Strachan recommended buying low on Dolphins skill players because a leaky defense could force weekly track meets, mimicking the 2024 Bengals profile. Cincinnati finished 4th in offensive passing DVOA but a miserable 27th against the pass and 28th versus the run, which kept Joe Burrow & Co. throwing all four quarters and pumping out fantasy gold. Miami projects for a similar imbalance in 2025; if the defense struggles, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and company will be pushed into up-tempo, high-volume scripts that create slate-breaking ceilings in Weeks 15-17 best-ball playoffs.

Strachan cautioned that drafting Justice Hill for contingent upside is a trap. Hill will likely log the second-most snaps behind Derrick Henry, but Strachan argued the Ravens would form a committee rather than hand Hill a three-down workload if Henry misses time. Hill’s skill set and Baltimore’s historical two-back preference limit his ceiling, making him best viewed as occasional floor depth rather than an injury-based league winner. Drafters should focus their late-round bullets on backup RBs who can actually command bell-cow usage when chaos strikes.

Discussing FFPC’s 1.5-PPR for tight ends, Strachan highlighted Brock Bowers as the archetype who maximizes the format’s scoring quirks. In 2024 Bowers produced the 17th-most points of ANY non-QB skill player thanks to the bonus half-point per catch, while fellow volume TE Trey McBride ranked 28th. Because many tight ends lack target volume, only the true pass-catching alphas gain a material edge; drafting Bowers allows drafters to soak up WR-level production at a onesie position and differentiate lineups in playoff weeks.

Tom Strachan said pocket passers like Matthew Stafford can still win best-ball tournaments as long as you draft them with at least one receiving teammate. He pointed out that in 2024 there were 72 QB games of 25+ fantasy points; 35 of those featured 30+ rushing yards, so the 37 non-rushing blow-ups had to clear 300 passing yards, and 28 of them did. Strachan’s takeaway: if you bypass dual-threat QBs you must assume a 300-plus/3-TD type of day, which pulls pass-catchers up the leaderboard as well. A healthy 17-game Stafford paired with Rams receivers provides that correlated ceiling without having to pay the early-round price on rushing QBs.

Tom Strachan labeled Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins passing stack a 2025 buy-low because Miami’s defense projects to be leaky, creating weekly shootout scripts. He referenced Cincinnati’s 2024 profile—4th in offensive pass DVOA yet 27th against the pass and 28th against the run—as proof that poor defense can turbocharge fantasy volume. Strachan expects a similar dynamic in Miami, projecting elevated pass attempts and spike weeks for Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. He encouraged drafters to grab Dolphins stacks a round ahead of ADP before the market adjusts to the shootout narrative.

Tom Strachan warned that Justice Hill is a low-ceiling handcuff behind Derrick Henry and should not be drafted for upside alone. Although Hill is projected to play the second-most snaps in Baltimore, Strachan noted he lacks three-down size and the Ravens historically replace injured starters with committees rather than workhorses. Without a realistic path to 20-touch games, Hill offers little win equity in best ball. Strachan advised targeting contingency backs who can handle full workloads if the starter misses time instead of betting on Hill’s unlikely solo breakout.

Tom Strachan called Brock Bowers a cheat code in FFPC TE-premium best ball formats that award an extra 0.5 PPR to tight ends. Bowers finished 2024 as the 17th-highest scoring non-QB skill player, while fellow volume TE Trey McBride ranked 28th, illustrating how the bonus inflates elite tight ends. Strachan highlighted Bowers’ 24% target share and consistent red-zone usage, traits that translate directly into premium scoring. He urged drafters to take Bowers earlier than standard-format ADP, arguing that the positional edge he provides is worth the early-round cost.

Tom Strachan said that pocket passers such as Matthew Stafford should only be drafted in best ball if you are stacking them with their pass catchers. Strachan cited 2024 data showing 72 QB games of 25+ fantasy points; 35 featured at least 30 rushing yards, but of the remaining 37 non-rushing spikes, 28 came with 300+ passing yards. Without rushing production, Stafford’s path to a ceiling week is multiple touchdown passes and heavy volume, production that simultaneously boosts Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and the rest of the Rams receiving corps. Strachan therefore views Stafford as a correlation-dependent pick whose value rises sharply when drafted alongside his weapons.

Tom Strachan knocked Devin Neal’s prospects, pointing to the Saints’ post-minicamp addition of Cam Akers as evidence the rookie is not ready. Neal’s ADP slid 11 spots to 215, and Strachan doubts he earns more than gadget touches behind Akers and incumbent starter Alvin Kamara. While Neal’s explosive-play rate (15% 20-yard runs at Kansas) is intriguing, Strachan believes he is a redraft stash only if Kamara misses time.

Tom Strachan urged drafters to fade Anthony Richardson after a 15-spot ADP fall to 201. Richardson’s 47.7% completion rate in 2024 puts him in historically disastrous company—only JaMarcus Russell (47.8%) and Tim Tebow (48.2%) have been that inaccurate on 250+ dropbacks since 2006, and both were out of the league within two seasons. Strachan added that Richardson is still rehabbing his throwing-shoulder injury while Daniel Jones has reportedly closed the competition. Best-ball managers chasing upside should pivot elsewhere given Richardson’s floor is a zero.

Tom Strachan defended Rashee Rice’s move into the late-second round (ADP 22.4). Before tearing his ACL in Week 3, Rice owned a 33% target share—higher than every WR except Malik Nabers and Cooper Kupp—and averaged WR5 scoring in half-PPR. Strachan concedes that Xavier Worthy’s development and Hollywood Brown’s return add competition, but he still projects Rice for a team-leading 25% target share thanks to Patrick Mahomes’ historical preference for trusted intermediate options. Even a 10% target-share haircut would keep Rice in the WR1 conversation in KC’s top-3 passing offense, justifying the aggressive cost in tournament formats.

Tom Strachan advised taking Daniel Jones at his newly risen 197 ADP because Colts insiders believe he is the front-runner to start Week 1. Catchable-target data from Fantasy Points showed Jones’ 2024 Giants ranked 10th in that metric, while Anthony Richardson’s Colts were dead last with 16% fewer catchable throws than the next-worst team. Strachan argued that Shane Steichen’s up-tempo scheme plus Jonathan Taylor’s strong YAC profile could buoy Jones’ weekly floors, making him an efficient QB3 in best-ball builds.

Tom Strachan noted that Calvin Austin has reportedly out-snapped rookie Roman Wilson with the Steelers’ starters, leading to a 15-pick ADP bump to 192. Austin produced 36-548-3 on limited volume last year and now gets a quarterback upgrade to Aaron Rodgers, whose career 7.5% TD rate to slot receivers fits Austin’s primary alignment. Strachan likes Austin as a late-round stack partner with Rodgers, projecting him for 80+ targets if the current depth-chart order sticks through camp.

Tom Strachan explained Travis Etienne’s 12-spot rise to 104 by noting Jaguars coaches have reiterated that Etienne will open camp as the RB1 despite Tank Bigsby’s better efficiency metrics in 2024 (4.8 YPC vs 4.1, higher juke rate). With rookie Bhayshul Tuten likely limited to change-of-pace snaps, Strachan projects Etienne to maintain a 60% touch share. Jacksonville’s up-tempo offense ranked 8th in neutral-situation pace last season, which Strachan says gives Etienne a strong floor/ceiling combo relative to his late-9th-round price.

Tom Strachan recommended scooping up Miles Sanders, whose Underdog ADP jumped 26 spots to 186 but is still 60-plus picks behind teammate Javonte Williams. Sanders and Williams have nearly identical contracts, yet Sanders has avoided major lower-body injuries and has taken most first-team reps at mandatory minicamp, per Cowboys beat reporter Nick Harris. Strachan believes a 35–40% backfield share for Sanders is realistic and would make him a smash at his current cost in Dallas’ top-10 scoring offense.

Tom Strachan acknowledged Aaron Rodgers’ 15-spot ADP rise to 183 but argued the market is still overconfident. Rodgers posted his worst completion rate since 2019 (61.3%) and lowest YPA of his starting career (6.5) last season, then moved to the AFC North where he faces two top-10 defenses and several projected low-tempo matchups. Strachan pointed out that Rodgers historically underperforms in shootouts and doesn’t add rushing production, making him a limited best-ball asset despite the brand name.

Tom Strachan cautioned drafters about chasing Nick Chubb’s 34-spot ADP jump (to 178). He emphasized that Chubb signed a league-minimum deal and is not guaranteed a 53-man spot while starter Joe Mixon (foot) is still expected back for camp. Chubb is coming off career lows across the board and now runs behind what Strachan calls “potentially the worst offensive line he’s ever played behind.” The tout sees more downside than upside and would only take Chubb as a last-round flyer, not at his new mid-round cost.

Tom Strachan said J.K. Dobbins’ ADP spike from 181 to 135 is warranted because Denver beat writers unanimously expect a three-man committee in which Dobbins handles third-down work and opens the season as the preferred goal-line back. Strachan noted Dobbins finished 4th among all RBs in PFF pass-block grade last year and is coming off career highs in carries (195), rushing yards (905), targets (38) and catches (32). He added a Fantasy Points Data study that ranked Dobbins 4th in yards per carry when first contact occurred 1+ yards past the line of scrimmage (7.50), trailing only Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. Given the Broncos’ inexperienced offense and likely negative game scripts, Strachan believes Dobbins’ receiving role gives him weekly spike-week appeal that is not fully priced into his current Underdog ADP.

Tom Strachan likes taking cheap shots on Roschon Johnson now that the Bears exited the draft with only DeAndre Swift competing for touches. Chicago’s offense is now coordinated by Ben Johnson, fueling dreams of a Lions-style dual backfield where Johnson could fill the David Montgomery power role, especially near the goal line. Although Roschon never topped 14.5 PPR points as a rookie, his price bakes in the risk, and Strachan noted Swift’s history of fading late in seasons. For a player going in RB4-RB5 territory, Johnson offers a clear path to volume if Swift underperforms or misses time.

Tom Strachan cautioned drafters not to forget Rachaad White just because the Buccaneers invested in Bucky Irving. White saw the ninth-most RB targets last year (56), tied Devin Achane for the position lead in receiving TDs (6), and posted a 44.6 % designed-target rate—second-highest among RBs. He also improved as a runner, setting career bests in success rate (50.7 %) and yards per carry (4.3). A new offensive coordinator may tweak things, but Strachan doubts they will abandon the screen game that suited White so well. Even if Irving takes early-down work, White retains high-end PPR flex value and massive contingent upside.

Tom Strachan argued Will Shipley is an underrated flier because historical data shows RBs coming off 400-plus touches—or 1,500 rushing yards—often underperform the following year, a direct reference to Saquon Barkley. Shipley is the clear RB2 in Philly with only A.J. Dillon behind him, and Dillon missed all of 2024 with a neck injury and has looked sluggish for years. The Eagles let Kenneth Gainwell walk, signaling confidence in Shipley. Though his NFL sample is limited to garbage-time playoff bursts of 16 and 57 yards, Strachan thinks the coaching staff values him enough that he could inherit Barkley’s role if the veteran wears down.

Tom Strachan reminded listeners that Zach Charbonnet finished top-8 in three of four games with 15+ touches last year, exploding for 38.3 PPR points as the RB1 in Week 14. He was 12th in yards per target (7.39) and caught 91.3 % of his passes, the fourth-best rate among backs with 25+ targets. New Seahawks QB Sam Darnold peppered Aaron Jones with 59 targets last season, hinting Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker will be heavily involved through the air. With Seattle signaling a shift toward a more run-heavy approach, Strachan sees Charbonnet as having weekly flex value and true RB1 upside should Walker miss time.

Tom Strachan urged managers to re-visit MarShawn Lloyd, noting the Packers ran on 49.3 % of snaps last season and fed Josh Jacobs 20.6 touches per game. After Week 10 Jacobs never dipped below 17 touches, but Green Bay still cycled through Emanuel Wilson and Christopher Brooks for 117 carries combined—proof they want a secondary option. Lloyd’s rookie season was derailed by a hamstring strain, ankle sprain, and emergency appendectomy, but camp buzz was glowing before those setbacks. Now penciled in as RB2, Lloyd could siphon early-down work to keep Jacobs fresh and carries real league-winning upside if Jacobs goes down on the NFL’s run-centric offense.

Tom Strachan highlighted that Minnesota surrendered scarce draft capital for Jordan Mason instead of waiting on a rookie dart, a clue they value him. Mason forced missed tackles at the sixth-highest rate among RBs in 2024 and averaged the seventh-best yards per carry on zone runs—exactly the scheme Kevin O’Connell leans on. With Aaron Jones frequently nicked up (only two 20-touch games in his last five of 2024), Strachan envisions Mason stepping into early-down and goal-line work if/when Jones is sidelined. At his current late ADP, Mason is Strachan’s favorite sleeper but he warned he would fade if the price climbs too high.

Tom Strachan called Rico Dowdle a priority deep stash after he landed in Carolina. Dowdle was Dallas’s most efficient runner last year, piling up the fifth-most rushing yards league-wide from Week 10 on and finishing as a top-24 back in half of his games. The Panthers just extended Chuba Hubbard, but if Hubbard misses time Strachan thinks Dowdle could thrive behind what he labeled a ‘sneaky good’ run-blocking line in a young, ascending offense. He noted that Dallas chose Javonte Williams over Dowdle in free agency despite Dowdle outperforming Williams in multiple metrics, underscoring that Carolina may have quietly secured a bargain backup with proven NFL production.

Tom Strachan admitted he was ‘out’ on Austin Ekeler last season but is reversing course after reviewing the numbers. Even in a down year, Ekeler posted the 12th-most receiving yards among RBs (366) while ranking only 31st in routes run, translating to elite efficiency: 11.4 % target share (7th) and 8.93 yards per target (4th). Washington surprisingly passed on all high-profile free-agent or rookie backs, so the only real competition is Brian Robinson. Strachan argues that Ekeler’s proven pass-catching plus the Commanders’ lack of additions makes him a value PPR weapon who can flirt with RB2 production and offer contingent RB1 upside if Robinson falters.

Tom Strachan recommended stashing Ray Davis because of the growing contract impasse between the Bills and James Cook that Adam Schefter reported. While Cook was present at mandatory minicamp, Schefter ‘didn’t see a path to this being resolved anytime soon,’ leaving room for a potential hold-in or reduced camp reps. Davis already flashed as a rookie with five top-24 weekly finishes, catching 15-of-16 targets, and logging the third-most rookie RB touches (113) despite Sean McDermott’s notorious reluctance to lean on first-year backs. Strachan believes that workload plus Davis’s receiving chops position him for a significant bump in 2025 if Cook’s situation drags out or injuries strike.

Tom Strachan said Tyler Allgeier should go several rounds earlier because the market is under-pricing his upside. Allgeier is being drafted after 15 other NFL RB2s even though the gap between him and Bijan Robinson is the eighth-largest RB1/RB2 ADP delta. Strachan pointed to Allgeier’s 2024 efficiency—10th in explosive run rate and 7th in duke rate—as proof he is more than a plodder. Over the last two seasons Allgeier logged six top-36 weekly finishes, so he can already fill a flex spot. If Bijan were to miss time, Strachan thinks Allgeier would instantly rank as a weekly RB1 given Atlanta’s run-heavy philosophy. He called Allgeier a priority stash in dynasty, best ball, and redraft formats.