VSIN Host called Kai Kara-France his "dark horse" of the card and is taking the +200 money-line. In his model, the fight is a virtual coin-flip, giving Kara-France a hair over 50 % win probability. The edge comes from several data points: Kara-France averages twice as many knockdowns as Alexandre Pantoja, carries noticeably more one-punch power, and is the younger, rangier fighter. Meanwhile, Pantoja’s head-strike defence is a glaring liability—he absorbs clean shots far too often, which is dangerous against a power hitter who is willing to throw in volume. Because the host sees real finishing upside and physical advantages, he believes the current plus-money tag is mis-priced value.