predictive accuracy, and thinks public love for Fried has shoved the value squarely onto the Dodgers’ side.

The Bettor Mark fired an official half-unit on the Nationals at +185, calling it the most mispriced number on Friday’s board. He trusts Jake Irvin more than the betting market does and thinks Arizona is entering a "fade territory" stretch despite Merrill Kelly’s solid surface stats (5–2, 3.52 ERA). Mark pointed to Washington’s right-hand-heavy lineup metrics—top-10 in wRC+ versus righties over the last 14 days—and noted that Chase Field’s humidor has played more neutral this season, which lessens Arizona’s usual home-field run suppression. He expects a competitive duel early but believes the Nats’ bullpen gives them a viable path to steal it late.

The Bettor Mark leaned hard toward backing the Tigers at -118 because Casey Mize has quietly been dealing (6–1 record, 2.45 ERA). He contrasted that with Seth Lugo’s uneven 2025 (Lugo’s numbers were not given, but Mark said he is "not the Lugo of last year"). Chicago-style juice on a short road favorite is normally a red flag for Mark, yet he believes the market is still underrating Mize’s command and Detroit’s uptick in hard-hit rate over the past two weeks. With Kansas City only a slight +105 dog, he called the current money-line number "too short" and suggested locking in Detroit before the price drifts toward -130 once sharper action arrives.

Mark leaned to Over 9.5 runs in Braves–Red Sox. Summer humidity at Truist Park historically boosts carry, and Friday’s forecast is textbook sticky. Grant Holmes has been merely serviceable, Lucas Giolito is prone to blow-ups, and Ronald Acuna Jr.’s return reignited Atlanta’s lineup. Mark believes both teams can trade punches, projecting a "shoot-out" environment where double-digit runs are well within reach. He likes Atlanta on the money line too, but prefers the total given the offensive upside on both sides.

Mark advised taking the Mets at –1.5 runs (–150) rather than laying a prohibitive money line. David Peterson has been "absolutely phenomenal," and New York’s 34-22 record suggests the offense will eventually click. Kyle Freeland is 0-something on the year, and Colorado’s bats historically disappear away from Coors, leaving them vulnerable to a goose-egg. Mark projects a 5-1 or 6-1 type Mets victory and warns that an Over 7.5 exposes bettors to a possible Rockies shutout, making the run line the cleaner path.

Mark nearly made Cleveland –144 an official play, pointing to several factors. Renovations created wind tunnels that let the ball "fly out to right" during evening games at Progressive Field, and Friday’s weather sets up that exact scenario. Cleveland carries momentum after avoiding a sweep in Los Angeles, while the Angels are making an east-coast trip on short rest. With Ortiz and Soria on the bump, he expects plenty of offense and likes pairing the Guardians money line with the full-game total Over 8, believing both angles profit in the same high-scoring script.

Mark recommended laying the –1.5 run line with Philadelphia at +145. He cited two main edges: Milwaukee’s league-worst road hitting splits and a pitching matchup of Taijuan Walker versus Colin Hall that tilts toward the Phils. Philadelphia’s lineup typically “takes off at home,” and the Brewers could be flat in a travel-lull spot after a long trip. For bettors wanting a slightly safer angle, he mentioned the ‘Phillies to not bat in the 9th’ market, but the official stance is the plus-money run line.

The Bettor Mark backed Andrew Abbott and the Reds on the money line at +145 in Wrigley Field. He said Abbott has been "fairly impressive" this season and gives Cincinnati a clear pitching edge over the still-undecided Chicago starter. Because wind direction can turn Wrigley into either a launching pad or a dead zone, Mark likes grabbing the plus-money now, noting that a neutral or inward wind would only strengthen the Reds’ advantage. He framed it as a buy-low spot on a divisional dog that should control the mound, making the Reds his preferred side.

The Bettor Mark leaned over 8.5 runs at –115 in the Marlins-Angels nightcap (10:07 PM first pitch). He cashed the same over yesterday and sees no reason to abandon the spot even with Cal Quantrill and Jose Soriano both in good form. Mark believes the head-to-head matchup actually benefits the Angels’ offense, which he expects to break out against Quantrill’s sinker/slider mix. Rather than laying –165 on L.A., he prefers the total, reasoning that Miami’s contact-oriented lineup can chip in a few scores as well. He views any number 8.5 or lower as playable given the Angels’ bullpen volatility and a warm Saturday night in Anaheim.

Although Great American Ball Park screams offense, Mark strongly leans UNDER 9.5. Andrew Abbott owns a 1.80 ERA (3-0) and faces a solid-as-well Ben Rhea (2.38 ERA). Recent trend support: nine of the Reds’ last ten games (90%) have stayed below 9.5 runs, while the Cubs have produced 10+ runs only half the time in that span. With two in-form starters on the mound and both clubs familiar with tight, low-scoring affairs, Mark feels the market is over-reacting to park factors and sees value on the under.

The Bettor Mark targeted Kyle Schwarber to record at least one walk (Over 0.5 BB) at –145 on DraftKings. He noted that Schwarber has drawn a free pass in seven of his last ten games (70%) and, as the leadoff man, is guaranteed an extra plate appearance relative to teammates. Facing fellow left-hander Jeffrey Springs, Mark expects Oakland to pitch around Schwarber, especially early, citing the slugger’s elite strike-zone judgment. He even forecasted the possibility of a first-inning walk and is comfortable laying the juice given Schwarber’s recent discipline and Springs’ off-speed heavy approach that often misses the zone.

The Bettor Mark said the Dodgers are a lean at –102, calling it a "very, very cheap price" for a club coming off a breakout night at the plate. He trusts Tony Gonsolin’s 2-0 record and 4.05 ERA more than David Peterson on the other side and thinks yesterday’s rain-interrupted outburst shows the bats are waking up. Even though Peterson is a lefty, Mark is not worried about the left-on-left matchups—Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani have track records of handling same-side pitching. With L.A.’s lineup confidence high and a bullpen edge, he expects the Dodgers to prevail and would back the money line down to roughly –110.

Mark encouraged grabbing Max Fried in the Cy Young market now before the odds shorten further. Fried owns a pristine 6-0 record with a 1.29 ERA, sits top-five in both FIP and batting-average-against, and benefits from New York’s massive media footprint that historically sways voters. Mark noted that advanced metrics back the surface stats—Fried’s 28% K-rate and 4.8% walk-rate point to sustainable dominance—and believes his narrative of "ace who revived the Yankees’ rotation" will resonate with award voters. Any number longer than 4-1 is still "a very nice, viable option" in Mark’s eyes.

Mark bet Max Fried under 1.5 earned runs at +133 despite the Coors Field backdrop. Fried is 6-0 with a 1.29 ERA and has cashed this prop in 7 of his last 10 starts (70%). Colorado ranks bottom-three in wRC+ versus left-handers, and their current lineup owns just a .279 OBP at home. Mark acknowledged the park’s run-inflating nature but trusts Fried’s elite command and the Yankees’ improved defense to keep damage minimal. He views the plus-money price as the best angle to back Fried’s dominance.

Mark labeled it “Padres or nothing,” recommending San Diego –1.5 on the run line. He trusts Michael King’s 2.59 ERA and 4-2 record far more than Grant Holmes’ limited MLB track record. From an ROI standpoint, the Padres are 28-21 straight-up and 28-21 against the run line, while Atlanta is just 22-28 overall. Mark added that the Braves’ offense has struggled to string hits together, and San Diego’s lineup can "black out" on any given night. He expects the Padres’ bats to pressure Holmes early and sees plus-money upside laying the run and a half.

The Bettor Mark advised taking Grant Holmes under 4.5 strikeouts at plus-money. He pointed out that San Diego sits in the middle of the league in K-rate over the last seven days and has historically made contact against right-handers. Holmes has topped four punch-outs only once in his last four outings and rarely works past the sixth inning, limiting his volume ceiling. Mark expects the Padres’ left-heavy lineup to force early trouble and thinks four strikeouts is Holmes’ ceiling, making the under a +EV play.

Mark leans to Seattle at +102 behind Bryan Woo. He notes that 76% of the wagered handle has pushed the total down and public money is piling onto the Mariners, indicating widespread skepticism of Framber Valdez. Mark himself prefers Woo’s current form and likes catching plus money against an Astros squad he is comfortable fading right now, though he concedes Seattle’s road splits can be volatile. Still, with market support, a perceived edge on the mound, and an Astros lineup that has under-performed, the Mariners are his ‘correct side’ in Houston.

Mark labeled the Royals a “best bet” at +105 in Minnesota. His reasoning: Zebby Matthews has only one MLB start (3 IP, 4 ER) and the Twins lineup is shorthanded with Byron Buxton sidelined. Kansas City counters with Michael Wacha, whom Mark trusts more on the road than the rookie on the other side. He also does not trust the back half of the Twins’ bullpen and notes a classic zig-zag angle: Minnesota won yesterday, so he expects regression today. If KC’s bats wake up, Mark believes they can surpass their team total and cash the plus-money money-line.

The Bettor Mark backed Boston at –110, calling it “too cheap of a price at home.” He framed the wager as a two-pronged fade: (1) Zach Eflin gets the ball for Baltimore and Mark does not trust him in Fenway, and (2) the Orioles’ lineup has dropped four of its last five and just surrendered 19 runs to these same Sox. Conversely, Boston’s sticks are rolling—Rafael Devers belted two homers yesterday and the club has plated 19 runs in its last game. Mark sees no reason to step in front of that momentum and expects the Red Sox bats to stay hot while Eflin stumbles, making Boston the “correct side” on Saturday’s early game.

The Bettor Mark said the best way to attack Angels-Dodgers is to isolate Los Angeles’ National League club on the offensive side. He expects Clayton Kershaw’s first start of the season to be more of a 40- to 50-pitch tune-up, forcing the Dodgers’ bullpen to cover at least half the game. That extra relief exposure, combined with Tyler Anderson’s mediocre 4.71 ERA and .277 batting-average-against, sets the table for run production. Mark framed it as a classic zig-zag spot after the Dodgers’ quiet loss Friday, noting how their lineup has cashed a team-total over in 10 of the last 13 games immediately following scoring three runs or fewer. With winds neutral and no discount on the –240 moneyline, he prefers Dodgers team-total over 4.5 (widely available at –115) or pairing it with the run line for added plus money, expecting the bats to rally behind Kershaw’s return.

The Bettor Mark is riding San Diego to “not bat in the ninth” (essentially Padres ML) at ‑125 after last night’s 5-1 dud versus Seattle. He called the Friars one of 2025’s best ROI clubs and expects an immediate zig-zag correction against rookie right-hander Emerson Hancock. Nick Pivetta—traded west in April—gets the start for San Diego and should stretch deep enough to protect a late lead against a strikeout-prone Mariners lineup. Mark suggested adventurous bettors could pair the play with a run line or Padres team total, but his official wager is the no-bottom-of-the-ninth prop, a market DraftKings posts for all home teams.

The Bettor Mark advised taking Tyler Mahle under 5.5 hits allowed at ‑135 in the Battle of Texas. Mahle owns a 4-1 record with a sparkling 1.47 ERA and this specific prop has cashed in 8 of his last 10 starts (80%). He has already muzzled elite offenses at Globe Life Field—two hits versus the Dodgers, one versus Tampa Bay, two versus Boston—showing the park plus his rising splitter can neutralize even potent lineups. Mark acknowledged Houston’s pop but noted the Astros looked sluggish last night and often start slowly in early-afternoon road spots. He is comfortable to ‑140 but would pass once the juice climbs beyond that level, expecting five strong innings and no more than five knocks allowed.

The Bettor Mark suggested betting Zack Wheeler under 1.5 earned runs allowed at +105. Outside of back-to-back blips against Atlanta and St. Louis, Wheeler has surrendered one run or fewer in every start since early April. The Pirates offense sits bottom-five in wRC+ and has produced more than two runs against a right-handed starter only once in its last seven games. Wheeler’s strikeout stuff (30 % K-rate) should keep traffic minimal, and Philadelphia’s spacious park further suppresses homers. Mark’s only caution was Wheeler running a pitch count deep into the 7th, which could create a late back-door blooper, but he still expects 6-plus innings of one-run ball or better.

The Bettor Mark leaned to the Mets moneyline at +115 in Game 2 of the Subway Series. He likes the "zig-zag" narrative after the Yankees got their revenge Friday in a 6-2 win and believes New York’s National League club owns the better mound matchup: rookie right-hander Griffin Canning brings a 5-1 record and 2.36 ERA into Yankee Stadium opposite Clark Schmidt. Mark also cited the short porch and winds blowing out to left, factors that can mitigate Schmidt’s solid strike-throwing profile. With the Mets bats heating up and the plus price attached, he labeled the Amazins a "live short underdog" worth a sprinkle.

The Bettor Mark locked in the Chicago Cubs team-total over 5.5 runs at ‑137 as one of his five best bets. He pointed to 20-mph winds howling out to center at Wrigley, a situation that historically turns routine fly balls into souvenirs. Chicago torched the White Sox for 13 runs Friday and even hung a six-spot in a single frame, showing their offense is alive and well. Saturday’s pitching matchup of Burke vs. Matthew Boyd offers little resistance, and Boyd has already given up five homers in his last three turns. Using Outlier’s prop screener he noted the better juice at 5.5 (-137) compared to 6.5 (+120), giving bettors an extra run of cushion. Despite a 30 % cash rate on this number in their last 10, Mark blamed Miami’s pitcher-friendly park for those misses and expects launch-angle fireworks in today’s ideal Wrigley environment.