THE MMA GURU forecasted Kevin Vallejos to steamroll Danny Silver in the opening round, cash a performance bonus, and line up a ranked opponent. Guru respects Silver’s grit but says he turns every fight into a low-level brawl; that approach failed to separate from borderline UFC talent. By contrast, Vallejos already proved he can thrive in that pacey, bloody style when he was only 21 on Contender Series and has since leveled up. Guru believes Vallejos possesses the speed, creativity, and power edge to overwhelm Silver early rather than get dragged into Silver’s coin-flip decisions. A Vallejos Round 1 KO/TKO prop is the recommended angle.

THE MMA GURU predicted an early submission for Austin Bashy against short-notice opponent John Yannis. Yannis, who took the fight on a week’s notice and has multiple regional losses, "is not UFC level" in Guru's eyes and still has to make weight. Bashy, once 13-0 before running into prospect-killer Christian Rodriguez, has enjoyed a full camp aimed at stronger foe Francis Marshall. Guru expects Bashi to mix strikes, shoot quickly, take the back and secure a rear-naked choke inside five minutes. He recommended betting Bashy inside-the-distance, especially the round-one submission prop.

THE MMA GURU predicted Tatsuro Taira will finish Hiansung Park by rear-naked choke in Round 2. He cited Taira’s ability to dominate high-level grapplers, noting that Taira controlled Brandon Royval’s back for an entire round despite Royval’s scramble-heavy style. Guru argued Taira can impose his grappling no matter the opponent, while Park would have needed a camp specifically built to neutralize that threat—and likely did not have one. Because opponents must react to Taira rather than dictate terms, Guru expects the Japanese prospect to secure back control quickly and end the fight. He acknowledged a Park upset is possible but labeled Taira the rightful favorite and a strong money-line or parlay anchor for UFC Vegas 108.

THE MMA GURU forecasted a round-two submission for Tatsuro Taira against Hyunsung Park. Park accepted the main event on short notice after prepping for a striking opponent, while Taira has been in camp for well-rounded contender Amir Albazi. Guru highlighted that both fighters dominated Carlos Hernandez, yet Taira just went the distance with Brandon Royval and repeatedly secured back control—proof his grappling holds up at elite level. Because Taira relentlessly hunts the backpack position, the analyst believes a full camp is mandatory to counter his chains, something Park does not have. Coming off his first loss, Taira is “humbled and hungry,” and Guru expects him to drag Park down, take the back, and seal the choke midway through round two. Betting angle: Taira moneyline and R2 submission prop.

THE MMA GURU predicted Mateusz Rebecki scores a first-round TKO over Chris Duncan. Duncan’s recent wins came via opportunistic guillotines, but Guru argued Rebecki’s stocky, no-neck frame makes that choke unlikely. Rebecki has tightened his cardio since fading against Carlos Diego Ferreira—he managed pace far better in the Matek Orobley bout—and brings a 19-2 record plus legitimate one-punch power. The tout expects the southpaw’s faster hands and cleaner footwork to light Duncan up on the feet; despite training at ATT, Duncan still absorbs big shots every fight. Guru thinks Rebecki’s compact power will crack the Scot early and end it inside five minutes. Suggested wagers: Rebecki moneyline and KO-1 prop.

THE MMA GURU said he is backing Esteban Ribovics to finish Elves Brener in round two or three. Brener enters on a two-fight skid capped by a brutal TKO, so Guru doubts his ability to absorb the early kitchen-sink assault Ribovics always throws. Ribovics is a proven fast starter yet still had enough gas to unload a 100-strike combo in round three versus Daniel Zellhuber and set volume records in the Nasrat Haqparast fight. Guru noted that Brener has shown visible fatigue in past third rounds, while Ribovics has never looked gassed. The analyst concluded that if Brener does not score a shock first-round punch, Ribovics’ pace and power will overwhelm him for a late TKO or at worst a 29-28 decision. Recommended bet: Ribovics moneyline with a sprinkle on round-2/3 KO props.

THE MMA GURU leaned toward Esteban Ribovics, reasoning that Elves Brenner enters on two brutal losses—one-sided beatings from Mateusz ‘Mitak’ Baczynski and Joel Alvarez—which could erode his durability. Ribovics is a notorious first-round flamethrower who throws the kitchen sink early and owns legitimate one-shot power. The Guru once rated Brenner highly after the Guram Kutateladze upset, but that win has aged poorly as Guram slipped in the rankings. Given Ribovics’ ability to cause damage immediately and Brenner’s recent wear-and-tear, the tout doubts Brenner can weather the initial onslaught. Expect Ribovics to swarm for an early KO/TKO; betting angles include Ribovics Round 1 plus any under 1.5 totals.

THE MMA GURU sided with Karol Rosa as an underdog against Nora Canunn, forecasting a 29-28 split-decision type outcome. Rosa has gone competitive with established names such as Norma Dumont and Irene Aldana and owns a win over perennial contender Yana Kunitskaya. By contrast, Canunn’s best victory is over Hailey Cowan, and she recently dropped a close one to Jacqueline Cavalcanti—hardly elite bantamweight benchmarks. Rosa’s experience in three-round wars, plus her well-rounded skill set, should allow her to steal the marginal rounds with clinch control and higher volume boxing. Canunn hasn’t shown the clear athletic separation that Natalia Silva displayed on her own rise, so the Guru expects the step up to be a bit too soon. Bettors looking for plus money on a veteran decision prop should consider Rosa.

THE MMA GURU said Kevin Vallejos will finish Danny Silver inside two rounds. He pointed to Vallejos’ obvious skill advantages: sharper boxing, cleaner footwork, and far better distance management. Vallejos routinely slips first contact and counters with three-and-four-piece combinations, whereas Silver gets stuck in pocket exchanges and eats damage before firing back. The Guru noted Vallejos’ willingness to rip the body on the shorter man and then come upstairs, plus a proven chin and effective low-kick game. Silver is durable and possesses solid cardio, but the tout sees no single area where Silver can exploit a hole – Vallejos is simply “more talented.” With both fighters likely to keep it standing, that talent gap should snowball quickly. Prediction: Vallejos TKO, late R1 or early R2, cashing any inside-the-distance or KO/TKO prop.

THE MMA GURU called Nathan Fletcher a live dog to win 29-28 over Rinya Nakamura. Guru argues Nakamura is a one-dimensional control wrestler who offers little ground-and-pound or submission threat; that low-damage style courts trouble with modern judging. He flagged red-tape losses and shaky performances: getting "fraud-checked" by Muin Gafurov and stalling out versus 37-year-old Carlos Vera. Fletcher, despite a split loss to Caolan Loughran, brings more complete jiu-jitsu and willingness to strike. Guru envisions Nakamura securing takedowns but eating elbows, knees, and constant sub attempts that pile visible damage. He expects judges to favor Fletcher’s offense and picks the Englishman at sizeable underdog odds.

THE MMA GURU predicted Rodolfo Vieira will tap Trayshon Gore in Round 2. Gore was dropped three times and TKO’d by Marco Tulio only four months ago, a turnaround Guru calls "not enough" after that damage. Guru notes Gore’s offense is basically stationary boxing plus a jump-guillotine he used on Josh Fremd, but that guillotine plays straight into Vieira’s world-class jiu-jitsu. He expects Vieira either to finish traditional takedowns or bait the guillotine, pass to side control, and hunt an arm-triangle. Guru pointed out Vieira went three striking rounds with Chris Curtis and arm-triangled Armen Petrosyan, showing both durability and finishing chops. Because Gore has already been finished multiple times and struggles with grapplers, Guru advises a prop on Vieira by submission, especially Round 2 for extra value.

THE MMA GURU said Andre Pulyaev is the side to bet because Nick Klein fought "like a scared man" against Mansour Abdul-Malik – staying low, refusing to follow up after rocking him, and hoping for a fluke mistake rather than creating offense. According to Guru, that timid performance in front of Dana White is a red flag when stepping in with Pulyaev, who he views as the more well-rounded and naturally aggressive fighter on both the feet and the mat. Klein does have serviceable grappling, but Guru believes Pulyaev’s willingness to engage and broader skill set will decide the fight, making the Russian a live money-line play.

THE MMA GURU sided with Andre Pulyaev, calling him a live underdog against Nick Klein. He highlighted Pulyaev’s six-foot-four frame, rangy kickboxing, solid cardio and serviceable takedown defence shown versus Christian Leroy Duncan. In contrast, Guru thought Klein looked visibly "scared" during his Contender Series bout with Mansour Abdul-Malik, staying low and failing to capitalize after wobbling his foe. He expects Klein to land a couple of takedowns but predicts Pulyaev wins the prolonged striking exchanges and edges a decision. Guru advised grabbing the plus-money moneyline or Pulyaev-by-decision ticket.

THE MMA GURU backed undefeated Rafael Estevam to out-grapple Felipe Bunes and win 29-28. Estevam is 13-0, took the Charles Johnson fight on short notice, and even missing weight there was framed by Guru as a built-in size advantage that could repeat this week. Guru expects Estevam to chain takedowns, secure back control and threaten submissions while Bunes—who was "messed up" by Joshua Van—struggles off his back. He did caution that Estevam’s low damage output can invite a tough third round, but projected the first two frames to be dominant enough for a comfortable decision. Bettors were urged to trust Estevam straight up and consider decision props.

THE MMA GURU said Ketlen Souza will defeat Piera Rodriguez, most likely by stoppage before the start of round three. He noted Souza has already beaten better prospects, reminding listeners of her knockout of highly touted Yazmin Jauregui, whereas Rodriguez was recently out-grappled and submitted by Gillian Robertson. Rodriguez’s last win came against striker Josefine Knutsson, a matchup that did not test her defensive wrestling. Guru believes Souza’s experience, takedown defence and heavier hands give her clear advantages and expects the Brazilian to put "hands on" Rodriguez early. He advised bettors to play Souza moneyline and sprinkle an early-finish prop.

THE MMA GURU doubled-down on his upset pick but got more granular, recommending bettors target the Reinier de Ridder submission prop specifically in Round 2 or Round 3. He emphasized de Ridder’s 6'4" frame and 78-inch reach, noting Whitaker has historically struggled when foes combine size, physicality and unorthodox attacks— the exact trio that toppled him against Dricus Du Plessis. Guru also flagged Whitaker’s catalog of injuries: reconstructed jaw after Khamzat Chimaev collapsed his lower teeth, multiple abdominal hernias and a recent dental overhaul. Meanwhile, de Ridder is “in his prime,” carrying momentum from a dominant win over Bo Nickal in which he reversed Nickal’s takedown and out-grappled the collegiate legend. Add the GM3 submission on his resume and Guru sees de Ridder eventually dragging Whitaker into clinch exchanges, landing elbows to force a scramble, then slipping to the back for a rear-naked choke. He expects Whitaker to be competitive early—maybe even snatching Round 1—before the size and grinding top pressure break him late in the second or sometime in the third. Suggested action: de Ridder ML, but especially de Ridder by submission in R2/R3 at plus money.

THE MMA GURU took a swing at the underdog, predicting Reinier de Ridder will upset Robert Whittaker in Abu Dhabi. He argued Whittaker historically struggles when opponents can both *out-physical* him and bring awkward, "clumsy" offense—citing Driscus Du Plessis steam-rolling the former champion. De Ridder, a 6'4" southpaw with a sizable reach edge, checks both boxes and owns championship reps in ONE. Guru pointed to de Ridder’s ability to bully opposition in the clinch, chain takedown attempts into leg-lock rolls, or simply knee the body until the fencing collapses—exact pressure Whittaker dislikes. He also flagged Whittaker’s recently reconstructed jaw after Khamzat Chimaev caved in his lower teeth, questioning the Aussie’s durability only eight months removed from major dental surgery. Meanwhile, de Ridder rides momentum from comprehensively out-grappling Bo Nickal, a result Guru says proves "prime RDR" can dictate where the fight happens. Expect de Ridder to drag Whittaker into clinch battles early, mix trips with wild pocket exchanges, then secure top position and either submit a weary ‘Bobby Knuckles’ late or win a grinding decision. Suggested bets: De Ridder money-line plus sprinkle submission prop.

THE MMA GURU forecasted a vintage Petr Yan performance, calling for a 29-28 (possibly 29-27) decision over Marcus McGhee in their three-round Abu Dhabi bout. Guru expects McGhee’s size and slick boxing to steal the first round, but stressed that bantamweight has steep "barrier-reef" tier drops and Yan occupies a level McGhee has never reached. He noted that McGhee’s best win is a narrow 29-28 over Jonathan Martinez, a result Guru called flimsy given Martinez immediately found the answer with low kicks and then coasted. By contrast, Yan has already out-classed elite names—dominating prime Jose Aldo, going life-and-death with Cory Sandhagen, and surviving Sean O’Malley’s best looks. Guru added that Yan actually *speeds up* in three-rounders, “condensing his work” instead of starting slow like in five-round title fights. He believes Yan’s high-guard boxing, punishing low kicks and body work will begin to snowball late in Round 2, forcing McGhee backward and possibly flirting with a 10-8 or late finish in Round 3. Betting angles he implied: Yan money-line, Yan by decision, and live-betting the Russian if he drops the first frame.

THE MMA GURU dismissed Marc-Andre Barriault as a "lay-up" for Shara Magomedov and forecasted a flashy KO, probably a lead head-kick off the back foot. Barriault’s game—high-volume pressure with almost no one-shot power or consistent takedown threat—plays directly into Magomedov’s wheelhouse of sniping kicks and counters while moving backward. Guru noted that even the more dangerous, power-punching Michal Oleksiejczuk couldn’t survive that style against Magomedov on the regional scene, whereas Barriault rarely stiffens anyone despite relentless forward motion. Because Barriault can’t credibly threaten wrestling, Magomedov will be free to set traps, chop the legs, and time Barriault’s linear entries. Guru compared the potential finish to Ian Garry’s fade-away head-kick versus Jordan Williams, calling Magomedov an "industry plant" the promotion clearly wants to showcase. Recommendation: bet Magomedov KO/TKO and consider a head-kick specific prop if your book posts one.

THE MMA GURU called for Jose Ochoa to upset Asu Almabaev by first- or second-round finish. He argued Almabaev’s wrestling numbers are inflated by beating "split-decision merchants" like Matheus Nicolau and a lanky Contender Series opponent who was massive for flyweight but low-level. Ochoa, by contrast, nearly toppled Lona Kavanagh on short notice and just dismantled relentless grappler Cody Durden without absorbing damage, giving him a full camp of reps against the exact style Almabaev brings. Guru highlighted Ochoa’s six-inch reach edge, rangy body work that nearly folded Kavanagh, and slick guard attacks that forced Durden to bail on shots. Almabaev is stepping in against a completely different frame after training for squat, stocky Ramazan Bektemirov, and Guru thinks the Kazakh looks small for 125. Expect Ochoa to keep the fight at kicking range, sting Almabaev coming in, and swarm for a TKO or club-and-sub once the first big shot lands. Guru likes Ochoa ML, Ochoa ITD, and the under 2.5 rounds.

THE MMA GURU predicted Bogdan Guskov will starch Nikita Krylov inside the first two rounds. Guru hammered three angles: (1) Krylov was flat-lined by Dominick Reyes only a few months ago and is rushing back far too quickly, a red flag he "will never back in a bettor." (2) Krylov’s trademark wild, loopy exchanges leave his chin hanging, whereas Guskov is a patient sniper who finds the chin once he settles in. Guru pointed to Guskov walking through Ryan Spann’s bombs and then bullying him, plus forcing Billy Elekana to mentally quit after round-one success, as evidence the Uzbek can absorb heat and keep coming. (3) Guskov’s calm pocket defense and head-movement should punish Krylov’s frantic blitzes. Add in the geopolitical distractions and long layoffs that have plagued Krylov’s camp, and Guru sees multiple knockdowns before a round-one or early round-two TKO. He advised money-line shots on Guskov, Guskov ITD, and sprinkling the KO prop.

THE MMA GURU backed Bryce Mitchell to upset Said Nurmagomedov by decision. He acknowledged Mitchell’s guillotine scare versus Ilia Topuria but trusts Mitchell’s camp will drill entries, knowing Nurmagomedov sports one of the nastiest front-choke games in the division (quick taps of Cody Stamann and Saidyokub Kakhramonov). Guru believes Mitchell’s size advantage dropping to bantamweight, coupled with relentless chain-wrestling, will sap Nurmagomedov’s cardio—something Jonathan Martinez already exposed by bullying him with low kicks and fence pressure. He thought Mitchell’s boxing actually looked serviceable before the Topuria choke attempt and expects Nurmagomedov’s spinning attacks to leave him off-balance for takedowns. The forecast: Mitchell survives early choke threats, racks up top time in Rounds 2 and 3, and takes a 29-28 on the cards. Guru likes the Mitchell money-line and the Mitchell-by-decision prop as value plays.

THE MMA GURU predicted Carlos Leal will steamroll 40-year-old Muslim Salikhov, finishing with a clinch-heavy TKO in Round 2. Salikhov’s highlight-reel spinning kicks no longer scare Guru—Randy Brown recently flattened him, and Salikhov rarely threatens takedowns despite the ‘King of Kung Fu’ nickname. Leal, meanwhile, is a "monster" who shoved Alex Morono against the fence and broke him with dirty boxing; PED suspensions aside, Guru views that physicality as a feature here. Leal owns a small reach edge but, more importantly, pressures nonstop, nullifying Salikhov’s kicking range and forcing pocket exchanges where the Dagestani’s hands are slower. Guru envisions Leal grabbing underhooks late in Round 1, sneaking in knees and body shots, then re-establishing the clinch early in Round 2 to pour on elbows and hooks until the ref steps in. He advised betting Leal’s money-line, Leal ITD, and the Under 2.5 rounds.

THE MMA GURU said Da'Mon Blackshear will put away Davey Grant in Round 2, most likely via a rear-naked choke or ground-and-pound TKO. Guru called Blackshear’s grappling "criminally underrated," citing the slick submission of Cody Gibson, a composed win over Liudvik Aletang, and a razor-close scrap with Mario Bautista that many scored for Blackshear. He likes Blackshear’s 3-inch reach and tighter boxing, noting the American defended well while marching Aletang backward. Grant, by contrast, is 38, coming off neck surgery and long layoffs; Guru thinks “peak Davy” is gone. Grant’s knockout-or-bust overhands are easier to read, and his cardio has dipped—examples include being tagged badly by Lewis Smolka in Round 2 before rallying late. Guru expects Blackshear to absorb the early chaos, start chaining takedowns at the end of Round 1, and overwhelm a tiring Grant early in Round 2, making Blackshear a live betting and prop target for finish markets.

Guru reluctantly sided with Tabatha Ricci to edge Amanda Ribas via yet another controversial 29-28. He argues judges consistently gift Ricci close fights – citing perceived robbery wins over Angela Hill and Tecia Torres – and expects that trend to continue. Ribas’ durability is also a worry after multiple stoppage losses and a recent submission defeat to Mackenzie Dern. Even if Ribas lands takedowns, Guru doubts she can keep top control long enough, while Ricci’s sporadic bursts will impress the scorekeepers. Bottom line: in a likely split decision, the ‘industry plant’ Ricci again gets her hand raised.

For the third leg of his PrizePicks card, Guru is fading volume, projecting Marcus McGee to land FEWER than 72.5 significant strikes. He believes McGee’s power-punch approach and finishing instincts will keep the bout from turning into a high-paced kickboxing match, making 73 lands unlikely.

Guru’s second PrizePicks angle is Bogdan Guskov to land MORE than 15.5 significant strikes. He expects Guskov’s forward-moving power boxing and willingness to brawl to guarantee volume early, and believes the matchup forces enough exchanges that 16 connections is a very low bar.

THE MMA GURU picked Marcus Buccecha to tap Martin Buday in the opening frame. He stressed Buccecha’s absurd grappling pedigree – multiple-time ADCC and IBJJF world champion and a Hall-of-Famer – and noted that the Brazilian heavyweight has already logged five MMA wins against opponents with winning records in ONE. Guru liked that Buccecha showed real toughness in his lone loss to the steroid-sized wrestler Rug Rug, eating heavy shots yet still threatening on the mat. Buday, by contrast, is a flat-footed pressure plodder who needs to come forward to be effective, a style that exposes his hips to Buccecha’s “nasty double-leg.” Guru expects the first clean level change to put Buday on his back, where he will be “cooked,” predicting an immediate transition to leg entanglement or mount and a tap inside five minutes.

THE MMA GURU urged bettors to hammer the Round-1 knockout prop on Ilia Topuria after listening to Thursday’s press conference. Guru noted Topuria slipped the phrase "I’m going to kill him in Round One" into nearly every answer and even told media that Oliveira will "wake up on the floor." Guru argued those statements reveal the same kill-or-be-killed mindset that produced quick finishes of the last two "legends" Topuria fought, and that he would rather talk about ending the fight early than field questions about future match-ups. In contrast, Oliveira spent the presser promising only an "entertaining scrap," a tone Guru framed as acceptance of any outcome rather than a demand to dominate. Given Topuria’s 14-0 record with 12 finishes and his public insistence on an opening-frame stoppage, Guru believes the best value on the board is Topuria by KO/TKO in Round 1, a market currently sitting at plus money at most books.

THE MMA GURU said Ilia Topuria holds a decisive psychological advantage over Charles Oliveira going into UFC 317. Guru noted that Oliveira explicitly stated at the press conference, "I don’t want to finish him, I just want to win," while Topuria talked only about destroying and finishing his opponent. Guru argued that Topuria’s unbeaten record, ever-growing composure, and finish-or-bust mindset create a super-power level of confidence that should translate to an aggressive fight plan aimed at a stoppage. Conversely, Oliveira’s more conservative goal of simply securing a decision win signals a willingness to play it safe, which Guru believes will allow Topuria to dictate pace, keep pressure, and eventually find the finish. Bettors looking at money-line or inside-the-distance props should, according to Guru, favor Topuria, as the Spaniard’s mentality to not just win but finish gives him the edge.

THE MMA GURU predicted Joaquin Buckley will stop Kamaru Usman by fourth-round TKO in Atlanta. He expects Buckley’s constant lateral movement, stance switching and calf-kicks to rack up an early lead while Usman trudges forward behind the same 1-2, front-kick template that once worked when he habitually fought from ahead. Guru argued Usman’s momentum-based style has eroded—nearly 1,000 days without a win—and his surgically worn knees limit the grind-heavy fallback plan that bullied Masvidal, Woodley and others. Because Buckley is the rare welterweight who can match Usman’s physical strength and carries true KO pop, Guru doubts the former champ will be able to muscle him to the fence or bank control minutes. Instead, he foresees Buckley edging rounds one and two with volume, wobbling Usman repeatedly in round three as desperation takedowns fail, then pouring on strikes until the referee waves it off midway through the fourth. Recommended bets: Buckley moneyline, Buckley inside-the-distance, or Buckley Round 4 props.

THE MMA GURU laid out a straightforward path for Rose Namajunas to cruise past Miranda Maverick by unanimous decision. He called the matchup a ‘mismatch’ in pure skill: Rose owns sharper boxing, slicker kicking combinations and more varied submission threats. While Maverick brings physical strength and top-position grappling, Guru noted Rose’s underrated defensive wrestling—she stuffed most of Manon Fiorot’s shots before breaking her hand—and added that Namajunas actually carries decent size at flyweight. Guru expects Rose to manage distance with jabs and low-kicks, scramble out of the few takedowns that land, and consistently win minute-to-minute exchanges en route to 30-27 scorecards. Suggested angle: Rose by decision or include her moneyline as a parlay stabiliser.

THE MMA GURU predicted Andre Petroski will survive Edmen Shahbazyan’s early burst, then drown him with chain wrestling and tap him with an arm-triangle in round three. Guru conceded Shahbazyan is the ‘better martial artist’—sharper boxing, faster hands, more pop—but said that hardly matters if Petroski forces takedown scrambles every 30 seconds. Shahbazyan has gassed and made fatal grappling errors against Gerald Meerschaert and others, whereas Petroski toughed out bad spots versus the same Meerschaert and reclaimed top position. Even though Petroski has been knocked out by “an imaginary hip” (a freak body-shot KO) and flash-finished by Michel Pereira, Guru believes a relentless double-leg template will expose Edmen’s cardio cliff again. The betting takeaway: play Petroski submission props or Petroski Round 3 at plus money instead of the pick ’em moneyline.

THE MMA GURU backed Raoni Barcelos to spoil Cody Garbrandt’s latest comeback bid, projecting either a clear decision or a ground-and-pound TKO in round two. Guru argued Garbrandt’s issues are baked into his DNA, not the result of one injury: he was flat-lined on the regional scene, repeatedly makes the same defensive mistakes (exposing his back, throwing off-balance low-kicks while retreating) and has pulled out of multiple fights with nagging setbacks. Barcelos, meanwhile, is still competing with killers—he dropped Timur Valiev hard enough to warrant a 10-8, and recently “fraud-checked” the explosive Peyton Talbott. Guru trusts Barcelos’ seasoned shot-selection, heavy calf-kicks and opportunistic top control to punish Garbrandt once the exchanges turn honest, saying, “I just can’t logically pick Garbrandt to win a fight in 2025.”

THE MMA GURU picked Rodolfo Bellato to finish Paul Craig in the opening round. He said Craig’s offensive intent has vanished—“sometimes I watch him and wonder where the game plan is.” Guru doubts Craig’s durability at 205 and thinks Bellato’s size and striking power will expose that chin quickly. Bellato has been drilling grappling sequences with Luke Rockhold, a perfect look for Craig’s leg-entanglement style, so Guru isn’t worried about a surprise triangle. As long as Bellato avoids diving into top position the way Nikita Krylov did, Guru expects him to keep the fight standing, hurt Craig early, and pour on a TKO before the horn. He recommended Bellato ITD or Bellato Round 1 props rather than the moneyline.

THE MMA GURU likes Michael Chiesa to submit Court McGee in the opening half of the fight. He argued the UFC is giving Chiesa a ‘peaches-and-cream’ run of stylistically friendly opponents—Max Griffin, Tony Ferguson at 170, and now McGee, who is pushing his 40s. Chiesa’s A-game is a single-leg to backpack transition that aging, less explosive welterweights have struggled with for years. Guru pointed out that McGee’s near-losses to grapplers like Sean Brady and his grinding style make him especially vulnerable once Chiesa secures back control. Expect an early takedown, hooks in, and a rear-naked choke before Round 2 is over. Bettors should look at Chiesa by submission or Chiesa Round 1/2 props rather than the pricey moneyline.

Guru sided with Jose Ochoa despite Durden’s pace and durability. Ochoa flashed elite kill-shot instincts in his debut, stunning Lona Kavanaugh to the body and threatening slick submissions off scrambles. Durden historically struggles when opponents combine composure with real pop—Guru noted he “always has a problem” with fighters who can both strike and latch subs. Expect Ochoa to capitalize on Durden’s aggression with a counter or opportunistic choke, making the favorite price warranted.

THE MMA GURU predicted a first-round knockout for Malcolm Wellmaker, calling the matchup an ‘absolute mismatch.’ At 5'10 with explosive athleticism, Wellmaker outsizes and out-speeds Chris Matinho, who tends to shell up and walk forward in straight lines. Guru contrasted Wellmaker’s tight lead-hook—“the kind that spins the tip of your jaw”—with Sean O’Malley’s straighter punches that Matinho famously absorbed. He noted Matinho was rocked and finished by 43-year-old Guido Cannetti, suggesting Matinho’s granite-chin narrative is overblown. Wellmaker’s regional experience on Jorge Masvidal’s ICON cards and his highlight-reel KO of Cameron Saaiman bolster the case. Guru expects Matinho’s slow combinations to wander into a counter hook within the opening minutes, cashing Wellmaker ITD and supporting previous PrizePicks under-strike props on the prospect.

THE MMA GURU doubled-down on his earlier pick but got more granular, saying Jose Ochoa is live for a finish inside the first two rounds. He envisions Ochoa hurting Cody Durden with a left kick to the liver—Durden has been susceptible to body work in past bouts—then jumping on a guillotine or rear-naked choke when Durden shoots a panic takedown. Guru likes Ochoa’s ‘latch-him-up-out-of-nowhere’ finishing style (six finishes in seven wins) and referenced the prospect’s UFC debut where he buckled Lona Kavanaugh to the body before threatening submissions. Although he concedes there is some underdog value on Durden, he believes Durden’s volume grappling will simply hand Ochoa the transitions he needs to close the show.

Guru sees betting value on Ricky Simone as only a slight favorite. Simone just flatlined Javid Basharat and owns a finish of Raphael Assuncao, proving his pocket power. More importantly, he can lean on a wrestling-heavy game plan—an approach that exposed Smotherman in his recent loss to Suri City. Smotherman accepted the bout on a quick turnaround after absorbing damage, while Simone’s fundamentals and cardio travel well without a full camp. Guru projects Simone to bank early rounds through takedowns and top control, coasting to a 29-28 or 30-27 decision.

Guru predicts Phil Rowe inside the distance, likely by submission or TKO. He highlighted Lusa’s chronic issue of backing to the fence and allowing opponents to dictate terms. Rowe’s 80-inch reach and patient shot selection create windows to trap Lusa, the way he did vs Nico Price. Guru added that Lusa is "manhandle-able"—even mid-tier welterweights drag him into bad spots—and lacks fight-ending power to flip momentum. Look for Rowe to press him to the cage, force a desperate takedown, and cinch a D’arce or club-and-sub finish.

Guru played the UNDER 27.5 significant strikes for Malcolm Wellmaker. His logic: if the power-punching Wellmaker connects anywhere near 28 clean shots, Matinho’s notoriously hittable chin won’t hold up. Therefore, either Wellmaker finishes early—cashing the under—or Matinho survives by slowing the pace. Both scenarios fall short of the lofty strike total.