Tokyo Brandon

Tokyo Brandon advised betting on Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks in the first five innings against the Yankees. Kelly has historically excelled against New York, holding Yankee hitters to a .180 average and .580 OPS in his career. He recently had a strong start, unlike opposing starter Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled in recent years. With Kelly maintaining solid form even at 36 and benefiting from Arizona's top-3 ranked offense by Brandon's metrics, Brandon sees value in taking Arizona at +0.5 runs for the first five innings at odds between -120 and -135, expecting Kelly to outperform Carrasco early.

Tokyo Brandon recommended betting against Yankees pitcher Carlos Carrasco in the first five innings when they face the Diamondbacks. Brandon emphasized that Carrasco, now 39 and having battled cancer, has significantly declined recently, with WHIP declining from a prime of around 1.00 to as high as 1.70 in recent seasons. Carrasco's season opener was particularly troubling: in just two innings against a struggling Milwaukee lineup, he allowed three earned runs and gave up a home run. Additionally, Carrasco last faced Arizona in 2024 and was hit hard, surrendering four earned runs in four innings. Considering Arizona ranks third in MLB offense per Brandon's metrics, he expects Carrasco to be vulnerable again early in the matchup.

Tokyo Brandon is strongly negative on Grant Holmes' prospects for success against the Dodgers, calling him a vulnerable and inexperienced pitcher who's accustomed only to short outings of three or four innings rather than extended appearances. Brandon underscores the dangerous position Holmes faces, as he squares off against a Dodgers team featuring arguably the best lineup in baseball history and a fully rested, potent batting order. He also expresses concern about Holmes' limited career experience and short track record, compounded by Atlanta’s weak bullpen behind him and team's winless early record. Brandon openly predicts Holmes will struggle significantly in this challenging spot.

Tokyo Brandon identifies betting value in Freddie Freeman exceeding 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs at -120 odds. Highlighting Freeman’s impressive start to the season, including consecutive games with a hit and home runs, Brandon emphasizes Freeman's dependability and Dodgers' potent lineup. With matchup conditions heavily favoring Dodgers batters against the inexperienced opposing pitcher Grant Holmes and the Braves' weak bullpen, Brandon confidently expects Freeman to deliver another productive outing, characterizing this prop as excellent value in consideration of Freeman's current momentum and strong surrounding lineup.

Tokyo Brandon sees clear betting value on Mookie Betts exceeding 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs at DraftKings with odds of -120. He mentions Betts as one of baseball's top pure hitters, fresh off a rest day and therefore likely primed for a strong performance. Brandon notes the Dodgers' offensive strength, their ability to generate ample run-scoring opportunities, and Betts' prime batting position. Given these factors and the Braves' current pitching struggles, Brandon labels this prop offering as an attractive bet worth taking advantage of.

Tokyo Brandon strongly recommends betting Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) at -140. Brandon emphasizes that Ohtani, consistently one of MLB’s top hitters, typically sees his HRR prop line set at 2.5, making the lower 1.5 line unusually valuable. Pointing out how prolific the Dodgers offense has been (averaging 6 runs/game and currently 5-0), Brandon expects Ohtani to capitalize against inexperienced Braves starter Grant Holmes and a struggling bullpen. He finds the current line of just 1.5 extremely favorable and plans to take advantage himself, seeing it as an excellent opportunity given Ohtani’s role in a potent Dodgers lineup.

Tokyo Brandon strongly supports backing Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers against the struggling Atlanta Braves. Glasnow has historically dominated Atlanta hitters, holding them to a .177 batting average, .507 OPS, and no home runs allowed over 62 at-bats. Brandon highlights that Atlanta enters this matchup 0-4 to start the season with a severely underperforming bullpen and is forced to start an inexperienced pitcher, Grant Holmes, known for short outings rather than extended starts. The Dodgers, on the other hand, boast a rested lineup he describes possibly as the best in MLB history, a deep bullpen, and flexibility in their pitching rotation. Given Glasnow’s past success versus Atlanta, paired with the Braves' travel fatigue and bullpen struggles, Brandon recommends multiple betting angles such as Dodgers moneyline (-220), Dodgers minus one run line (-180), and alternative prop bets like Dodgers score first and win (-120) and Dodgers race to three runs (-130). Brandon confidently asserts it's rare to get the Dodgers under -200, making these wagers particularly valuable.

Tokyo Brandon identified Jack Flaherty's strikeout prop of 4.5 strikeouts (available on DraftKings) as significantly undervalued, strongly recommending betting the over. Brandon modeled Flaherty for approximately 5.36 strikeouts against the Dodgers in this matchup—well above the listed line—and cited that historically Flaherty has averaged 6.34 strikeouts per start against these Dodgers hitters specifically. Although Brandon still expects Los Angeles to win and Flaherty to concede some runs, he sees considerable betting value in Flaherty surpassing the modest 4.5 strikeout line and made this his second pick for the game.

Tokyo Brandon recommended betting on the Dodgers money line in part due to Yoshinobu Yamamoto's significant improvement in his second year stateside. He explained that Japanese pitchers often face difficulties adapting to MLB, specifically adjusting to a different baseball, stadium environments, and power-hitting MLB lineups. Despite acknowledging Yamamoto's previous struggles under pressure in Japan and an initial shaky MLB outing last year against San Diego—where he surrendered five earned runs—Brandon highlighted Yamamoto's excellent performance against the Cubs earlier this season as proof of his improving mental game and acclimation to MLB. He anticipates Yamamoto will comfortably hold Detroit's bats in check, particularly noting he expects Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to let Yamamoto pitch deep into the game. Brandon's play on the money line simmers with the confidence in Yamamoto's elite pitching ability and his upward trajectory entering the 2025 season.