Tyler Duke recommended taking the hometown narrative on Xander Schauffele via a +160 top-ten ticket. The San Diego native closed 2025 with a win in Japan after battling injury most of the season and now badly wants his home event. Duke’s 24-round model lists him 8th thanks to a balanced profile (13th in SG: Total) that mitigates Torrey’s varied challenges—distance, long-iron approaches and touchy Poa greens. Recent results at Torrey show he’s close, and Duke sees the low-risk top-ten market as the best way to capitalize on both form and motivation.

Tyler Duke advised bettors to play Cameron Young at +375 for a top-five. Young broke through with his first win in 2025 and enters 2026 with the Tour’s 2nd-best mark in Strokes Gained: Total. Though he has only two prior Farmers starts, his elite driving distance fits Torrey’s ‘let it fly’ ethos, and Duke’s model ranks him No. 1 overall. With the South Course demanding both length and precise long irons, Duke believes the combination of statistical profile and improving win equity makes the +375 top-five price fair.

Tyler Duke flagged +240 for a J.J. Spaun top-ten as a smart play. Spaun, now ranked seventh in the world, shook off some early rust in Hawaii but still enters Torrey with the Tour’s 2nd-best Strokes Gained: Approach number over the last 24 rounds. Duke’s model slots him 4th overall, and he finished T15 here a year ago when his rise was just beginning. Given Torrey’s emphasis on long-iron accuracy and scrambling—both Spaun strengths—Duke believes a repeat or better is likely, making the +240 payout appealing.

At +3200, Maverick McNealy is Tyler Duke’s favorite sleeper outright. The analyst expects ‘a big year’ from McNealy, who keeps inching up the OWGR and owns multiple solid showings at Torrey. McNealy’s greatest weapon—elite putting on Poa—is magnified on Torrey’s bumpier late-afternoon surfaces where recent champions have led the field in SG: Putting. Although Duke’s model places him 18th (distance and approach numbers are good but not elite), the putting edge and steady form give McNealy legitimate win equity at 32-to-1.

Tyler Duke suggested taking the conservative route with Patrick Cantlay at +220 for a top-ten finish. Cantlay opened his season with another strong result at The American Express despite a cold putter—a continuation of last year’s trend. While his Farmers resume is poor (three lackluster starts), Duke noted that Cantlay contended at the 2021 U.S. Open on the same South Course layout and still ranks 12th in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds. With putting volatility the main concern, Duke prefers the top-ten market, arguing that Cantlay’s tee-to-green consistency provides a high floor while still offering almost 2-to-1 return.

Calling him ‘too long at +2900,’ Tyler Duke recommended an outright ticket on Hideki Matsuyama. The Japanese star opened 2026 with a strong showing in Hawaii just a month removed from beating a world-class field in the Bahamas. Torrey Pines has treated him well in the past—even if the trophy is still missing—and Poa happens to be his best putting surface. Duke highlighted Matsuyama’s 6th-place ranking in Proximity from 200+ yards, a metric he weights 10% because long-iron approaches dominate the South Course. Despite a modest 30th position in Duke’s overall model, the analyst believes course history, current form and a plus fit for his long-iron prowess make the +2900 outright number a steal.

Tyler Duke advised bettors to grab +455 on Si Woo Kim finishing inside the top five. Kim arrives on a heater—T4, 3rd, T11 and T6 in his last four worldwide starts—thanks largely to elite approach play. He currently ranks 1st on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, a stat Duke weights at 15% because Torrey’s greens are hard to hit and close approaches are at a premium. Although Kim’s course history is merely ‘solid but unspectacular,’ Duke believes the current ball-striking surge more than offsets that. With scrambling (10% weight) also a Kim strength and his confidence sky-high, Duke sees a realistic path to a podium finish.

Tyler Duke circled Chris Gotterup at +270 for a top-ten as one of his favorite value plays. The recent Sony Open champion can finally unleash his 9th-ranked driving distance at Torrey after navigating the tighter Waialae fairways. Gotterup placed T25 here last year, and Duke notes that the South Course sets up perfectly for aggressive drivers who do not fear the rough. Although the 24-round model only puts him 38th overall—dragged down by poor Poa putting splits—Duke believes improved form and a layout that rewards length outweigh the putting red flag. He expects Gotterup to gain strokes off the tee and with long irons (Proximity 200+ yards counts 10% in the model), making the +270 top-ten number attractive.

Tyler Duke urged bettors to grab the +850 price on Max Homa for a top-five finish. Homa already owns a win at Torrey (2023) and just flashed sharp ball-striking at PGA West. Duke’s model ranks him 2nd this week, boosted by Homa’s No. 2 ranking in Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa—critical on Torrey’s notoriously bumpy greens. The analyst added that Homa ‘finally sees the light at the end of the tunnel’ after a long slump, and that a familiar, confidence-inducing venue is an ideal springboard. With distance still helpful but the short game increasingly decisive among recent winners, Duke believes Homa’s elite Poa putting plus revived tee-to-green form justify the top-five wager.

Tyler Duke recommended taking Pierceson Coody at +6200 to win the Farmers Insurance Open, pointing to several converging signals. Coody opened 2026 with T13 and T18 finishes on shorter layouts that muted his length, yet Torrey Pines demands exactly what he does best—launch it. Duke reminded readers that the South Course averages 7,700 yards with razor-thin fairways but few forced lay-ups, rewarding distance even if players miss half the fairways. Coody sits 2nd on Tour in greens-in-regulation percentage and grades 8th in Duke’s weighted model, which gives 15% weight each to SG: Total, SG: Approach, Driving Distance and Poa putting. With form trending up and a course that accentuates his length plus high GIR profile, Duke sees real breakout potential and labeled the +6200 outright number as mis-priced.