Tony Farmer advised taking the Dolphins at 25-to-1 on Bet365 to finish with the NFL’s worst record. He argued the wager hinges on two big red flags: (1) Tua Tagovailoa’s extensive concussion history paired with a deteriorating offensive line after Terron Armstead’s retirement and a second-year left-tackle who graded in the 40s by PFF; and (2) a locker-room cloud that includes ongoing Tyreek Hill drama and questions about Mike McDaniel’s job security. Farmer believes a single Tua injury flips Miami from a middling roster to Zach Wilson leading a bottom-three offense, making the long number attractive if you ‘simulated the season 25 times’.

Tony Farmer advised bettors to fade Josh Allen’s current +550 to +600 MVP price. Farmer pointed out that Allen’s traditional passing numbers pulled back last season, making it unlikely that voters reward a similar statistical line two years in a row. While acknowledging Allen’s dual-threat impact, Farmer believes narrative fatigue and the difficulty of going back-to-back after already winning the award make the implied 15–17% probability too steep. He prefers allocating bankroll elsewhere in preseason awards markets.

Tony Farmer recommended two Garrett Wilson props: over 925 receiving yards at ‑110 (Bet365) and an alternate 1,250-plus yards at +550 (FanDuel). Wilson has already cleared 1,040 yards in each of his first three seasons despite catching passes from Zach Wilson, Mike White, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle and a diminished Aaron Rodgers. Farmer called new starter Justin Fields an unquestionable upgrade, pointing to Darnell Mooney’s 1,000-yard campaign and DJ Moore’s near-1,400 yards with Fields in Chicago as proof the quarterback can feed a WR1. With better QB play and Wilson’s established floor, Farmer expects another statistical jump and likes both overs.