Tafur took Houston +3, stating he’s bullish on C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and a much-improved Texans defense. He downplayed the loss of Joe Mixon, noting that replacement backs can still churn out 4 YPC in Bobby Slowik’s scheme. Calling Los Angeles an overachiever whose quarterback “gets epidurals,” Tafur sees the Texans as the sharper side.

Tafur played Green Bay ‑2.5, hyping the Micah Parsons acquisition. The Packers ranked 21st in four-man pressure rate last season (29.6 %), while Parsons leads the NFL with 335 pressures since 2021 and will draw double teams that free a solid supporting cast. Green Bay allowed only a 4.4 % sack rate versus blitzes (third-best), critical against a Lions defense that blitzed 38 % of snaps. He thinks Detroit’s coaching and O-line shakeups start 0-1.

Tafur laid 2.5 with San Francisco, noting Brock Purdy’s 3-0 career mark at Lumen Field. The 49ers know Sam Darnold’s tendencies intimately, and Seattle is dealing with a new OC, a new QB, and linebacker depth issues. He trusts Purdy, George Kittle, and a rejuvenated Christian McCaffrey to out-score any run-heavy plan the Seahawks try to establish.

Tafur scooped up Tennessee +8. Rookie QB Cam Ward showed creativity and poise during preseason despite a bare-bones supporting cast, and the Titans fortified their offensive line to lean on the run game and shorten contests. He respects Denver’s defense and Bo Nix’s weapons but worries the Broncos are reading their own press clippings, making the full touchdown plus a hook too generous.

Tafur laid the field goal with Pittsburgh, arguing the Steelers know every Justin Fields limitation after last season’s practices and believe Mike Tomlin will dial up pressures and spies to keep him from freelancing. The Jets just lost RG Alijah Vera-Tucker to a serious arm injury, further tilting the trenches toward T.J. Watt and company.

He grabbed Carolina +3.5 (and +155 ML), pointing to the league-high $98 million the Panthers have sunk into their offensive line. Tafur expects those big paychecks to open rushing lanes against a middling Jaguars front and buy Bryce Young enough time. He doubts Trevor Lawrence will look like a Liam Coen masterpiece right away, forecasting a one-score game the Panthers can steal.

Tafur backed Miami +1, predicting Tua Tagovailoa will reconnect with Tyreek Hill on go routes. Hill produced 13 TDs on 27 such catches in 2022-23 but none last year; the Colts allowed 33 yards per reception on go routes in 2024, second-worst. With rebuilt offensive and defensive lines, Tafur expects the Dolphins to out-muscle Indy and spoil the first home game of the Daniel Jones era.

Tafur took Cleveland +5.5, reminding readers that Zac Taylor is 1-5 in season openers and that Cincinnati again funneled cap space into receivers while neglecting the defense before even handing Trey Hendrickson a raise. He labeled Kevin Stefanski an “underrated genius,” trusts fresh-legs Joe Flacco, and thinks a near-touchdown road spread is unwarranted.

Tafur is on Kansas City ‑3 in Sao Paulo. He noted OC Matt Nagy’s offseason mandate to revive the deep passing attack after Patrick Mahomes hit a career-low 10.7 % of throws 20+ yards in 2024. Rookie LT Josh Simmons should give Mahomes more time, while Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown face a Chargers secondary that surrendered a league-high 13 touchdowns on passes 15+ yards. With Rashawn Slater lost for the season, Tafur expects Justin Herbert to be under duress and the Chiefs to begin another Super Bowl push.

Vic Tafur laid the 8.5 with Philadelphia, arguing the Cowboys’ defense will crater without Micah Parsons. He cited TruMedia splits showing Dallas ranked No. 1 in EPA per play with Parsons on the field over the past four seasons but plummeted to second-worst when he sat. Tafur also called Dallas “soft in the trenches” and pointed out Nick Sirianni’s perfect 4-0 Week 1 record, predicting it moves to 5-0 on Thursday night.