THE MMA GURU predicted Joaquin Buckley will stop Kamaru Usman by fourth-round TKO in Atlanta. He expects Buckley’s constant lateral movement, stance switching and calf-kicks to rack up an early lead while Usman trudges forward behind the same 1-2, front-kick template that once worked when he habitually fought from ahead. Guru argued Usman’s momentum-based style has eroded—nearly 1,000 days without a win—and his surgically worn knees limit the grind-heavy fallback plan that bullied Masvidal, Woodley and others. Because Buckley is the rare welterweight who can match Usman’s physical strength and carries true KO pop, Guru doubts the former champ will be able to muscle him to the fence or bank control minutes. Instead, he foresees Buckley edging rounds one and two with volume, wobbling Usman repeatedly in round three as desperation takedowns fail, then pouring on strikes until the referee waves it off midway through the fourth. Recommended bets: Buckley moneyline, Buckley inside-the-distance, or Buckley Round 4 props.

THE MMA GURU laid out a straightforward path for Rose Namajunas to cruise past Miranda Maverick by unanimous decision. He called the matchup a ‘mismatch’ in pure skill: Rose owns sharper boxing, slicker kicking combinations and more varied submission threats. While Maverick brings physical strength and top-position grappling, Guru noted Rose’s underrated defensive wrestling—she stuffed most of Manon Fiorot’s shots before breaking her hand—and added that Namajunas actually carries decent size at flyweight. Guru expects Rose to manage distance with jabs and low-kicks, scramble out of the few takedowns that land, and consistently win minute-to-minute exchanges en route to 30-27 scorecards. Suggested angle: Rose by decision or include her moneyline as a parlay stabiliser.

THE MMA GURU predicted Andre Petroski will survive Edmen Shahbazyan’s early burst, then drown him with chain wrestling and tap him with an arm-triangle in round three. Guru conceded Shahbazyan is the ‘better martial artist’—sharper boxing, faster hands, more pop—but said that hardly matters if Petroski forces takedown scrambles every 30 seconds. Shahbazyan has gassed and made fatal grappling errors against Gerald Meerschaert and others, whereas Petroski toughed out bad spots versus the same Meerschaert and reclaimed top position. Even though Petroski has been knocked out by “an imaginary hip” (a freak body-shot KO) and flash-finished by Michel Pereira, Guru believes a relentless double-leg template will expose Edmen’s cardio cliff again. The betting takeaway: play Petroski submission props or Petroski Round 3 at plus money instead of the pick ’em moneyline.

THE MMA GURU backed Raoni Barcelos to spoil Cody Garbrandt’s latest comeback bid, projecting either a clear decision or a ground-and-pound TKO in round two. Guru argued Garbrandt’s issues are baked into his DNA, not the result of one injury: he was flat-lined on the regional scene, repeatedly makes the same defensive mistakes (exposing his back, throwing off-balance low-kicks while retreating) and has pulled out of multiple fights with nagging setbacks. Barcelos, meanwhile, is still competing with killers—he dropped Timur Valiev hard enough to warrant a 10-8, and recently “fraud-checked” the explosive Peyton Talbott. Guru trusts Barcelos’ seasoned shot-selection, heavy calf-kicks and opportunistic top control to punish Garbrandt once the exchanges turn honest, saying, “I just can’t logically pick Garbrandt to win a fight in 2025.”

THE MMA GURU picked Rodolfo Bellato to finish Paul Craig in the opening round. He said Craig’s offensive intent has vanished—“sometimes I watch him and wonder where the game plan is.” Guru doubts Craig’s durability at 205 and thinks Bellato’s size and striking power will expose that chin quickly. Bellato has been drilling grappling sequences with Luke Rockhold, a perfect look for Craig’s leg-entanglement style, so Guru isn’t worried about a surprise triangle. As long as Bellato avoids diving into top position the way Nikita Krylov did, Guru expects him to keep the fight standing, hurt Craig early, and pour on a TKO before the horn. He recommended Bellato ITD or Bellato Round 1 props rather than the moneyline.

THE MMA GURU likes Michael Chiesa to submit Court McGee in the opening half of the fight. He argued the UFC is giving Chiesa a ‘peaches-and-cream’ run of stylistically friendly opponents—Max Griffin, Tony Ferguson at 170, and now McGee, who is pushing his 40s. Chiesa’s A-game is a single-leg to backpack transition that aging, less explosive welterweights have struggled with for years. Guru pointed out that McGee’s near-losses to grapplers like Sean Brady and his grinding style make him especially vulnerable once Chiesa secures back control. Expect an early takedown, hooks in, and a rear-naked choke before Round 2 is over. Bettors should look at Chiesa by submission or Chiesa Round 1/2 props rather than the pricey moneyline.

Guru sided with Jose Ochoa despite Durden’s pace and durability. Ochoa flashed elite kill-shot instincts in his debut, stunning Lona Kavanaugh to the body and threatening slick submissions off scrambles. Durden historically struggles when opponents combine composure with real pop—Guru noted he “always has a problem” with fighters who can both strike and latch subs. Expect Ochoa to capitalize on Durden’s aggression with a counter or opportunistic choke, making the favorite price warranted.

THE MMA GURU predicted a first-round knockout for Malcolm Wellmaker, calling the matchup an ‘absolute mismatch.’ At 5'10 with explosive athleticism, Wellmaker outsizes and out-speeds Chris Matinho, who tends to shell up and walk forward in straight lines. Guru contrasted Wellmaker’s tight lead-hook—“the kind that spins the tip of your jaw”—with Sean O’Malley’s straighter punches that Matinho famously absorbed. He noted Matinho was rocked and finished by 43-year-old Guido Cannetti, suggesting Matinho’s granite-chin narrative is overblown. Wellmaker’s regional experience on Jorge Masvidal’s ICON cards and his highlight-reel KO of Cameron Saaiman bolster the case. Guru expects Matinho’s slow combinations to wander into a counter hook within the opening minutes, cashing Wellmaker ITD and supporting previous PrizePicks under-strike props on the prospect.

THE MMA GURU doubled-down on his earlier pick but got more granular, saying Jose Ochoa is live for a finish inside the first two rounds. He envisions Ochoa hurting Cody Durden with a left kick to the liver—Durden has been susceptible to body work in past bouts—then jumping on a guillotine or rear-naked choke when Durden shoots a panic takedown. Guru likes Ochoa’s ‘latch-him-up-out-of-nowhere’ finishing style (six finishes in seven wins) and referenced the prospect’s UFC debut where he buckled Lona Kavanaugh to the body before threatening submissions. Although he concedes there is some underdog value on Durden, he believes Durden’s volume grappling will simply hand Ochoa the transitions he needs to close the show.

Guru sees betting value on Ricky Simone as only a slight favorite. Simone just flatlined Javid Basharat and owns a finish of Raphael Assuncao, proving his pocket power. More importantly, he can lean on a wrestling-heavy game plan—an approach that exposed Smotherman in his recent loss to Suri City. Smotherman accepted the bout on a quick turnaround after absorbing damage, while Simone’s fundamentals and cardio travel well without a full camp. Guru projects Simone to bank early rounds through takedowns and top control, coasting to a 29-28 or 30-27 decision.

Guru predicts Phil Rowe inside the distance, likely by submission or TKO. He highlighted Lusa’s chronic issue of backing to the fence and allowing opponents to dictate terms. Rowe’s 80-inch reach and patient shot selection create windows to trap Lusa, the way he did vs Nico Price. Guru added that Lusa is "manhandle-able"—even mid-tier welterweights drag him into bad spots—and lacks fight-ending power to flip momentum. Look for Rowe to press him to the cage, force a desperate takedown, and cinch a D’arce or club-and-sub finish.

Guru played the UNDER 27.5 significant strikes for Malcolm Wellmaker. His logic: if the power-punching Wellmaker connects anywhere near 28 clean shots, Matinho’s notoriously hittable chin won’t hold up. Therefore, either Wellmaker finishes early—cashing the under—or Matinho survives by slowing the pace. Both scenarios fall short of the lofty strike total.