Warren Sharp advised fading Bucky Irving at his current top-10 running-back ADP, citing multiple workload and efficiency red flags. Irving only became Tampa’s starter after Rachaad White’s Week 16 fumble and, at 206 pounds, is unlikely to flirt with 300 carries. Sharp expects Baker Mayfield to continue leaning on a four-deep receiving corps that limits running-back targets, dampening Irving’s PPR floor. The offensive ecosystem also took hits: offensive coordinator Liam Cohen departed, and All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs will miss at least the first month. Sharp argued those changes, combined with Mayfield’s inevitable touchdown-rate regression, leave Irving projecting closer to 15 touches per game than a true bell-cow role. Unless his price drops a full round, Sharp believes drafters are paying for a ceiling that volume metrics simply do not support.

Warren Sharp said De'Von Achane has a realistic path to finishing as the overall RB1 in 2025. He pointed to Miami’s offseason focus on shoring up the interior line and Austin Jackson’s health as the key variables. With Jackson on the field last year Achane logged 92 carries at a 43.5 % success rate and a 14.1 % explosive-run rate, numbers that fell to 36.9 % and 7.2 % on 111 carries without him. Sharp expects Mike McDaniel to fix a ground game that ranked 29th in EPA per rush, noting that even in a "down" season Achane still produced top-five running-back numbers purely through elite receiving efficiency. After a high-ankle sprain suppressed Weeks 1-5 to 3.3 YPC, Achane rebounded to 4.9 YPC and 3.2 yards after contact from Week 7 onward. If healthier blocking aligns with his already top-tier pass-game usage, Sharp believes Achane smashes his late-Round-2 price and contends for the No. 1 spot at the position.

Warren Sharp highlighted Keon Coleman as his favorite way to get cheap exposure to Buffalo’s passing game. With Stefon Diggs now a Patriot and only rumors linking the Bills to veterans like Terry McLaurin, Sharp sees an open runway for Coleman to seize an outside role immediately. The rookie’s current ADP places him in the WR60 range, a price Sharp considers a steal given Josh Allen’s league-leading deep-ball aggressiveness and the lack of established target competition beyond Dalton Kincaid. Sharp conceded Coleman will be volatile week-to-week—he called him a "wide-receiver-five boomer-bust type"—but noted that the same volatility won Gabe Davis managers several DFS and best-ball tournaments in past seasons. In shallow season-long leagues Coleman is a late bench stash; in best ball he’s a priority pick any time he slips past Round 13.

Warren Sharp labeled James Cook a fade at his mid-third-round price, stressing that the Bills back led the entire league in touchdowns over expectation in 2024 while actually seeing fewer total touches than the year before. Buffalo’s commitment to a multi-back rotation—Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis are expected to siphon short-yardage work—caps Cook’s ceiling, especially since he has yet to develop into the high-volume receiver many projected out of Georgia. Sharp believes the Bills’ scheme volatility mirrors Baltimore’s but without a Derrick Henry-type goal-line hammer, meaning Cook’s scoring chances are likely to fall back toward the 6-8 TD range. Without that outlier production, Cook profiles as a low-end RB2 rather than the RB1 upside the market is pricing in.

Warren Sharp cautioned against treating Bryce Young’s late-season rushing outburst as the new normal. From Weeks 13-18 Young trailed only Josh Allen in fantasy points generated on the ground, but Sharp noted four of Young’s rushing touchdowns came above expectation and none were designed QB runs. He called the bump “static rather than sticky,” pointing out that Young is mobile, not a true Konami quarterback. With Carolina’s defense beefed up against the run and a healthier offensive line, Sharp anticipates a more balanced, slower-paced attack that will limit scramble opportunities. He still views Young as a fine QB2 flier at his current ADP but warned that ranking him inside the top-12 on the assumption of repeat rushing production is a leak in process.

Warren Sharp argued that drafters are still sleeping on Chuba Hubbard’s 2025 value. Hubbard finished 2024 fourth in rushing yards over expected per carry and first in rate of runs over expectation, showing the kind of down-to-down consistency Sharp cares about more than the occasional long run. Carolina quietly rewarded him with a three-year, $33 million extension, a signal the staff still views him as the offensive focal point despite adding only low-cost depth in Rico Dowdell. PFF ranks the Panthers’ line 10th overall and even better as a run-blocking unit, giving Hubbard cleaner lanes than he had last season. Sharp expects Dave Canales to scale Hubbard’s workload back from the extreme injury-induced 2024 spike but still projects 16-18 touches per week with goal-line work, a volume profile not baked into his current late-sixth/early-seventh-round ADP. The comparison he made was “James Conner–style reliability without the brand-name premium,” making Hubbard a rock-solid RB2 in both best ball and season-long formats.

Warren Sharp ranked Kenneth Walker III as his RB12 and the lone Seahawks skill player worth proactive drafting. He expects Clint Kubiak’s arrival to crank up outside-zone usage, a perfect fit for Walker’s skill set: the back has averaged 4.7 yards per carry on outside-zone runs versus only 3.8 on all other concepts in his career. Sharp acknowledged Walker’s spotty health record—he already missed OTAs—but still projects him for feature-back volume because Sam Darnold will lean on play-action and the offensive line profiles better in run blocking than pass protection. Walker’s big-play profile, improved schematic fit, and minimal target competition in the backfield give him borderline RB1 upside at an ADP that prices him as a mid-range RB2.

Warren Sharp said he has slid Zay Flowers down his boards after a deeper Ravens study. The best fantasy finish for any Baltimore wideout in the Lamar Jackson era is WR23 (Hollywood Brown in 2021), and Flowers managed only WR32 last year even though his quarterback tossed 41 touchdowns. Sharp pointed to a historically run-heavy approach plus two target-hog tight ends that siphon red-zone looks. With just "one football to go around," Sharp believes Flowers’ talent is undeniable—he routinely scares corners with his vertical speed—but the offensive ecosystem simply does not produce top-20 wide-receiver seasons. He is still draftable around WR40-45, yet Sharp cautioned against expecting a breakout unless the Ravens fundamentally change their pass mix.

Warren Sharp doubled-down on Derrick Henry’s scoring upside, stressing that Lamar Jackson registered zero carries inside the five-yard line last season. That vacates virtually every goal-to-go rush for Henry, whom Sharp projects to capture "90-plus percent" of Baltimore’s goal-line attempts. He reminded listeners that running-back receptions have fallen six straight years league-wide, which places an even bigger premium on touchdown backs. Henry’s burst remains intact—he produced more 20-yard gains than Saquon Barkley in 2024—and Next-Gen tracking still grades his speed and yards-after-contact among the league’s best. Paired with Jackson’s option gravity that forces lighter boxes, Sharp views Henry as a top-five fantasy back whose age concerns are overblown because the underlying efficiency never dipped.

Warren Sharp dismissed worries about Derrick Henry turning 31, saying he would project the veteran for roughly 17 rushing touchdowns in Todd Monken’s offense. Henry’s long-speed and yards-after-contact metrics have barely budged over the last three seasons even while Tennessee cratered to bottom-five in yards before contact, suggesting no real efficiency decline. Now he joins a Ravens unit that ranked No. 1 in EPA per drop-back and No. 2 in rushing last year, with Lamar Jackson’s option gravity opening wider lanes than Henry has seen since 2020. Sharp emphasized that age only matters when efficiency dips, and all the data point the other way. The takeaway: Henry remains a league-winning RB1 in both season-long and best-ball formats despite the birth-certificate panic.

Warren Sharp said he is happily scooping either Josh Downs or Michael Pittman wherever they fall, but Downs is the one he grabs most often. Current ADPs treat the Colts’ unsettled quarterback situation—Anthony Richardson’s injury recovery and rumors that Daniel Jones could start early—as purely negative, yet Sharp argues uncertainty is already priced in as both wideouts slide into the WR40-50 range. He pointed out that Jones once funneled 140 targets to Wandale Robinson and sees a similar low-aDOT safety-blanket role for Downs, who commanded a 21 % target share as a rookie despite Richardson logging only four games. Sharp believes that share is Downs’ floor, not ceiling, in Shane Steichen’s motion-heavy attack, making him a low-cost PPR accumulator with spike potential if Indianapolis’ offensive line stays healthy.

Warren Sharp recommended taking Tyler Allgeier in the closing rounds as cheap insurance behind Bijan Robinson. Allgeier has logged 586 combined rushes and targets in three seasons without a single fumble or drop—a stat Sharp believes earns major trust from Zac Robinson’s staff. Although the sophomore was phased out down the stretch in 2024, he has already shown 1,000-yard capability when given lead-back volume. Sharp views him as one of the few handcuffs who could step straight into 18-plus touches if Robinson misses time while still offering occasional goal-line usage in shootout scripts.

Warren Sharp called Darnell Mooney one of his favorite last-round darts in best-ball because the market is ignoring two real paths to ceiling. First, Mooney operates almost exclusively on the deep out and deep comeback routes that Michael Penix loves rifling—Sharp compared the rookie’s velocity to Colin Kaepernick’s and said those "missiles" fit Mooney’s route tree perfectly. Second, if Drake London misses any time, Mooney would absorb the vacated perimeter targets and could push for double-digit looks weekly. Sharp thinks that combination of spike-week volatility and hidden contingent volume is not priced into Mooney’s WR70-range ADP.

Warren Sharp pegged Drake London as a priority pick at the Round-1/2 turn because Atlanta’s first eight or nine games set up as weekly track meets. The Falcons draw nothing but competent opposing offenses, and their own defense has finished 19th, 29th, 23rd, 18th, and 23rd in scoring over the last five seasons—numbers Sharp sees repeating even after two front-seven draft picks. With gunslinger Michael Penix under center and an average target depth over 10 yards, Sharp expects a Jameis-Winston-style environment full of high play volume and deep shots. London and Bijan Robinson are locked in, but Sharp is also sprinkling cheaper Falcons like Darnell Mooney and even Kyle Pitts, forecasting multiple spike-weeks before the schedule tightens up. London’s combination of guaranteed targets and likely shootouts gives him top-five positional upside.

Warren Sharp remains bullish on Justin Fields despite questions about new coordinator Tanner Engstrand’s under-center scheme. Sharp cited the historical ‘Konami’ trend: 28 of 31 quarterbacks with at least 100 carries in a season since 2014 produced top-12 fantasy finishes. Fields easily clears that rushing threshold. Sharp acknowledged the downside—Fields ranks 35th in EPA per drop-back on under-center throws—but argued the lack of serious target competition behind Garrett Wilson and a pass-catching back in Breece Hall mean volume is safe even if real-life efficiency lags. The takeaway: Fields carries week-winning rushing upside and is worth targeting as an upside QB2 who can crack the top 10 if the schematic transition clicks.

Warren Sharp advised fading Xavier Worthy at his rising cost. Worthy failed to top 80 receiving yards in any 2024 regular-season game, and his average depth of target cratered from 11.9 yards (Weeks 1-10) to 7.5 down the stretch after he was forced into a Rashid Rice-style underneath role. Two of his three receptions of 25-plus yards came in the Super Bowl when the score was already out of hand—hardly predictive volume. Sharp noted that optimistic drafters are counting on Travis Kelce taking a back seat, but if that happens Rice is the likelier beneficiary. With the rookie’s current ADP sandwiched among proven wideouts Sharp trusts more, he is largely passing on Worthy in best-ball builds.

Warren Sharp urged drafters to buy Rashee Rice at his current ADP before it climbs. Sharp expects Kansas City to lean on 11-personnel and let a 35-year-old Travis Kelce operate as a complementary chess piece rather than the focal point. That structure funnels short-to-intermediate targets to Rice, who already flashed a strong underneath rapport with Patrick Mahomes last year. Sharp added that Rice’s offseason legal issue appears unlikely to result in a suspension, removing the biggest risk discounting his price. With the Chiefs finally healthy—Hollywood Brown, Isiah Pacheco, and Rice himself all missed chunks of 2024—Sharp projects the offense to rebound toward its 2018-22 scoring levels, giving Rice a realistic top-24 wide-receiver ceiling that is not priced into best-ball drafts.

Warren Sharp said Isiah Pacheco is one of his most-drafted running backs because the market is overreacting to last year’s injuries and the Chiefs’ two-season scoring lull. Pacheco handled 77 % of Kansas City’s running-back carries and 68 % of the routes during the playoff run, posted 20 power-situation attempts and 12 touchdowns in 2023, yet is still available in the fifth round of best-ball drafts. Sharp expects the offense to climb back toward the 2018-22 form that never finished worse than sixth in points per game, citing healthier skill players (Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, rookie burner Xavier Worthy) and Andy Reid’s consistently pass-heavy approach with Patrick Mahomes. In that environment Pacheco retains the clear early-down and goal-line role, offering both floor and ceiling well above his current ADP.

Warren Sharp called Jaylen Wright his favorite late-round best-ball target, noting 39.5 % exposure in more than 100 drafts. Wright is being selected as RB51 behind pure backups like Tyler Allgeier and Trey Benson, yet Sharp believes he offers both contingent and potential weekly value. Despite being hit at or behind the line on 56 % of his rookie carries, Wright still averaged 7.1 yards per rush when he reached the second level, ranking 16th in the league, and led all Dolphins backs in missed-tackle rate and explosive-run percentage. With Raheem Mostert’s 20-TD role vacated, only Alexander Mattison and sixth-round rookie Ali Gordon block him from splitting the backfield with Devon Achane. Sharp anticipates a noticeably better interior offensive line after Miami’s offseason investments in Austin Jackson and other veterans, giving Wright league-winning upside if Achane misses time while still providing spike-week potential on his own.

Warren Sharp said he is bullish on Jordan Love after a deeper dive into the quarterback’s 2024 portfolio. Sharp pointed out that in Love’s first five games—when he was healthy—the Packers registered a 60.8% drop-back rate and Love delivered weekly fantasy finishes of QB11, QB3, QB14, QB3 and QB12, mirroring the floor-plus-spike profile he showed in 2023. After Love suffered a groin injury in Week 8, Green Bay’s drop-back rate plunged to 51.1% from Week 9 on, and Love cracked the top-10 only once (QB10). Sharp argued the late-season downturn was driven by the injury, not scheme, and expects the Packers to return to a higher pass rate if Love stays healthy in 2024. That would put him firmly in the mid-QB1 conversation and make him a worthwhile target in the muddled mid-round quarterback tier for best-ball drafts and season-long leagues.

Sharp called Washington’s 87% fourth-down conversion rate in 2024 flat-out unsustainable. The Commanders converted 13-of-15 fourth-down runs without relying on the tush-push and Jaden Daniels posted early-2000s-level passing success in those situations. Sharp said those high-leverage plays will regress, leading to fewer points and making a 9.5 win total aggressive. He still likes the rookie-contract flexibility that let them add LT Laremy Tunsell and WR Deebo Samuel and praises Cliff Kingsbury’s horizontal attack, but overall he would lean under and views Washington as a classic regression candidate for bettors.

Warren Sharp ranked Denver’s offensive line second only to Philadelphia after combining yards-before-contact, short-yardage conversion, pressure rate, and ESPN pass-block win metrics. He pointed out Denver’s rushing attack cratered specifically when Javonte Williams handled early downs; with Williams now in Dallas and a deeper backfield behind that elite line, early-down efficiency should spike. That keeps Sean Payton out of predictable passing situations and sets up Bo Nix for a true sophomore jump rather than a slump. Pair that with a top-tier defense and Sharp expects meaningful team improvement, making Nix an intriguing season-long and best-ball upside play and Denver a live over/futures candidate.

Warren Sharp said the market is still pricing 2025 Pittsburgh like last year’s Mason-Rudolph offense, ignoring the massive upgrade to Aaron Rodgers. Even though Sharp questions the long-term strategy, he believes Rodgers’ final-season motivation, the front office’s push for added pieces, and a generally solid roster make 8.5 wins too low. Sharp noted Rodgers’ 2024 decline was shaped by Achilles recovery and a bad Jets coordinator, factors that will not carry over. For a one-year window he would bet the over on Pittsburgh’s win total.

Warren Sharp positioned Jaden Daniels as a priority breakout pick for 2025 fantasy drafts. Daniels already produced Hall-of-Fame-level efficiency in leverage spots as a rookie, completing 88% of his fourth-down throws and leading an offense that converted 87% of all fourth-down attempts. Sharp expects an even bigger jump in Year 2 thanks to continuity with play-caller Cliff Kingsbury, ongoing VR-based practice reps that allow Daniels to rehearse hostile environments at hyperspeed, and roster upgrades that delivered Deebo Samuel at receiver and Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Sharp compared the situation to the sophomore explosions of Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, concluding that Daniels should be drafted aggressively in best ball and season-long formats as a potential top-five fantasy quarterback.

Warren Sharp warned bettors against assuming the Commanders will clear their 9.5-game win total in 2025. He noted that Washington’s 12-5 record was propped up by two extremely unstable edges: an NFL-record 87% fourth-down conversion rate (20-of-23, including 13-of-15 on runs and 7-of-8 passing without a single tush-push) and a stretch run in which the defense faced six consecutive backup or rookie quarterbacks yet still finished just 25th in overall defensive efficiency and 31st versus the run. The upcoming schedule flips from friendly to brutal—the Commanders have the league’s 3rd-worst net rest differential, will play three opponents off a bye, draw four games on short rest, and play six of their nine toughest games on the road. With fourth-down luck certain to regress and a harsher slate ahead, Sharp advised fading the over and looking to bet under 9.5 wins or even alternate unders.