For the main event Welch forecasted Du Plessis winning by fourth- or fifth-round TKO. He reasoned that Chimaev blitzes at full throttle and fades if he cannot secure an early finish, pointing to the Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman decisions. Du Plessis, riding a streak over Sean Strickland and Israel Adesanya, has shown he can gut through fatigue and outlast opponents. Welch believes surviving the initial eight-minute storm allows the champion’s pressure and ground-and-pound to take over late.

Welch picked Lerone Murphy to defeat Aaron Pico by decision. He cited Murphy’s 16-0 record, eight-fight UFC win streak, and victories over Josh Emmett and Edson Barboza. Welch believes Murphy’s slick footwork and composure under bright lights give him an edge over Pico, who is entering his first UFC stadium show. Unless Pico wrestles early, Welch expects Murphy to control distance and out-land for three rounds.

Welch predicted Jared Cannonier wins by decision over Michael "Venom" Page. He emphasized Cannonier’s heavy low kicks against Page’s sideways karate stance, saying “you feel it when he kicks your legs.” Welch also cited Cannonier’s granite cardio, experience across three weight classes, and a 3-2 run that includes a war with Gregory Rodrigues. Page’s counter-sniping scares him but he trusts Cannonier's pressure and leg damage to sway all three scorecards.

Welch played the PrizePicks over 3.5 takedowns for Khamzat Chimaev in the five-round title fight. He noted Chimaev "is gonna take you down when you fight" and with 25 minutes to work he only needs one takedown per round. Although he praised Du Plessis' scrambling, Welch believes Chimaev's relentless level changes will produce at least four completed shots.

Tim Welch said he is taking the PrizePicks "more" on 39.5 significant strikes for Alexander Hernandez against Chase Hooper. Welch called Hernandez an "explosive beast of an athlete" and thinks the matchup forces a stand-up battle because Hooper is primarily a jiu-jitsu scrambler. Over three rounds Welch expects Hernandez to sprawl, keep distance, and tee off, easily clearing forty landed strikes.

Tim Welch projected an easy win for Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez. He highlighted Holland’s four-inch height advantage and longer reach, calling Rodriguez a “decent southpaw” but ultimately “real sloppy.” Welch emphasized that Holland has “more tools,” specifically cleaner boxing and a proven willingness to mix in clinch work and grappling when needed. He pointed to the current betting line of Holland –455 as confirmation the market expects a one-sided fight and stated Holland will likely “walk through that guy” by peppering Rodriguez from range. Welch advised bettors to consider Holland in parlays or as a straight favorite despite the juice because the stylistic edge and recent activity—Holland fought on Sean O’Malley’s last card and stays in shape year-round—make an upset unlikely.

Tim Welch said he is siding with Max Holloway to defeat Dustin Poirier at UFC 318. Welch acknowledged that Poirier has already beaten Holloway twice, noting that “beating someone three times in a row is f***ing hard,” but laid out several reasons he expects a different result this time. First, the bout is at lightweight, which Welch believes will help Holloway’s durability: “His chin and body are gonna hold up way better at 155.” He contrasted this matchup with Holloway’s last fight, where Ilia Topuria’s featherweight power caught him clean. Welch also pointed out that this is Holloway’s first fight back after being knocked out, yet he still leans Holloway because Poirier won’t have a size advantage and Holloway’s legendary volume striking should add up over five rounds. Although he had not checked the betting line yet, Welch made it clear he would pick Holloway straight up to win, implying value if the odds are even or Holloway is an underdog.

Welch leaned toward Max Holloway in Poirier’s retirement fight. He noted Holloway is only 33, historically sturdier at lightweight, and training with southpaw boxer Keoni Diggs to mirror Poirier’s stance. Although Holloway was just KO’d by Ilia Topuria at 145, Welch believes the extra 10 lbs helps his chin and output. Poirier, 36, has traded wins and losses in his last four and may be more focused on a farewell performance. Welch sees Holloway’s cardio and volume carrying him to victory.

Welch expects Paulo Costa to knock out Roman Kopylov. Although Costa is 1-4 in his last five, those setbacks came against elite names like Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker. Costa has promised to return to the violent, walk-forward style that produced 11 KOs in his first 13 wins. Kopylov is 6-1 over his last seven with 12 career KOs, so Welch predicts a firefight where Costa’s explosive one-two power ends it inside the distance.

Welch picked Kevin Holland to beat Daniel Rodriguez, citing Holland’s 6'3" frame, 81" reach, and willingness to fight anyone anytime—already scheduling a fourth bout for 2025. Holland is 2-2 in his last four but coming off an anaconda choke of Vicente Luque, showing improved grappling. Welch thinks Holland’s length, confidence, and multi-discipline skill set will neutralize Rodriguez’s southpaw boxing.

Welch played the PrizePicks "less than 22.5 significant strikes in Round 1" for Roman Kopylov. He believes neither man will immediately plant in the pocket—expecting a cautious feeling-out process before the firefight breaks out in later rounds—so sub-23 strikes from Kopylov in the opener is the sharper side.

Tim Welch said to hit the PrizePicks "more than 112 significant strikes" line on Dustin Poirier for UFC 318. He re-watched the pair’s 2019 rematch and was reminded how both men happily ate leather for five rounds, noting they "beat the tar out of each other." Welch expects a similar back-and-forth boxing match in Poirier’s retirement bout, which should push Poirier’s volume north of the posted 112 mark even if he ultimately loses. The prop only counts Poirier’s strikes, so a competitive fight—with Holloway traditionally allowing high output—gives ample cushion for the over.

Tim Welch highlighted the PrizePicks fight-time line set at just 4:00 for Terrance McKinney’s clash with Viacheslav Borshchev and implied he still leans to the under. Welch reminded listeners that “when Terrence fights, you always know someone’s going to sleep,” pointing to McKinney’s trademark first-round blitzes and Borshchev’s own head-hunting striking style. With both men preferring all-offense and minimal defense, Welch expects a knockout or club-and-sub scramble almost immediately, making an inside-four-minutes prop—despite its tiny cushion—an appealing violence bet.

Tim Welch advised playing the PrizePicks Over 11-minute fight-time square for Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano. Welch noted that both men are high-level black-belt grapplers who can box, which usually produces longer feeling-out stretches rather than a frantic scramble. He does not see Moicano submitting Dariush early—Dariush has never been tapped in the UFC—and he doubts Moicano has the pure power to ice Benny in the opening rounds. Because neither fighter relies on wild exchanges and both are comfortable trading positions, Welch expects the bout to grind well into the second round before a finish is even on the table, making the 11-minute threshold a solid over bet.

Tim Welch said Charles Oliveira is a worthy underdog bet against Ilia Topuria at UFC 317. Welch acknowledged that Topuria is the "logical" favorite—he’s physically stout, hits like a truck, and is confident enough to follow Oliveira to the mat instead of waving him up. Even so, Welch believes several factors tilt this fight toward a potential Oliveira upset: • Oliveira’s recovery record—he routinely gets dropped but bounces back to finish, something bettors often overlook. • Topuria’s forward-pressure style means constant pocket exchanges; Welch thinks Oliveira’s tall stance sets up a flying knee or high-kick that could end the night. • If Topuria does follow him down, Oliveira’s submission arsenal (record UFC sub leader) turns knockdowns into offensive opportunities rather than liabilities. Welch framed it as a classic “head vs. gut” dilemma—his head says Topuria, yet his gut says ride the plus-money on Oliveira inside the distance because the Brazilian only needs one wild scramble or strike to cash.

Tim Welch picked Charles Oliveira to reclaim the lightweight belt by early-round TKO over Ilia Topuria. Welch acknowledged that Topuria’s upright stance, relentless forward pressure and punishing body work could swing the fight his way if it drags past the midpoint. However, he emphasized Oliveira’s immediate finishing weapons: marching knees up the middle, heavy head-kick chains, and what Welch called “the best guard in MMA” if things hit the mat. He referenced Oliveira surviving similar firefights and highlighted how one glancing knee or Herbert-style head-kick could end Topuria’s night before the Spaniard settles into his patient rhythm. Because both athletes prefer to back opponents up, Welch expects early chaos and believes Oliveira’s diverse striking bursts land first, producing a statement stoppage and a celebratory title scene in the Octagon.

Welch is backing flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja to beat Kai Kara-France by decision. Pantoja rides a seven-fight UFC win streak that includes wins over Moreno, Royval, Perez and Cape, and Welch believes the Brazilian’s combination of physical strength and elite back-taking grappling gives him multiple paths to bank rounds. Kara-France’s power and 12 KO wins make him live early, but Welch noted the New Zealander enters as a sizable underdog after a two-fight skid preceding his Steve Erceg knockout. Factoring in ATT’s game-planning, Pantoja’s championship confidence, and his ability to mix takedowns with long combinations, Welch expects a competitive but clear 48-47 or 49-46 decision for “The Cannibal.”

Welch predicted that 23-year-old prospect Joshua Van will stop Brandon Royval via TKO. He raved about Van’s four-fight UFC win streak, fluid footwork, and "nasty combos" that he throws in perfect balance. Van’s anti-wrestling impressed Welch in the Bruno Silva win, making him confident the youngster can keep Royval from turning the bout into chaotic grappling scrambles. While acknowledging Royval’s danger off his back and historically high pace, Welch thinks Van’s accurate counter-boxing will eventually catch the often-reckless "Raw Dog" coming in, leading to a mid-to-late stoppage and cementing Van as the division’s next title challenger.

Breaking down the main-card opener, Tim Welch ultimately sided with Renato Moicano by decision. He stressed how similar the 36-year-olds are—both high-level BJJ black belts and competent southpaw/orthodox kickboxers. The difference, Welch said, is momentum: Moicano’s only recent blemish is the short-notice Islam Makhachev loss, whereas Dariush is on a two-fight skid (finished by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan) and has been inactive for a full year. Welch expects the grappling to cancel out and sees Moicano’s cleaner boxing winning enough minutes to take a 29-28 type scorecard in what he labeled "a complete coin flip."

Welch took the PrizePicks UNDER on 90.5 significant strikes for Joshua Van. He argued that Van’s boxing is "almost too clean" for the scramble-heavy style of Brandon Royval. Because Royval will force clinches and grappling flurries, Welch doubts Van will have the sustained pocket time needed to approach 100 strikes in a 15-minute fight. He added that 90+ sig strikes is a tall ask even for high-volume flyweights, noting the prop translates to an average of six landed strikes per minute. With Van likely landing the more telling blows but in shorter, sharper combinations, Welch believes the under is the safer side.

Tim Welch said he is taking the PrizePicks square of “more than 11.75 minutes of fight time” in the Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano matchup. Welch expects both 36-year-old BJJ black belts to spend long stretches striking because each man respects the other’s submission chops. Dariush is coming off two quick defeats, which Welch thinks will make the southpaw more conservative, while Moicano’s recent five-fight run (before the Islam Makhachev loss) showed he can keep a measured pace for three rounds. Add in their comparable cardio and the likelihood that early grappling exchanges stall out in stalemates, and Welch projects the bout to reach at least the midpoint of round 3, easily clearing the 11.75-minute number.

Tim Welch emphasized that Sean O'Malley’s conditioning is peaking ahead of the expected clash with cardio-machine Marab Dvalishvili. Welch put O'Malley through a 27-minute grinder that averaged 184 bpm—peaking at 195—essentially a sustained VO2-max effort. Welch noted most high-level pros can’t hold that heart-rate zone for more than a few minutes, framing it as proof O'Malley can match or surpass Marab’s trademark pace. Because O'Malley is handling that intensity in camp, Welch expects Sugar to stay dangerous into the championship rounds, making him a live betting target for late-fight props (round 4/5 finish or decision) and an attractive side on the moneyline if early odds shade toward Marab’s wrestling.

Tim Welch said Reinier de Ridder is a legitimate future UFC champion worth buying early in the betting markets. Welch highlighted de Ridder’s 20-2 professional record, his run as a two-division ONE FC champ, and the fact he now sharpens his game at Kill Cliff alongside elite middleweights. Welch was impressed that de Ridder used Dutch-style knees from the clinch to fold three-time NCAA champ Bo Nickal, showing fight-stopping power to go with his already proven grappling chops. According to Welch, de Ridder has already been offered a top-15 opponent, and based on his well-rounded skill set—strong on the ground, dangerous on the feet—he expects the line to keep shortening on RDR in future bouts and even in the futures market for the 185-pound belt.

Welch forecasted that Belal Muhammad will retain the welterweight title by decision over Jack Della Maddalena. He highlighted Muhammad’s relentless pressure, high fight IQ, and versatile wrestling/boxing blend. Muhammad’s resume—wins over Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, and Stephen Thompson—demonstrates his ability to out-point elite opponents. Welch believes Muhammad will replicate that blueprint here: constant forward pressure, repeated takedown attempts, and clinch control that smothers Jack’s boxing and steals rounds on the judges’ cards.

Tim Welch chose Valentina Shevchenko to beat Manon Fiorot by decision. He pointed to Shevchenko’s previous nine-fight win streak, her blend of explosive striking and well-timed takedowns, and the championship-level poise she displayed in three straight bouts with Alexa Grasso. Although Fiorot rides a seven-fight UFC win streak, Welch thinks Shevchenko’s overall skill set and fight IQ let her control range, mix in grappling when needed, and bank rounds en route to another title defense.

Welch predicted Jose Aldo will defeat Aiemann Zahabi by decision at UFC 315. Although Aldo is 38, Welch cited Aldo’s elite fast-twitch power, Muay Thai stance, and arguably the quickest leg kick in MMA. He believes Zahabi will struggle to keep pace in extended striking exchanges, and that Aldo’s legendary takedown defense forces the fight to stay upright where Aldo’s speed and experience accumulate rounds on the scorecards.

Tim Welch is betting the PrizePicks line of more than 52.5 significant strikes for Jose Aldo. He expects an upright kickboxing battle where Aldo’s still-blistering hand speed and trademark calf kicks pile up volume. Zahabi is 37 and not the type of relentless wrestler who can pin Aldo to the fence the way Merab Dvalishvili did, so Welch projects enough stand-up time for Aldo to clear 53 landed strikes.

Welch is taking the under on 81.5 significant strikes for Manon Fiorot on PrizePicks. He reasoned that 25 minutes is a massive ask to land that many against Valentina Shevchenko, who historically mixes takedowns and clinch trips to slow opponents’ output. With Shevchenko likely to turn the bout into a full MMA fight rather than a pure kickboxing match, Welch doubts Fiorot will find the space or volume to touch 82 sig-strikes.

Tim Welch said he is hitting the PrizePicks prop that asks for more than 4.0 takedowns from Belal Muhammad in the UFC 315 title fight. Welch argued that Belal’s only smart path is heavy wrestling – he will not hang around in a pure boxing match with Jack Della Maddalena, whose best chance is to box. With 25 full minutes to work, Welch expects Muhammad to relentlessly chain-wrestle, sap Jack’s gas tank, and clear the 4-takedown mark the same way he did against Leon Edwards, Vicente Luque and Gilbert Burns. The pressure-first style, cardio, and historically elite control numbers make the over an easy bet in Welch’s eyes.

Welch forecasted that Belal Muhammad will retain the welterweight title by decision over Jack Della Maddalena. He highlighted Muhammad’s relentless pressure, high fight IQ, and versatile wrestling/boxing blend. Muhammad’s resume—wins over Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, and Stephen Thompson—demonstrates his ability to out-point elite opponents. Welch believes Muhammad will replicate that blueprint here: constant forward pressure, repeated takedown attempts, and clinch control that smothers Jack’s boxing and steals rounds on the judges’ cards.

Tim Welch chose Valentina Shevchenko to beat Manon Fiorot by decision. He pointed to Shevchenko’s previous nine-fight win streak, her blend of explosive striking and well-timed takedowns, and the championship-level poise she displayed in three straight bouts with Alexa Grasso. Although Fiorot rides a seven-fight UFC win streak, Welch thinks Shevchenko’s overall skill set and fight IQ let her control range, mix in grappling when needed, and bank rounds en route to another title defense.

Welch predicted Jose Aldo will defeat Aiemann Zahabi by decision at UFC 315. Although Aldo is 38, Welch cited Aldo’s elite fast-twitch power, Muay Thai stance, and arguably the quickest leg kick in MMA. He believes Zahabi will struggle to keep pace in extended striking exchanges, and that Aldo’s legendary takedown defense forces the fight to stay upright where Aldo’s speed and experience accumulate rounds on the scorecards.

Tim Welch is betting the PrizePicks line of more than 52.5 significant strikes for Jose Aldo. He expects an upright kickboxing battle where Aldo’s still-blistering hand speed and trademark calf kicks pile up volume. Zahabi is 37 and not the type of relentless wrestler who can pin Aldo to the fence the way Merab Dvalishvili did, so Welch projects enough stand-up time for Aldo to clear 53 landed strikes.

Welch is taking the under on 81.5 significant strikes for Manon Fiorot on PrizePicks. He reasoned that 25 minutes is a massive ask to land that many against Valentina Shevchenko, who historically mixes takedowns and clinch trips to slow opponents’ output. With Shevchenko likely to turn the bout into a full MMA fight rather than a pure kickboxing match, Welch doubts Fiorot will find the space or volume to touch 82 sig-strikes.

Tim Welch said he is hitting the PrizePicks prop that asks for more than 4.0 takedowns from Belal Muhammad in the UFC 315 title fight. Welch argued that Belal’s only smart path is heavy wrestling – he will not hang around in a pure boxing match with Jack Della Maddalena, whose best chance is to box. With 25 full minutes to work, Welch expects Muhammad to relentlessly chain-wrestle, sap Jack’s gas tank, and clear the 4-takedown mark the same way he did against Leon Edwards, Vicente Luque and Gilbert Burns. The pressure-first style, cardio, and historically elite control numbers make the over an easy bet in Welch’s eyes.

Tim Welch predicts Bryce Mitchell will comfortably defeat Jean Silva by decision, citing Mitchell's wrestling superiority. Silva, newer to UFC competition, showed serious defensive grappling gaps in previous fights and sparring footage, being repeatedly taken down and mounted. Welch sees Mitchell exploiting Silva's reckless striking, securing multiple takedowns, controlling rounds, and ultimately tiring him out, winning on the scorecards comfortably.

Tim Welch recommends confidently betting Bryce Mitchell to score more than 1.5 takedowns against Jean Silva. Welch analyzed Silva's public sparring videos, noting Silva was regularly taken down by Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts and Charles Jourdain, who aren't known as dominant wrestlers. Welch emphasized that Bryce Mitchell, an elite American wrestler, should easily exceed the 1.5 takedown line in a 15-minute fight, making it a straightforward DFS prop pick.

Tim Welch confidently recommended betting Julian Erosa to exceed 50.5 significant strikes against Darren Elkins. Welch emphasized Elkins' durability combined with susceptibility to significant punishment as an ideal matchup for Erosa, a skillful and rangy striker known for output. Given Elkins' tendency to absorb sustained striking and Erosa's accurate, high-volume kickboxing style, Welch sees this as an easy value pick to hit more than 50.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Tim Welch believes Yair Rodriguez is poised to KO Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire, highlighting a favorable stylistic matchup. Rodriguez has historically excelled against orthodox boxers, previously defeating fighters such as Chan Sung Jung, Jeremy Stephens, and Josh Emmett. Welch notes Pitbull is making his UFC debut as a shorter fighter (5'6) at age 37 after recent struggles, including being KO'd by Jihiri Suzuki. Rodriguez's significant reach and style advantages suggest he will have ample opportunity to land impactful strikes, resulting in a knockout victory.

Tim Welch picked Paddy Pimblett to defeat Michael Chandler citing multiple factors. Welch acknowledged Chandler is still powerful but has struggled severely in recent matchups against elite-level fighters, losing four of his last five fights. Welch pointed out Chandler's age (38) and believes that recent consistency and prime physical shape tip the scales towards Pimblett, who enters on a six-fight UFC winning streak. Though Welch expressed concern that Pimblett historically lifts his chin dangerously when pressured, he trusts improvements in Paddy's game, citing recent lifestyle improvements including reduced indulgences outside the octagon and newfound motivation from fatherhood. Welch ultimately sees Pimblett winning, likely by taking Chandler's back and submitting him.

Tim Welch is picking Diego Lopes to defeat Alexander Volkanovski by decision, noting Lopes enters the fight on a significant winning streak featuring quality victories over fighters like Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodiq Yusuff, Dan Ige, and Brian Ortega. Welch highlighted Lopes' significant height advantage, youth at 30 years old, and power boxing combined with considerable momentum against Volkanovski, who is aging at 36 and currently on a two-fight KO losing streak. This stylistic scenario favors Lopes to win by decision over five rounds.

Tim Welch recommended betting under 99.5 significant strikes for Alexander Volkanovski in his fight against Diego Lopes. Welch pointed out that Volkanovski typically lands high volume but believes Lopes' aggressive boxing style and heavy pressure will make it difficult for Volkanovski to reach 100 significant strikes. Lopes brings an aggressive style and power that will disrupt Volkanovski's usual striking rhythm over a five-round contest, making this an enticing option to bet the under.